Total Members Voted: 97
Voting closed: 12/05/2022 01:50 pm
It seems surprising how low the mode is. There could be that number of people in orbit on Dec 31, 2023!
I voted 21 - 40. I think 8 years is a bit short where we will see large numbers of people in space8 years away is an interesting future look ahead. It's nearly short enough that programs that are flying then, will have to be under design/construction now. However, it's far enough out that things can change rather significantly.8 years before today was 2014. Did anyone foresee SX flying 60 flights a year, operating more satellites than all of the rest of the world combined in a billion dollar communication business? (wow!) The success of starship is the most important factor in this prediction. Is it successfully and safely launching and returning people in 2030? If it is (and i think it will), then there could be 100s of people off earth. If Starship is not a reliable people mover by then, then the numbers will likely be in the low tens. I think the financial viability of any of the commercial stations rests on cheap flights to orbit (much cheaper than dragon or other hypothetical vehicle)I'm interested in everyone's "wild" or unlikely predictions. What might be an X factor that could appear before 2030 that is not evident now? My unlikely wildcard is continental point to point delivery service