Author Topic: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)  (Read 182322 times)

Offline Alvian@IDN

Reiterating the point
....Cape factory online is late 2024 earliest.
I can bet you'll be surprised in the next several months

And the same for many people here

Correct. Cape factory online is THIS year, according to my sources. They also intend to have the LC-39A OLM and Stage 0 done by the end of this year. Same for the tank farm.

Note: those are realistic estimates by SpaceX personnel, not the overly optimistic twitter shots from Elon.
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline rsnellenberger

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #21 on: 02/28/2022 05:55 pm »
It seems like it's been a while since there was any news about the vertical integration infrastructure that SpaceX had planned/contracted to build at 39A for DOD launches.

Offline Alvian@IDN

We think we know for sure that SpaceX will be producing components for at least one "stage zero" in Florida, and possibly two or more, at Roberts Rd. I'm fairly sure they will need a Starship refurbishment facility, probably also at Roberts Rd. Each "stage zero" probably includes tanks for the tank farms, and each tank farm will be larger than the one at BC to support a high launch cadence. These requirements account for everything we have yet seen at Roberts Rd. Until we see Starship components at the site or SpaceX makes an announcement, we will not know for sure if they will be building Starships there in the short term. Simply from a scheduling perspective, It would make sense for Roberts Rd. to concentrate on stage zero before producing Starships. After the tanks get built, then can shift over to Starship if needed.
You seem to not read the woods170 statements. They will build factory & Stage 0 simultaneously. People that watches NSF live knows that there's a land cleared for factory
« Last Edit: 03/01/2022 02:09 am by Alvian@IDN »
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #23 on: 03/01/2022 01:23 am »
We think we know for sure that SpaceX will be producing components for at least one "stage zero" in Florida, and possibly two or more, at Roberts Rd. I'm fairly sure they will need a Starship refurbishment facility, probably also at Roberts Rd. Each "stage zero" probably includes tanks for the tank farms, and each tank farm will be larger than the one at BC to support a high launch cadence. These requirements account for everything we have yet seen at Roberts Rd. Until we see Starship components at the site or SpaceX makes an announcement, we will not know for sure if they will be building Starships there in the short term. Simply from a scheduling perspective, It would make sense for Roberts Rd. to concentrate on stage zero before producing Starships. After the tanks get built, then can shift over to Starship if needed.
You seem to not read the woods170 statements. They will build launch site & Stage 0 simultaneously. People that watches NSF live knows that there's a land cleared for factory

Are you referring to this message?
....Cape factory online is late 2024 earliest.
I can bet you'll be surprised in the next several months

And the same for many people here

Correct. Cape factory online is THIS year, according to my sources. They also intend to have the LC-39A OLM and Stage 0 done by the end of this year. Same for the tank farm.

Note: those are realistic estimates by SpaceX personnel, not the overly optimistic twitter shots from Elon.

The message does not say what they will be producing.  Based on the progress they are making it's clear thehey will be producing quite a bit of something by the end of the year, and IMO if they are going to launch from KSC in the next 12 months they have a huge amount of work to do to fabricate the Mechazilla, OLM, and OLM. The may or may not have time left over to start building Starships. We'll see. Florida Starships are not on the critical path. A Florida launch facility is on the critical path.

Offline Alvian@IDN

We think we know for sure that SpaceX will be producing components for at least one "stage zero" in Florida, and possibly two or more, at Roberts Rd. I'm fairly sure they will need a Starship refurbishment facility, probably also at Roberts Rd. Each "stage zero" probably includes tanks for the tank farms, and each tank farm will be larger than the one at BC to support a high launch cadence. These requirements account for everything we have yet seen at Roberts Rd. Until we see Starship components at the site or SpaceX makes an announcement, we will not know for sure if they will be building Starships there in the short term. Simply from a scheduling perspective, It would make sense for Roberts Rd. to concentrate on stage zero before producing Starships. After the tanks get built, then can shift over to Starship if needed.
You seem to not read the woods170 statements. They will build launch site & Stage 0 simultaneously. People that watches NSF live knows that there's a land cleared for factory

Are you referring to this message?
....Cape factory online is late 2024 earliest.
I can bet you'll be surprised in the next several months

And the same for many people here

Correct. Cape factory online is THIS year, according to my sources. They also intend to have the LC-39A OLM and Stage 0 done by the end of this year. Same for the tank farm.

Note: those are realistic estimates by SpaceX personnel, not the overly optimistic twitter shots from Elon.

The message does not say what they will be producing.  Based on the progress they are making it's clear they will be producing quite a bit of something by the end of the year, and IMO if they are going to launch from KSC in the next 12 months they have a huge amount of work to do to fabricate the Mechazilla, OLM, and OLM. The may or may not have time left over to start building Starships. We'll see. Florida Starships are not on the critical path. A Florida launch facility is on the critical path.
I have no idea why you keep trying to discount the factory producing the ships & boosters from critical path. You're not gonna launching anything without the vehicle

Florida efforts including the launch site AND the ship & booster factory. Boca-made vehicles being shipped for KSC will be totally unexpected
« Last Edit: 03/01/2022 01:54 am by Alvian@IDN »
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #25 on: 03/01/2022 02:05 am »
Florida efforts including the launch site AND the ship & booster factory. Boca-made vehicles being shipped for KSC will be totally unexpected
In your opinion, how many SH and SS will SpaceX produce in BC in 2022 and 2023, and what will they do with them?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #26 on: 03/01/2022 03:06 am »
Florida efforts including the launch site AND the ship & booster factory. Boca-made vehicles being shipped for KSC will be totally unexpected
In your opinion, how many SH and SS will SpaceX produce in BC in 2022 and 2023, and what will they do with them?
Boca Chica build of finished and engined ~6 to 10 each of SH and SS, 6 to 10 sets for 2022. ~12 each for SH and SS in 2023.

Cape build of ~1 to 3 each of SH and SS, 1 to 3 sets in 2022. ~12 each of SH and SS in 2023.

Unfortunately some may be scrapped due to becoming obsolete before they fly. Loss cost of ~$10 to 20M to scrap a vehicle in tank and parts unusable in later versions. The scrapping of as many as 5 complete sets in a year would cost ~$100 to 200M. Note the cost value here is the cost to build a new set of parts etc that replaces those scrapped.

Even though 12 sets could get built in 2023 each at both Boca Chica and the Cape (total 24 sets) all of those may not be used.



Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #27 on: 03/01/2022 03:30 am »
Florida efforts including the launch site AND the ship & booster factory. Boca-made vehicles being shipped for KSC will be totally unexpected
In your opinion, how many SH and SS will SpaceX produce in BC in 2022 and 2023, and what will they do with them?
Boca Chica build of finished and engined ~6 to 10 each of SH and SS, 6 to 10 sets for 2022. ~12 each for SH and SS in 2023.

Cape build of ~1 to 3 each of SH and SS, 1 to 3 sets in 2022. ~12 each of SH and SS in 2023.

Unfortunately some may be scrapped due to becoming obsolete before they fly. Loss cost of ~$10 to 20M to scrap a vehicle in tank and parts unusable in later versions. The scrapping of as many as 5 complete sets in a year would cost ~$100 to 200M. Note the cost value here is the cost to build a new set of parts etc that replaces those scrapped.

Even though 12 sets could get built in 2023 each at both Boca Chica and the Cape (total 24 sets) all of those may not be used.
Again, They don't come in sets, except deliberately expended SH. One SH supports many SS.
In your opinion, what will they do with the ones built in BC? How many operational SH and SS will SpaceX need in 2023? Why will they build 24 SS (ignoring SH) and then not use them?

Offline VaBlue

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #28 on: 03/01/2022 06:21 pm »
Again, They don't come in sets, except deliberately expended SH. One SH supports many SS.
In your opinion, what will they do with the ones built in BC? How many operational SH and SS will SpaceX need in 2023? Why will they build 24 SS (ignoring SH) and then not use them?

Why would they number ~20-some SS, only build ~10 of them, and only fly ~half of those?  It's pretty clear to me that SpaceX isn't afraid to start work on something, obsolete it before flight, and move on.  Each build - each iteration - brings something new, whether we can see it, or not.  You can't validate a build process, a new method, a different part, without actually building and integrating it into a finished product (which is not necessarily a finished space ship/rocket).  I'm pretty sure everything being built at BC today can be fairly characterized as a 'prototype' in some form.  We're also pretty sure that everything constructed at Boca will be a new(ish) design for R&D.  I'm betting the Cape facility will build one design - whichever one first displays the knack to get into orbit and back home safely.

Offline pyromatter

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #30 on: 03/03/2022 03:52 pm »
no way! A round pad for a water tower how not SpaceX of them.

I wonder if the plan for this tower is to get it fitted out prior to moving and stacking? It could save a ton of integration time on-site that they don't have as they are building on an active launch pad.

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Offline pyromatter

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Online edzieba

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #34 on: 03/04/2022 10:03 am »
no way! A round pad for a water tower how not SpaceX of them.

I wonder if the plan for this tower is to get it fitted out prior to moving and stacking? It could save a ton of integration time on-site that they don't have as they are building on an active launch pad.
Maybe. If they have a good idea of the final desired plumbing configuration from the BC tower they can pre-install most of it. However, there's the tradeoff of a potentially faster final stacking with more time spent on the ground, vs. the time saved doing 'the same thing but faster' with the same assembly sequence as at BC without spending time on learning new assembly methods (e.g. aligning all the pipework on each segment more precisely, and having to mate many many connections at elevation anyway between segments).

Offline pyromatter

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Offline su27k

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #36 on: 03/08/2022 02:20 am »
https://twitter.com/spacecoast_stve/status/1500881584853065731

Quote
Incoming delivery from #Starbase!

At around 9am, these Starship ground support tanks arrived at Port Canaveral after departing Boca Chica a few days ago.

Starbase Live: http://nasaspaceflight.com/starbaselive

Fleetcam: http://nasaspaceflight.com/fleetcam

Offline pyromatter

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Offline pyromatter

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« Last Edit: 03/11/2022 12:09 pm by pyromatter »

Offline Hamish.Student

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Re: SpaceX Florida - Overall (Roberts Road to 39A and LC-49)
« Reply #39 on: 03/11/2022 10:12 pm »


https://twitter.com/GregScott_photo/status/1502256295478534144
 
 
What would they be burning off? Vegetation? Id have thought that would be recycled.

 

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