Poll

How many successful SS launch and landings will there be before Polaris III?

9 or less
15 (20.3%)
10 to 24
21 (28.4%)
25 to 49
21 (28.4%)
50 to 99
7 (9.5%)
100 or more
10 (13.5%)

Total Members Voted: 74

Voting closed: 06/19/2022 05:30 am


Author Topic: Polaris III Star Ship flight.  (Read 4188 times)

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Polaris III Star Ship flight.
« on: 02/19/2022 04:30 am »
 Being 100% reusable, Star Ship will likely amass flights rapidly if successful.
 Including a date for when the milestone you select is achieved would be appreciated.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Polaris III Star Ship flight.
« Reply #1 on: 02/24/2022 07:20 pm »
I don't expect Star Ship at least the first versions to make any where close to the flight rates Musk claims.
I'd be thoroughly impressed if it manages to fly once every two weeks in it's first iteration.

Offline tyrred

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Re: Polaris III Star Ship flight.
« Reply #2 on: 02/24/2022 07:32 pm »
NET 2025

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Polaris III Star Ship flight.
« Reply #3 on: 03/07/2022 02:28 pm »
I don't expect Star Ship at least the first versions to make any where close to the flight rates Musk claims.
I'd be thoroughly impressed if it manages to fly once every two weeks in it's first iteration.

I am slightly less optimistic than you. I would say initially after the first boosters and Starships are recovered it might average out slightly less than a launch per month. Within two years I can see the cadence for the newer Boosters and Starships would improve to the point the same booster flying twice or more in a month.

It would be much longer (if ever) before the cadence would allow the same booster to fly more than once a day

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Polaris III Star Ship flight.
« Reply #4 on: 03/07/2022 03:50 pm »
I don't expect Star Ship at least the first versions to make any where close to the flight rates Musk claims.
I'd be thoroughly impressed if it manages to fly once every two weeks in it's first iteration.

I am slightly less optimistic than you. I would say initially after the first boosters and Starships are recovered it might average out slightly less than a launch per month. Within two years I can see the cadence for the newer Boosters and Starships would improve to the point the same booster flying twice or more in a month.

It would be much longer (if ever) before the cadence would allow the same booster to fly more than once a day

For the SH, what do you see as the constraint on the turnaround time, assuming RTLS to chopsticks works at all. I can see a lot more potential problems for the SS due to TPS.

Separately, the launch site may have constraints. Do you see turnaround constraints for the Mechazilla and/or the OLP?  What about GSE propellant capacity and supply rate?

Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: Polaris III Star Ship flight.
« Reply #5 on: 02/08/2023 10:58 pm »
 Qwynne Shotwell suggests the answer to this poll is 100 flights and perhaps late 2025 early 2026 for Polaris III

Quote
She said she expected Starship to fly at least 100 times before it carries people for the first time, a challenge as the company prepares a lunar lander version of Starship for NASA’s Artemis 3 mission, currently scheduled for as soon as 2025.

In her later conversation with reporters, she called that 100-flight milestone a “great goal” but suggested it was not a requirement. “I would love to do hundreds before. I think that would be a great goal and it’s quite possible that we could do that,” she said.

She noted the company has a goal of 100 Falcon launches this year. “If we can do 100 flights of Falcon this year, I’d love to be able to do 100 flights of Starship next year. I don’t think we will do 100 flights of Starship next year, but maybe 2025 we will do 100 flights.”

Offline Alvian@IDN

Re: Polaris III Star Ship flight.
« Reply #6 on: 02/08/2023 11:39 pm »
Qwynne Shotwell suggests the answer to this poll is 100 flights and perhaps late 2025 early 2026 for Polaris III

Quote
She said she expected Starship to fly at least 100 times before it carries people for the first time, a challenge as the company prepares a lunar lander version of Starship for NASA’s Artemis 3 mission, currently scheduled for as soon as 2025.

In her later conversation with reporters, she called that 100-flight milestone a “great goal” but suggested it was not a requirement. “I would love to do hundreds before. I think that would be a great goal and it’s quite possible that we could do that,” she said.

She noted the company has a goal of 100 Falcon launches this year. “If we can do 100 flights of Falcon this year, I’d love to be able to do 100 flights of Starship next year. I don’t think we will do 100 flights of Starship next year, but maybe 2025 we will do 100 flights.”
Emphasize on "not a requirement"
My parents was just being born when the Apollo program is over. Why we are still stuck in this stagnation, let's go forward again

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