First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?

[ugordan]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...

I am NOT a faboi of any company, I LOVE space, complete all space agencies and companies, amateurs organization, all...

But here there has been much pleasure in mockery and indifference to anything but the magic ship, of the star company....

Sure, you aren't... Remind me, again, how many posts did you make in various threads overjust  the last couple of days, praising the ultimate majesty of engineering that is the BE-4?

[Tywin]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...

I am NOT a faboi of any company, I LOVE space, complete all space agencies and companies, amateurs organization, all...

But here there has been much pleasure in mockery and indifference to anything but the magic ship, of the star company....

Sure, you aren't... Remind me, again, how many posts did you make in various threads overjust  the last couple of days, praising the ultimate majesty of engineering that is the BE-4?

YES, because I really believe that the New Glenn will be an amazing rocket, and even more important, Blue Origin is go to be a giant space company in the future...

Blue will be the other leg of the table that was missing in the US space industry, to dominate the world space for several more decades...


And bring an even greater era of splendor in the cislunar ERA we live in....

[dglow]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...

I am NOT a faboi of any company, I LOVE space, complete all space agencies and companies, amateurs organization, all...

But here there has been much pleasure in mockery and indifference to anything but the magic ship, of the star company....

Sure, you aren't... Remind me, again, how many posts did you make in various threads overjust  the last couple of days, praising the ultimate majesty of engineering that is the BE-4?

YES, because I really believe that the New Glenn will be an amazing rocket, and even more important, Blue Origin is go to be a giant space company in the future...

Blue will be the other leg of the table that was missing in the US space industry, to dominate the world space for several more decades...

Back to the subject of this poll: Starship will reach orbital velocity before New Glenn’s upper stage. Any real fan of Blue shouldn’t let that bother them in the least.

[Tywin]

Orbit is orbit, if the IFT-3 is the same profile that IFT-2, then is not orbit...


And this is a poll, nobody is bother...

[spacenut]

To me, SpaceX is trying to do a lot more than just reach orbit.  Hot staging, flips, landings.  Vulcan reached orbit, but the Superheavy booster completed it's mission through the second stage lighting and separation, so the Superheavy booster worked as a booster.  Flipping, sloshing, and exploding later didn't affect whether the second stage reached orbit.  Somehow the second stage didn't work right and it was destroyed before it could possibly hit somewhere in Florida.  Now, this is comparing with Vulcan.  New Glenn hasn't even tried yet. 

Is New Glenn going to try to land the booster?  Are they going to try to get the second stage to return in one piece? 

SpaceX from what I understand are going to try to boost back and land the booster in the Gulf.  Second stage will try to get through reentry and land in the ocean near Hawaii. 

This poll is only about who will reach orbit first.  Now is SpaceX going to be a true orbit if it doesn't completely circle the earth? 

Starthip 100-150 tons to orbit.  New Glenn 40 tons to orbit.  New Glenn compares to Falcon Heavy not Starship.  Starship compares to SLS for capability. 

To me SpaceX is trying to do far more than just reach orbit.   Don't know if Blue will try to do everything like SpaceX on one launch. 

Also, Blue is taking a very conservative approach it seems while SpaceX is trying different options to get more payload to orbit, like hot staging. 

[Tywin]

To me, SpaceX is trying to do a lot more than just reach orbit.  Hot staging, flips, landings.  Vulcan reached orbit, but the Superheavy booster completed it's mission through the second stage lighting and separation, so the Superheavy booster worked as a booster.  Flipping, sloshing, and exploding later didn't affect whether the second stage reached orbit.  Somehow the second stage didn't work right and it was destroyed before it could possibly hit somewhere in Florida.  Now, this is comparing with Vulcan.  New Glenn hasn't even tried yet. 

Is New Glenn going to try to land the booster?  Are they going to try to get the second stage to return in one piece? 

SpaceX from what I understand are going to try to boost back and land the booster in the Gulf.  Second stage will try to get through reentry and land in the ocean near Hawaii. 

This poll is only about who will reach orbit first.  Now is SpaceX going to be a true orbit if it doesn't completely circle the earth? 

Starthip 100-150 tons to orbit.  New Glenn 40 tons to orbit.  New Glenn compares to Falcon Heavy not Starship.  Starship compares to SLS for capability. 

To me SpaceX is trying to do far more than just reach orbit.   Don't know if Blue will try to do everything like SpaceX on one launch. 

Also, Blue is taking a very conservative approach it seems while SpaceX is trying different options to get more payload to orbit, like hot staging.

THAT always have been the definition of ORBIT...

And all the other specifications, and future goals,  are good for other thread, the poll, was very simple, reach orbit FIRST...

Will see...

[jamesborr]

I would agree with the purpose of this poll, but it also seems to be a bit similar to a prior "bragging rights" type of poll, i.e. what company first recovered a 1st stage booster, which was won by Blue Origin. However, I would argue that this event was not nearly as impactful as the subsequent Falcon 9 recovery which was far more "interesting" from a space launch perspective, and indeed, has yet to be equaled after all these years.

[dglow]

To me, SpaceX is trying to do a lot more than just reach orbit.  Hot staging, flips, landings.  Vulcan reached orbit, but the Superheavy booster completed it's mission through the second stage lighting and separation, so the Superheavy booster worked as a booster.  Flipping, sloshing, and exploding later didn't affect whether the second stage reached orbit.  Somehow the second stage didn't work right and it was destroyed before it could possibly hit somewhere in Florida.  Now, this is comparing with Vulcan.  New Glenn hasn't even tried yet. 

Is New Glenn going to try to land the booster?  Are they going to try to get the second stage to return in one piece? 

SpaceX from what I understand are going to try to boost back and land the booster in the Gulf.  Second stage will try to get through reentry and land in the ocean near Hawaii. 

This poll is only about who will reach orbit first.  Now is SpaceX going to be a true orbit if it doesn't completely circle the earth? 

Starthip 100-150 tons to orbit.  New Glenn 40 tons to orbit.  New Glenn compares to Falcon Heavy not Starship.  Starship compares to SLS for capability. 

To me SpaceX is trying to do far more than just reach orbit.   Don't know if Blue will try to do everything like SpaceX on one launch. 

Also, Blue is taking a very conservative approach it seems while SpaceX is trying different options to get more payload to orbit, like hot staging.

THAT always have been the definition of ORBIT...

And all the other specifications, and future goals,  are good for other thread, the poll, was very simple, reach orbit FIRST...

Will see...

<sigh>

@spacenut, it's very possible to 'reach orbit' (orbital velocity and a trajectory which would circle the planet) then choose to intentionally deorbit before going all the way around. Some of the most ambitious Nat Sec plans for Shuttle involved exactly this.

@Tywin, whatever turns your crank. I hope you WIN your poll.

[dglow]

I would agree with the purpose of this poll, but it also seems to be a bit similar to a prior "bragging rights" type of poll, i.e. what company first recovered a 1st stage booster, which was won by Blue Origin. However, I would argue that this event was not nearly as impactful as the subsequent Falcon 9 recovery which was far more "interesting" from a space launch perspective, and indeed, has yet to be equaled after all these years.

First post! Welcome to the forum.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Only 13 people got this one correct …

[Bob Shaw]

Starship has already achieved orbit several times. That orbit - like the STS ET - was carefully designed with a perigee below the surface of the Earth but was still orbital. SpaceX didn’t want to risk a potentially out of control Starship coming down at random and also wanted it to land close to pre positioned assets like the camera buoys. This is a feature, not a failure.

[Yiosie]

Starship has already achieved orbit several times. That orbit - like the STS ET - was carefully designed with a perigee below the surface of the Earth but was still orbital. SpaceX didn’t want to risk a potentially out of control Starship coming down at random and also wanted it to land close to pre positioned assets like the camera buoys. This is a feature, not a failure.

Jonathan McDowell estimated the perigee for Flight 6 to be above the Earth's surface:

https://planet4589.org/space/jsr/back/news.840.txt

Starship flight 6 was launched on Nov 19. The booster was waved off from a recovery attempt (due to a tower issue) and made a divert burn to a water splashdown. The ship reached an estimated 8 x 190 km x 26.2 deg orbit, the first time Starship has had positive perigee. A Raptor in-flight restart during descent raised the orbit to about 50 x 228 km, followed by entry over the Indian Ocean and splashdown on the ocean surface.

[eeergo]

You're only orbital if you're able to stay in orbit for a meaningful amount of time and fraction of the trajectory, with the appropriate energy. Otherwise you can be theoretically orbital-capable, but you certainly did not "achieve orbit". A pellet launched at 8 km/s at sea level is NOT orbital, even if it were launched in a long km-scale vacuum tube allowing it a longish trajectory and flight time.

Likewise, gas puffs in a particle accelerator are not in a hyperbolic orbit even if they have orders of magnitude more than the necessary speed/energy to be in one, because they're subject to other containing forces, such as the very containment fields that make them go in circles, or an arrestor absorbing block at the end of the facility in linear ones (aka beam dump absorber).

Of course, the direction you're following when in orbital velocity is not a minor consideration: if a sounding suborbital rocket launches straight up to over a couple thousand km, it will reach orbital velocity on its way down... yet is obviously not in orbit, and more importantly has no capability to reach it. This is done routinely in ICBM tests, and even scientific sounders by the way.

As for the STS ET: none of those were counted as orbital object, and indeed there was a full ATO "abort to orbit" mode in Shuttle operations, meaning it did NOT attain orbit upon ET separation.

Also, since you cite him, Dr McDowell has made it very clear a positive perigee an orbit does not make:

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1647649762722603008
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1643963478690914314
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1643962922849251329

[Tywin]

Only 13 people got this one correct …

Bingo, and many even attack to made the poll...

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

Well the "paper" rocket won...

[Tywin]

Oh no, just saw this pole...

NG was competing with FH.
Now it is competing with SS, and is woefully behind.

Maybe if you poll NG to orbit vs. SS to Mars you'll have a balanced poll...

Well the balance is not very well for the Mars SpaceX stuff right now...

But let's see in a future...

[Tywin]

Unless there is a major design flaw in Starship, I expect Starship will win this battle.

Well, the Starship V1 had NOT completed anything as it was designed and was even retired before reaching orbit...

[Metalskin]

Only 13 people got this one correct …

Bingo, and many even attack to made the poll...

I didn't attack the poll, I just think that it's not aligned with the goals of the two companies.

AFAICT Starship is more interested in landing the second stage than attaining orbit.
NG appears to be more focused on attaining orbit and sorting out reuse later.

So to say there is a competition and then to declare one a winner, is questionable when AFAICT, the two companies have different initial goals.

[Tywin]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge...

In charge of what? ULA was the primary launch provider for the U.S. Government, and ULA (plus many other USG contractors) were afraid that SpaceX would take away business from them, so they started an advertising campaign to discredit SpaceX. That isn't "laughing", that is how business works sometimes.

Those of us that have been supporting SpaceX since early on didn't know for sure that SpaceX would succeed, but we were cheering them on because if they DID succeed then it would change the launch industry for the better. Which they have.

...people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...

I have been on this forum since before the SLS was created, and I honestly don't know of anyone that has framed the Starship as a competitor to the SLS. If anything those of us that don't like the SLS do so because of the tremendous cost of the SLS, not because of some fictional competition with the Starship.

...and most of them have been wrong

You are the one that has been wrong about how you have been framing the above charges.

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

I have no idea what this means, and this is the silliest poll I've seen in quite a while, because Blue Origin is moving exceedingly slow, has hardly any production hardware ready for testing, and they themselves are projecting launching New Glenn no earlier than Q4 2023.

SpaceX has been producing higher and higher fidelity flight units of the Starship for the past year, with LOTS of testing, and it looks reasonable that they will launch in Q1 of 2023.

Yeah indeed silliest...

[jongoff]

Well, I have to say Blue definitely surprised me (and 93% of the voters in this poll).