Poll

Will Astra survive till 2026?

Yes
14 (17.5%)
No
66 (82.5%)

Total Members Voted: 80

Voting closed: 12/10/2022 11:29 am


Author Topic: Will Astra survive till 2026?  (Read 10686 times)

Offline soyuzu

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Will Astra survive till 2026?
« on: 06/13/2022 12:29 pm »
I used to think Astra would be the one in the small launch markets, but the recent failures, combining with economic downturns make their future seems pretty dire.

2026 is chosen as the same period when SpaceX goes from first Falcon 1 attempt to CRS-1

Offline su27k

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #1 on: 06/13/2022 02:00 pm »
Seems to me a better question is will they survive the next year? They lost $85M in 1st quarter, they predict $60M loss in 2nd quarter, their cash reserve is about $250M, their stock price is currently $1.5, pretty close to $1 which could cause them to be delisted...

Offline Alvian@IDN

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #2 on: 06/14/2022 02:33 am »
This video sums up pretty well
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline SweetWater

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #3 on: 06/14/2022 03:12 am »
Probably not. Their track record is, in a word, poor, and IMO they over-extended themselves with the simultaneous development of Rocket 3, Rocket 4, and their satellite bus. In addition, the small launch market is oversaturated with providers - Relativity and Firefly are set for launch attempts later this year.

RocketLab and Virgin Orbit are already flying with some success, and the market can *maybe* accommodate a third commercial small launch provider. Of Astra, Relativity, and Firefly, I would be surprised if more than one were still operating in 2026. 
« Last Edit: 06/14/2022 03:16 am by SweetWater »

Offline M.E.T.

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #4 on: 06/14/2022 03:23 am »
Probably not. Their track record is, in a word, poor, and IMO they over-extended themselves with the simultaneous development of Rocket 3, Rocket 4, and their satellite bus. In addition, the small launch marketis oversaturated with providers - Relativity and Firefly are set for launch attempts later this year.

RocketLab and Virgin Orbit are already flying with some success, and the market can *maybe* accommodate a third commercial small launch provider. Of Astra, Relativity, and Firefly, I would be surprised if more than one were still operating in 2026.

Are Rocketlab and Virgin Orbit even close to profitable or even cash flow positive at the moment?

And if not (spoiler, they’re not), are they in a position to raise any more cash in the market environment of the present day and foreseeable future?

So, the question should extend far beyond just Astra’s prospects of survival.
« Last Edit: 06/14/2022 03:28 am by M.E.T. »

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #5 on: 06/14/2022 04:13 am »
Probably not. Their track record is, in a word, poor, and IMO they over-extended themselves with the simultaneous development of Rocket 3, Rocket 4, and their satellite bus. In addition, the small launch marketis oversaturated with providers - Relativity and Firefly are set for launch attempts later this year.

RocketLab and Virgin Orbit are already flying with some success, and the market can *maybe* accommodate a third commercial small launch provider. Of Astra, Relativity, and Firefly, I would be surprised if more than one were still operating in 2026.

Are Rocketlab and Virgin Orbit even close to profitable or even cash flow positive at the moment?

And if not (spoiler, they’re not), are they in a position to raise any more cash in the market environment of the present day and foreseeable future?

So, the question should extend far beyond just Astra’s prospects of survival.
RL space systems is doing fine with promising future. Electron needs to pick its flightrate up, 10 a year and it' worth operating  even if not hugely profitable.
Neutron isn't make or break for them but it  walking away from it sure would hurt.

Most importantly revenue is increasing slowing cash burn which means they are long way from using up their cash reserves.






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Offline soyuzu

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #6 on: 06/14/2022 04:38 am »
Probably not. Their track record is, in a word, poor, and IMO they over-extended themselves with the simultaneous development of Rocket 3, Rocket 4, and their satellite bus. In addition, the small launch marketis oversaturated with providers - Relativity and Firefly are set for launch attempts later this year.

RocketLab and Virgin Orbit are already flying with some success, and the market can *maybe* accommodate a third commercial small launch provider. Of Astra, Relativity, and Firefly, I would be surprised if more than one were still operating in 2026.

Are Rocketlab and Virgin Orbit even close to profitable or even cash flow positive at the moment?

And if not (spoiler, they’re not), are they in a position to raise any more cash in the market environment of the present day and foreseeable future?

So, the question should extend far beyond just Astra’s prospects of survival.

Rocket lab only burns at $25M/quarter currently, and even less if they scales back development. Given their cash on hand ($700M), I don’t see how that would be a problem.

Offline high road

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #7 on: 06/14/2022 06:46 am »
I'm on the fence about this one. If things continue to go wrong, I can see them shift strategies somewhat and make the money last a few more years.

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #8 on: 06/14/2022 10:20 am »
I'm on the fence about this one. If things continue to go wrong, I can see them shift strategies somewhat and make the money last a few more years.
Only way to do that is scale back company which means lot of layoffs especially R&D. They have operational LV so could tick over on dozen launches a year.

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Online TrevorMonty

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #9 on: 06/14/2022 10:27 am »
At less staff at Astra got see their good work make it to orbit and to certain extent control their own destiny.
The poor staff at Vector weren't so lucky they had rug pulled out from under them by an unscrupulous founder.

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Offline AmigaClone

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #10 on: 07/14/2022 10:13 pm »
I suspect that if Astra is still operational July 14, 2023, then there would be a good chance of it still being around in 2026.

For that to happen though, I imagine Astra would have to have three consecutive successful launches and win at least one 'major' contract.

Offline crandles57

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #11 on: 09/06/2022 09:28 pm »
Seems to me a better question is will they survive the next year? They lost $85M in 1st quarter, they predict $60M loss in 2nd quarter, their cash reserve is about $250M, their stock price is currently $1.5, pretty close to $1 which could cause them to be delisted...

Below $1 since 24 Aug now at $0.79.

Quote
If the average closing price remains below $1 for [30 consecutive the next 30]days, the Nasdaq could give Astra a formal notice that they will be delisted if the price does not improve. Then Astra could be given up to 180 days to improve its stock price before being delisted altogether. If this happens, shareholders could still retain and trade their shares if the company is moved to the over-the-counter bulletin board or the pink sheets.
https://spaceexplored.com/2022/08/25/astra-stock-closes-sub-1/

Prospect of delisting won't make raising finance easy.


Offline sdsds

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #12 on: 09/06/2022 09:40 pm »
They don't need to be cash-flow positive to survive. They don't even need revenue to survive. What they need is to have an increase in "the present value of their expected stream of discounted future earnings." That metric incorporates investors expectation in the sense used in statistics and probability. And it incorporates "discounted" in the sense used by economists. So long as that metric increases they can continue to operate on freshly raised investment capital rather than revenue.

It might seem like a Ponzi scheme but it isn't! To make it work they need to be buying down risk. I believe they are doing that, though whether they're doing it fast enough is a matter only investors can decide.
« Last Edit: 09/07/2022 03:07 am by sdsds »
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Online trimeta

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #13 on: 09/07/2022 02:49 pm »
Seems to me a better question is will they survive the next year? They lost $85M in 1st quarter, they predict $60M loss in 2nd quarter, their cash reserve is about $250M, their stock price is currently $1.5, pretty close to $1 which could cause them to be delisted...

Below $1 since 24 Aug now at $0.79.

Quote
If the average closing price remains below $1 for [30 consecutive the next 30]days, the Nasdaq could give Astra a formal notice that they will be delisted if the price does not improve. Then Astra could be given up to 180 days to improve its stock price before being delisted altogether. If this happens, shareholders could still retain and trade their shares if the company is moved to the over-the-counter bulletin board or the pink sheets.
https://spaceexplored.com/2022/08/25/astra-stock-closes-sub-1/

Prospect of delisting won't make raising finance easy.

TL;DW: They've got at least a year from first dropping below $1 before there's even a chance of delisting (the first 30 days, then the 180 days, then a second 180-day period they can apply for and will likely receive), plus they could reverse stock split at the end of that to bring their share price back up. Of course, after the reverse stock split they could drop below $1 again and go through the process a second time, and NASDAQ is less sanguine about companies which repeatedly reverse stock split to avoid delisting. That said, they'll probably go bankrupt long before they run out of chances to remain listed.

Offline crandles57

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #14 on: 09/18/2022 06:32 pm »
It might seem like a Ponzi scheme but it isn't! To make it work they need to be buying down risk. I believe they are doing that, though whether they're doing it fast enough is a matter only investors can decide.

Trouble with working on the risks is that the market may well not mind specific risk much at all as that can be diversified away. It is the value swings that move with the market that cannot be diversified that the market doesn't like. New rocket company risk will be mainly specific risk so perhaps not much of a value impairment that can be worked on. Of course if the probability of success is going up that increases the expected value and that does help a lot, but perhaps this tends to only comes in jumps with successful tests. But if the expectation is that it will become harder to raise the necessary finance the probability of success might be believed to be going down. This could become a vicious circle expectations of success lower so lower share price so seen as harder to raise necessary finance so expectations of success further reduced.

If the revenue stream is getting closer as time passes then that helps but I suggest it doesn't allow huge extra sums to be raised.

Offline DeimosDream

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #15 on: 08/16/2023 01:30 pm »
I suspect that if Astra is still operational July 14, 2023, then there would be a good chance of it still being around in 2026.

For that to happen though, I imagine Astra would have to have three consecutive successful launches and win at least one 'major' contract.

It is now August 2023 and they are still operational for now. However they never got that 3rd successful launch and 2026 isn't looking any better today than when this poll closed.

The company's current strategy appears to be to buy enough time to launch Rocket v4, then pray the launch is successful enough to win a major contract.

https://spacenews.com/astra-seeks-strategic-investors-as-cash-reserves-decrease/


Maybe they can take some consolation in outlasting Virgin Orbit, but it feels like the company is now in a terminal decline and won't be around July 2024.

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #16 on: 08/16/2023 04:25 pm »
The orbital engine business has already been split off from LV side of business. Most likely it will survive as it is making money while LV side disappears. Decision to windup LV business needs to be made soon while they still have cash reserves to pull it off.


Online trimeta

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #17 on: 08/16/2023 05:05 pm »
The orbital engine business has already been split off from LV side of business. Most likely it will survive as it is making money while LV side disappears. Decision to windup LV business needs to be made soon while they still have cash reserves to pull it off.
My expectation is that they go bankrupt, and then the satellite thruster business gets auctioned off. I'd call that an "Astra doesn't survive" situation, even if the IP and tooling from Apollo Fusion does continue to be used for building thrusters.

Offline Rebel44

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #18 on: 08/25/2023 03:45 pm »
The orbital engine business has already been split off from LV side of business. Most likely it will survive as it is making money while LV side disappears. Decision to windup LV business needs to be made soon while they still have cash reserves to pull it off.
My expectation is that they go bankrupt, and then the satellite thruster business gets auctioned off. I'd call that an "Astra doesn't survive" situation, even if the IP and tooling from Apollo Fusion does continue to be used for building thrusters.

I agree

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #19 on: 08/28/2023 09:19 pm »
https://twitter.com/breadfrom/status/1696269648705061180

Quote
Scoop- Astra’s acquisition of Apollo Fusion was marred by mismanagement, delivery delays and top talent leaving, multiple sources and internal documents reveal.

https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/28/astras-apollo-fusion-acquisition-followed-by-delays-and-desertion/

Quote
Astra’s Apollo Fusion acquisition followed by delays and desertion
Staff departures and overly optimistic delivery timelines impact Astra’s engine ambitions

Aria Alamalhodaei

@breadfrom / 10:12 PM GMT+1•August 28, 2023

Online trimeta

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #20 on: 08/28/2023 09:32 pm »
Perhaps I was being too optimistic about "the satellite thruster business gets auctioned off." I guess they probably still have at least some equipment that's valuable, much like Virgin Orbit's headquarters/factory?

Offline niwax

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #21 on: 08/28/2023 10:33 pm »
With the Apollo situation, Astra has effectively just declared bankruptcy.

In order to keep the initial price down, Astra agreed on payments to employees and the former owners as Apollo reached milestones, almost $100 million cash in total. They just offered a settlement of $7 million, or $2 million in cash and the rest in stock instead.

That's their biggest debt being settled at 7 cents on the dollar...
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Online dglow

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #22 on: 08/28/2023 11:49 pm »
https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/28/astras-apollo-fusion-acquisition-followed-by-delays-and-desertion/

Quote
Astra’s Apollo Fusion acquisition followed by delays and desertion
Staff departures and overly optimistic delivery timelines impact Astra’s engine ambitions

Aria Alamalhodaei

@breadfrom / 10:12 PM GMT+1•August 28, 2023

SMDH here

If accurate, Astra bought the business only to ignore its people. I can’t think of many industries where human capital is more important. Moreover, Apollo Fusion’s acquisition may only have been a convenient sink for SPAC $$ in order to claim ‘diversification’. Sigh.

I’ve long wondered/hoped, against intuition, whether it was possible that Kemp & Co. were just dealt the unluckiest of hands … repeatedly. Turns out, Kemp is the CEO with no clothes, at least when it comes to people and team, in which case Astra’s series of unfortunate events makes perfect sense.

Minus Astra, sigh.
« Last Edit: 08/29/2023 01:01 pm by dglow »

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #23 on: 08/29/2023 01:08 am »
Perhaps I was being too optimistic about "the satellite thruster business gets auctioned off." I guess they probably still have at least some equipment that's valuable, much like Virgin Orbit's headquarters/factory?
Customers must be getting worried and probably looking to switch engine suppliers. Not straight forward as it would mean major redesign of satellite bus.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #24 on: 08/29/2023 02:33 pm »
Perhaps I was being too optimistic about "the satellite thruster business gets auctioned off." I guess they probably still have at least some equipment that's valuable, much like Virgin Orbit's headquarters/factory?
Customers must be getting worried and probably looking to switch engine suppliers. Not straight forward as it would mean major redesign of satellite bus.
Maybe it time for a major player to acquire Astra to wind up the non Apollo Fusion thruster business. Otherwise finding alternate thrusters will likely lead to inquires at Hawthorne, who is currently the largest US producer of thrusters AFAIK.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #25 on: 08/29/2023 06:48 pm »
Busek is another provider.

I think Astra isn’t dead yet. Having a capability to build a bunch of missilesrockets cheaply and in very large numbers is valuable.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online TrevorMonty

Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #26 on: 08/29/2023 09:54 pm »
Busek is another provider.

I think Astra isn’t dead yet. Having a capability to build a bunch of missilesrockets cheaply and in very large numbers is valuable.
Military gave up on LOX fuelled missiles in 60s. The benefit was these obsolete missiles turned into basis for LVs.

Online Robotbeat

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Re: Will Astra survive till 2026?
« Reply #27 on: 08/29/2023 10:05 pm »
Busek is another provider.

I think Astra isn’t dead yet. Having a capability to build a bunch of missilesrockets cheaply and in very large numbers is valuable.
Military gave up on LOX fuelled missiles in 60s. The benefit was these obsolete missiles turned into basis for LVs.
where did I mention liquid oxygen? Draper is a storable version of the Hadley engine from Ursa Major. Ursa Major already is an engine provider for Astra
« Last Edit: 08/29/2023 10:06 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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