Author Topic: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?  (Read 51785 times)

Offline woods170

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #40 on: 01/22/2023 02:52 pm »
Their realistic assessment is a first uncrewed lunar landing attempt in 2026, with the crewed landing NET late 2027/early 2028.

And yes, I'm willing to eat crow if my sources are wrong and the first uncrewed lunar landing attempt is earlier than 2026. Same for the first crewed landing it that happens before 2027.

Where does that put Dear Moon?

2025 At the very earliest. But 2026/2027 is more realistic, according to my sources at SpaceX.

The problem consists mainly of 2 things:
1. getting Starship flying operationally.
2. getting lots and lots and lots of flights to build confidence and reliability.

Both things combined will take several years. So much in fact that one of the SpaceX sources suggested that DearMoon might actually fly only AFTER the Artemis III crewed landing. But we'll see what happens. One thing is for sure: if DearMoon flies successfully BEFORE Artemis III, then a lot of people will start questioning the use of the government owned systems for bringing people to the Moon.

Offline woods170

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #41 on: 01/22/2023 02:54 pm »
[None of the sources I have spoken at SpaceX deem an uncrewed Moon landing attempt possible this year. 2024 Is out of the question as well. The very earliest they see it happen is 2025, and then only if everything goes OK. Which, needless to say, will probably not be the case.

Their realistic assessment is a first uncrewed lunar landing attempt in 2026, with the crewed landing NET late 2027/early 2028.

And yes, I'm willing to eat crow if my sources are wrong and the first uncrewed lunar landing attempt is earlier than 2026. Same for the first crewed landing it that happens before 2027.
   
I won't argue with you, but it seems likely to me that you will have to eat your crow.


We'll see. 2026 is just a short 3 years from now. Not a whole lot of time to get the HLS show on the road.

Offline eriblo

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Re: HLS Landing - this year(2023) -What would it take?
« Reply #42 on: 01/22/2023 03:05 pm »
]Expendable payload has been estimated as ~2x reusable which gives HLS + 2 tankers with quite a bit of margin for boiloff and residuals.

There's no way it takes an extra 100t of propellant to reuse a Starship.

1.2x I'd believe, but not 2x
It's not just the propellant. If SS is designed to be expendable it does not have TPS or Elonerons.
Do the math, you still don't get 2x
Have you done the math? flightclub.io has a Starship profile (120 t payload, 119 t + 250 t dry mass, 1200 t + 2970 t of propellant) that gets to a ~200 km orbit with 12 t of residuals/landing propellant.

Expending the booster gets ~50 t of residuals. Loading the booster fully with 3400 t gets ~87 t of residuals.

If we say that TPS + flaps + actuators + smaller batteries + payload bay is a conservative 23 t that would mean a stripped down tanker would deliver 230 t of propellant even before extending it and launching it heavy.

Offline pochimax

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #43 on: 01/22/2023 03:31 pm »
perhaps the 2023 date referred only to the anticipated calendar milestone. and spacex is way behind on their schedule

Offline alugobi

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #44 on: 01/22/2023 04:17 pm »
SpaceX is, generally speaking, way behind on Musk time.  We don't really know the actual schedule.

Offline Ben Baley

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #45 on: 01/24/2023 12:58 am »
I see a decent chance that SpaceX will start doing in orbit prop transfer tests in 2024.

Pulling that forward to 2023 might be possible but is very unlikely - depending on SpaceX priorities.

Prio 1 is obviously "Make orbit"

Prio X is "launch Starlinks"

Prio Y is "achieve full reusability"

Prio Z is "in orbit prop transfer ( depot )

SpaceX must Assign 2,3,4 to X,Y,Z

At first it looked like Y=2 X=3 Z=4

Then SpaceX started removing recovery hw from newly built prototypes, suggesting

X=2 Y=3 Z=4

But now they have welded the dispenser slots shut. That might just be to not infer with Prio 1 - make orbit.

Unless Prop Transfer suddenly is more important than both other goals, it likely won't start to happen this year. And there's good reason to get reusability - at least of booster - to work before starting simultaneous multi vehicle operations. You also want decent reliability and reliable engine restart in orbit already demonstrated.

This is a long roadmap. Even at SpaceX speed. ( which wasn't all that fast in 2022 )

I would make achieving booster reuse a seperate goal on par with launching starlink, but I would definitely put refueling ahead of full reuse launching starlink is definitely up there because it means the flights are effectively paying for themselves and you can use the vehicle to test refueling and/or EDL as a freebie. As long as nothing goes wrong on ascent I wouldn't be surprised to see at least some starlinks launched on the second flight with propellant transfer testing possible late this year.

Offline alugobi

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #46 on: 01/24/2023 06:38 pm »
Another consideration:  as long as there continues to be delay in building the high bays in Florida, the date of anything happening at that site gets pushed out. 

Offline Ben Baley

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #47 on: 01/24/2023 07:33 pm »
Another consideration:  as long as there continues to be delay in building the high bays in Florida, the date of anything happening at that site gets pushed out.

Not necessarily, according to Elon the first launches from Florida will be with vehicles produced in Boca Chica and barged over, I assume the engines will be installed in Florida, but SpaceX has shown that they are quite able to do that on a stand if required. So all that's really required for a launch from 39A is for the launch mount, tower, and GSE to be completed.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #48 on: 01/24/2023 07:45 pm »
Another consideration:  as long as there continues to be delay in building the high bays in Florida, the date of anything happening at that site gets pushed out.

Not necessarily, according to Elon the first launches from Florida will be with vehicles produced in Boca Chica and barged over, I assume the engines will be installed in Florida, but SpaceX has shown that they are quite able to do that on a stand if required. So all that's really required for a launch from 39A is for the launch mount, tower, and GSE to be completed.
Is there a good reason to not mount the engines at BC? I guess this may depend on whether SS and SH will be shipped horizontally or vertically.

Offline alugobi

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #49 on: 01/24/2023 07:50 pm »
Pretty skeptical that they're going to build a lander in BC.

Offline Ben Baley

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #50 on: 01/26/2023 01:38 am »
Another consideration:  as long as there continues to be delay in building the high bays in Florida, the date of anything happening at that site gets pushed out.

Not necessarily, according to Elon the first launches from Florida will be with vehicles produced in Boca Chica and barged over, I assume the engines will be installed in Florida, but SpaceX has shown that they are quite able to do that on a stand if required. So all that's really required for a launch from 39A is for the launch mount, tower, and GSE to be completed.
Is there a good reason to not mount the engines at BC? I guess this may depend on whether SS and SH will be shipped horizontally or vertically.

IIRC Elon indicated in a tweet that they would be transported vertically like Falcon boosters on a drone ship.

Transporting without engines installed is what I assumed would be done but on further consideration I'm not sure, two possible reasons to would be: 1 to avoid the risk of losing the vehicle and engines to an accident (sinking, blowing over, rogue wave) 2 to avoid damage to the engines from being exposed to the elements at sea.

Either way the point stands that completion of the high bay is not a launch requirement.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #51 on: 01/26/2023 03:36 am »
Pretty skeptical that they're going to build a lander in BC.
Why? HLS is just another SS variant. If they build and ship other variants there is no fundamental difference. HLS uncrewed demo needs at least three SS (one each of depot, tanker, HLS) plus one booster. Artemis III needs another HLS. Why is HLS special?

Online lykos

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #52 on: 01/30/2023 09:59 am »
70 m x 9 m Booster barged vertically like a F9-Booster? Over such a big distance? Plus SS plus HSL?
On which ships?

Online edzieba

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #53 on: 01/30/2023 01:07 pm »
70 m x 9 m Booster barged vertically like a F9-Booster? Over such a big distance? Plus SS plus HSL?
On which ships?
Same contractors that move larger and MUCH heavier items around on the regular, e.g. Roll-Lift (who SpaceX already contract with at BC).

Offline Ben Baley

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #54 on: 01/31/2023 02:12 am »
70 m x 9 m Booster barged vertically like a F9-Booster? Over such a big distance? Plus SS plus HSL?
On which ships?

Starship and super heavy are big but pretty light for their size, barges can carry a lot of weight. The height does make it a Less stable load but assuming it's firmly tied down an appropriately sized barge with the proper ballast should have no problem transporting a booster vertically.

Some numbers for reference

https://heartlandbarge.com/barge-weight-capacities-chart/

OCEAN DECK BARGES: APPROXIMATE S/T CAPACITY & FREEBOARD
BARGE SIZE   3′ FREEBOARD   5′ FREEBOARD
140’x 40’ x 9’           710 S/T.       385 S/T
155’ X 55’ X 9’   1080 S/T   585 S/T
160’ X 54’ X 12’   1905 S/T   1375 S/T
180’ X 54’ X 12’   2200 S/T   1600 S/T
200’x 50’ x 13’   2500 S/T   1820 S/T
260’ X 72’ X 16’   5692/5780 S/T AT LOADLINE   



Offline laszlo

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #55 on: 01/31/2023 03:40 pm »
Horizontal would be trivial for a ship and there's be plenty of room for a stretcher frame and cradle. Transport would be faster and safer. I wouldn't be surprised to see Elon change his mind about vertical transport. It's nothing compared to dumping composites and going with stainless steel.

SS - 50m long, 9m diameter, dry mass 100t
SH - 70m long, 9m diameter, dry mass 160t
USS Cole - 154m long, 18m beam, displacement 6,900t

Online edzieba

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #56 on: 01/31/2023 04:06 pm »
Upright transport is not an issue: that rig is 215m tall (3 times as tall as Super Heavy) and at nearly 30,000 tonnes is around 150 times heavier than Super Heavy. Super Heavy is a teeny tiny little shrimp in the world of large object transport.

Offline yg1968

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #57 on: 02/11/2023 02:25 am »
Their realistic assessment is a first uncrewed lunar landing attempt in 2026, with the crewed landing NET late 2027/early 2028.

And yes, I'm willing to eat crow if my sources are wrong and the first uncrewed lunar landing attempt is earlier than 2026. Same for the first crewed landing it that happens before 2027.

Where does that put Dear Moon?

2025 At the very earliest. But 2026/2027 is more realistic, according to my sources at SpaceX.

The problem consists mainly of 2 things:
1. getting Starship flying operationally.
2. getting lots and lots and lots of flights to build confidence and reliability.

Both things combined will take several years. So much in fact that one of the SpaceX sources suggested that DearMoon might actually fly only AFTER the Artemis III crewed landing. But we'll see what happens. One thing is for sure: if DearMoon flies successfully BEFORE Artemis III, then a lot of people will start questioning the use of the government owned systems for bringing people to the Moon.

It would be the other way around. If Dear Moon flies before HLS, a lot of people will be questioning SpaceX's commitment to HLS. Their contract says that HLS should be ready in 2025. That should be their priority, not Dear Moon.

In any event, this seems to contradict what Nick Cunnings is saying publicly, he is essentially saying that Starlink and Artemis are the first Starship missions:

Quote from: Marcia Smith
On panel abt Moon, Mars and Beyond, SpaceX’s Nick Cummings says first Starship launches will be for Starlink but can think of them as Artemis flights bc they’ll build reliability and reusability needed for HLS and more broadly sustainable exploration.

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1623737494054309888
« Last Edit: 02/11/2023 02:43 am by yg1968 »

Offline Oersted

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #58 on: 02/11/2023 08:30 am »
But surely there will be a circumlunar flight before a landing.

Online daedalus1

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Re: HLS Landing in 2023 - What would it take?
« Reply #59 on: 02/11/2023 09:28 am »
A miracle.

Tags: Starship HLS Artemis 
 

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