Poll

How many orbital flights will the Falcon 9 & Heavy family do before retirement?

<=50
1 (0.9%)
51-100
4 (3.6%)
101-150
5 (4.5%)
151-200
15 (13.5%)
201-250
21 (18.9%)
251-300
20 (18%)
300-400
14 (12.6%)
401-500
12 (10.8%)
501-600
4 (3.6%)
601-700
5 (4.5%)
701-800
2 (1.8%)
801-900
0 (0%)
901-1000
0 (0%)
>1000
8 (7.2%)

Total Members Voted: 111

Voting closed: 11/22/2017 05:29 pm


Author Topic: How many orbital flights will the Falcon 9 & Heavy family do before retirement?  (Read 19074 times)

Offline M.E.T.

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I think I previously guestimated around 300 lifetime F9 launches.

Assuming Starship takes over Starlink launches fully in 2025, (although I think it will start doing so halfway through 2024), and assuming 90 launches this year, of which about 40 are non-Starlink, that takes us to about 280 by end of this year, and about 370 by end of 2024. And then about 30-40 non-Starlink launches a year on F9 in 2025 and maybe 2026. So I think we are looking to max out in the region of 500 launches eventually.

But that may only be reached by around 2028/2029 as F9 launches rapidly taper off from 2025 onwards.

Edit

Spent another 10 minutes pondering on it and now I think 450.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2023 03:53 pm by M.E.T. »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.

Tags: SpaceX Starship 
 

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