Poll

How many launches will starship have in 2024?

1
1 (1.8%)
2
2 (3.6%)
3
5 (8.9%)
4
9 (16.1%)
5
25 (44.6%)
6
6 (10.7%)
7
1 (1.8%)
8
1 (1.8%)
More than 8
5 (8.9%)
Zero… this puppy gonna be grounded for all of 2024 for some reason
1 (1.8%)

Total Members Voted: 56

Voting closed: 02/19/2024 03:54 pm


Author Topic: 2024 Starship Launches Poll  (Read 1291 times)

Offline CraigLieb

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2024 Starship Launches Poll
« on: 01/20/2024 03:54 pm »
A launch counts if the vehicle (starship and super heavy together) departs the orbital launch platform after a count down that was not aborted. This includes blowing up on the pad at or after T0 in pieces!

The local time of T0 will apply to launches on December 31 at midnight. Launch attempts from either coast count but the mission plan needs to get to orbital speed (not hop testing).

 Blowing up during fueling, or before T0 doesn’t count for the purpose of this poll.

Aborts during countdown even at T0 do not count. What happens (success or failure) during the flight doesn’t matter regarding this poll.

Hop testing will not count, only launches which have the flight plan to get to orbital velocity for upper stage.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2024 03:56 pm by CraigLieb »
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Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: 2024 Starship Launches Poll
« Reply #1 on: 01/20/2024 04:04 pm »
I voted "more than 8" because I'm a wild-eyed optimist and because Elon said 10 in the all-hands meeting.

To get to 10, they will need to be on overlapped parallel testing tracks, for example an even track and an odd track, at least by mid-year. Not everything learned on an "even" launch will be incorporated in time for the next "odd" launch.  By the end of the year, the cadence needs to get to a launch every 3 weeks.

Online effi

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Re: 2024 Starship Launches Poll
« Reply #2 on: 01/20/2024 07:53 pm »
I voted for 6.

Four or five from Starbase and one or two from Florida.

I would say that more than seven are a bit too optimistically, but let's see.

Offline sdsds

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Re: 2024 Starship Launches Poll
« Reply #3 on: 01/20/2024 08:15 pm »
I optimistically went with more than 8 launches, based on an underlying 50% confidence it will be 6 to 12 launches. The initial EIS mentioned a limit of 12 per year.
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Offline galaxiasocial

Re: 2024 Starship Launches Poll
« Reply #4 on: 03/18/2024 02:08 pm »
I firmly believe that Starship is poised for an incredible year ahead with an estimated five launches in 2024. With its groundbreaking capabilities, I'm optimistic that we're on the brink of reaching Mars sooner than we ever imagined. The future of space exploration is truly exciting!

 

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