Poll

How many SpaceX orbital flight attempts do you anticipate in 2022?

1
0 (0%)
2
2 (2.1%)
3
1 (1%)
4
0 (0%)
5
1 (1%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
0 (0%)
11
0 (0%)
12
0 (0%)
13
0 (0%)
14
0 (0%)
15
0 (0%)
16
0 (0%)
17
0 (0%)
18
0 (0%)
19
0 (0%)
20
0 (0%)
21
0 (0%)
22
0 (0%)
23
0 (0%)
24
0 (0%)
25
0 (0%)
26
1 (1%)
27
0 (0%)
28
1 (1%)
29
2 (2.1%)
30
1 (1%)
31
0 (0%)
32
4 (4.2%)
33
0 (0%)
34
2 (2.1%)
35
7 (7.3%)
36
7 (7.3%)
37
4 (4.2%)
38
3 (3.1%)
39
4 (4.2%)
40
8 (8.3%)
41
2 (2.1%)
42
17 (17.7%)
43
1 (1%)
44
2 (2.1%)
45
5 (5.2%)
46
2 (2.1%)
47
3 (3.1%)
48
2 (2.1%)
49
0 (0%)
50
6 (6.3%)
51
0 (0%)
52
3 (3.1%)
53
1 (1%)
54
0 (0%)
55
1 (1%)
56
0 (0%)
57
1 (1%)
58
0 (0%)
59
0 (0%)
60
0 (0%)
61
1 (1%)
62
0 (0%)
63
0 (0%)
64
0 (0%)
65
0 (0%)
66
0 (0%)
67
0 (0%)
68
0 (0%)
69
1 (1%)
70
0 (0%)
More than 70!!!!
0 (0%)
0 (zero, goose egg, none, nada, zip) (on the bright side if you pick this one you probably will know you were wrong way before anyone else!!!)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 96

Voting closed: 01/20/2022 10:48 pm


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022  (Read 24915 times)

Offline soyuzu

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #20 on: 06/21/2022 01:11 pm »

- 12 F9 Starlink (Will be affected by chip shortage and possible shift of some of the later year Starlink sats being launched on a couple of Starship flights.)


Already exceeded.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #21 on: 06/21/2022 06:52 pm »

- 12 F9 Starlink (Will be affected by chip shortage and possible shift of some of the later year Starlink sats being launched on a couple of Starship flights.)


Already exceeded.
Which is why my position of a value of 50 launches for this year is likely to be low by 5 or more launches. Although a bunch of other launches are moving off into 2023. Which is moderating the how far under my estimate currently seems to be.

Offline jketch

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #22 on: 06/29/2022 10:52 pm »
Halfway through the year and SpaceX is at a very impressive 27 orbital launch attempts (all successful). It will be hard to keep up the pace, but if they manage 54, only 4 out of 96 voters will have voted high. Hopefully the back half of the year includes at least one SS attempt.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #23 on: 06/30/2022 05:56 am »
Halfway through the year and SpaceX is at a very impressive 27 orbital launch attempts (all successful). It will be hard to keep up the pace, but if they manage 54, only 4 out of 96 voters will have voted high. Hopefully the back half of the year includes at least one SS attempt.
With less Falcon Heavy launches, maybe just one. Pad LC-39A have more launch slots available for Starlink deployment. Also there are the possible monthly Starship orbital test flights to add to the total. So maybe only 1 or 2 voters have a high enough number of orbital launches.

Offline crandles57

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #24 on: 07/02/2022 12:40 pm »
16 Falcons per quarter has now been demonstrated to be possible.

13 +16 + 16 + 16 = 61
+ any starship orbital attempts (5 per year is less than 1 per two months rather than monthly. Musk suggestion ready by July and another ready by August shouldn't be interpreted to mean monthly launches will happen.)

Perhaps it is only 1 person that has gone too high.

But different customer payloads are more likely to have delays than identical mass produced starlinks that spaceX is familiar with. Q2 had 7 of 16 launches being Starlink which may well be a higher proportion than in rest of year. ~27 non starlink planned though some of those will be delayed to 2023.

Offline freddo411

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #25 on: 07/02/2022 04:18 pm »
How quant are the criticisms that the HLS fueling operations are too “immensely complex” given the cadence that SpaceX is currently demonstrating with falcon9.   Clearly SX can handle the ground system operations of that scale (and more)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #26 on: 07/03/2022 11:23 pm »
Halfway through the year and SpaceX is at a very impressive 27 orbital launch attempts (all successful). It will be hard to keep up the pace, but if they manage 54, only 4 out of 96 voters will have voted high. Hopefully the back half of the year includes at least one SS attempt.

Speaking of pace, here is my graph tracking SpaceX's pace of launches.
The black points are the number of launches within the preceding 12 months.
It has been steadily rising from 31 for last year to almost 40 now.
The red line is the recent pace, taken by averaging the intervals before the last ten launches and dividing that into a year.
After hitting nearly 80 in May, it is settling in the 60's.
"Blistering" is a good word for it.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #27 on: 07/23/2022 05:11 am »
July is now the 4th month in a row with at least 5 launches. April had 6, July is planned to have 6 and in 30 days from June 17th to July 17th SpaceX managed 8 launches!

If August to December carry on at the same rate as April to July then SpaceX will hit 60 for the year. Even a comparatively modest 4 launches per month from now reaches 53 for the year.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #28 on: 07/23/2022 05:29 am »
July is now the 4th month in a row with at least 5 launches. April had 6, July is planned to have 6 and in 30 days from June 17th to July 17th SpaceX managed 8 launches!

If August to December carry on at the same rate as April to July then SpaceX will hit 60 for the year. Even a comparatively modest 4 launches per month from now reaches 53 for the year.
There are 30 more identified launches on the F9/FH manifest in 2022:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2022_2
I'm skeptical about the FH launches, but this does not count any Starship launches.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #29 on: 07/23/2022 10:01 am »
July is now the 4th month in a row with at least 5 launches. April had 6, July is planned to have 6 and in 30 days from June 17th to July 17th SpaceX managed 8 launches!

If August to December carry on at the same rate as April to July then SpaceX will hit 60 for the year. Even a comparatively modest 4 launches per month from now reaches 53 for the year.
There are 30 more identified launches on the F9/FH manifest in 2022:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2022_2
I'm skeptical about the FH launches, but this does not count any Starship launches.

I can see up to 10 of the launches currently manifested for commercial/government satellites being delayed to 2023 or later due to payload issues. Any cancellation or delay could see a launch of a Starlink group instead.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #30 on: 08/31/2022 06:27 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1564953855384817666

Quote
SpaceX launched its 39th rocket of 2022 last night from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company has now launched a Falcon 9 every 6.2 days this year, putting them on pace for a total of 55 to 60. I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Quote
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year

Offline AmigaClone

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #31 on: 09/01/2022 01:58 am »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1564953855384817666

Quote
SpaceX launched its 39th rocket of 2022 last night from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company has now launched a Falcon 9 every 6.2 days this year, putting them on pace for a total of 55 to 60. I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Quote
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year

Did some calculations on what it would take based on average time between launches at SLC40 and SLC4E. While a challenge, it doesn't appear an impossible goal for SpaceX to launch 100 F9s. On the other hand, FH or Starship launches from 39A likely would reduce those chances.

Offline Wolfram66

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #32 on: 09/01/2022 02:22 am »
37

Offline david1971

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #33 on: 09/01/2022 03:27 am »
At 39, I think Falcon 9 now holds the American record for successful orbital launches in a year.

(From Ed's site)
Years that Atlas had 16+ successful orbital launches (along with failures):
1962         16(3)
1964         18(3)
1965         19(5)
1966         33(3)

Thor/Delta:
1960     21(7)       
1961     23(7)       
1962     38(4)       
1963     29(5)       
1964     32(4)       
1965     33(2)       
1966     24(2)       
1967     28(0)     
1968     21(2)     
1969     22(2)         
1970     16(0)   
I flew on SOFIA four times.

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #34 on: 09/05/2022 04:21 am »
Another (round number) milestone has been hit.
Within the last year (365.24 days) SpaceX has conducted 50 launches, all successful.
So far this year, they have launched 40 times
The pace of the last ten launches is one every 5.2 days, or over 70 per year.
If they keep this up for the rest of the year they will have 66 launches in 2022.
Those 40 launches match the consensus from our poll for the entire year, and the last third of the year has barely started.
edit: If SpaceX only gets close to that number of launches we will ALL have been insufficiently optimistic in the poll with the exception of the single, curious vote for 69.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2022 04:50 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #35 on: 09/06/2022 06:51 pm »
Huh, I voted 37, and I'm on the low side of current voters.

…and I’m WAY off. It’s the beginning of September and we’re already at 40. Falcon 9 has officially exceeded my expectations.

Workhorse.
« Last Edit: 09/06/2022 06:52 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline c4fusion

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #36 on: 09/19/2022 01:30 am »
Congrats, SpaceX!  They have reached the mode of this poll and the cheeky answer that I answered this year!  I look forward to a hopefully very successful next 3.5 months!

Online Steve D

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #37 on: 09/19/2022 01:56 am »
The poll specifies "Flight attempts". Do the scrubs count too? I mean, they are an attempt....  ;D


Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #38 on: 10/09/2022 07:36 am »
Progress so far this year is just about on-track for 60

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1578972106980986882

Quote
@elonmusk's 60 launches plan as of Oct 8, 2022

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #39 on: 11/13/2022 06:51 am »
Still on track for 60 and now only 5 people predicted more flights than SpaceX have done so far, still 7 weeks left in the year

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1591637431211921408

Quote
@elonmusk's 60 launches plan as of Nov 12, 2022

Tags: Falcon 9 SpaceX 
 

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