Poll

How many orbital flights will the Falcon 9 & Heavy family do before retirement?

<=50
1 (0.9%)
51-100
4 (3.6%)
101-150
5 (4.5%)
151-200
15 (13.5%)
201-250
21 (18.9%)
251-300
20 (18%)
300-400
14 (12.6%)
401-500
12 (10.8%)
501-600
4 (3.6%)
601-700
5 (4.5%)
701-800
2 (1.8%)
801-900
0 (0%)
901-1000
0 (0%)
>1000
8 (7.2%)

Total Members Voted: 111

Voting closed: 11/22/2017 05:29 pm


Author Topic: How many orbital flights will the Falcon 9 & Heavy family do before retirement?  (Read 26477 times)

Offline M.E.T.

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2465
  • Liked: 3071
  • Likes Given: 543
I think I previously guestimated around 300 lifetime F9 launches.

Assuming Starship takes over Starlink launches fully in 2025, (although I think it will start doing so halfway through 2024), and assuming 90 launches this year, of which about 40 are non-Starlink, that takes us to about 280 by end of this year, and about 370 by end of 2024. And then about 30-40 non-Starlink launches a year on F9 in 2025 and maybe 2026. So I think we are looking to max out in the region of 500 launches eventually.

But that may only be reached by around 2028/2029 as F9 launches rapidly taper off from 2025 onwards.

Edit

Spent another 10 minutes pondering on it and now I think 450.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2023 03:53 pm by M.E.T. »

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56651
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93562
  • Likes Given: 43397
By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13506
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11894
  • Likes Given: 11169
By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.
indeed!

Perhaps we need a new version of this poll, since the original is quite old...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Galactic Penguin SST

By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.
indeed!

Perhaps we need a new version of this poll, since the original is quite old...

Hmm...as the creator of this poll, maybe I'll do it at the end of this year.
(I didn't vote at all back then BTW - though I probably did the right thing by comparing it with the R-7 series)
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 56651
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 93562
  • Likes Given: 43397
By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.

11 months later and just F9 is over 400 orbital flights now. F9+FH could be near - or conceivably exceed - 600 by the end of 2025.

7 years on from when this poll was created and I still don’t have any real idea what the final Falcon family count will be. Transition from Falcon to Starship still seems quite uncertain, although I’d hope/expect it to become clear during 2025.

Offline AmigaClone

By the end of this month the majority of people who voted (myself included) will be proved wrong and quite likely by the end of this year that will increase to over 2/3. By the end of next year I think SpaceX will be at well over 500, with many more Falcon flights still to go.

11 months later and just F9 is over 400 orbital flights now. F9+FH could be near - or conceivably exceed - 600 by the end of 2025.

7 years on from when this poll was created and I still don’t have any real idea what the final Falcon family count will be. Transition from Falcon to Starship still seems quite uncertain, although I’d hope/expect it to become clear during 2025.

I personally suspect the transition between Falcon and Starship will become clearer - but the question on how fast the transition will occur will remain unanswered.

The predictions by SpaceX leaders besides Musk for the number of launches in 2026 might give us a hint at that time.

Personally, I suspect the >1000 launches might be a fairly safe bet.

Tags: SpaceX Starship 
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1