Total Members Voted: 91
Voting closed: 03/01/2023 09:39 pm
Someday Starship might fly regularly scheduled flights every hour for $2M.
This assumes that SpaceX has SH recovery working or are sure that it will be working by 2025. It does not assume SS recovery is working, but it does assume they are willing to eat much of the cost of lost SS as part of their SS recovery testing.
I think SpaceX price at what the market will bear. Current F9 prices could be lower, given the level of reuse they are achieving, but they donít need to be lower yet based on currently available competition. Price also wonít drop until some level of reuse is established.
I voted $50M-$70M. I guess that's the price that will maximize SpaceX's short-term profit and help them fund Mars missions. That price is low enough that they'd probably have the lowest price per kilogram of payload of any launcher. They'd probably also be cheaper per launch than all but the smallest launchers. It's also cheap enough that Falcon customers would probably be happy to switch - an alternate plan of raising Falcon 9 prices to force customers to switch would piss off customers. Much lower prices maintained for decades could pay off by expanding the market but Must wants to go to Mars ASAP so I expect that SpaceX will keep prices higher to pay for Mars quickly.
In 2025 I predict Starship will have a maturity somewhere between F9 Full-thrust and F9 Block-4. Starship(2nd-stage) recovery will be mostly successful, but the recovered Starships will still be closely inspected, require frequent refurbishment, and be reused relatively few times.This puts my vote at $70-100. I expect Starship will initially be sold as an alternative for F9-expended and Falcon-Heavy GTO missions (and will underbid Vulcan VC2), but that with limited flight rates SpaceX isn't going to feel any pressure to underbid their own F9 on RTLS/ASDS sized missions for flights as early as 2025.
There's also a chance that development has run into snags and delays and that SX won't be flying commercial payloads (other than HLS) at all.
On second thought I expect SpaceX's Starship prices to vary based on payload mass. Something like $30M for the first tonne to LEO and $1M for each tonne thereafter. This better matches what the competition charges.
Quote from: freddo411 on 01/15/2023 03:10 pmThere's also a chance that development has run into snags and delays and that SX won't be flying commercial payloads (other than HLS) at all.Why wouldn't they? The demand is there, and since they will be launching HLS they would want to get reliability down.