TyMoore - 11/10/2006 11:01 PMcarve out a cavity at the bottom of 10 ft diameter shaft big enough to emplace 300 tons of ammonium nitrate and sprinkle it with fuel oil. Still it could be done, especially if they think a 'fake' out would be politically worth it.
My bottom dollar bet though says they tried a real nuke test, and it fizzled.
Radioheaded - 26/1/2007 8:51 AMSlightly OT, but I wonder how long it will be before Isreal steps in with a pre-emptive strike? They pulled no punches with Saddam in the 80's, and there is no doubt that the Iranians are far more of a serious threat to their existance than Iraq ever was. Perhaps a space launch would awaken others in Europe and elsewhere...... though I doubt it. Anyone who thinks this is for peaceful purposes, please contact me about a rather large bridge I'd like to sell
mr.columbus - 26/1/2007 11:36 AMQuoteRadioheaded - 26/1/2007 8:51 AMSlightly OT, but I wonder how long it will be before Isreal steps in with a pre-emptive strike? They pulled no punches with Saddam in the 80's, and there is no doubt that the Iranians are far more of a serious threat to their existance than Iraq ever was. Perhaps a space launch would awaken others in Europe and elsewhere...... though I doubt it. Anyone who thinks this is for peaceful purposes, please contact me about a rather large bridge I'd like to sell Iran is a different category than Iraq in the 80s. Iran has over 70 million people and has a large and actually moderately effective military and air force. A pre-emptive strike against any target in Iran is currently not only no political option for Israel, without US cruise missile capabilities (or air support) it is also not feasible.As to an orbital launch by Iran, I am unsure why that should be regarded as a threat. What threat is the capability of delivering a 50kg space probe with its own launcher, if they use foreign launch crafts to launch real satellites into orbit already? A threat for neighbouring countries is the ability to deliver large payloads by medium and long range ballistic missles. Orbital launches of very small payloads is no threat to anyone.
With regard to Iran's nuclear program, it should be noted that Iran is still a party to the NPT and the IAEA is still able to inspect their nuclear facilities. An IAEA report from a year back found no trace of a nuclear weapons program in Iran and the IAEA still - despite the not very cooperative Iranians - insists that it is unlikely that Iran is actively working on a nuclear bomb.
TyMoore - 26/1/2007 2:43 PMStill, I don't feel particularly 'threatened' by an Iran that has a space launch capability. But then I am comfortably in Northern California. If I lived in Tel Aviv, I might feel differently!
TyMoore - 26/1/2007 1:43 PMOn the other hand, a multistage vehicle that can place a small (let's say 50 kg or 100 kg) payload into LEO will very likely have a first stage which could possibly be derived from or built into a short range ballistic missile with significant (1000-4000 kg) throw weight to toss a relatively crude but effective nuclear weapon a relatively short distance (say 150km to 300 km). No Titan II-class or Minuteman III-class needed there...Still, Iran all by itself cannot hope to achieve parity with current US or Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces any time soon. However, they don't have to--they just need to be able to make enough noise for the rest of the world to take them seriously. And that is enough to make us take them seriously now...Still, I don't feel particularly 'threatened' by an Iran that has a space launch capability. But then I am comfortably in Northern California. If I lived in Tel Aviv, I might feel differently!It would be nice to live in a world where friendly, good spirited competition and enthusiastic copperation in space projects was the norm. >Sigh<Oh well...
