Poll

Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?

New Glenn
1 (1.3%)
Starship
39 (52%)
Vulcan
31 (41.3%)
Zhuque-2
4 (5.3%)
other
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 75

Voting closed: 03/21/2021 06:36 pm


Author Topic: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?  (Read 19426 times)

Offline eeergo

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #20 on: 03/23/2023 05:58 am »
Another methalox rocket has left the pad, Terran-1, but didn't reach orbit either, like the first to be launched (Zhuque-2), actually failing at an earlier point in the flight (SES-1 vs 3rd stage vernier flight).

On to the next attempt, which looks like will again be ZQ-2's.
-DaviD-

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #21 on: 03/23/2023 08:53 am »
Another methalox rocket has left the pad, Terran-1, but didn't reach orbit either, like the first to be launched (Zhuque-2), actually failing at an earlier point in the flight (SES-1 vs 3rd stage vernier flight).

On to the next attempt, which looks like will again be ZQ-2's.
Did Terran 1 reach space ie cross karman line.

Offline PM3

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #22 on: 03/23/2023 08:55 am »
Did Terran 1 reach space ie cross karman line.

Yes, apogee > 128 km. But that is irrelevant here, as the poll is about going orbital.  And Zhuque-2 went higher in December 2022.
« Last Edit: 03/23/2023 09:29 am by PM3 »
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Offline eeergo

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #23 on: 03/23/2023 10:27 am »
Another methalox rocket has left the pad, Terran-1, but didn't reach orbit either, like the first to be launched (Zhuque-2), actually failing at an earlier point in the flight (SES-1 vs 3rd stage vernier flight).

On to the next attempt, which looks like will again be ZQ-2's.
Did Terran 1 reach space ie cross karman line.

As PM3 stated, Terran-1's apogee was above the Karman line, but ZQ-2's was over 3x higher (around 400 km).

Likewise, Terran-1's maximum velocity (at MECO) was around 7500 km/h, or 2 km/s, but Zhuque-2's managed a much closer velocity to orbital (around 5 km/s, or around 70% of orbital, vs Relativity's 25%).
-DaviD-

Offline eeergo

-DaviD-

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #25 on: 03/31/2023 03:53 pm »
Should Vulcan been counted as contestant as it uses hydrolox US which is only part that reaches orbit. Same can be said for NG and Stokes RLV, not that these two are really in this race.
« Last Edit: 03/31/2023 03:54 pm by TrevorMonty »

Offline c4fusion

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #26 on: 04/01/2023 05:15 am »
Having read L2 about Starship and seeing Zhuque-2 being this close, it seems like a real hot race.  I am thinking it's probably Starship launching first but the chances of reaching orbit is probably lower than Zhuque-2.  But then again, SpaceX is a mature company with the frankly incredible Falcon 9.  But then again, Starship's development was a bit more messy than expected. 

So who knows, but at least this is so far exciting and is probably going to continue to!

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #27 on: 04/01/2023 06:32 am »
Should Vulcan been counted as contestant as it uses hydrolox US which is only part that reaches orbit. Same can be said for NG and Stokes RLV, not that these two are really in this race.

I can see having two or more 'first methalox launcher to reach orbit'.

The options I can think of include:

1) "All stages powered by methalox".

2) At least one Methalox stage, but it would also include combinations of boosters and stages that don't use methalox.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #28 on: 04/01/2023 04:07 pm »
Should Vulcan been counted as contestant as it uses hydrolox US which is only part that reaches orbit. Same can be said for NG and Stokes RLV, not that these two are really in this race.
Likely for most launches with the Vulcan Centaur, it will have solid boosters.

As long as the core stage of a launcher is MethaLox. It should be included as a contestant, IMO.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #29 on: 04/01/2023 07:43 pm »
As long as the core stage of a launcher is MethaLox. It should be included as a contestant, IMO.
In that case, the competition is over because both ZQ-2 and Terran-1 had successful first stage burns.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline c4fusion

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #30 on: 04/01/2023 11:48 pm »
As long as the core stage of a launcher is MethaLox. It should be included as a contestant, IMO.
In that case, the competition is over because both ZQ-2 and Terran-1 had successful first stage burns.

 - Ed Kyle

Which part of full orbit did they achieve?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #31 on: 04/02/2023 03:02 am »
Should Vulcan been counted as contestant as it uses hydrolox US which is only part that reaches orbit. Same can be said for NG and Stokes RLV, not that these two are really in this race.

I can see having two or more 'first methalox launcher to reach orbit'.

The options I can think of include:

1) "All stages powered by methalox".

2) At least one Methalox stage, but it would also include combinations of boosters and stages that don't use methalox.
Iíd count Vulcan. I understand Edís point but I still think overall it should count if successful. (I also think Starship OFT should count if successful.)
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online laszlo

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #32 on: 04/02/2023 02:25 pm »
As long as the core stage of a launcher is MethaLox. It should be included as a contestant, IMO.
In that case, the competition is over because both ZQ-2 and Terran-1 had successful first stage burns.

 - Ed Kyle

Which part of full orbit did they achieve?

So since SS, even if successful won't achieve a full orbit on its inaugural launch, it's out of the running for now? (I know, I know, they've been granted the Yuri Gagarin Exception for Sexy First-Timers, no need to beat it to death again).

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #33 on: 04/02/2023 04:57 pm »
Thatís pretty lame rhetoric. The energy of the starship OFT launch is orbital, they just donít want to pull a Long March 5 and have a risk of a huge upper stage stuck in orbit. Being responsible with an inaugural launch is not a reason to be penalized. I think if one has 3 brain cells to rub together, one can understand why this would count.
« Last Edit: 06/13/2023 05:46 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #34 on: 04/02/2023 06:46 pm »
Thatís pretty lame rhetoric. The energy of the starship OFT launch is orbital, they just donít want to pull a Long March 5 and have a risk of a huge upper stage stuck in orbit. Being responsible with an inaugural launch is not a reason to be penalized. I think if you have 3 brain cells to rub together, you can understand why this would count.
Why the unjustified insult? It seems out of character for you.

Offline eeergo

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #35 on: 04/20/2023 02:43 pm »
Still uncalled, still ZQ-2 was the one reaching the furthest point in its flight (in spite of the obvious difference in scale).
-DaviD-

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #36 on: 06/09/2023 07:50 pm »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #37 on: 06/13/2023 05:46 am »
Thatís pretty lame rhetoric. The energy of the starship OFT launch is orbital, they just donít want to pull a Long March 5 and have a risk of a huge upper stage stuck in orbit. Being responsible with an inaugural launch is not a reason to be penalized. I think if you have 3 brain cells to rub together, you can understand why this would count.
Why the unjustified insult? It seems out of character for you.
Didnt mean it personally directed. Edited.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #38 on: 07/12/2023 01:46 am »
The Zhuque-2 rocket has reached orbit for the first time, earning the title of being the first methalox SLV to reach orbit.

https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1678937094494846976

Offline eeergo

Re: Which methalox launcher will reach orbit first?
« Reply #39 on: 07/12/2023 05:03 am »
And that's a wrap! Zhuque-2 has claimed the primacy after a close-but-no-cigar first flight that caused a sizeable delay in the feat.

I'm betting Vulcan will follow.
-DaviD-

 

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