Poll

How many SpaceX orbital flight attempts do you anticipate in 2022?

1
0 (0%)
2
2 (2.1%)
3
1 (1%)
4
0 (0%)
5
1 (1%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
0 (0%)
11
0 (0%)
12
0 (0%)
13
0 (0%)
14
0 (0%)
15
0 (0%)
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0 (0%)
17
0 (0%)
18
0 (0%)
19
0 (0%)
20
0 (0%)
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0 (0%)
22
0 (0%)
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0 (0%)
24
0 (0%)
25
0 (0%)
26
1 (1%)
27
0 (0%)
28
1 (1%)
29
2 (2.1%)
30
1 (1%)
31
0 (0%)
32
4 (4.2%)
33
0 (0%)
34
2 (2.1%)
35
7 (7.3%)
36
7 (7.3%)
37
4 (4.2%)
38
3 (3.1%)
39
4 (4.2%)
40
8 (8.3%)
41
2 (2.1%)
42
17 (17.7%)
43
1 (1%)
44
2 (2.1%)
45
5 (5.2%)
46
2 (2.1%)
47
3 (3.1%)
48
2 (2.1%)
49
0 (0%)
50
6 (6.3%)
51
0 (0%)
52
3 (3.1%)
53
1 (1%)
54
0 (0%)
55
1 (1%)
56
0 (0%)
57
1 (1%)
58
0 (0%)
59
0 (0%)
60
0 (0%)
61
1 (1%)
62
0 (0%)
63
0 (0%)
64
0 (0%)
65
0 (0%)
66
0 (0%)
67
0 (0%)
68
0 (0%)
69
1 (1%)
70
0 (0%)
More than 70!!!!
0 (0%)
0 (zero, goose egg, none, nada, zip) (on the bright side if you pick this one you probably will know you were wrong way before anyone else!!!)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 96

Voting closed: 01/20/2022 10:48 pm


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022  (Read 24909 times)

Offline Lar

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POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« on: 12/27/2021 09:42 pm »
Number of SpaceX orbital flight attempts in 2022

Yet another year of this poll. It's been fun!  Here it is... it's your chance to give us your best guess on how many orbital flight attempts SpaceX will have next year. Please read this post carefully, all the way to the bottom. The rules have been clarified (I used more colors, that's gotta help) and simplified (not really) and we have even more historical data for you to pore over than before. We had over 300 (302 is over 300) voters four years ago and there wasn't even a prize! Three years ago,  around 130ish...  two years ago, 123... maybe the lack of prize did it? Last year, 147.. Sadly, no prize this year either, fifth year in a row. But you want to vote anyway. 123? 147?Those are rookie numbers.

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2022:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55470



Prior Results

Number of SpaceX flights in 2021 poll thread (total as of this writing: 31, 0 pending )
      3 Cargo Dragons: CRS-22 (C209.1), CRS-23 (C208.2), CRS-24 (C209.2)
      3 Crew Dragons: Crew-2 (C206.2 Endeavour), Inspiration4 (C207.2 Resilience), Crew-3 (C210.1 Endurance),
      8 non Dragon/non Starlink: (Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, SXM-8, GPS III-05, Transporter 2, DART, IXPE, Turksat 5B)
      17 Starlink: 16 v1.0 (60 sats), 18 v1.0 (60 sats), 19 v1.0 (60 sats), 17 v1.0 (60 sats), 20 v1.0 (60 sats), 21 v1.0 (60 sats), 22 v1.0 (60 sats), 23 v1.0 (60 sats), 24 v1.0 (60 sats) , 25 v1.0 (60 sats) , 27 v1.0 (60 sats) , 26 v1.0 (52 sats+rideshares), 28 v1.0 (60 sats), (numbering changed in the middle)... Group 2-1 (v1.5 L1, 51 sats), Group 4-1 (53 sats), Group 4-3 (48 sats+rideshares),  Group 4-4 (52 sats) 
      0 Abort tests that actually reached orbit accidentally
      (Note that the Abort Test does not count as an orbital flight under our rules, although WP counts it as a launch)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52633.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2021:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52634.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2020 poll thread (actual total: 26 )
      2 Cargo Dragons: CRS-20 (last original Dragon) and CRS-21 (first version Cargo Dragon 22
      2 Crew Dragons: Demo-2 and Crew-1
      7 non Dragon/non Starlink: (GPS III-03, ANASIS-II, SAOCOM 1B, GPS III-04, Sentinel-6, SXM 7, NROL-108)
      14 Starlink: (Starlink 2 to Starlink 15)
      0 Abort tests that actually reached orbit accidentally
      (Note that the Abort Test does not count as an orbital flight under our rules, although WP counts it as a launch)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49675.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2020:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49707.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2019 poll thread (actual total: 13 )
      3 cargo Dragons: CRS-17, 18, and 19
      1 Crew Dragon: Spx-DM-1
      2 Falcon Heavy: (Arabsat 6A,STP-2 (US Air Force) )
      6 non Dragon: (Iridium NEXT 8 (the last one), Nusantara Satu/SpaceIL/GTO-1,Starlink v0.9,RADARSAT,AMOS-17, Starlink v1 Flt 1,JCSat-18 / Kacific 1)
      1 Starlink: (Starlink v1 Flt 2)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46973

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2019:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46972.0


Number of SpaceX flights in 2018 poll thread (actual total: 21)
      3 Dragons: CRS-14, 15, and 16
      1 Falcon Heavy: (FH Demo/Tesla Roadster)
      17 F9 non Dragon: (Zuma, GovSat-1 (SES-16), PAZ & Microsat 2a/2b, Hispasat 1F (30W-6), Iridium NEXT (Flight 5), NASA (TESS), Bangabandhu-1, Iridium NEXT 6/GRACE-FO, SES-12, Telstar 19 Vantage, Iridium NEXT (Flight 7), Merah Putih (Telkom 4), Telstar 18 Vantage/Apstar-5C, SAOCOM 1A, Es'hail 2, SSO-A,GPS III-01)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43942.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2018:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44407.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2017 poll thread (actual total: 16 and 2 pending as of late Dec 2017 writing)
      3 Dragons: CRS-10, 11,12 and one pending... CRS-13 (pending)
      13 non Dragon: Iridium-1 (1-10), EchoStar-23, SES-10, NROL-76, Inmarsat-5, BulgariaSat-1, Iridium-2 (11-20), Intelsat 35e, FORMOSAT-5, OTV-5 (X-37B), SES-11 / EchoStar 105, Iridium-3 (21-30) Koreasat 5A )
      1 non Dragon pending as of poll start last year: Iridium-4 (31-40)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2017:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41825.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2016 poll thread (actual total: 8,
      2 Dragons: CRS-8, and CRS 9
      6 non Dragon: Jason-3, SES-9, JCSAT-14, Thaicom 8, Eutelsat 117 West B/ABS-2A, JCSAT-16
      1 non Dragon pad anomaly: AMOS-6 )
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39071.0

Companion poll for core recoveries in 2016: (actual total: 5 successes of 8 tries)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=39219.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2015 poll thread (actual total: 7,
        3 Dragons: CRS-5, CRS-6, and CRS-7 (failed),
        3 non Dragon: DSCOVR, ABS-3A/Eutelsat 115 West B, TurkmenAlem52E/MonacoSAT )
        PLUS ORBCOMM-2 RTF which happened after the 2016 poll started and featured the first successful first stage landing.
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=36377.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2014 poll thread (actual total: 6, 2 Dragons: CRS-3, and CRS-4)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2013 poll thread (actual total: 3, 1 Dragon: CRS-2)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=30684.0

Number of SpaceX flights in 2012 poll thread (actual total: 2, 2 Dragons: C2+ and CRS-1)
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27858.0



References

Totals: F9  from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2020


           Dragon from Wikipedia

Salo's US Flight Schedule
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=8184.0

gongora's manifest thread: (note, this periodically changes threads because it grows so rapidly, this is as of Dec '18):
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.0
Here's an "archival copy" of the manifest as it was at the end of the year (updated when available)
  -- 2017 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1763346#msg1763346
  -- 2018 http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1891754#msg1891754
 -- 2019 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2025943#msg2025943
 -- 2020 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2173906#msg2173906
 -- 2021 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2325455#msg2325455

SpaceX launch log:
   http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=40544.msg1550541#msg1550541

SpaceX Official Flight Manifest
http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Anik's Schedule of ISS flight events
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=61.0

NASA's Consolidated Launch Schedule
http://www.nasa.gov/missions/highlights/schedule.html


Current 2022-23 SpaceX Flights Scheduled

U.S. daylight saving time starts second Sunday in March, ends first Sunday in November, time changes at 2:00 a.m. local time

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- .--- ------ .---  ----------------------------  --- .-----  -----  ----
2022-01-13F9.L?SpaceX Transporter-3SSO.C-40 .
2022-01 (NET)F910xx-xSStarlink (next Florida)LEO~14kC.
2022-01-late/-5F910xx-x.CSG-2SSO2240C-40.
2022F9.SStarlink (next Vandenberg)LEO~16kV.
2022-early (NET)F9..O3B mPOWER 1-3MEO~5kC.
2022-earlyHNNNSXSUSSF-44GEO.C-39A(H4)
2022-02-02~F9N.NROL-87SSO?V-4E .
2022-02-28F9..Axiom AX-1 (crewed)LEO.C-39A.
2022-Q1F9..Intuitive Machines IM-1TLI?C-39A .
2022 S..Starship Orbital Test 1LEO.B.
2022-03/04F9..SpaceX Transporter-4SSO.C .
2022-04-midF910xx-xSCCtCap Crew-4LEO.C-39A.
2022-04F9..Nilesat-301GTO4100C-40.
2022-04F9..EnMAPSSO.C .
2022-H1H.SXSViaSat 3 Americas/ArcturusGEO~6kC-39A(H6)
2022-05F9..CRS2 SpX-25LEO.C-39A.
2022-05-mid (NET)F9R.Legion F1 (maybe rideshare)SSO.C/V.
2022HN.USSF-52GTO.C-39A(H5)
2022-06F9..SpaceX Transporter-5SSO.C/V .
2022F9..SARah 1SSO~2200C/V.
2022-Q2F9.XO3B mPOWER 4-6MEO~7kC.
2022F9..SARah 2/3SSO~3600C/V .
2022F9RSGPS III-6MEO4400C
2022-Q3F9..Galaxy 31/32GTO.C.
2022-Q3F9..Galaxy 33/34GTO.C.
2022-Q3F9R.Intelsat 40e with TEMPOGTO.C.
2022-H2F9.SAmazonas NexusGTO4500C.
2022-08-01  1400/-4HN.PsycheESC.C-39A(H7)
2022-08F9..Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter?678C.
2022-09F9..CRS2 SpX-26LEO.C-39A.
2022-09F9..SDA Tranche 0 Flight 1PLR~6kV-4E .
2022-Q3H.SXSUSSF-67..C-39A(H8)
2022-Q3F9..SES-18 / SES-19GTO.C.
2022F9R.WorldView Legion flight 2LEO.C.
2022-09 (NET)F910xx-xSCCtCap Crew-5LEO.C-39A.
2022-10F9..SpaceX Transporter-6SSO.C/V .
2022-Fall (NET)F9..Axiom AX-2 (crewed)LEO.C-39A.
2022-11-15F9..SWOTLEO2000V-4E.
2022-Q4F9..O3B mPOWER 7-9MEO~7kC.
2022F..Inmarsat I-6 F2 (GX6B)GTO.C.
2022-Q4F9..Intuitive Machines IM-2TLI?C-39A .
2022 (NET)F9N.NROL-85LEO?V-4E .

NOTES:
(H4) USSF-44 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:1064-1  Center:1066-1  Side2: 1065-1
(H5) USSF-52 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:1070-1  Side2: 10xx-x
(H6) Viasat 3 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:1068-1  Side2: 10xx-x
(H7) Psyche - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H8) USSF-67 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H9) Astrobotic/VIPER- Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H10) GOES U - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x
(H11) Europa Clipper - Serial Numbers:  side cores from Psyche
(H12) PPE/HALO - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx-x  Center:10xx-x  Side2: 10xx-x

Companies that appear to have launch contracts for unspecified payloads:
Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Bigelow


(According to gongora's manifest thread with modification, and my editorial comments, and I won't update it post 1 Jan... if I bobbled something let me know... )

(Last year's list as of the time of the poll, for reference)
 
(any transcription errors from abridging this are mine, refer to the original post here:
SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5 header )

       Local        LV  Core   Ret- .                             .    Mass   .     Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC.   S/N    urn  Payload(s)                    Orb  (kg)   Site sion
------------------- .--- ------ .---  ----------------------------  --- .-----  -----  ----
2021-01-04*2027/-5F91060.4STürksat 5AGTO3500C-40.
2021-01-14 (NET)F9.SSpaceX Transporter-1SSO.C .
2021-01F9.SStarlink v1.0 L16LEO~16kC.
2021F9.SStarlink v1.0 L17LEO~16kC.
2021F9.SStarlink v1.0 L18LEO~16kC.
2021F9.SStarlink v1.0 L19LEO~16kC.
2021F9..SiriusXM SXM-8GTO>5400C.
2021-03-30 (NET)F91061.2SCCtCap Crew-2LEO.C-39A.
2021F9..SARah 1SSO~2200V-4E.
2021 late springHNNN?X?USSF-44GEO.C-39A(H4)
2021-05F9..CRS2 SpX-22LEO.C.
2021-06F9..Türksat 5BGTO4500C.
2021-06F9..SpaceX Transporter-2SSO.C/V .
2021HN.USSF-52GTO.C-39A.
2021-Q3F9..O3B mPOWER 1-3MEO~5kC(130)
2021F9..SARah 2/3SSO~3600V-4E .
2021-07F91062.2SGPS III-5MEO4400C
2021-07-21F9R.DARTESC~500V-4E.
2021-09F9..CRS2 SpX-23LEO.C.
2021-H2F9N.NROL-85LEO?C .
2021-09F9R.WorldView Legion flight 1LEO.V.
2021-09F910xx.xSCCtCap Crew-3LEO.C-39A.
2021-H2F9N.NROL-87SSO?V-4E .
2021-10F9..Intuitive Machines (R).?C-39A .
2021-11-20 (NET)F9R.IXPELEO337C-39A.
2021-11F9..CRS2 SpX-24LEO.C.
2021-12F9..SpaceX Transporter-3SSO.C/V .
2021-late (NET)F9R.WorldView Legion flight 2LEO.C.
2021-late (NET)F9..Axiom AX-1 (crewed)LEO.C-39A.
2021-late (NET)F9.SSpace Adventures DragonLEO.C-39A.
2021F9RSGPS III-6MEO4400C

NOTES:
(H4) USSF-44 - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx.1  Center:10xx.1  Side2: 10xx.1
(H5) Psyche - Serial Numbers:  Side1:10xx.1  Center:10xx.1  Side2: 10xx.1
(120) Intersputnik NationSat & co-passenger NET 2020
(130) 2 flights for O3B mPOWER in 2021
(150) Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter : Post

Companies that appear to have launch contracts for unspecified payloads:
Eutelsat, Inmarsat, Bigelow



 

Poll Rules
- Poll closes same time as last year, around Jan 20.
- This allows time for those out of town during the holidays
- This also prevents the thread from going on so long to make the poll unfair to early voters.
- Early voters don't know if certain launches happen or don't... take that into account when voting.
- No do-overs... I can't change anyone's vote without closing and reopening, and it wouldn't be fair anyway
- No late votes... I am not reopening the poll because you forgot. You can still post a rationale if you want.
- Please PM me with any questions/comments/concerns.  I've done what I can to make this orderly.
- UTC time is considered for any launches on Dec 31st (of either 2020 or 2021 or 2022 or 2023 (you get the idea)). T-0 time determines what year the launch was in.

Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second (or only if SSTO)  stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth (some wag last year pointed out that with rotation to get over the launch site again takes about 380 degrees for a LEO... yeah whatever. As I said last year if this actually happens, I will rule in a way to annoy the maximum number of people)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Comsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count. (this includes the starhopper, any starship suborbitals, any superheavy suborbitals)
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Starship tests count IF they are not suborbital. SSTO if they try it, or two stage. (so none counted so far)
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magesty, make the call.

Practical Examples
- CRS-7 COUNTED.
- Amos-6 DID NOT COUNT.
- An FH launch WILL COUNT as one launch, not three, obviously.
- Grasshopper and F9R-suborbital tests DID NOT COUNT.
- Equivalent ITS/BFR/Starship/whatever suborbital tests WILL NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon Pad Abort Test (May 6, 2015) DID NOT COUNT.
- The Dragon In-Flight Abort Test DID NOT COUNT. (WP counts it as a launch, fine whatever, it wasn't orbital)
- DM1 did count
- However, a failed commercial crew launch that results in a Dragon abort WILL COUNT if the launch otherwise counts (see CRS-7 vs AMOS-6.)



Rationale for "Number of Launches" thread
The original purpose of this thread was to get an intelligent discussion going on the number of launches that would actually take place.  At the beginning of 2012 and 2013, it was pretty unclear how many launches would take place those respective years. This was even true somewhat for 2014... as the 2014 poll makes clear. But collectively we did not do too bad...  On 2015 SpaceX was tracking to make something fairly close to our consensus until CRS-7 set them back... Again, in 2016, SpaceX was tracking to make pretty close to our consensus until AMOS-6 set them back... SpaceX had aggressive plans for 2017 too which they did well at. Ditto 2018, their planned launches didn't all happen but they set a new internal record.

NOTE: We're interested in your rationale, but not in "should I vote yet" and not in "this poll is flawed because..."... those posts might just get trimmed.. Not going to limit it to one post per person at this time, but if there is too much trivial back and forth we might.
« Last Edit: 12/29/2021 03:23 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #1 on: 12/27/2021 11:42 pm »
42

1 - It is pretty close to how many flights are in the manifest for '22, give or take.
2 - it's a cool number.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline niwax

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #2 on: 12/28/2021 12:50 am »
36 F9, 3 Starship. 39 total.
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #3 on: 12/28/2021 01:41 am »
Huh, I voted 37, and I'm on the low side of current voters.
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Offline Rebel44

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #4 on: 12/28/2021 11:01 am »
IMO: 42
34x F9
4x FH
4x SH+SS

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #5 on: 12/28/2021 04:53 pm »
Voted 50.

- 33 F9 & FH paying customers (NOTE there is 42 such on the manifest. But this coming year will be a lot like 2021 in that many of the payloads were delayed from 6 to 9 months. So used a 80% discounting of the manifest.)
- 12 F9 Starlink (Will be affected by chip shortage and possible shift of some of the later year Starlink sats being launched on a couple of Starship flights.)
- 5 Starship (Mostly Demo but some will carry Starlink sats.)

If you put down the max 42 paying+24 F9 Starlink+12 Starship and you would have 78 launches!!!! So a value of 50 is way down. Also a 10% +- on 20 launches is +-2 but on 50 is +-5. So a 10% accurate estimate yields a range of 45 to 55. But 2021 was closer to a 20% accuracy of the initial estimates, so that range is 40 to 60. Picking a specific number has a likely chance of happening at less than 5% and could be as low as 3%.

This year it is truly going to be a WAG (wild a__ guess).

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #6 on: 12/28/2021 05:17 pm »
The correct answer is in the lead!

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #7 on: 12/28/2021 07:49 pm »
42

1 - It is pretty close to how many flights are in the manifest for '22, give or take.
2 - it's a cool number.

You beat me to it!
42

My count of the manifest for 2022 is exactly 42, but it only includes 2 Starlink flights and a solitary Spaceship flight
They have already hit a pace of >40 per year over ten flights.
Last year I said that someday 42 would be the answer. 2022 could be it.
And for some of us 42 is the cool number

Hey!  It’s not infinitely improbable!
« Last Edit: 12/29/2021 06:42 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #8 on: 12/29/2021 03:26 am »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline Vultur

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #9 on: 12/30/2021 01:05 am »
I voted 36, but... lots of uncertainty here. The big questions IMO are Starlink production rate and SH/Starship launch license (plus whether there are any issues which lead to a pause in F9 launches).

Offline Rebel44

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #10 on: 12/30/2021 02:44 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #11 on: 12/30/2021 08:14 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.
The post introducing the poll is horrendously long but maybe a disclaimer that this includes BOTH Falcon and Starship ???

Unrelatedly, I see 42 with a plurality of votes.... I'm thinking that's because this is the first year that SpaceX are within striking distance of 40+ launches and we are all such geeks that we like 42.  A lot.   (See also Comga's remarks, just above)
« Last Edit: 12/30/2021 08:16 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #12 on: 01/02/2022 06:37 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Agreed
Those entries will play havoc with any averaging or other analysis.
And as Lar said last year, they’re going to know they were wrong real soon.😁

To the four who voted for <6:
Were you thinking of Starship/Superheavy instead of all SpaceX orbital launches?

If you don’t want to post it publicly you could PM me.
I could even include a revised vote in the analysis. 😉
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline whitelancer64

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #13 on: 01/02/2022 06:52 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

Agreed
Those entries will play havoc with any averaging or other analysis.
And as Lar said last year, they’re going to know they were wrong real soon.😁

To the four who voted for <6:
Were you thinking of Starship/Superheavy instead of all SpaceX orbital launches?

If you don’t want to post it publicly you could PM me.
I could even include a revised vote in the analysis. 😉

They probably did it intentionally to mess with the statistics. I wouldn't have included less than 20 even as an option.
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Offline Tywin

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #14 on: 01/02/2022 07:12 pm »
Someone picked 2 and someone picked 5   ... wow that's pessimistic!

Maybe they were guessing the number of Starship orbital launches in 2022. Otherwise, those would be some seriously pessimistic predictions.

I had the mistake of thinking it was about the Starship and that's why I voted two...

Otherwise, I would say 45 rocket launches...

Sorry Lar, for the mistake...
« Last Edit: 01/02/2022 08:22 pm by Tywin »
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Online mandrewa

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #15 on: 01/02/2022 08:19 pm »
53 flights (5 Starship, 4 Falcon Heavy, and 44 Falcon 9)

I don't think SpaceX will be constrained by the number of payloads this year.  In fact, far from it, I suspect they will want to launch much more often than this.  I'm guessing 10 Falcon 9 launches from Vandenberg and four Falcon Heavy launches from Pad 39A, with each Falcon Heavy occupying the pad for an average of five weeks.  That leaves 84 weeks between Pad 39A and Pad 40 for the Falcon 9 launches.  If there is say on the eastern range an average of 17 days per Falcon 9 at a pad, that would give 34 Falcon 9 launches.

This is a slightly pessimistic forecast.  They may be able to do better.

Offline eriblo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #16 on: 01/23/2022 07:41 pm »
Just making sure to record my justification while I still remember it:

I voted 42, the same as last year and for the same obvious cultural reason ::)

Last year it felt optimistic but the 60-day average rate was actually 42 launches/year for 55 days in total in 2021 - the only problem was that they stopped launching during the summer/early fall...

This year it might be my most pessimistic SpaceX launch poll prediction. The 60 day average rate was 54/year at the time of voting (rising to 60/year if the next 3 go as planned) and they should have plenty of Starlinks to launch this year.

Offline DistantTemple

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #17 on: 01/23/2022 08:41 pm »
Would have said 56.... Didn't have closing date in my calendar. :-\
I always read from the "updated posts". Would help to have exiting things like this flagged on the home page... or in some way.
We can always grow new new dendrites. Reach out and make connections and your world will burst with new insights. Then repose in consciousness.

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #18 on: 03/02/2022 12:11 am »
Oops.  Forgot about this.  Sorry about that, Chief!

Same evaluation process as in years past.
The consensus, both arithmetic average and mean of the fitted Gaussian, was just over 40.
While the consensus formed early, this year it's as much due to rapidly diminishing interest to the general agreement.
We might as well cut it off before the first launch, or on January 1, as few waited until the last day.
With all the possible entries, and with all us HHGTTG fans choosing 42, (We're going to be lynched!") the distribution is looking less and less like a Gaussian
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #19 on: 06/19/2022 06:40 am »
https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1538409582900518912

Quote
With tonight’s launch of Globalstar FM15, SpaceX has flown 26 missions this year, an average of one launch every 6.5 days.

SpaceX has tied its total number of launches in 2020, and is on pace to exceed the tally of 31 Falcon 9 launches from last year by the end of July.

Offline soyuzu

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #20 on: 06/21/2022 01:11 pm »

- 12 F9 Starlink (Will be affected by chip shortage and possible shift of some of the later year Starlink sats being launched on a couple of Starship flights.)


Already exceeded.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #21 on: 06/21/2022 06:52 pm »

- 12 F9 Starlink (Will be affected by chip shortage and possible shift of some of the later year Starlink sats being launched on a couple of Starship flights.)


Already exceeded.
Which is why my position of a value of 50 launches for this year is likely to be low by 5 or more launches. Although a bunch of other launches are moving off into 2023. Which is moderating the how far under my estimate currently seems to be.

Offline jketch

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #22 on: 06/29/2022 10:52 pm »
Halfway through the year and SpaceX is at a very impressive 27 orbital launch attempts (all successful). It will be hard to keep up the pace, but if they manage 54, only 4 out of 96 voters will have voted high. Hopefully the back half of the year includes at least one SS attempt.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #23 on: 06/30/2022 05:56 am »
Halfway through the year and SpaceX is at a very impressive 27 orbital launch attempts (all successful). It will be hard to keep up the pace, but if they manage 54, only 4 out of 96 voters will have voted high. Hopefully the back half of the year includes at least one SS attempt.
With less Falcon Heavy launches, maybe just one. Pad LC-39A have more launch slots available for Starlink deployment. Also there are the possible monthly Starship orbital test flights to add to the total. So maybe only 1 or 2 voters have a high enough number of orbital launches.

Online crandles57

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #24 on: 07/02/2022 12:40 pm »
16 Falcons per quarter has now been demonstrated to be possible.

13 +16 + 16 + 16 = 61
+ any starship orbital attempts (5 per year is less than 1 per two months rather than monthly. Musk suggestion ready by July and another ready by August shouldn't be interpreted to mean monthly launches will happen.)

Perhaps it is only 1 person that has gone too high.

But different customer payloads are more likely to have delays than identical mass produced starlinks that spaceX is familiar with. Q2 had 7 of 16 launches being Starlink which may well be a higher proportion than in rest of year. ~27 non starlink planned though some of those will be delayed to 2023.

Offline freddo411

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #25 on: 07/02/2022 04:18 pm »
How quant are the criticisms that the HLS fueling operations are too “immensely complex” given the cadence that SpaceX is currently demonstrating with falcon9.   Clearly SX can handle the ground system operations of that scale (and more)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #26 on: 07/03/2022 11:23 pm »
Halfway through the year and SpaceX is at a very impressive 27 orbital launch attempts (all successful). It will be hard to keep up the pace, but if they manage 54, only 4 out of 96 voters will have voted high. Hopefully the back half of the year includes at least one SS attempt.

Speaking of pace, here is my graph tracking SpaceX's pace of launches.
The black points are the number of launches within the preceding 12 months.
It has been steadily rising from 31 for last year to almost 40 now.
The red line is the recent pace, taken by averaging the intervals before the last ten launches and dividing that into a year.
After hitting nearly 80 in May, it is settling in the 60's.
"Blistering" is a good word for it.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #27 on: 07/23/2022 05:11 am »
July is now the 4th month in a row with at least 5 launches. April had 6, July is planned to have 6 and in 30 days from June 17th to July 17th SpaceX managed 8 launches!

If August to December carry on at the same rate as April to July then SpaceX will hit 60 for the year. Even a comparatively modest 4 launches per month from now reaches 53 for the year.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #28 on: 07/23/2022 05:29 am »
July is now the 4th month in a row with at least 5 launches. April had 6, July is planned to have 6 and in 30 days from June 17th to July 17th SpaceX managed 8 launches!

If August to December carry on at the same rate as April to July then SpaceX will hit 60 for the year. Even a comparatively modest 4 launches per month from now reaches 53 for the year.
There are 30 more identified launches on the F9/FH manifest in 2022:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2022_2
I'm skeptical about the FH launches, but this does not count any Starship launches.

Online AmigaClone

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #29 on: 07/23/2022 10:01 am »
July is now the 4th month in a row with at least 5 launches. April had 6, July is planned to have 6 and in 30 days from June 17th to July 17th SpaceX managed 8 launches!

If August to December carry on at the same rate as April to July then SpaceX will hit 60 for the year. Even a comparatively modest 4 launches per month from now reaches 53 for the year.
There are 30 more identified launches on the F9/FH manifest in 2022:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#2022_2
I'm skeptical about the FH launches, but this does not count any Starship launches.

I can see up to 10 of the launches currently manifested for commercial/government satellites being delayed to 2023 or later due to payload issues. Any cancellation or delay could see a launch of a Starlink group instead.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #30 on: 08/31/2022 06:27 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1564953855384817666

Quote
SpaceX launched its 39th rocket of 2022 last night from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company has now launched a Falcon 9 every 6.2 days this year, putting them on pace for a total of 55 to 60. I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Quote
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year

Online AmigaClone

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #31 on: 09/01/2022 01:58 am »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1564953855384817666

Quote
SpaceX launched its 39th rocket of 2022 last night from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The company has now launched a Falcon 9 every 6.2 days this year, putting them on pace for a total of 55 to 60. I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Quote
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year

Did some calculations on what it would take based on average time between launches at SLC40 and SLC4E. While a challenge, it doesn't appear an impossible goal for SpaceX to launch 100 F9s. On the other hand, FH or Starship launches from 39A likely would reduce those chances.

Offline Wolfram66

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #32 on: 09/01/2022 02:22 am »
37

Offline david1971

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #33 on: 09/01/2022 03:27 am »
At 39, I think Falcon 9 now holds the American record for successful orbital launches in a year.

(From Ed's site)
Years that Atlas had 16+ successful orbital launches (along with failures):
1962         16(3)
1964         18(3)
1965         19(5)
1966         33(3)

Thor/Delta:
1960     21(7)       
1961     23(7)       
1962     38(4)       
1963     29(5)       
1964     32(4)       
1965     33(2)       
1966     24(2)       
1967     28(0)     
1968     21(2)     
1969     22(2)         
1970     16(0)   
I flew on SOFIA four times.

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #34 on: 09/05/2022 04:21 am »
Another (round number) milestone has been hit.
Within the last year (365.24 days) SpaceX has conducted 50 launches, all successful.
So far this year, they have launched 40 times
The pace of the last ten launches is one every 5.2 days, or over 70 per year.
If they keep this up for the rest of the year they will have 66 launches in 2022.
Those 40 launches match the consensus from our poll for the entire year, and the last third of the year has barely started.
edit: If SpaceX only gets close to that number of launches we will ALL have been insufficiently optimistic in the poll with the exception of the single, curious vote for 69.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2022 04:50 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #35 on: 09/06/2022 06:51 pm »
Huh, I voted 37, and I'm on the low side of current voters.

…and I’m WAY off. It’s the beginning of September and we’re already at 40. Falcon 9 has officially exceeded my expectations.

Workhorse.
« Last Edit: 09/06/2022 06:52 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline c4fusion

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #36 on: 09/19/2022 01:30 am »
Congrats, SpaceX!  They have reached the mode of this poll and the cheeky answer that I answered this year!  I look forward to a hopefully very successful next 3.5 months!

Offline Steve D

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #37 on: 09/19/2022 01:56 am »
The poll specifies "Flight attempts". Do the scrubs count too? I mean, they are an attempt....  ;D


Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #38 on: 10/09/2022 07:36 am »
Progress so far this year is just about on-track for 60

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1578972106980986882

Quote
@elonmusk's 60 launches plan as of Oct 8, 2022

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #39 on: 11/13/2022 06:51 am »
Still on track for 60 and now only 5 people predicted more flights than SpaceX have done so far, still 7 weeks left in the year

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1591637431211921408

Quote
@elonmusk's 60 launches plan as of Nov 12, 2022

Online AmigaClone

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #40 on: 11/13/2022 11:43 pm »
I fully expect SpaceX to reach the 60 launches in 365 days mark - even if that is not the situation on 31 December 2022.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #41 on: 11/30/2022 02:16 am »
I fully expect SpaceX to reach the 60 launches in 365 days mark - even if that is not the situation on 31 December 2022.
A total of 54 SpaceX launches have been conducted this year at the current time of writing, and with a Falcon 9 launch scheduled for tomorrow and additional launches planned for December, SpaceX might ace little over 60 orbital launches in 2022.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #42 on: 12/14/2022 06:27 am »
The poll specifies "Flight attempts". Do the scrubs count too? I mean, they are an attempt....  ;D



Absolutely CRAZY suggestion. Read the rules! They are right there in the first post.

Quote
Guidelines for "Number of Launches" thread/poll
A "launch" in this case means:
- The liftoff of a launch vehicle from the pad, with a mission that includes the objectives of second (or only if SSTO)  stage cutoff and delivering a payload to orbit.  (this includes earth orbits and direct injection to other orbits such as solar, etc. It also, to forestall nitpicking, includes hyperbolic trajectories... what it doesn't include is any trajectory that (is intended to) return to earth without having performed at least one complete orbit of Earth (some wag last year pointed out that with rotation to get over the launch site again takes about 380 degrees for a LEO... yeah whatever. As I said last year if this actually happens, I will rule in a way to annoy the maximum number of people)
- The launch does not have to "succeed".. if the engines fire with intent to launch, that's enough, unless the vehicle does not move at all, and survives so another attempt can be tried
- This includes any CRS Dragon missions, Comsats, mass simulators, interplanetary missions, etc
- Scrubs and static fires do not count.
- Suborbital tests and missions DO NOT count. (this includes the starhopper, any starship suborbitals, any superheavy suborbitals)
- Suborbital core returns, should any happen, also DO NOT count (inasmuch as they are part of some other mission, and there is a separate poll for core returns)
- Launch abort tests also DO NOT count.
- Starship tests count IF they are not suborbital. SSTO if they try it, or two stage. (so none counted so far)
- Any confusion on this, please send me a PM before posting.
- There might be a few tiny edge cases that still don't clearly bin to "launch" or "not launch" ... in that case I will, in my Imperial Magesty, make the call.

Bolded for emphasis.

tl;dr - NO
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"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #43 on: 12/14/2022 06:28 am »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.
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Online rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #44 on: 12/17/2022 08:27 pm »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

Maybe a poll(s) instead about SpaceX launch and landing milestones?

Offline schaban

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #45 on: 12/18/2022 12:02 am »
Limit 2023 poll to starship only

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #46 on: 12/18/2022 12:30 am »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

Oh, I do think so, and would again track the results as they come in.

It might be good to start the poling soon and end it with the year.

But please do something to limit the number of choices, like pairs of numbers between say, 24 and 84.

As of today, SpaceX has launched 59 times, one shy of Musk’s goal but more than all but two of our 96 guesses last year. 

I am looking forward to my usual post New Year’s look-back in this thread.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2022 12:30 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline SweetWater

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #47 on: 12/18/2022 12:44 am »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

The poll is fun to participate in and to follow; however, SpaceX's ability to hit a launch cadence have been pretty well proven out this year. Barring a stand-down due to a launch failure, an issue with their launch infrastructure, or a lack of payloads, there is every reason to suspect they will have a similar number of launches in 2023 as they did this year.

Maybe it would be interesting to do a poll for SpaceX's share of total global launches, the number of SpaceX launches of Starlink 2 satellites, or something similar.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #48 on: 12/30/2022 07:02 am »
So amazingly this poll has a sole winner at 61 missions, all successful. Congratulations!

And only one person over predicted … so pleased nearly all of us got this year so wrong  :)

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #49 on: 12/30/2022 02:15 pm »
So amazingly this poll has a sole winner at 61 missions, all successful. Congratulations!
Isn't it a solid proof that Elon is a member of this forum. :)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #50 on: 12/30/2022 02:38 pm »
This is insane. I voted for just 37.

Falcon 9 is an absolute machine. It’ll be the end of the decade before Starship meets that launch rate even on an optimistic timeline.
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Offline freddo411

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #51 on: 12/30/2022 02:48 pm »
Is there any point in doing a poll again next year? I'm torn. It's a fair bit of work for what appears to be a diminishing return.

Yes, I enjoy the poll.   Look at the surprizes from this year

Cheers.

Offline freddo411

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #52 on: 12/30/2022 02:52 pm »
This is insane. I voted for just 37.

Falcon 9 is an absolute machine. It’ll be the end of the decade before Starship meets that launch rate even on an optimistic timeline.


This HAS been an impressive year.

With respect to SS, there are two seemingly valid lines of argument:

* It is a new system, it will take time to iron out the bugs, so launch rate will be slow to start with

* SpaceX has tons of experience with F9 that is very likely to carry over.   Thus, we may see a very surprising, very quick ramp up of Starship launches

I don't know which factor will dominate.   I can confidently predict that it won't take SX and starship 7 years to reach a once a week cadence -- that's too pessimistic.

Offline BitBanger

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #53 on: 12/30/2022 05:54 pm »
So amazingly this poll has a sole winner at 61 missions, all successful. Congratulations!

Thanks. It was purely a lucky guess.  I counted the manifest at the beginning of the year and added a guess as to the number of Starlink flights.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #54 on: 12/30/2022 07:54 pm »
I voted 50 and based it on past of what was manifested to amount actually launched. I had not thought that SpaceX would launch 33 Starlinks but used just 24 in my estimate.

Everyone was surprised. Even the 2 that put in 61 and the even higher one.

So next year if the weather holds up like it did this year for most of next year the number should be nearly as surprising as this year with another higher number.

Offline niwax

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #55 on: 12/30/2022 09:09 pm »
This is insane. I voted for just 37.

Falcon 9 is an absolute machine. It’ll be the end of the decade before Starship meets that launch rate even on an optimistic timeline.


This HAS been an impressive year.

With respect to SS, there are two seemingly valid lines of argument:

* It is a new system, it will take time to iron out the bugs, so launch rate will be slow to start with

* SpaceX has tons of experience with F9 that is very likely to carry over.   Thus, we may see a very surprising, very quick ramp up of Starship launches

I don't know which factor will dominate.   I can confidently predict that it won't take SX and starship 7 years to reach a once a week cadence -- that's too pessimistic.

The combination of these two factors is exactly what leads to very steep S curves that humans are very bad at predicting. It's how you go from "Haha, they are having trouble making cars because they are trying to put loads of automation into their production line" to "How the hell are they making 500k units a year in one factory?"

The first launch will come at a leisurely pace, but I would expect them to come in quicker and quicker after that.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #56 on: 12/30/2022 09:30 pm »
Yeah, I’m expecting maybe a similar curve as for F9. Took a while before F9 was launching regularly, and SpaceX were mocked for it. Now, F9 dominates everything.

It took like 10 years to get here. (First F9 v1.0 launched in 2010, but I honestly feel like v1.1 and later are a different vehicle, and that was first launched in 2012.)
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Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #57 on: 12/30/2022 10:35 pm »
Next year let's have separate polls for the number of Falcon (including heavy) launches and the number of Starship launches.

Offline su27k

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #58 on: 12/31/2022 02:15 am »
Yeah, I’m expecting maybe a similar curve as for F9. Took a while before F9 was launching regularly, and SpaceX were mocked for it. Now, F9 dominates everything.

It took like 10 years to get here. (First F9 v1.0 launched in 2010, but I honestly feel like v1.1 and later are a different vehicle, and that was first launched in 2012.)

This would be a good poll topic: How many years will Starship reach 60 launches per year after its first launch.

My bet is it will be significantly faster than F9, due to various reasons (past experience, production line already setup, more risk tolerance, internal payload, RTLS, more weather tolerance, etc)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #59 on: 01/04/2023 07:42 pm »
For 2021 the poll consensus was 34.
SpaceX actually launched 31 times, so we were a tad optimistic, but within the central distribution.
For 2022 the poll consensus was 40.
SpaceX blew right by that and launched 61 times.
Only one of us guessed correctly.
(and one overestimate at a value that might have been a crude joke from the 1970's  ;) )
For 2023 we are not even having a poll. :(
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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #60 on: 01/12/2023 12:55 pm »
For 2023 we are not even having a poll. :(

Why not?

If not, how about number of Starship orbital launches in 2023 instead?

Offline deltaV

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #61 on: 01/12/2023 07:29 pm »
We should have two separate polls for SpaceX 2023 launches, one for Falcon family and one for Starship family.

Offline nicp

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #62 on: 01/13/2023 11:05 am »
We should have two separate polls for SpaceX 2023 launches, one for Falcon family and one for Starship family.
I think so too.
Re Falcon 9, I am dubious that SpaceX will reach their goal of 100 this year - if they had another pad then maybe.
That said, I was way wrong for 2022, I bet in the mid-30's.
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Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #63 on: 01/13/2023 08:01 pm »
We should have two separate polls for SpaceX 2023 launches, one for Falcon family and one for Starship family.
I think so too.
Re Falcon 9, I am dubious that SpaceX will reach their goal of 100 this year - if they had another pad then maybe.
That said, I was way wrong for 2022, I bet in the mid-30's.
If you want a poll, start one, or two, yourself.
We can't force Lar to run his again.
I didn't volunteer to do it either, so that's not a criticism.  These things consume time.
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Online crandles57

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #64 on: 01/15/2023 04:09 pm »
If you want a poll, start one, or two, yourself.
We can't force Lar to run his again.
I didn't volunteer to do it either, so that's not a criticism.  These things consume time.

How do we do so? I cannot see a 'new poll' button near the 'new topic' button.

Offline DeimosDream

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #65 on: 01/15/2023 05:09 pm »
If you want a poll, start one, or two, yourself.
We can't force Lar to run his again.
I didn't volunteer to do it either, so that's not a criticism.  These things consume time.

How do we do so? I cannot see a 'new poll' button near the 'new topic' button.

Only L2 members can create new polls.

Online CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #66 on: 02/04/2023 08:25 pm »
We should have two separate polls for SpaceX 2023 launches, one for Falcon family and one for Starship family.
I think so too.
Re Falcon 9, I am dubious that SpaceX will reach their goal of 100 this year - if they had another pad then maybe.
That said, I was way wrong for 2022, I bet in the mid-30's.
If you want a poll, start one, or two, yourself.
We can't force Lar to run his again.
I didn't volunteer to do it either, so that's not a criticism.  These things consume time.

Challenge accepted…
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Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #67 on: 02/08/2023 01:56 pm »
We should have two separate polls for SpaceX 2023 launches, one for Falcon family and one for Starship family.
I think so too.
Re Falcon 9, I am dubious that SpaceX will reach their goal of 100 this year - if they had another pad then maybe.
That said, I was way wrong for 2022, I bet in the mid-30's.
If you want a poll, start one, or two, yourself.
We can't force Lar to run his again.
I didn't volunteer to do it either, so that's not a criticism.  These things consume time.

Challenge accepted…

I lost the plot, meant to work on this before the end of the year, didn't... I was in Indonesia for 2 months, and I got engaged, so had a lot on my mind. I will try to see what's been done and help where I can.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2022
« Reply #68 on: 02/19/2023 10:23 pm »
The new one is up. A bit late... I cut a lot of corners too. 

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58338
« Last Edit: 02/19/2023 10:26 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Tags: Falcon 9 SpaceX 
 

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