Poll

First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?

New Glenn
13 (6.7%)
Starship
182 (93.3%)

Total Members Voted: 195

Voting closed: 10/15/2023 07:39 pm


Author Topic: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?  (Read 24966 times)

Offline Tywin

Well, let's see which of these monsters goes to orbit first...
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Offline zodiacchris

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #1 on: 10/11/2022 07:48 pm »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

Offline Tommyboy

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #2 on: 10/11/2022 07:50 pm »
At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #3 on: 10/11/2022 07:57 pm »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

Do you think Blue's factories are empty right now?

Prototypes on the ramp, if that is true...
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Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #4 on: 10/11/2022 07:59 pm »
At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.


People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge, people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...and most of them have been wrong...

Next year will be the cotton wool test...
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Offline Nomadd

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #5 on: 10/11/2022 08:05 pm »
At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.


People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge, people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...and most of them have been wrong...

Next year will be the cotton wool test...
People laughed at Bugs Bunny too. So what?
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline zodiacchris

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #6 on: 10/11/2022 08:06 pm »
Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #7 on: 10/11/2022 08:13 pm »
Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

They will both compete in the commercial market...

And it is the reliability, price and reusability of both rockets that matter, not the performance on paper...Shuttle echoes....
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Offline TrevorMonty

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #8 on: 10/11/2022 08:54 pm »
Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…
Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.



Online whitelancer64

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #9 on: 10/11/2022 09:19 pm »
*snip*
Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

New Glenn's payload to LEO is listed as 45,000 kg, although that number is from several years ago now, and it was widely thought to be sandbagged even then. Improvements to the BE-4 engine made over the past several years of development should push that over 50,000 kg fairly easily. AND that is while reusing the booster.

It's not that far off Falcon Heavy's maximum possible in expendable mode of 64,000 kg, and about double the Heavy's payload capability when it is fully recovered.

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.
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Online whitelancer64

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #10 on: 10/11/2022 09:27 pm »
Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Surfdaddy

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #11 on: 10/11/2022 10:12 pm »
Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

Online whitelancer64

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #12 on: 10/11/2022 11:02 pm »
Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

The time it took to get the first two engines was not a production problem, but largely was due to development taking much, much longer than initially anticipated.  Also, the Kent facility is not set up for assembly-line mass production. Huntsville is.

Blue Origin has to approach producing 40 BE-4s per year just to meet the demand that will be required of it from both New Glenn and Vulcan initial flights within the next couple of years. It will likely have to significantly exceed that in subsequent years, which is why they doubled their workforce.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #13 on: 11/30/2022 02:10 am »
Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

The time it took to get the first two engines was not a production problem, but largely was due to development taking much, much longer than initially anticipated.  Also, the Kent facility is not set up for assembly-line mass production. Huntsville is.

Blue Origin has to approach producing 40 BE-4s per year just to meet the demand that will be required of it from both New Glenn and Vulcan initial flights within the next couple of years. It will likely have to significantly exceed that in subsequent years, which is why they doubled their workforce.
Examples of the Raptor engine for the Starship, including initial flight-ready engines, have undergone smooth test runs in contrast to delays that the BE-4 engine faced in development before the first flight-ready examples were finally delivered to ULA several weeks ago. Therefore, the Starship is much likelier to reach orbit first than the New Glenn, since the first launch of the Vulcan has to take place and fabrication of additional BE-4s before the New Glenn has a chance of making its first flight next year.

Offline meekGee

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #14 on: 12/26/2022 06:20 pm »
Oh no, just saw this pole...

NG was competing with FH.
Now it is competing with SS, and is woefully behind.

Maybe if you poll NG to orbit vs. SS to Mars you'll have a balanced poll...
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Tommyboy

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #15 on: 12/26/2022 09:05 pm »
Quote
Voting closes: 2023-10-15, 21:39:34
My bet is that we'll have a definitive answer even before this poll closes...

Offline SweetWater

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #16 on: 12/26/2022 10:15 pm »
AFAIK, Blue has announced New Glenn's inaugural launch as as NET Q4 2023 - which, per Berger's Rule, really means NET Q1 2024. Given that Blue has revenue coming in from selling BE-4's to ULA and their overall track record, I see no reason to assume anything from them but continued gradatim and substantially less ferociter. 

The Starship/Super Heavy orbital test flight has been mere weeks or months away for several years now; however, the internal (Starlink 2) and external (Artemis) pressures to begin actually launching have to be mounting. Kremlinology into what is actually going on down in Boca Chica is a shot in the dark, but I'm in the camp that assumes that Shotwell taking over the day-to-day there is a good thing, and as long as Elon can get his book report done for the FAA I would really hope we'd see at least 2-3 launch attempts out of Boca Chica by the end of the year, although it wouldn't really surprise me if they don't make orbit on the first attempt.

Offline nicp

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #17 on: 12/26/2022 10:20 pm »
It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.
« Last Edit: 12/26/2022 10:21 pm by nicp »
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Online Eric Hedman

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #18 on: 12/26/2022 10:38 pm »
Unless there is a major design flaw in Starship, I expect Starship will win this battle.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #19 on: 12/26/2022 11:35 pm »
At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.
People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge...

In charge of what? ULA was the primary launch provider for the U.S. Government, and ULA (plus many other USG contractors) were afraid that SpaceX would take away business from them, so they started an advertising campaign to discredit SpaceX. That isn't "laughing", that is how business works sometimes.

Those of us that have been supporting SpaceX since early on didn't know for sure that SpaceX would succeed, but we were cheering them on because if they DID succeed then it would change the launch industry for the better. Which they have.

Quote
...people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...

I have been on this forum since before the SLS was created, and I honestly don't know of anyone that has framed the Starship as a competitor to the SLS. If anything those of us that don't like the SLS do so because of the tremendous cost of the SLS, not because of some fictional competition with the Starship.

Quote
...and most of them have been wrong

You are the one that has been wrong about how you have been framing the above charges.

Quote
Next year will be the cotton wool test...

I have no idea what this means, and this is the silliest poll I've seen in quite a while, because Blue Origin is moving exceedingly slow, has hardly any production hardware ready for testing, and they themselves are projecting launching New Glenn no earlier than Q4 2023.

SpaceX has been producing higher and higher fidelity flight units of the Starship for the past year, with LOTS of testing, and it looks reasonable that they will launch in Q1 of 2023.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline laszlo

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #20 on: 12/27/2022 11:28 am »
... as long as Elon can get his book report done for the FAA I would really hope we'd see at least 2-3 launch attempts out of Boca Chica by the end of the year...

Today is Tuesday, end of the year is this coming Saturday. Not gonna happen, book report ready or not. The concrete isn't dry yet.

Offline high road

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #21 on: 01/03/2023 08:17 am »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.

Offline schaban

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #22 on: 01/03/2023 12:05 pm »
Next year will be the cotton wool test...
I have no idea what this means,
Most likely “cotton wool’ means explosion. Originated on mistaken translation from Russian to Ukrainian

Online Comga

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #23 on: 01/03/2023 01:32 pm »
Next year will be the cotton wool test...
I have no idea what this means,
Most likely “cotton wool’ means explosion. Originated on mistaken translation from Russian to Ukrainian

It’s just a lazy, sloppy post.
In the vernacular, “cotton wool” has several meanings, many vulgar.
This link is to one that might be appropriate for all those Blue enthusiasts, but at the least it is acceptable in civilized public discussions.

Hint:  If you are going to be ever so cool and use obscure slang, it is a courtesy to us less cool readers to add a helpful link. 
Or we can assume you’re using the British version, Tywin.
« Last Edit: 01/03/2023 02:37 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #24 on: 01/03/2023 07:58 pm »
It's coming from Spanish, la prueba del algodon...

Nothing offensive...
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Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #25 on: 01/24/2023 08:04 pm »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to Arianespace, each New Glenn launch probably costs $68 million dollars. Last year, SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million. 
« Last Edit: 01/26/2023 08:01 pm by Vahe231991 »

Offline c4fusion

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #26 on: 01/26/2023 01:13 am »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to , each New Glenn launch probably costs $86 million dollars. Last year, [url=https://www.space.com/spacex-raises-prices-launch-starlink-inflation]SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.

Offline su27k

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #27 on: 01/26/2023 02:39 am »
Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.

The first link is https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/amazon-signs-rocket-deal-with-blue-origin-arianespace-ula-for-project-kuiper-internet-satellites.html, but it doesn't say New Glenn launch costs $86M, it does say an Arianespace estimate shows New Glenn launch to cost $68M.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #28 on: 01/26/2023 08:05 pm »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to , each New Glenn launch probably costs $86 million dollars. Last year, [url=https://www.space.com/spacex-raises-prices-launch-starlink-inflation]SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.
I fixed the URL for the webpage mentioning the 2020 Arianespace estimate of the cost of each New Glenn launch. If the estimate by Arianespace of the cost of a New Glenn launch holds water, a New Glenn launch would cost less than that of a reusable Falcon Heavy launch.

Offline Alvian@IDN

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #29 on: 01/26/2023 11:41 pm »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline Stan-1967

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #30 on: 01/27/2023 12:09 am »
Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.
According to Arianespace, each New Glenn launch probably costs $68 million dollars. Last year, SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Yes, Arianespace is an authority on the cost of New Glenn, just like they were the authority on the cost of F9/FH back when they still had a dominant position in launch services.  Starship Superheavy is in a different race than NG.  It takes away from both vehicles to compare them I think.  Blue is in a race against itself to be relevant. The longer it takes Blue to get it to the pad & to orbit, the less that is at stake for them.  Cue the "nobody cares" memes when it finally happens in 2024-2026 or so.

Starship Superheavy is in a race against much more.  Physics, economics, politics, etc.  It it succeeds, its impact will be much more than just another rocket among many others.  It is a paradigm changing possibility. If it fails, then I'm betting FH will have amortized all its development cost by that time, and SpaceX will drop current prices by around 40%.  Alternately Raptor derived smaller vehicles could be a solid basis of any number of rapid fallback positions SpaceX would need to take to compete directly & at lower cost against a NG vehicle.
« Last Edit: 01/27/2023 04:02 am by Stan-1967 »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #31 on: 01/27/2023 12:10 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH2, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH2 while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #32 on: 01/27/2023 12:23 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH2, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH2 while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.
I dislike BO, but I do not see this as a big deal. Hydrolox second stages, mostly Centaur in its various forms, have been the norm for decades for Atlas and Delta. The first Centaur flew in 1962 and there have been more than 350 flights. There must be lots of experienced folks around that BO has hired or can hire to implement this very well-known solution.

Online Bob Shaw

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #33 on: 01/27/2023 12:45 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:
If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH2, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH2 while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.
I dislike BO, but I do not see this as a big deal. Hydrolox second stages, mostly Centaur in its various forms, have been the norm for decades for Atlas and Delta. The first Centaur flew in 1962 and there have been more than 350 flights. There must be lots of experienced folks around that BO has hired or can hire to implement this very well-known solution.

It was certainly a big deal for SLS - ULA have mastered the processes, but even after nearly 200 LH2 NASA-controlled launches the institutional knowledge wasn't there. Can a tyro BO deal with deep cryo? Let's wait and see.
« Last Edit: 01/27/2023 12:53 am by Bob Shaw »

Online whitelancer64

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #34 on: 01/27/2023 01:35 am »
Gentle reminder that Blue Origin has many years of experience working with Hydrogen and LOX, they are the propellants for New Shepard.
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Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #35 on: 01/27/2023 07:19 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...
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Offline Alvian@IDN

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #36 on: 01/27/2023 07:26 am »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...
Rocket Garden ≠ scrapping
https://twitter.com/SpmtTracker/status/1618659996262354944?t=NXFT2gT2ZaUJ3GmxOLw1ng&s=19
« Last Edit: 01/27/2023 07:27 am by Alvian@IDN »
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Offline EspenU

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #37 on: 01/27/2023 11:14 am »


It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #38 on: 01/27/2023 12:43 pm »


It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.


Because the goal, is Mars  ::)
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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #39 on: 01/27/2023 03:38 pm »
Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...
They needed to remove it from the launch site because they intend to do a 33-engine static fire of SH. They had to put it somewhere, and the stand in the rocket garden is as good a place as any. I speculate that they will move ship 25 out of the launch area and back to the production site, and they did not want ship 24 in the way. I did worry that they needed ship 24 to be in a high bay for final TPS closeout, but apparently this can be done easily just about anywhere. It think it's harder (takes more time and effort) to put a rocket in a high bay than it is to put it in the Rocket garden.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #40 on: 01/28/2023 07:30 pm »


It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.
Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #41 on: 01/28/2023 07:41 pm »


It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.
Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

Off-topic for this thread, but...
If Starship succeeds, then it will be cheaper to launch than F9 or FH. That's the per-launch cost, not the $/kg cost. Thus, every F9 or FH that can be replaced by a Starship launch will increase SpaceX's profit, other things equal. This leaves only launches where F9 or FH are required for non-economic reasons. This includes Dragons, NSSL, and possibly some CLPS and Gateway resupply.

How does this affect the NG vs. Starship launch dates? Only to the extent that it motivates SpaceX to not only launch, but also get Starship fully operational.

Offline Alvian@IDN

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #42 on: 02/09/2023 12:55 am »


It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.
Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.
Starship & Falcon operating side-by-side ≠ Falcon being operated indefinitely
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Offline Alvian@IDN

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #43 on: 02/10/2023 03:05 am »
New Glenn's 7 BE-4 static fire (attempt) on SLC-36A orbital launch mount would be exciting for sure, but when?
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1623812763415093249?t=9Z9yRNtjPQWWWZJeqyjKEg&s=19
« Last Edit: 02/10/2023 03:08 am by Alvian@IDN »
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Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #44 on: 02/10/2023 03:49 am »
New Glenn's 7 BE-4 static fire (attempt) on SLC-36A orbital launch mount would be exciting for sure, but when?
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1623812763415093249?t=9Z9yRNtjPQWWWZJeqyjKEg&s=19
As long as Blue Origin is tightlipped about progress being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn and satellite images continued to be relied on for the latest progress regarding construction of the first New Glenn, odds of Starship reaching orbit before the New Glenn still remain high, notwithstanding FAA giving SpaceX the go ahead for the first launch of the Starship.

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #45 on: 04/14/2023 02:18 pm »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...
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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #46 on: 04/14/2023 07:55 pm »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...
Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #47 on: 04/15/2023 05:47 am »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...
Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes
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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #48 on: 04/15/2023 05:52 am »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...
Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes
Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #49 on: 04/15/2023 08:04 am »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...
Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes
Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.


My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....
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Offline Alvian@IDN

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #50 on: 04/15/2023 10:37 am »
Based on?
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline kevinof

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #51 on: 04/15/2023 10:49 am »
Based on?
It’s not based on any evidence, inside knowledge or anything of any substance. Zero. It’s basically content free - It’s just his opinion and well we all know about opinions.

Might be just as well to park this thread and come back to it in a year or two because it’s just a waste of bandwidth.

Offline Greg Hullender

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #52 on: 04/16/2023 01:25 am »
Does "reach orbit" mean "makes it more than half-way around?" or does it mean "enters an orbit with perigee above the Karmen line?" Or something else?

Half-way is a magic number for suborbital flights (with no air friction and single impulse, if you make it half-way, you'll make it all the way around), so I like to think of anything beyond that as orbital, not suborbital, hence Starship's planned first launch is "orbital" the way I'd like to define it. But I'm I the only one thinking that way?

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #53 on: 04/16/2023 01:55 am »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Offline meekGee

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #54 on: 04/16/2023 02:01 am »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...
Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes
Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.


My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....
That might happen if they blow up the pad, but that's true of any company, BO included.
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Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #55 on: 04/16/2023 10:10 am »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....
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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #56 on: 04/16/2023 06:23 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

While bending the reality of what has always been considered "experience with building orbital-class vehicles" remains your specialty.

Offline AllenB

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #57 on: 04/16/2023 07:06 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

Putting SpaceX entirely aside for the moment (which is admittedly difficult given the day) you've put your faith in... Blue Origin? Once upon a time, they looked like a promising start. Then a couple of decades passed and they've gotten as far as sending some people up high in the sky.

You can choose to believe that all of their silence and secrecy conceals great things, but given their record thus far, a conservative approach seems warranted.




Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #58 on: 04/20/2023 07:42 pm »
This one is obvious. If New Glenn ever launches it will be so different from the original concept it might not even keep the name. I'm rooting for them, but with SpaceX being younger than Blue, Blue so far behind they may never catch up.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #59 on: 04/21/2023 02:37 am »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...
Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes
Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.


My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....
Elon Musk had this to say on Twitter regarding a second Starship launch:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1649050306943266819

Since Musk now says that SpaceX will conduct another Starship launch in a few months, it'd be interesting to see if any time gap between the first and second New Glenn launches will be longer or shorter than the timing of a second Starship launch.

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #60 on: 05/24/2023 08:24 am »
The race is on...
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Offline Tommyboy

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #61 on: 05/24/2023 11:46 am »
The race is on...
What's changed?

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #62 on: 05/24/2023 03:20 pm »
The race is on...
What's changed?
Elon Musk wants to have SpaceX conduct the second Starship launch this summer. Regardless, Starship could be the first to reach a sustained orbit because construction of sub-assemblies for the New Glenn is still underway.

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #63 on: 05/24/2023 07:56 pm »
whitout a pad, I doubt...
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Offline spacenut

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #64 on: 05/24/2023 08:03 pm »
Pad is being rebuilt as we type. 

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #65 on: 06/08/2023 01:56 am »
New Glenn is coming, the 2024 will be amazing...
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Offline spacenut

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #66 on: 06/08/2023 02:08 am »
The Starship pad should be finished by the first of July with the improvements.  Then it would be waiting on FAA launch approval for a specific time.  At least 2-3 Starships are built as well as a couple of more boosters.  They do have approval to launch 5 times a year from Boca Chica. 

New Glenn is way behind schedule, like several years behind.  Even Starship is a couple of years behind Schedule, but SpaceX has the hardware and engines.  Blue doesn't tell us much. 

Also, New Glenn is not a competitor to Starship, but to Falcon Heavy as for payload capabilities.  Starship is more a competitor to SLS. 
« Last Edit: 06/08/2023 02:10 am by spacenut »

Offline Tommyboy

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #67 on: 06/08/2023 10:29 am »
New Glenn is coming, the 2024 will be amazing...
No way that NG is launching in 2024.

Offline Kspbutitscursed

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #68 on: 09/04/2023 01:15 am »
New Glenn is coming, the 2024 will be amazing...
No way that NG is launching in 2024.
its targeting Q4 2023 at the moment but it will probably launch in 2024
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Offline AndrewM

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #69 on: 09/07/2023 02:12 am »
New Glenn is coming, the 2024 will be amazing...
No way that NG is launching in 2024.
its targeting Q4 2023 at the moment but it will probably launch in 2024

There is 0 chance for a 2023 launch, Vulcan is currently targeting mid-December 2023 at the earliest for its debut and it has the first flight BE-4s.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #70 on: 09/07/2023 03:00 am »
whitout a pad, I doubt...

Your comment was from May 24th, when it was unclear what the solution was going to be for the Starship Orbital Launch Platform rebuild. Now we know what the solution is, it's been installed, it seems to work, and they have a flight stack of booster and ship on the pad waiting for FAA approval.

They still have a lot of new things to prove out, like hot staging, but assuming the OLM survives in good shape after the upcoming launch, SpaceX has more ships and boosters they can process for flight THIS YEAR!

What is the latest progress on New Glenn? Do they have a complete flight set built yet?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #71 on: 09/28/2023 03:41 am »
whitout a pad, I doubt...
What is the latest progress on New Glenn? Do they have a complete flight set built yet?
Blue Origin has not yet completed a single New Glenn, but photos of fabricated hardware for the New Glenn rocket can be found here:
https://www.space.com/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-factory-photo

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #72 on: 09/28/2023 03:55 am »
whitout a pad, I doubt...
What is the latest progress on New Glenn? Do they have a complete flight set built yet?
Blue Origin has not yet completed a single New Glenn, but photos of fabricated hardware for the New Glenn rocket can be found here:
https://www.space.com/blue-origin-new-glenn-rocket-factory-photo

Oh, I have no doubt that they have pieces and parts of a New Glenn rocket, but since the topic of this thread is about who will be the first to reach orbit, how does that compare to actual flight hardware that SpaceX has already assembled and tested, and is just awaiting government approval of the launch license?

And granted, this next Starship launch may not make it to orbit, but SpaceX has stated publicly that they have lots of hardware in process, and will try to fit in another launch this year.

It's just a matter of looking at the pace of accomplishment to understand that SpaceX has tremendous advantages over Blue Origin regarding who will reach orbit first. One would have to hope for something major to go wrong with SpaceX to give New Glenn a chance to reach orbit first.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #73 on: 01/09/2024 02:06 pm »
Oh no, just saw this pole...

NG was competing with FH.
Now it is competing with SS, and is woefully behind.

Maybe if you poll NG to orbit vs. SS to Mars you'll have a balanced poll...

Still waiting...
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Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #74 on: 01/09/2024 02:09 pm »
Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

Will see, if the paper rocket launch first to orbit...

https://twitter.com/mhaskellphoto/status/1744404314917884190

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Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #75 on: 01/09/2024 02:11 pm »
Quote
Voting closes: 2023-10-15, 21:39:34
My bet is that we'll have a definitive answer even before this poll closes...

UPssss, maybe NOT...
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Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #76 on: 01/09/2024 02:13 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...
« Last Edit: 01/09/2024 02:14 pm by Tywin »
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Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #77 on: 01/09/2024 02:16 pm »
New Glenn is coming, the 2024 will be amazing...
No way that NG is launching in 2024.

11 months and 20 days...will see...
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Online ugordan

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #78 on: 01/09/2024 02:21 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...
« Last Edit: 01/09/2024 02:23 pm by ugordan »

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #79 on: 01/09/2024 02:27 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...

I am NOT a faboi of any company, I LOVE space, complete all space agencies and companies, amateurs organization, all...

But here there has been much pleasure in mockery and indifference to anything but the magic ship, of the star company....
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Online ugordan

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #80 on: 01/09/2024 02:30 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...

I am NOT a faboi of any company, I LOVE space, complete all space agencies and companies, amateurs organization, all...

But here there has been much pleasure in mockery and indifference to anything but the magic ship, of the star company....

Sure, you aren't... Remind me, again, how many posts did you make in various threads overjust  the last couple of days, praising the ultimate majesty of engineering that is the BE-4?

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #81 on: 01/09/2024 02:34 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...

I am NOT a faboi of any company, I LOVE space, complete all space agencies and companies, amateurs organization, all...

But here there has been much pleasure in mockery and indifference to anything but the magic ship, of the star company....

Sure, you aren't... Remind me, again, how many posts did you make in various threads overjust  the last couple of days, praising the ultimate majesty of engineering that is the BE-4?

YES, because I really believe that the New Glenn will be an amazing rocket, and even more important, Blue Origin is go to be a giant space company in the future...

Blue will be the other leg of the table that was missing in the US space industry, to dominate the world space for several more decades...


And bring an even greater era of splendor in the cislunar ERA we live in....
« Last Edit: 01/09/2024 02:40 pm by Tywin »
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Offline dglow

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #82 on: 01/09/2024 02:40 pm »
In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?
Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

Yeahh, that is TRUE, guilty of having an open mind, and not being a fanboi of certain company...

No, just a fanboi of a certain OTHER company. Seriously, I don't think I've seen any SpX fan bois recently even as remotely as fervent as you...

I am NOT a faboi of any company, I LOVE space, complete all space agencies and companies, amateurs organization, all...

But here there has been much pleasure in mockery and indifference to anything but the magic ship, of the star company....

Sure, you aren't... Remind me, again, how many posts did you make in various threads overjust  the last couple of days, praising the ultimate majesty of engineering that is the BE-4?

YES, because I really believe that the New Glenn will be an amazing rocket, and even more important, Blue Origin is go to be a giant space company in the future...

Blue will be the other leg of the table that was missing in the US space industry, to dominate the world space for several more decades...

Back to the subject of this poll: Starship will reach orbital velocity before New Glenn’s upper stage. Any real fan of Blue shouldn’t let that bother them in the least.

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #83 on: 01/09/2024 02:45 pm »
Orbit is orbit, if the IFT-3 is the same profile that IFT-2, then is not orbit...


And this is a poll, nobody is bother...
« Last Edit: 01/09/2024 02:46 pm by Tywin »
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Offline spacenut

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #84 on: 01/09/2024 02:52 pm »
To me, SpaceX is trying to do a lot more than just reach orbit.  Hot staging, flips, landings.  Vulcan reached orbit, but the Superheavy booster completed it's mission through the second stage lighting and separation, so the Superheavy booster worked as a booster.  Flipping, sloshing, and exploding later didn't affect whether the second stage reached orbit.  Somehow the second stage didn't work right and it was destroyed before it could possibly hit somewhere in Florida.  Now, this is comparing with Vulcan.  New Glenn hasn't even tried yet. 

Is New Glenn going to try to land the booster?  Are they going to try to get the second stage to return in one piece? 

SpaceX from what I understand are going to try to boost back and land the booster in the Gulf.  Second stage will try to get through reentry and land in the ocean near Hawaii. 

This poll is only about who will reach orbit first.  Now is SpaceX going to be a true orbit if it doesn't completely circle the earth? 

Starthip 100-150 tons to orbit.  New Glenn 40 tons to orbit.  New Glenn compares to Falcon Heavy not Starship.  Starship compares to SLS for capability. 

To me SpaceX is trying to do far more than just reach orbit.   Don't know if Blue will try to do everything like SpaceX on one launch. 

Also, Blue is taking a very conservative approach it seems while SpaceX is trying different options to get more payload to orbit, like hot staging. 

Offline Tywin

Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #85 on: 01/09/2024 02:57 pm »
To me, SpaceX is trying to do a lot more than just reach orbit.  Hot staging, flips, landings.  Vulcan reached orbit, but the Superheavy booster completed it's mission through the second stage lighting and separation, so the Superheavy booster worked as a booster.  Flipping, sloshing, and exploding later didn't affect whether the second stage reached orbit.  Somehow the second stage didn't work right and it was destroyed before it could possibly hit somewhere in Florida.  Now, this is comparing with Vulcan.  New Glenn hasn't even tried yet. 

Is New Glenn going to try to land the booster?  Are they going to try to get the second stage to return in one piece? 

SpaceX from what I understand are going to try to boost back and land the booster in the Gulf.  Second stage will try to get through reentry and land in the ocean near Hawaii. 

This poll is only about who will reach orbit first.  Now is SpaceX going to be a true orbit if it doesn't completely circle the earth? 

Starthip 100-150 tons to orbit.  New Glenn 40 tons to orbit.  New Glenn compares to Falcon Heavy not Starship.  Starship compares to SLS for capability. 

To me SpaceX is trying to do far more than just reach orbit.   Don't know if Blue will try to do everything like SpaceX on one launch. 

Also, Blue is taking a very conservative approach it seems while SpaceX is trying different options to get more payload to orbit, like hot staging.

THAT always have been the definition of ORBIT...

And all the other specifications, and future goals,  are good for other thread, the poll, was very simple, reach orbit FIRST...

Will see...
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Offline jamesborr

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #86 on: 01/09/2024 03:51 pm »
I would agree with the purpose of this poll, but it also seems to be a bit similar to a prior "bragging rights" type of poll, i.e. what company first recovered a 1st stage booster, which was won by Blue Origin. However, I would argue that this event was not nearly as impactful as the subsequent Falcon 9 recovery which was far more "interesting" from a space launch perspective, and indeed, has yet to be equaled after all these years.

Offline dglow

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #87 on: 01/09/2024 04:30 pm »
To me, SpaceX is trying to do a lot more than just reach orbit.  Hot staging, flips, landings.  Vulcan reached orbit, but the Superheavy booster completed it's mission through the second stage lighting and separation, so the Superheavy booster worked as a booster.  Flipping, sloshing, and exploding later didn't affect whether the second stage reached orbit.  Somehow the second stage didn't work right and it was destroyed before it could possibly hit somewhere in Florida.  Now, this is comparing with Vulcan.  New Glenn hasn't even tried yet. 

Is New Glenn going to try to land the booster?  Are they going to try to get the second stage to return in one piece? 

SpaceX from what I understand are going to try to boost back and land the booster in the Gulf.  Second stage will try to get through reentry and land in the ocean near Hawaii. 

This poll is only about who will reach orbit first.  Now is SpaceX going to be a true orbit if it doesn't completely circle the earth? 

Starthip 100-150 tons to orbit.  New Glenn 40 tons to orbit.  New Glenn compares to Falcon Heavy not Starship.  Starship compares to SLS for capability. 

To me SpaceX is trying to do far more than just reach orbit.   Don't know if Blue will try to do everything like SpaceX on one launch. 

Also, Blue is taking a very conservative approach it seems while SpaceX is trying different options to get more payload to orbit, like hot staging.

THAT always have been the definition of ORBIT...

And all the other specifications, and future goals,  are good for other thread, the poll, was very simple, reach orbit FIRST...

Will see...

<sigh>

@spacenut, it's very possible to 'reach orbit' (orbital velocity and a trajectory which would circle the planet) then choose to intentionally deorbit before going all the way around. Some of the most ambitious Nat Sec plans for Shuttle involved exactly this.

@Tywin, whatever turns your crank. I hope you WIN your poll.

Offline dglow

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Re: First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?
« Reply #88 on: 01/09/2024 04:31 pm »
I would agree with the purpose of this poll, but it also seems to be a bit similar to a prior "bragging rights" type of poll, i.e. what company first recovered a 1st stage booster, which was won by Blue Origin. However, I would argue that this event was not nearly as impactful as the subsequent Falcon 9 recovery which was far more "interesting" from a space launch perspective, and indeed, has yet to be equaled after all these years.

First post! Welcome to the forum.

 

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