Why North Korea Is Likely Planning a Satellite Launch in 2018https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/why-north-korea-is-likely-planning-a-satellite-launch-in-2018/?platform=hootsuite
There's a possibility that North Korea might launch a reconnaissance satellite on February 16, the day of the late Kim Jong-il's birth (the official DPRK biography for Kim Jong-il lists his year of birth as 1942, but Soviet records make clear that he was born in 1941).
Quote from: Vahe231991 on 02/04/2022 02:50 amThere's a possibility that North Korea might launch a reconnaissance satellite on February 16, the day of the late Kim Jong-il's birth (the official DPRK biography for Kim Jong-il lists his year of birth as 1942, but Soviet records make clear that he was born in 1941).This is off topic but hopefully not too much of a digression - do you know the reason for the difference? I would generally assume it’s a propaganda related reason but I can’t imagine what it would be
Heard this item mentioned on the 9435kHz VOK (Voice of Korea) shortwave service 28 Feb 2022:http://www.kcna.kp/en/article/q/a5ed9ba4f90e3e96d0adee0cb2458f43.kcmsf
Here's the KCNA news item reporting the 6 March test relating to development of a reconnaissance satellite, but doesn't mention any missile test, which occurred on the same date. Unfortunately, there are no photos.http://kcna.kp/en/article/q/134a0eb1839cb01381c703e991441821d4e24a0a2d9f3b84ee50c4fe4859843c.kcmsfNADA and Academy of Defence Science Conduct Another Important Test for Developing Reconnaissance SatellitePyongyang, March 6 (KCNA) -- The DPRK National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) and the Academy of Defence Science conducted another important test on Saturday under the plan of developing a reconnaissance satellite.Through the test, the NADA confirmed the reliability of data transmission and reception system of the satellite, its control command system and various ground-based control systems. -0-
On December 18, North Korea Space Development Agency (NADA) conducted a test for reconnaissance satellite development at the Seohae Satellite Launching Station.A spokesperson for the National Space Development Agency said the main purpose was to “evaluate the capabilities of satellite imaging and data transmission systems and ground control systems”.A satellite payload equipped with 1 color camera with 20m resolution, and a multi-spectral camera, video transmitter, and other supporting equipment was launched to an altitude of 500 Km.The National Space Development Agency announced that it would finish preparing the first military reconnaissance satellite by April 2023.
North Korea's development of a high-thrust engine capable of carrying a rocket has provided a "sure guarantee" for the country to launch various satellites into orbit, according to state media Monday.Pak Kyong-su, vice director of the National Aerospace Development Administration, made the remarks amid speculation the North is likely to put a military spy satellite into orbit by April.In an interview by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Sunday on the occasion of the 14th anniversary of the North's accession to the international outer space treaty, Pak said the North has made "steady" progress in the work to develop "multi-functional and high-performance" satellites."It succeeded in developing high-thrust engine for carrier rocket and thus provided a sure guarantee for launching various kinds of satellites into relevant orbits," Pak said in an English-language dispatch carried by the KCNA.
In Japan, reports are circulating that the satellite may be launched in April. My guess is that it will be on April 15.http://kcna.kp/en/article/q/6e77e0f02f8280bf26786dc3112818b2.kcmsf
https://twitter.com/yonhapnews/status/1648449563496427521Was there any public intel on what kinds of launch vehicle can we expect them to use?
Its looks to be in the same weight/size class as Kwangmyongsong-4. Return of Unha-3 maybe? There has been rapid work at the launch pad at Sohae since late April (https://www.38north.org/2023/05/sohae-satellite-launching-station-launch-pad-construction-resumes/) so it might be ready to support a launch campaign in coming months.
North Korea is targeting a May 31-June 11 launch window for carrying out its first spy satellite launch, according to Japanese media outlets:https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-notified-japan-plan-launch-satellite-between-may-31-june-11-nhk-2023-05-28/https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-notified-japan-plan-launch-satellite-between-may-31-june-11-nhk-2023-05-28/
Thanks to a tip from @martyn_williams I took a look at the warning areas for the upcoming (NET May 31) North Korean recon sat launch. The map below shows the launch site, polygonal warning areas and (orange lines) my fit to the trajectories. (1/n)...
I think the first and second warning areas correspond to first stage and nose fairing impact zones, and correspond to a -5650 x 150 km x 93.9 deg (sub)orbit (apogee not well constrained).
Then the second stage makes a 'dog leg' yaw change to head southeast, firing at 1st stage apogee to a -5240 x 500 km x 75.7 deg orbit with impact east of the Phillipines. This trajectory has an apogee over 127.1E 26.1N.
The third stage will fire at second stage apogee, likely to reach a 500 x 500 km x 76 deg orbit. The reason for the change in direction is to avoid flying over S Korea during the launch.But the reason for a 76 deg final orbit is unclear to me.
The third stage will need a delta-V of 3550 m/s to match the trajectory I derive and reach a circular orbit. This is a pretty normal value. For example, a solid upper stage of Isp 270s could orbit a 250 kg sat and 50 kg empty stage with 850 kg of propellant, all plausible nos.
The planned trajectory of the North Korean satellite launch, as estimated by me based on debris warning areas, passes 500 km above the Okinawa region - higher than the International Space Station. The only landmass it goes directly over is the uninhabited island of Irisuna-jima.
It is possible that the second stage could shut down early, or that the yaw manuever prior to stage 2 ignition could go off course, so it is not completely *impossible* for debris from the launch to hit the Okinawa region. But it is very, very unlikely.
Thus, I consider Japanese goverment hyperventilation about the launch to be rather excessive.
This side-on illustration shows the second and third stage planned trajectories; you can see that the planned path is way out in space as it passes over Okinawa
KCNA ReportPyongyang, May 31 (KCNA) -- The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) made public the following report on Wednesday as regards an accident occurred during the launch of military reconnaissance satellite:The National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) of the DPRK launched a military reconnaissance satellite, "Malligyong-1", mounted on a new-type carrier rocket, "Chollima-1", at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Cholsan County of North Phyongan Province at 6:27 on May 31, Juche 112 (2023), as scheduled.The carrier rocket "Chollima-1" fell to the West Sea of Korea after losing thrust due to the abnormal starting of the second-stage engine after the separation of the first stage during the normal flight.The NADA spokesperson attributed the failure to the low reliability and stability of the new-type engine system applied to carrier rocket "Chollima-1" and the unstable character of the fuel used, saying that scientists, technicians and experts concerned start discovering concrete causes.The NADA said that it would thoroughly investigate the serious defects revealed in the satellite launch, take urgent scientific and technological measures to overcome them and conduct the second launch as soon as possible through various part tests.
Quote from: catdlr on 05/31/2023 02:44 amhttp://kcna.kp/en/article/q/7142df36a42436897659ab36722d0082.kcmsf
Was the name "Kwangmyongsong 5" ever given by North Korean sources, or was this just an assumption before the satellite was launched?
SEOUL, May 31 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's launch of a "space launch vehicle" may have failed due to a technical problem caused by "excessive change of the projectile's route," South Korea's spy agency said Wednesday.The National Intelligence Service (NIS) delivered this information during a briefing to the parliamentary intelligence committee.Earlier in the day, Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected the launch from Tongchang-ri on the North's west coast at 6:29 a.m. The projectile then flew over the waters far west of the South's border island of Baengyeong before falling into waters some 200 kilometers west of the southwestern island of Eocheong, it said.The North confirmed the failure, saying its new "Chollima-1" rocket carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, "Malligyong-1," fell into the sea due to the "abnormal starting of the second-stage engine.""The NIS report suggested a technical glitch may have occurred because the projectile was set up to fly a route leaning toward the west but had to make an excessive change of route toward the east through lateral motion," Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the ruling People Power Party told reporters after the closed-door briefing.The agency also cited the North's premature launch as possibly being connected to the failure.North Korea shortened the preparation period and fired its projectile from the launch center in Tongchang-ri, which has not been fully constructed, after South Korea successfully launched its homegrown space rocket Nuri last week, according to the NIS.It also said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is assumed to have observed the launch in person from a nearby place since vehicles and tents for spectators were identified near the observation deck, located 1.3 km away from the launch site.The "Chollima-1" rocket is assessed to be a new type of projectile using an engine for intercontinental ballistic missiles, while the "Malligyong-1" is a 1.3 meter-long small low-orbit satellite weighing 300 kilograms that can only conduct basic reconnaissance activities, Yoo said.
If the second stage engine malfunctioned due to an unintentional route change,
If the second stage engine malfunctioned due to an unintentional route change, the possibility that there was some electrical mishap that caused the second stage engine to go out seconds after ignition can't be ruled out.
Not happy Jan! Looks like Chollima-1 was launched from their new site, which features a horizontal integration building and launcher transporter to the pad. Looks like the first stage has four engines. The lack of frost on the first stage and colour of the exhaust indicates storable N2O4/UDMH type propellant. The vehicle has an interesting colour scheme with the first stage being grey with some white checkers, while the second and third stages are white with some grey checkers. The second and third stages have a smaller diameter than the first stage.
Quote from: Vahe231991 on 05/31/2023 03:28 pmIf the second stage engine malfunctioned due to an unintentional route change, the possibility that there was some electrical mishap that caused the second stage engine to go out seconds after ignition can't be ruled out.not true. trajectory or guidance issues are not going to cause electrical problems.
Now claiming that they recovered the satellite?https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20230626068000504Military salvages suspected North Korean 'reconnaissance satellite'... Is the level of satellite technology revealed?Delivery time2023-06-26 11:30 عربي日本語中文betaNorth Korea's 'space launch vehicle' 2nd stage salvaged from the West Sea last nightNorth Korea's 'space launch vehicle' 2nd stage salvaged from the West Sea last night(Seoul = Yonhap News) The wreckage of the Chollima Type 1 space launch vehicle launched by North Korea using ballistic missile technology was recovered 15 days after it fell into the West Sea. The photo shows the remains of a projectile released by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 2023.6.16 [Provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Resale and DB prohibited] [email protected](Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Park Soo-yoon = It is known that the military authorities recently salvaged an object believed to be a military reconnaissance satellite that North Korea failed to mount on a space launch vehicle at the end of last month.According to a military source on the 26th, the Navy rescued an object that appeared to be a satellite 'Malligyeong-1' mounted on a space launch vehicle 'Chollima Type 1' launched by North Korea using ballistic missile technology on the 31st of last month in the high seas of the West Sea last week.A military source said, "I understand that various wreckage has been collected from the site," and "the salvage operation and related activities are continuing."The military moved the estimated satellite object to the Defense Science Research Institute (ADD) in Daejeon and began analysis.If this object is hit by a satellite and is relatively intact, it seems that the level of North Korea's reconnaissance satellite technology can be identified in detail.A space launch vehicle launched by North Korea on the 31st of last month from Dongchang-ri, North Pyongan Province crashed into the West Sea after the first and second stages separated, and in the process, about 180 pieces of debris were captured by an Aegis destroyer and Air Force radar.Wreckage of space launch vehicle 'Chollima Type 1'[Photographed by Yonhap News. Resale and DB prohibited]ADVERTISEMENTMilitary authorities salvaged the second-stage fuselage on the night of the 15th, but could not find the mounted satellite.The South Korean and U.S. military authorities are jointly analyzing the two-stage fuselage and objects suspected of being reconnaissance satellites.On the Korean side, experts from the Ministry of National Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Navy, and ADD are participating in the analysis, and on the US side, personnel from various organizations such as the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) under the Ministry of National Defense are participating in the analysis.