Poll

How many SpaceX orbital flight attempts do you anticipate in 2022?

1
0 (0%)
2
2 (2.1%)
3
1 (1%)
4
0 (0%)
5
1 (1%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
0 (0%)
11
0 (0%)
12
0 (0%)
13
0 (0%)
14
0 (0%)
15
0 (0%)
16
0 (0%)
17
0 (0%)
18
0 (0%)
19
0 (0%)
20
0 (0%)
21
0 (0%)
22
0 (0%)
23
0 (0%)
24
0 (0%)
25
0 (0%)
26
1 (1%)
27
0 (0%)
28
1 (1%)
29
2 (2.1%)
30
1 (1%)
31
0 (0%)
32
4 (4.2%)
33
0 (0%)
34
2 (2.1%)
35
7 (7.3%)
36
7 (7.3%)
37
4 (4.2%)
38
3 (3.1%)
39
4 (4.2%)
40
8 (8.3%)
41
2 (2.1%)
42
17 (17.7%)
43
1 (1%)
44
2 (2.1%)
45
5 (5.2%)
46
2 (2.1%)
47
3 (3.1%)
48
2 (2.1%)
49
0 (0%)
50
6 (6.3%)
51
0 (0%)
52
3 (3.1%)
53
1 (1%)
54
0 (0%)
55
1 (1%)
56
0 (0%)
57
1 (1%)
58
0 (0%)
59
0 (0%)
60
0 (0%)
61
1 (1%)
62
0 (0%)
63
0 (0%)
64
0 (0%)
65
0 (0%)
66
0 (0%)
67
0 (0%)
68
0 (0%)
69
1 (1%)
70
0 (0%)
More than 70!!!!
0 (0%)
0 (zero, goose egg, none, nada, zip) (on the bright side if you pick this one you probably will know you were wrong way before anyone else!!!)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 96

Voting closed: 01/20/2022 10:48 pm


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022  (Read 24917 times)

Online AmigaClone

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #40 on: 11/13/2022 11:43 pm »
I fully expect SpaceX to reach the 60 launches in 365 days mark - even if that is not the situation on 31 December 2022.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #41 on: 11/30/2022 02:16 am »
I fully expect SpaceX to reach the 60 launches in 365 days mark - even if that is not the situation on 31 December 2022.
A total of 54 SpaceX launches have been conducted this year at the current time of writing, and with a Falcon 9 launch scheduled for tomorrow and additional launches planned for December, SpaceX might ace little over 60 orbital launches in 2022.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #42 on: 12/14/2022 06:27 am »
The poll specifies "Flight attempts". Do the scrubs count too? I mean, they are an attempt....  ;D



Absolutely CRAZY suggestion. Read the rules! They are right there in the first post.

Quote
Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second (or only if SSTO)  stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth (some wag last year pointed out that with rotation to get over the launch site again takes about 380 degrees for a LEO... yeah whatever. As I said last year if this actually happens, I will rule in a way to annoy the maximum number of people)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Comsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count. (this includes the starhopper, any starship suborbitals, any superheavy suborbitals)
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Starship tests count IF they are not suborbital. SSTO if they try it, or two stage. (so none counted so far)
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magesty, make the call.

Bolded for emphasis.

tl;dr - NO
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #43 on: 12/14/2022 06:28 am »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #44 on: 12/17/2022 08:27 pm »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

Maybe a poll(s) instead about SpaceX launch and landing milestones?

Offline schaban

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #45 on: 12/18/2022 12:02 am »
Limit 2023 poll to starship only

Online Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #46 on: 12/18/2022 12:30 am »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

Oh, I do think so, and would again track the results as they come in.

It might be good to start the poling soon and end it with the year.

But please do something to limit the number of choices, like pairs of numbers between say, 24 and 84.

As of today, SpaceX has launched 59 times, one shy of Musk’s goal but more than all but two of our 96 guesses last year. 

I am looking forward to my usual post New Year’s look-back in this thread.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2022 12:30 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline SweetWater

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #47 on: 12/18/2022 12:44 am »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

The poll is fun to participate in and to follow; however, SpaceX's ability to hit a launch cadence have been pretty well proven out this year. Barring a stand-down due to a launch failure, an issue with their launch infrastructure, or a lack of payloads, there is every reason to suspect they will have a similar number of launches in 2023 as they did this year.

Maybe it would be interesting to do a poll for SpaceX's share of total global launches, the number of SpaceX launches of Starlink 2 satellites, or something similar.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #48 on: 12/30/2022 07:02 am »
So amazingly this poll has a sole winner at 61 missions, all successful. Congratulations!

And only one person over predicted Ö so pleased nearly all of us got this year so wrong  :)

Offline gsa

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #49 on: 12/30/2022 02:15 pm »
So amazingly this poll has a sole winner at 61 missions, all successful. Congratulations!
Isn't it a solid proof that Elon is a member of this forum. :)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #50 on: 12/30/2022 02:38 pm »
This is insane. I voted for just 37.

Falcon 9 is an absolute machine. Itíll be the end of the decade before Starship meets that launch rate even on an optimistic timeline.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline freddo411

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #51 on: 12/30/2022 02:48 pm »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

Yes, I enjoy the poll.   Look at the surprizes from this year

Cheers.

Offline freddo411

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #52 on: 12/30/2022 02:52 pm »
This is insane. I voted for just 37.

Falcon 9 is an absolute machine. Itíll be the end of the decade before Starship meets that launch rate even on an optimistic timeline.


This HAS been an impressive year.

With respect to SS, there are two seemingly valid lines of argument:

* It is a new system, it will take time to iron out the bugs, so launch rate will be slow to start with

* SpaceX has tons of experience with F9 that is very likely to carry over.   Thus, we may see a very surprising, very quick ramp up of Starship launches

I don't know which factor will dominate.   I can confidently predict that it won't take SX and starship 7 years to reach a once a week cadence -- that's too pessimistic.

Online BitBanger

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #53 on: 12/30/2022 05:54 pm »
So amazingly this poll has a sole winner at 61 missions, all successful. Congratulations!

Thanks. It was purely a lucky guess.  I counted the manifest at the beginning of the year and added a guess as to the number of Starlink flights.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #54 on: 12/30/2022 07:54 pm »
I voted 50 and based it on past of what was manifested to amount actually launched. I had not thought that SpaceX would launch 33 Starlinks but used just 24 in my estimate.

Everyone was surprised. Even the 2 that put in 61 and the even higher one.

So next year if the weather holds up like it did this year for most of next year the number should be nearly as surprising as this year with another higher number.

Online niwax

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #55 on: 12/30/2022 09:09 pm »
This is insane. I voted for just 37.

Falcon 9 is an absolute machine. Itíll be the end of the decade before Starship meets that launch rate even on an optimistic timeline.


This HAS been an impressive year.

With respect to SS, there are two seemingly valid lines of argument:

* It is a new system, it will take time to iron out the bugs, so launch rate will be slow to start with

* SpaceX has tons of experience with F9 that is very likely to carry over.   Thus, we may see a very surprising, very quick ramp up of Starship launches

I don't know which factor will dominate.   I can confidently predict that it won't take SX and starship 7 years to reach a once a week cadence -- that's too pessimistic.

The combination of these two factors is exactly what leads to very steep S curves that humans are very bad at predicting. It's how you go from "Haha, they are having trouble making cars because they are trying to put loads of automation into their production line" to "How the hell are they making 500k units a year in one factory?"

The first launch will come at a leisurely pace, but I would expect them to come in quicker and quicker after that.
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #56 on: 12/30/2022 09:30 pm »
Yeah, Iím expecting maybe a similar curve as for F9. Took a while before F9 was launching regularly, and SpaceX were mocked for it. Now, F9 dominates everything.

It took like 10 years to get here. (First F9 v1.0 launched in 2010, but I honestly feel like v1.1 and later are a different vehicle, and that was first launched in 2012.)
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #57 on: 12/30/2022 10:35 pm »
Next year let's have separate polls for the number of Falcon (including heavy) launches and the number of Starship launches.

Offline su27k

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #58 on: 12/31/2022 02:15 am »
Yeah, Iím expecting maybe a similar curve as for F9. Took a while before F9 was launching regularly, and SpaceX were mocked for it. Now, F9 dominates everything.

It took like 10 years to get here. (First F9 v1.0 launched in 2010, but I honestly feel like v1.1 and later are a different vehicle, and that was first launched in 2012.)

This would be a good poll topic: How many years will Starship reach 60 launches per year after its first launch.

My bet is it will be significantly faster than F9, due to various reasons (past experience, production line already setup, more risk tolerance, internal payload, RTLS, more weather tolerance, etc)

Online Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #59 on: 01/04/2023 07:42 pm »
For 2021 the poll consensus was 34.
SpaceX actually launched 31 times, so we were a tad optimistic, but within the central distribution.
For 2022 the poll consensus was 40.
SpaceX blew right by that and launched 61 times.
Only one of us guessed correctly.
(and one overestimate at a value that might have been a crude joke from the 1970's  ;) )
For 2023 we are not even having a poll. :(
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Tags: Falcon 9 SpaceX 
 

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