According to Wayne Hale in the NAC, they think SpaceX could even attempt a Moon landing this year??<snip>
Quote from: TrueBlueWitt on 01/18/2023 02:51 pmAccording to Wayne Hale in the NAC, they think SpaceX could even attempt a Moon landing this year??<snip>Stop right there. Wayne Hale is ill-informed in this case. Probably not his fault, but courtesy of someone at either NASA or SpaceX not updating the schedules.None of the sources I have spoken at SpaceX deem an uncrewed Moon landing attempt possible this year. 2024 Is out of the question as well. The very earliest they see it happen is 2025, and then only if everything goes OK. Which, needless to say, will probably not be the case.Their realistic assessment is a first uncrewed lunar landing attempt in 2026, with the crewed landing NET late 2027/early 2028.And yes, I'm willing to eat crow if my sources are wrong and the first uncrewed lunar landing attempt is earlier than 2026. Same for the first crewed landing it that happens before 2027.
The impatience of fandom knows no bounds.
given how optimistic Elon Time is,
In July 2010, Boeing stated that the capsule could be operational as early as 2015
Their realistic assessment is a first uncrewed lunar landing attempt in 2026, with the crewed landing NET late 2027/early 2028.And yes, I'm willing to eat crow if my sources are wrong and the first uncrewed lunar landing attempt is earlier than 2026. Same for the first crewed landing it that happens before 2027.
Quote from: TrueBlueWitt on 01/18/2023 02:51 pmAccording to Wayne Hale in the NAC, they think SpaceX could even attempt a Moon landing this year??<snip>Stop right there. Wayne Hale is ill-informed in this case. Probably not his fault, but courtesy of someone at either NASA or SpaceX not updating the schedules.
[None of the sources I have spoken at SpaceX deem an uncrewed Moon landing attempt possible this year. 2024 Is out of the question as well. The very earliest they see it happen is 2025, and then only if everything goes OK. Which, needless to say, will probably not be the case.Their realistic assessment is a first uncrewed lunar landing attempt in 2026, with the crewed landing NET late 2027/early 2028.And yes, I'm willing to eat crow if my sources are wrong and the first uncrewed lunar landing attempt is earlier than 2026. Same for the first crewed landing it that happens before 2027.
Forgetting the 2023 part, hypothetically, how many fully expendable (both Superheavy booster & Starship upper stage) launches would be needed to attempt a lunar landing of a stripped down HLS Starship?
]Expendable payload has been estimated as ~2x reusable which gives HLS + 2 tankers with quite a bit of margin for boiloff and residuals.
Quote from: eriblo on 01/21/2023 04:11 pm]Expendable payload has been estimated as ~2x reusable which gives HLS + 2 tankers with quite a bit of margin for boiloff and residuals.There's no way it takes an extra 100t of propellant to reuse a Starship.1.2x I'd believe, but not 2x
Quote from: InterestedEngineer on 01/21/2023 06:24 pmQuote from: eriblo on 01/21/2023 04:11 pm]Expendable payload has been estimated as ~2x reusable which gives HLS + 2 tankers with quite a bit of margin for boiloff and residuals.There's no way it takes an extra 100t of propellant to reuse a Starship.1.2x I'd believe, but not 2xIt's not just the propellant. If SS is designed to be expendable it does not have TPS or Elonerons.
...Do the math, you still don't get 2x