Who will flight first, Beta, Terran-R or Neutron?

[Tywin]

Which of these 3 companies will have the next semi-heavy rocket, similar to the Falcon 9?

[Robotbeat]

Voting doesn't close until November 10th, and it's possible Terran-1 will have flown before then. If so, I'll vote Terran-R. If not, I'll vote Neutron.

Technically, Terran-R will be heavy lift, but very borderline. You can just call these vehicles "medium launch vehicles."

[trimeta]

There's no way MLV will win, simply because Firefly is redirecting their efforts towards Antares 330. Granted, MLV's first stage will be almost identical to Antares 330's, but focusing on another vehicle will delay them enough to take them out of the running for this.

[AmigaClone]

There's no way MLV will win, simply because Firefly is redirecting their efforts towards Antares 330. Granted, MLV's first stage will be almost identical to Antares 330's, but focusing on another vehicle will delay them enough to take them out of the running for this.

I take a slightly different approach. The contract Firefly has to provide the first stage of the Antares 330 might provide enough extra funds to speed up the development of the MLV/Beta launch vehicle.

I can even see a possibility of the first flight version of Beta even having the exact same first stage as the Antares 330, although with a different interstage. A later upgrade might see a different stage 1 for MLV.

[trimeta]

There's no way MLV will win, simply because Firefly is redirecting their efforts towards Antares 330. Granted, MLV's first stage will be almost identical to Antares 330's, but focusing on another vehicle will delay them enough to take them out of the running for this.

I take a slightly different approach. The contract Firefly has to provide the first stage of the Antares 330 might provide enough extra funds to speed up the development of the MLV/Beta launch vehicle.

I can even see a possibility of the first flight version of Beta even having the exact same first stage as the Antares 330, although with a different interstage. A later upgrade might see a different stage 1 for MLV.

Even if the first MLV uses an identical first stage as Antares 330, it'll certainly fly at least a year after the first Antares 330, because the priority is to get that vehicle operating regularly first. That will likely push MLV out past the other two contenders, unless they have similar delays despite being the main focus of their respective companies (which both have sufficient funds for this development, thus getting Northrop Grumman's funds isn't a factor).

[Robert_the_Doll]

There is an irony here in how you describe this as we have been here before. This is, in effect, very similar to what Blue Origin and ULA put themselves into 8 years ago with Blue Origin providing BE-4 engines for Vulcan. The exception being that both companies will essentially be sharing an entire first stage not just engines.

While there are some significant differences here, that Firefly Aerospace could be "slaved" to Northrup Grumman's needs and priorities is very much how Blue Origin is to ULA's, though I doubt that Northrup Grumman will require a major upgrade to Firefly compared to how ULA required Blue Origin to increase the thrust for BE-4, along with intensive Space Force requirements as well as oversight that has lead to years of delays.

[trimeta]

I suppose one point of comparison between Firefly/Northrop Grumman and Blue Origin/ULA is whether the latter deal was a factor in Blue Origin transitioning into an Old Space company (or just "behaving exactly like an Old Space company," if you subscribe to the belief that any space company founded in the 21st century is by definition a New Space company and always retains that label). Because if Firefly does work more closely with Northrop Grumman (up to and including acquisition), will they retain their nimbleness?

Perhaps a bit off-topic for this thread, but I'm sure Northrop Grumman has looked closely at the ULA deal and how to not recapitulate it, if they want to get Antares 330 (and subsequently MLV) launching on time.

[whitelancer64]

I am voting Neutron.  Rocket Lab is already producing components for the vehicle, so I think it's way ahead of the other two.

[Robert_the_Doll]

I suppose one point of comparison between Firefly/Northrop Grumman and Blue Origin/ULA is whether the latter deal was a factor in Blue Origin transitioning into an Old Space company (or just "behaving exactly like an Old Space company," if you subscribe to the belief that any space company founded in the 21st century is by definition a New Space company and always retains that label). Because if Firefly does work more closely with Northrop Grumman (up to and including acquisition), will they retain their nimbleness?

Perhaps a bit off-topic for this thread, but I'm sure Northrop Grumman has looked closely at the ULA deal and how to not recapitulate it, if they want to get Antares 330 (and subsequently MLV) launching on time.

I do not wish to argue whether or not Blue Origin is "acting like an old space company", that is for another thread, but they certainly wound up with a lot on their plate with undertaking the BE-4 contract with ULA. BE-4 was clearly to be a somewhat less ambitious engine which would have been far easier and likely quicker to do. The downstream impact for this on New Glenn, was huge. It transformed that rocket into something clearly far larger than it was intended to be, and it already was an ambitious project to begin with.

Northrup Grumman and Firefly Aerospace's deal may or may not be structured the way that it is because both companies looked at the problems that Blue Origin and ULA had, but they really did not need to since Antares in any form has not been offered for military or NRO launches, thus both companies are freed from those restrictions, unless Northrup Grumman sees an opportunity and they decided to completely alter the second stage so that it can meet NSSL requirements. Nor have I seen any indication that, other than what the stage will need to operate using the existing LP-0A infrastructure at Wallops.

Theoretically, Firefly could get around some of these changes by simply changing their Beta rocket first stage ground support infrastructure to be more like that at LP-0A, it's certainly early enough for them to do so. They do have the problem that they will likely need to separate production lines since the interstages will not be the same by any stretch.

[jdon759]

I think Antares 330 will fly first.
Followed by Neutron and TerranR very close together.
My guess for Beta/MLV would be that it ends up being an evolution or variant of Antares 330, rather than a separate vehicle.  Naturally, that depends heavily on how well NG and Firefly end up working together.

But as with all predictions, I'm probably wrong. (And I secretly hope Neutron wins)

[c4fusion]

I am voting Neutron.  Rocket Lab is already producing components for the vehicle, so I think it's way ahead of the other two.

I thought Relativity was also claiming that they were developing parts for their larger rocket also.

So I am going to vote like Robotbeat and say if they launch by end of the year they have at least 50% chance to launch first otherwise Neutron.

[TrevorMonty]

I am voting Neutron.  Rocket Lab is already producing components for the vehicle, so I think it's way ahead of the other two.

Firefly have launch facilities thanks NG, RL need to build them from scratch. Firefly have aready developed flown smaller engines using same cycle, RL is starting from scratch. Both companies know how to build composite LV and are likely use similar manufacturing tools.
I'm still voting for RL as Alpha tie up lot of Firefly's resources for while yet.

[lightleviathan]

I'm 100% voting Terran-R. Relativity has an insanely fast dev cycle, and Terran 1 will use an Aeon R engine in future flights. Most of the tech flying for Terran-R will already be in Terran-1, like how Vulcan tech is on Atlas V.

[imprezive]

I'm 100% voting Terran-R. Relativity has an insanely fast dev cycle, and Terran 1 will use an Aeon R engine in future flights. Most of the tech flying for Terran-R will already be in Terran-1, like how Vulcan tech is on Atlas V.

That’s a bold statement considering Relativity has completed zero dev cycles so far.

[Orbiter]

Terran R is also my vote.

[Paul451]

Voting doesn't close until November 10th, and it's possible Terran-1 will have flown before then. If so, I'll vote Terran-R. If not, I'll vote Neutron.

Not seeing the logic there. If Terran-1 is to Electron as Terran-R is to Neutron, Electron's being flying mostly successfully for years.

[Paul451]

I'm 100% voting Terran-R. Relativity has an insanely fast dev cycle, and Terran 1 will use an Aeon R engine in future flights. Most of the tech flying for Terran-R will already be in Terran-1, like how Vulcan tech is on Atlas V.

That’s a bold statement considering Relativity has completed zero dev cycles so far.

They've built and iterated multiple test bodies as well as operational engines. Including hundreds of test firings of those engines, supposedly.

[DeimosDream]

Terran-R.

Antares 330 is only half a Beta without a Firefly 2nd stage and probably doesn't count. MLV will probably lag behind.
Neutron is my favorite of the three for first-to-recover/reuse, but the factory isn't yet build and the planned (booster) production rate is low. Now that Relativity is bragging about the production rate of their new printers and has pushed back the R&D for their ambitious second-stage recovery claims I'm starting to suspect that a full-expended Terran-'R' analogous to an F9 v1.1 will be the first of the three to orbit.

[Vahe231991]

Terran-R.

Antares 330 is only half a Beta without a Firefly 2nd stage and probably doesn't count. MLV will probably lag behind.
Neutron is my favorite of the three for first-to-recover/reuse, but the factory isn't yet build and the planned (booster) production rate is low. Now that Relativity is bragging about the production rate of their new printers and has pushed back the R&D for their ambitious second-stage recovery claims I'm starting to suspect that a full-expended Terran-'R' analogous to an F9 v1.1 will be the first of the three to orbit.

The Terran rocket had its first launch this month, although the second stage had a sustained burn problem.

[Robotbeat]

Terran-1 and Terran-R are different launch vehicles.