Author Topic: FAILURE: Malligyong-1 - Chollima-1 - Sohae - May 30, 2023 2127Z  (Read 30666 times)

Online Steven Pietrobon

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Here's the North Korean press release on NADA's 10th anniversary. I've highlighted the paragraph that might indicate a launch this year.

http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/041f78ba4b3ba3c86550085757f020eb.kcmsf

NADA Marks Its 10th Founding Anniversary

Pyongyang, April 1 (KCNA) -- The National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) in the DPRK marked its 10th founding anniversary.

The NADA, founded on April 1, Juche 102 (2013), is the national aerospace development guidance organ which maps out space development plans and supervises and controls their implementation in a unified way.

It has proudly exercised the DPRK's legitimate right to develop space for the past decade and conducted the space conquer activities in the forefront of building a space power. It has grown into a prestigious organ representing the state in the field of space development.

It is a product of the noble loyalty, ardent patriotic desire and will of the respected Comrade Kim Jong Un to add eternal shine to the exploits of President Kim Il Sung and Chairman Kim Jong Il for building a space power and demonstrate the dignity of the country and nation before the whole world.

The prestigious and proud history of development of the NADA can be unthinkable without the leadership of the respected General Secretary who made his tireless efforts and painstaking devotion to realize the great dream and ambition of the DPRK to build a space power.

The DPRK, which had proudly emerged a satellite manufacturer and launcher through the successful launches of test satellites in 1998 and 2009, succeeded in putting the first practical satellite onto orbit on December 12, 2012 on the basis of the accumulated technology and experience.

At that time, the advance into space was intensified in the world and its structure diversified.

With a deep insight into the requirements of socialist construction and the trend of the times, the respected General Secretary Kim Jong Un initiated the establishment of a powerful state guidance organ to put the development of outer space of the country on a new higher stage and has wisely led the work for its realization.

The Law of the DPRK on Space Development was promulgated and a decision on establishing the National Aerospace Development Administration was adopted at the Seventh Session of the 12th Supreme People's Assembly on April 1, 2013.

After organizing the NADA, the General Secretary initiated the construction of the satellite control center, personally chose its site and solved all problems arising in the construction, thus making sure that the construction was completed in a short span of time.

Saying that the NADA has a very important duty to realize the plan of the Workers' Party of Korea for building a space power, he indicated the orientation and ways for dynamically pushing ahead with the space science research and satellite launch.

In January, 2016 when space scientists were stepping up the preparations for the launch of the second practical satellite, he visited the Satellite Control Center of the NADA again and clearly indicated once again the purpose, significance and importance of satellite launch, saying that it is not a merely scientific and technological work but the very important and responsible work to be conducted for the dignity of the country and nation before the world.

On February 7, 2016, Kim Jong Un personally visited the launching site of the earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-4 and guided the whole process of the launch and led it to complete success.

At the Seventh Congress of the WPK, he set forth the important tasks for further developing space science and technology and thus manufacturing and launching more practical satellites, the aggregate and essence of ultra-modern technology.

In particular, he set it as the immediate goal of space development to put the geostationary satellite into space in the near future and made sure that the development of a new-type geostationary satellite carrier rocket was conducted in a positive way.

He, who guided in September 2016 the ground jet test of a high-power engine for the geo-stationary satellite carrier rocket for the first time in the DPRK, highly praised the scientists and technicians for devotedly carrying out in a short span of time the task given by the Party.

While inspecting the NADA in March 2022, he set forth the development of a reconnaissance satellite as the top political and military prior task and the supreme revolutionary task of the Party and the government, and clarified the issues for laying a solid material and technical foundation of the field of space scientific research.

In the arduous struggle to explore and conquer outer space in our own way, he instilled wisdom, strength and courage into the minds of the space developers, always finding himself among them.

Thanks to his energetic and meticulous leadership, a well-regulated guidance and management system for the country's space development was established, all the work for the exploration and use of outer space could be conducted in a unified and far-sighted way, and great successes were registered in the work to design and make practical satellite and develop the satellite control equipment and in other space development work.

Today the NADA is recording great achievements in the efforts to make a multi-functional and highly efficient satellite and boost its reliability.

Lots of scientific and technological problems arising in the satellite control and operation have been solved, and the work to introduce the application technology into the economic construction, the improvement of the people's standard of living and the building up of the country's defence capacity has been stepped up.

The NADA is strengthening the international trust and cooperation in the space science field, strictly observing the international outer space treaty, agreements and conventions.

The officials and space scientists of the NADA, who have turned out in the work to carry out this year's task of the new five-year plan for the national aerospace development with great confidence and courage, are pressing ahead with the preparations for launching and operating new practical satellites of various purposes by their own efforts and technology.

Efforts are also made to apply the space scientific and technological successes to agriculture, fishery, weather observation, disaster monitoring, resources prospecting and the development of communication system of our own style. -0-
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:13 am by russianhalo117 »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline blister

In Japan, reports are circulating that the satellite may be launched in April. My guess is that it will be on April 15.
http://kcna.kp/en/article/q/6e77e0f02f8280bf26786dc3112818b2.kcmsf
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:13 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Vahe231991

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In Japan, reports are circulating that the satellite may be launched in April. My guess is that it will be on April 15.
http://kcna.kp/en/article/q/6e77e0f02f8280bf26786dc3112818b2.kcmsf
South Korean military officials may want to keep their fingers crossed for satellite images showing components for the rocket to be used for launching the DPRK reconnaissance satellite being hauled to the Sohae launch site by train.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:13 am by russianhalo117 »

Online Galactic Penguin SST

https://twitter.com/yonhapnews/status/1648449563496427521

Was there any public intel on what kinds of launch vehicle can we expect them to use?
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:14 am by russianhalo117 »
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Offline Vahe231991

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https://twitter.com/yonhapnews/status/1648449563496427521

Was there any public intel on what kinds of launch vehicle can we expect them to use?
I think North Korea can be expected to use the same type of launcher used to launch the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite, because I've always opined that the DPRK has not yet mastered the technological expertise to manufacture brand new first and second stage technology for a geostationary satellite launcher.

Even if it may be a foregone conclusion that China and Russia will give North Korea a free pass on launching its first reconnaissance satellite because they know that the R-7 Semyorka was used for launching the Sputnik and Vostok spacecraft, the US and South Korea hopefully will revise their messaging about DPRK space launch vehicle development because it is apparent that North Korea's space launches were designed to convey a message to the North Korean people about the DPRK having become technologically advanced despite so many years of famine and economic lethargy.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:14 am by russianhalo117 »

Online Steven Pietrobon

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Here's the official press release. I've bolded the section that says that a military photo reconnaissance satellite is to be launched no earlier than this month. There were also some photos, but most of the good bits had been blurred out! However, as the photos were in high resolution some portions were not blurred where we presumably get a good view of what the satellite looks like! It looks to be hexagonal shaped with four solar panels at top.

Photo 7 shows a hexagonal satellite with two visible sides covered in solar panels and one side side not covered. This could be a model of the hexagonal satellite shown in the launch control centre, with the solar arrays in their launch position. There is also a rectangular satellite next to this satellite. This photo also shows what looks like a geosynchronous communications satellite hanging from the ceiling.

http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/de2f5236c9fa713ac1e46d1de910ae46.kcmsf

Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects NADA

Pyongyang, April 19 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, inspected the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) on April 18.

He was accompanied by Pak Thae Song, secretary of the WPK Central Committee, Kim Jong Sik, vice department director of the WPK Central Committee, Kim Sung Chan, president of Kim Il Sung University and minister of Higher Education under the Education Commission, Pak Ji Min, president of Kim Chaek University of Technology, senior officials of educational and scientific research institutions, technicians and experts in the field of IT communication sci-tech studies and commanding officers of the technical intelligence department of the General Reconnaissance Bureau of the Korean People's Army.

He was greeted by leading officials of the NADA and the Academy of Defence Science on the spot.

Going round the space science research institute, the space environment test center and other places, he learned in detail about the work for fulfilling the immediate scientific research tasks set forth by the Party's far-reaching space-conquering policy on the long-term development of the country's space industry, and about the recent progress achieved by the field of space science research in the development of core technologies and production.

The respected Comrade Kim Jong Un highly praised the noteworthy achievements made by the NADA in the core space sci-tech studies to attain the immediate and long-term objectives of the space policy set forth at the 8th Congress of the WPK, the 5th and 6th Plenary Meetings of the 8th WPK Central Committee.

Noting that the development of space industry is of very important significance in building a socialist economic power whose development is propelled and guaranteed by science and technology, he set forth the important tasks to be fulfilled to radically develop space science and technology.

The growth of the space industry is a key element in the exploration of a shortcut to securing the position of a world-class economic and sci-tech power and a demonstration of the overall national power, he said, adding that it is necessary to build a full-fledged space industry capable of dynamically steering the economic development of the country by constantly spurring the independent space development.

He noted that it is the steadfast stand of the WPK and the DPRK government to fulfill on a priority basis the advanced and valuable space development plans in the light of the strategic interests of the country in the present-stage efforts for achieving accelerated space development, steadily expand the successes and finally turn the country into a world space power.

He underscored the need to set it as a main thrust to possess weather and earth observation and communication satellites, in particular, to get thoroughly prepared for the disastrous weather, effectively protect and use the resources of the country, and immediately provide the possibilities for giving strong impetus to the scientific development of the national economy.

He also called on the educational and scientific research units at all levels to establish a system of actively participating in the development of application satellites of various uses, increase state investment for promoting the development of space science and technology, produce standardized and reliable carrier rockets on a full scale in step with the accelerated development of various satellites, and successfully build satellite launching sites reflecting the ideal and ambition for building a space power.

He recalled that in the light of the present situation, in which the U.S. imperialists are deploying nuclear carriers, nuclear strategic bombers and other huge strategic assets of various missions on a permanent basis on the Korean peninsula and its vicinity to turn south Korea into an advanced base for aggression and an arsenal for war, and of the prospective concern that the military actions of the U.S. and south Korea threatening the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the DPRK under the pretext of the allied readiness would get more undisguised, the Eighth Congress of the WPK specified it as the most important and prerequisite task for building up the national defence capabilities of the country to have access to the space reconnaissance capability for securing real-time information about the hostile forces' military scenario and moves in the five-point major goals for developing the national defence capabilities.

Again referring to the role and the strategic value and significance of possessing the military reconnaissance satellite in bolstering up the self-defensive military capabilities for defending the security environment and territorial integrity of the state, the safety and development interests of the people from the escalating military threat and challenge of the U.S. and south Korea, and for using the preemptive military power according to situation, he said that possession of such satellite is a primary task to be indispensably fulfilled to bolster up the armed forces of the DPRK that can never be abandoned, missed and changed, and belongs to its sovereignty and legitimate right to self-defence in view of the requirements of the recent security environment on the Korean peninsula and tackling of the long-term threats.

As the U.S. and south Korea are scheming to further tighten their military posture against the DPRK under the pretext of "offer of extended deterrence" and "strengthened south Korea-U.S. alliance", as evidenced by their most hostile rhetoric and explicit action this year, it is quite natural for the DPRK to develop its military deterrence strong enough to cope with the serious security environment at present and in the future, he said, adding that possessing and operating military reconnaissance means is the most crucial primary task for increasing the military effectiveness and utility of different war deterrence means of the DPRK in doing so.

He set forth the militant task to organize a non-permanent satellite-launching preparatory committee to make sure that the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 completed as of April will be launched at the planned date, speed up its final preparations and firmly establish the satellite intelligence-gathering capability by deploying several reconnaissance satellites on different orbits in succession in the future.

Upon receiving the deep trust and encouragement of the respected Comrade Kim Jong Un, the officials, scientists and technicians of the NADA were filled with a firm determination to become conquerors of space faithfully upholding the Party's far-reaching plan for building a space power through their perfect practice and thus proudly demonstrate the dignity and prestige of the DPRK and the great national power of Juche Korea in the outer space. -0-
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:14 am by russianhalo117 »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Vahe231991

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The satellite with its deployed solar arrays hanging from the ceiling of the NADA headquarters is quite sophisticated and possibly could be the kind of geostationary satellite mentioned by Kim Jong-un on a few occasions because the two satellites that North Korea has orbited were designed for low earth orbit and the soon-to-be-launched DPRK spy satellite is almost certainly intended to spy on enemy territory from sun-synchronous orbit.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:15 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Vahe231991

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https://twitter.com/nknewsorg/status/1658583632175570944

Below is the Rodong Sinmum press release from May 17, 2023, regarding technical preparations for the DPRK's first launch of a spy satellite.

https://kcnawatch.us/newstream/1684271609-417387641/%EA%B2%BD%EC%95%A0%ED%95%98%EB%8A%94-%EA%B9%80%EC%A0%95%EC%9D%80-%EB%8F%99%EC%A7%80%EA%BB%98%EC%84%9C-%EC%A0%95%EC%B0%B0%EC%9C%84%EC%84%B1%EB%B0%9C%EC%82%AC%EC%A4%80%EB%B9%84%EC%9C%84%EC%9B%90/

Respected Comrade Kim Jong-un guided the work of the Reconnaissance Satellite Launch Preparation Committee on the spot

While the struggle to strengthen self-defensive defense capability to achieve the five key goals for national defense development presented by the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea is being vigorously developed, The Non-Standard Satellite Launch Preparation Committee for the launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite Unit 1, which includes scientists and technicians, is vigorously promoting its business in the solidarity stage.

Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, guided the work of the Non-Standard Satellite Launch Preparation Committee on-site on May 16.

The respected comrade Kim Jong-un was greeted by key officials of the Ministry of Munitions Industry and the Ministry of Science and Education of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, as well as members of the Space Development Bureau and the Emergency Satellite Launch Preparation Committee.

Respected Comrade Kim Jong-un studied the business conditions of the Non-Standard Satellite Launch Preparation Committee in detail and looked around the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1.

Respected Comrade Kim Jong-un highly appreciated the fact that the Non-Standard Satellite Launch Preparation Committee is fulfilling its duties and roles responsibly in the process of carrying out an important project to dramatically increase the country's military technology.

Respected Comrade Kim Jong-un said, “The successful launch of a military reconnaissance satellite is an urgent request starting from the established national security environment, an accurate implementation process of the DPRK government’s top priority policy of strengthening national defense, and at the same time, the country’s space military and science and technology Saying that it is a clear step forward in development, he specifically clarified the strategic goals to be continuously achieved in the field of space research.


Dear Comrade Kim Jong-un, while emphasizing again and again the strategic nature of possessing military reconnaissance satellites, the more heinous the anti-DPRK confrontation maneuvers of the US imperialists and the south Korean puppet villains become, the more our sovereignty and self-defense right to thoroughly suppress them and defend the country He said it would be exercised more confidently and more aggressively.

Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un approved the future action plan of the Non-Standard Satellite Launch Preparation Committee.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:15 am by russianhalo117 »

Online Steven Pietrobon

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Images from

http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/1442110f3ec1153669d2342af14847c3.kcmsf

Considering that the satellite has not yet been integrated with the vehicle, launch is probably NET June.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:15 am by russianhalo117 »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline K210

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Its looks to be in the same weight/size class as Kwangmyongsong-4. Return of Unha-3 maybe? There has been rapid work at the launch pad at Sohae since late April (https://www.38north.org/2023/05/sohae-satellite-launching-station-launch-pad-construction-resumes/) so it might be ready to support a launch campaign in coming months.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:16 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Vahe231991

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Its looks to be in the same weight/size class as Kwangmyongsong-4. Return of Unha-3 maybe? There has been rapid work at the launch pad at Sohae since late April (https://www.38north.org/2023/05/sohae-satellite-launching-station-launch-pad-construction-resumes/) so it might be ready to support a launch campaign in coming months.
Unha-3 was the DPRK codename for the Paektusan-2 rocket used to launch the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellites, while the Paektusan-2 rocket that launched the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite bore the writing "Kwangmyongsong" on the first stage. As noted in a 2008 monograph The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program, a June 2006 issue of the pro-DPRK newspaper Choson Sinbo cited official North Korean sources as saying that Paektusan-2 is the official name for the North Korean SLV known by US intelligence as the Taepodong-2 that had its unsuccessful first launch in July 2006 (most probably a suborbital test), so Paektusan-2 may well be the appropriate name for the SLV used for the 2009, 2012, and 2016 satellites and the upcoming reconnaissance satellite launch.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:16 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Vahe231991

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« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:16 am by russianhalo117 »

Online Galactic Penguin SST

North Korea is targeting a May 31-June 11 launch window for carrying out its first spy satellite launch, according to Japanese media outlets:
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-notified-japan-plan-launch-satellite-between-may-31-june-11-nhk-2023-05-28/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-notified-japan-plan-launch-satellite-between-may-31-june-11-nhk-2023-05-28/


[NAVTEX Navigational Warnings]
YELLOW SEA
NO.23-0783 Date:2023/05/28 19 UTC

YELLOW SEA, EAST CHINA SEA AND LUZON,
EASTWARD.
SATELLITE ROCKET LAUNCHING. 301500Z MAY
TO 101500Z JUN. AREAS BOUNDED BY
A. 36-06-56N 123-33-07E
35-24-31N 123-22-47E
35-20-01N 123-48-37E
36-02-26N 123-59-11E.
B. 34-05-54N 123-01-59E
33-23-28N 122-51-53E
33-16-32N 123-29-40E
33-58-58N 123-40-04E.
C. 14-54-10N 128-40-06E
11-19-18N 129-10-50E
11-26-49N 129-54-08E
15-01-42N 129-24-03E.
CANCEL THIS MSG 101600Z JUN.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:17 am by russianhalo117 »
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1662983456681238532

Quote
Thanks to a tip from @martyn_williams I took a look at the warning areas for the upcoming (NET May 31) North Korean recon sat launch.
  The map below shows the launch site, polygonal warning areas and (orange lines) my fit to the trajectories.   (1/n)...

Quote
I think the first and second warning areas correspond to first stage and nose fairing impact zones, and correspond to a -5650 x 150 km x 93.9 deg (sub)orbit  (apogee not well constrained).

Quote
Then the second stage makes a 'dog leg' yaw change to head southeast, firing at 1st stage apogee to a -5240 x 500 km x 75.7 deg orbit with impact east of the Phillipines. This trajectory has an apogee over 127.1E 26.1N.

Quote
The third stage will fire at second stage apogee, likely to reach a 500 x 500 km x 76 deg orbit. The reason for the change in direction is to avoid flying over S Korea during the launch.
But the reason for a 76 deg final orbit is unclear to me.

Quote
The third stage will need a delta-V of 3550 m/s to match the trajectory I derive and reach a circular orbit. This is a pretty normal value. For example, a solid upper stage of Isp 270s could orbit a 250 kg sat and 50 kg empty stage with 850 kg of propellant, all plausible nos.
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:17 am by russianhalo117 »

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https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1663024069216706563

Quote
The planned trajectory of the North Korean satellite launch, as estimated by me based on debris warning areas, passes 500 km above the Okinawa region - higher than the International Space Station. The only landmass it goes directly over is the uninhabited island of Irisuna-jima.

Quote
It is possible that the second stage could shut down early, or that the yaw manuever prior to stage 2 ignition could go off course, so it is not completely *impossible* for debris from the launch to hit the Okinawa region. But it is very, very unlikely.

Quote
Thus, I consider Japanese goverment hyperventilation about the launch to be rather excessive.

Quote
This side-on illustration shows the second and third stage planned trajectories; you can see that the planned path is way out in space as it passes over Okinawa
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:18 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Targeteer

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« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:18 am by russianhalo117 »
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline LH2NHI

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There is also such a possibility if they go for SSO.
What a graveyard of ΔV for downrange constraints!
https://twitter.com/LH2NHI/status/1663168686033866758?s=20
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:18 am by russianhalo117 »

Offline Vahe231991

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« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:18 am by russianhalo117 »

Online Steven Pietrobon

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The official announcement.

http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/c77f96fdae54de7d2efcf6bd55476329.kcmsf

"Ri Pyong Chol Makes Public Stand for Bolstering up Capability for Self-defence

Pyongyang, May 30 (KCNA)...

The DPRK's military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 to be launched in June and various reconnaissance means due to be newly tested are indispensable to tracking, monitoring, discriminating, controlling and coping with in advance in real time the dangerous military acts of the U.S. and its vassal forces openly revealing their reckless ambition for aggression as time passes by and to strengthening the military preparedness of the armed forces of the DPRK."
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:19 am by russianhalo117 »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline TheKutKu

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It seems the launch has happened at around ~0630 Korean time

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230418005500325?input=tw
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 03:19 am by russianhalo117 »

 

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