Author Topic: Will 2023 see as many launches as 2022?  (Read 1746 times)

Offline Vahe231991

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Will 2023 see as many launches as 2022?
« on: 12/01/2022 03:20 am »
The year 2022 is shaping up to be the first time in the history of spaceflight than more than 160 orbital launches have been conducted (the 1970s and 1980s would see more than 100 launches carried out per year, though lower than the number of orbital launches carried out in 2021). Given that SpaceX is at the forefront of privately funded US orbital flights, and China is now carrying out launches with immense frequency, is it possible that 2023 will be the second year in a row that more than 160 orbital launches are made?

Online freddo411

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Re: Will 2023 see as many launches as 2022?
« Reply #1 on: 12/01/2022 04:05 am »
The year 2022 is shaping up to be the first time in the history of spaceflight than more than 160 orbital launches have been conducted (the 1970s and 1980s would see more than 100 launches carried out per year, though lower than the number of orbital launches carried out in 2021). Given that SpaceX is at the forefront of privately funded US orbital flights, and China is now carrying out launches with immense frequency, is it possible that 2023 will be the second year in a row that more than 160 orbital launches are made?


It seems very likely.   SpaceX is talking about trying to reach 100 launches per year themselves.   Other launch providers seem posed to launch frequently (by their own standards).   

Will Kuiper launches materialize in 2023 ?  if so, that will up the pace.

China looks busy too.

Offline sanman

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Re: Will 2023 see as many launches as 2022?
« Reply #2 on: 12/01/2022 05:15 am »
It seems very likely.   SpaceX is talking about trying to reach 100 launches per year themselves.   Other launch providers seem posed to launch frequently (by their own standards).

But will there be multiple Starship launches within 2023?

What's the forecasted number of Starship launches for each of the coming years?


Offline jebbo

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Re: Will 2023 see as many launches as 2022?
« Reply #3 on: 12/01/2022 03:04 pm »
The year 2022 is shaping up to be the first time in the history of spaceflight than more than 160 orbital launches have been conducted (the 1970s and 1980s would see more than 100 launches carried out per year, though lower than the number of orbital launches carried out in 2021). Given that SpaceX is at the forefront of privately funded US orbital flights, and China is now carrying out launches with immense frequency, is it possible that 2023 will be the second year in a row that more than 160 orbital launches are made?

We are already at 168 orbital launch attempts (with 5 fails), and almost certainly will exceed 180 attempts (I'm projecting 184). So, two consecutive years above 160 seems very likely.

Next year will probably have fewer launches as the Starlink v1 constellation is mostly complete, but perhaps, other constellation launches will make  up for it

--- Tony

Edit: fixed the number of attempts; I misremembered as 164 not 168
« Last Edit: 12/02/2022 08:29 am by jebbo »

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Will 2023 see as many launches as 2022?
« Reply #4 on: 12/07/2022 07:02 pm »
The year 2022 is shaping up to be the first time in the history of spaceflight than more than 160 orbital launches have been conducted (the 1970s and 1980s would see more than 100 launches carried out per year, though lower than the number of orbital launches carried out in 2021). Given that SpaceX is at the forefront of privately funded US orbital flights, and China is now carrying out launches with immense frequency, is it possible that 2023 will be the second year in a row that more than 160 orbital launches are made?

We are already at 168 orbital launch attempts (with 5 fails), and almost certainly will exceed 180 attempts (I'm projecting 184). So, two consecutive years above 160 seems very likely.

Next year will probably have fewer launches as the Starlink v1 constellation is mostly complete, but perhaps, other constellation launches will make  up for it

--- Tony

Edit: fixed the number of attempts; I misremembered as 164 not 168
You do realize that the same day that you made your prediction SpaceX had a partial approval (7500 satellites) to start deploying Starlink v2.

 

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