Poll

  In which calandar year will Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy launch the most?

2022
2023
2024
2025
After 2025

Author Topic: Which year will have the most Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy launches?  (Read 16520 times)

Offline DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5580
  • Earth (currently)
  • Liked: 4390
  • Likes Given: 1790
How firm are the launch licence limits?

Draft environmental assessment (Feb 2020)
https://www.faa.gov/space/environmental/nepa_docs/media/SpaceX_Falcon_Program_Draft_EA_508.pdf

allowed for 60 Falcon 9 launches and 10 Falcon Heavy launches

Are these firm limits? or could FH launches be converted to F9 so a limit of 70 launches? or ...

If 60 F9 launches is a firm limit then 2023 with more FH launches than typical (probably) could be year with most Falcon launches.


Could this limit launches this year?
Q1 13 Q2 16 then 16 16 = 61 only possible if at least one of them is a falcon Heavy?

The limits are for Florida (KSC+CCAFS), Vandenberg launches do not count.

Offline AmigaClone

I would be shocked & you're being way too optimistic if the offshore platforms comes online faster than LC-49, much less in only 2 years. Building a Stage Zero on land is hard enough, building one on offshore is another matter

The actual modifications to convert the two offshore platforms will be done while they docked, not offshore as you appear to think. They will be more complicated than a launch complex on land, but the towers, catch arms, Starship quick disconnect arm and the orbital launch mount would likely be made from pre-assembled parts on land before those parts are installed on the platforms. It will be interesting to see how the fuel farm is handled.

On the other hand, don't underestimate the bureaucracy involved before SpaceX is allowed to build a Stage 0 at LC 49.

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1689
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 462
  • Likes Given: 199
Although 2022 remains the year with the most Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy launches, it is possible that 2023 might exceed last year's tally by five or six launches, especially given that the Falcon Heavy has conducted two launches this year.

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1689
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 462
  • Likes Given: 199
So far this year, the tally of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches has exceeded that for 2022.

Offline AmigaClone

So far this year, the tally of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches has exceeded that for 2022.

At this point in time, (17:00 UTC on 19 September 2023) Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy have launched a total of 65 times. That beats the old record for orbital launches by members of the R-7 family (which includes Soyuz) set on 1980.

While I had predicted 2023 to be the peak number of Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launches, that was based on the assumption that Starship would become operational by the middle of this year.

My revised prediction is that the peak will occur sometime between 2024 and 2029 - with the year and number of launches of that peak depending on when Starship becomes operational and how fast it can ramp up it's flight rate.

 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1