mlorrey - 24/6/2006 7:48 PMSo, what is the US to do about it? Personally, I was pleasantly surprised that the US activated its ABM installation in the Aleutians. I was thinking that, given the Korean launch is a "test", that the US ought to position some of its Aegis cruisers off the Korean coast, and "test" their new ABM capable PAC3 Aegis missiles on the Korean "test" missile... perhaps they'll test the ground based system instead.
mlorrey - 24/6/2006 9:27 PMThe PAC3 Aegis system has in particular, proven to be quite capable of doing its job, and has been tested for exactly this scenario.
edkyle99 - 24/6/2006 11:41 PMQuotemlorrey - 24/6/2006 9:27 PMThe PAC3 Aegis system has in particular, proven to be quite capable of doing its job, and has been tested for exactly this scenario.PAC3, as I understand it, is only useful during the terminal (post-boost) stages of flight. If this were a missile test, North Korea would already have all of the data it needed about the test itself by the time a PAC3 could engage, so the shoot-down would be pointless unless the missle were actually targeting something. I'm not sure if the US Navy's SM3 missile, which works in mid-flight, would be able to interrupt the powered portion of a missile test either.Then there is the question of precedent. If it is OK for the US to shoot down a missile during a test flight that might also be a space launch attempt, what is to prevent another country from shooting down a US missile during a similar test? Or a Minotaur during a space launch? Or an EELV? - Ed Kyle
kevin-rf - 25/6/2006 11:02 PMYou know charles Vick ( http://www.globalsecurity.org/org/staff/vick.htm ) is keeping a running comentary ( http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/dprk/2006/060625-nkir271.htm ) on this test. What is in the public domain, what is missing, and when they can gleam from public domain sources.If it is a space launch attempt I think we will have some interesting discussions. It is interesting (right or wrong) that we keep on seeing articles in the press that a shoot down is improbable...
The logical error in this argument is that they are forgetting that the State of Hawaii, Guam, Kwaj Atolls, and American Samoa are part of the US, as well... I have no idea if the US has any ABM capability covering that region, nor do I know what the effective range is of the installation in the Aleutians. However, I would caution people to recall that the last time the US was attacked by an east asian power, they struck Pearl Harbor by air... going after our Pacific Fleet. Even assuming a CEP of 1-2 km for this missile, they should be able to drop a nuke in range to take out any fleet and harbor capability in Honolulu, as well as a minimum of hundreds of thousands of casualties.
EVA - 26/6/2006 10:19 PMI'm not sure about the policy for posting links,so if you'd like it, just pm me.
Chris Bergin - 26/6/2006 4:00 PMThis thread is now sanitised from political discussion. Space stuff only, thanks.
mlorrey - 25/6/2006 11:19 PMThe logical error in this argument is that they are forgetting that the State of Hawaii, Guam, Kwaj Atolls, and American Samoa are part of the US, as well...
kevin-rf - 26/6/2006 10:46 PMA orbital attempt would not be fired at the US (We hope, though they are know for making the US blink) and as the analysis on globalsecurity showed the payload would be in orbit before we had a chance to hit it. Assuming we have the assets. Do we want to open the ASAT debate on this board?This leaves overt hostile acts. Bomb the launch site before launch or fire a missile (that might not exist, it has only been tested, not deployed) during launch that will definately overfly North Korean territory. Not good options, both are really acts of war. Space is a political game. Look at the discussions in the CEV/CALV section. A political solution may prevent this launch. It may be a orbital launch just hide ICBM development and make it politically more acceptable. Remember NASA an ESA are political entities that exist as much to push the limits of science as to promote national ego's.
edkyle99 - 27/6/2006 7:56 AMQuotemlorrey - 25/6/2006 11:19 PMThe logical error in this argument is that they are forgetting that the State of Hawaii, Guam, Kwaj Atolls, and American Samoa are part of the US, as well... Kwajalein Atoll is part of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. It is leased by the US from the Republic. - Ed Kyle