Author Topic: Predictions 2017  (Read 33241 times)

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #60 on: 09/04/2017 04:32 am »
I suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:

Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com
100 successful orbital launches worldwide
10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIO
Elon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systems
No launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)
X37 lands in June
Another X37 launches before EOY
Trump funds an outer planets mission
Dismal performance pertaining to my predictions

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #61 on: 11/27/2017 12:16 pm »
OK, Let's start with the traditional predictions thread :)

Here I go first. I remind that my comments are only opinions and interpretations about current trends in space exploration:

1. Blue Origin will send a man to space, effectivelly becoming the first US company after the shuttle era to achieve a piloted mission

2. SpaceX will give up on sending people to space in 2017, first manned flight will eventually slip to 2018

3. China will launch Chang-e sample return Moon mission and it will be successful.

4. There will possibly be another failure of a Proton-M or Soyuz rocket

5. Orion/SLS won't be canceled under a Trump administration.

6. NASA will officially be transitioned for a return to the Moon

7. More delays for Falcon 9 Heavy, it may slip to 2018 which means that SpaceX will give up on a mission to Mars in 2018 too (it will slip to 2020)

8. ExoMars - TGO will complete successful aerobraking, will start main science mission in the end of the year as espected

9. SpaceShipTwo Unity will make several gliding tests, no powered flights in 2017.

10. Eight launches for Falcon 9.


It's that time of the year, good to see how well I went with my predictions.

1. I failed. There are no Blue Origin flights at all this year. This was quite an unexpected gap, and very disappointing.

2. True. SpaceX schedule did slip to 2018.

3. I failed. Another disappointing outcome for 2017. A heavy lift Long March 5 rocket failed earlier this year which led to postponement of the lunar program.

4. I failed (so far). Proton-M and Soyuz had quite a successful year. Even with the engine debacle concerning Proton-M, it performs very well recently - all launches this year have been a success, and continuing the successful series from 2016 with ExoMars launched.

5. True. Orion and SLS go on, aaand oooon...

6. Kinda true, it's going in that direction. The cis-lunar station is taking shape and let's hope it'll be approved as an official program

7. Yet-to-see. There were delays concerning Falcon Heavy, but it's still on track for engine test in December and possibly launch. Still waiting.

8. True so far, it's still conducting a very successful aerobraking campaign, but the start of the science mission is now expected in 2018.

9. True, so far. SpaceShipTwo Unity conducted several glide tests. No powered flights so far. Maybe there will be a pleasant surprise in December?!

10. I failed, and I'm pleasantly surprised! A great year for SpaceX!

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #62 on: 11/27/2017 04:44 pm »
I guess it's time to see how I did

SpaceX reaches orbit 14, count'em, 14 times, including 2 Falcon Heavy launches.

wrong, although I'm glad to be wrong about this one.

SpaceX lands and recovers 2/3 of the stages they try to.

wrong. They recovered all of them

More evidence of a subsurface ocean on Pluto

wrong. fake news.

More methane is found on Mars, which leads to speculation of life being there, but it will turn out to be more likely a geological source.

wrong

More evidence that Proxima Centauri b is an ocean planet.

nope

Two more "Earth analogues", or earth-size planets in the habitable zone, are found, both within 20 light years.

well, I will give myself 0.5 on this one, as an Earth-sized planet was found in the habitable zone of Ross 126, which is 11 light years away.

More tension with Russia leads to more tension using Russian rockets to launch American and European astronauts to the space station.

wrong again, but again, glad to be wrong

Blue origin does another successful test of a launch abort system.

and finally, wrong.

Wow. Last year I got 2 right out of 8 but this year I got 0.5 right out of 8, or 6.25%. Time to try again!
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline DatUser14

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #63 on: 11/27/2017 05:03 pm »
10 F9 launches, 1 FH.
EM-1 slips to 2019
ITS slips to 2026
Atlas V launch failure
F9 does not have a failure in 2017
#JourneyToMars is redirected to a #JourneyBackToTheMoon under trump
Wrong, 16 and possibly two more F9, maybe 1 FH
wrong, 2022
correct
wrong
correct so far *knocks on wood*
amazingly, correct.
« Last Edit: 11/27/2017 05:31 pm by DatUser14 »
Titan IVB was a cool rocket

Online meberbs

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #64 on: 11/27/2017 05:12 pm »
...
ITS slips to 2026
...
...
correct
...
Huh? BFR (ITS name has been dropped) is planned for launching to Mars in 2022. That is an admittedly optimistic timeline, but it certainly didn't slip to 2026.

Offline Svetoslav

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #65 on: 11/28/2017 10:05 am »
Now, my prediction that there will be a failure with a Russian rocket just turned from FALSE to TRUE.

Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #66 on: 11/28/2017 11:02 am »
I suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:

Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com
100 successful orbital launches worldwide
10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIO
Elon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systems
No launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)
X37 lands in June
Another X37 launches before EOY
Trump funds an outer planets mission
This was so dismal it appears I only got one right. (Two were tongue in cheek)
If we could unlike a post then I’d unlike it

Offline deruch

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #67 on: 11/28/2017 06:25 pm »
I suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:

Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com
100 successful orbital launches worldwide
10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIO
Elon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systems
No launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)
X37 lands in June
Another X37 launches before EOY
Trump funds an outer planets mission
This was so dismal it appears I only got one right. (Two were tongue in cheek)
If we could unlike a post then I’d unlike it

And one was impossible: Trump funds an outer planets mission

The President can't fund anything, Congress controls spending.  The closest you could possibly have come to that was that Trump's budget included such a mission, but Congress actually controls the purse.  Presidential budgets are just hopeful guidelines.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline speedevil

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #68 on: 11/28/2017 07:29 pm »
And one was impossible: Trump funds an outer planets mission

The President can't fund anything, Congress controls spending.  The closest you could possibly have come to that was that Trump's budget included such a mission, but Congress actually controls the purse.  Presidential budgets are just hopeful guidelines.

He is also a rich person. (how rich is a matter of debate).
In principle, for various definitions of 'outer planets mission' he could personally fund it.

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #69 on: 12/01/2017 04:13 pm »
How I did

- Cassini makes at least one history-making discovery before end of mission, takes at least one if not more iconic images

RIGHT - Cassini discovered more about Enceladus and its life possibilities, iconic images abounded

- The solar eclipse of 2017 over the US sparks interest in astronomy and solar science. I'll be in the path of totality under clear enough skies

RIGHT - Rexburg, ID was a great place to see it. And the eclipse got LOTS of attention in the media

- Blue Origin will fly people to just beyond the Karman line at the end of the year, but VG will only start powered flights of VSS Unity at the end of the year. December 2017 will be best month ever for suborbital tourism industry

WRONG - so far. Blue Origin hasn’t flown New Shepard lately, Unity has only done glide tests so far. Will revisit at end of month

- A Soyuz problem (possibly loss of mission or grounding) will bring commercial crew into sharp focus, and renewed effort will be made to fly CC in 2018. Progress or HTV cargo ship losses will put pressure on SpaceX and Orbital ATK to deliver and they will.

WRONG - thankfully. So far so good though there is one Soyuz crewed mission left to go. No Progresses lost either.

- Chinese will lose a key high profile mission to failure, their program will suffer a setback after years of big successes

RIGHT - the Long March 5 and Shijian-18 Heavy Comsat suffered an engine failure, didn’t make it, Chang’e and other flights delayed

- India, Europe, US will experience launch failures though most launches make it to their planned orbits. Russia has more launches go kaboom

HALF RIGHT - so far, so good for Arianespace and all US operators except Electron. But India’s PSLV suffered a fairing failure. Although the recent launch from Vostochny didn’t go “kaboom” it did fail due to an error with the Fregat stage

- SpaceX flies 10 missions successfully (9 F9 1 Falcon Heavy) and the abort test will succeed. First RTF flight pushed back beyond January though, other issues will prevent more than 10 orbital launches

WRONG - hoo boy was I totally off! 16 flights so far, no FH though, no abort test, first launch in January

- An exomoon is discovered, along with at least one other planet orbiting a star in the Alpha/Proxima Centauri system

WRONG - not yet, but coming

- Planet 9 not yet discovered but more progress toward finding it

RIGHT - search area is narrower

- Tabby's Star mystery solved, nothing to do with aliens

RIGHT - dust is likely culprit

- Orion and SLS continue, though SLS program likely limited in number of launches and years by Trump admin.

HALF RIGHT - Orion and SLS are continuing, no restriction on flights/program life yet, though I believe that will come

#MissionToMars folded into #MissionToMarsByWayofMoon with a small cislunar space station the next step. SLS manifest filled with lunar facility building block missions, Europa and Mars sample return missions, lunar crewed surface missions (demo missions using smaller landers, nothing like Altair), but commercial capabilities for exploration missions planned for beyond 2030

HALF RIGHT- the cislunar space station is being planned, no Mars sample or crewed lunar surface missions for SLS though

- ARM will be repurposed into a lunar sample effort

HALF RIGHT - ARM cancelled, tech folded into other missions though no lunar sample mission yet

- New NASA Administrator possibly Eileen Collins

WRONG - Jim Bridenstine got named

- I will finish at least one Space model

RIGHT - the 1/12 Atomic City Mercury!

- I will attend at least one launch in person

WRONG - couldn’t make it. But wanting to do so in 2018.

- TESS will launch successfully

WRONG - set for March now

- Red Dragon stays on track for 2018, incredibly enough

WRONG - Red Dragon cancelled

- At least one lunar X Prize mission launches toward the Moon

WRONG - no flight this year
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #70 on: 12/13/2017 04:59 pm »
Blue origin does another successful test of a launch abort system.

Aha! I give myself another 0.5 of a point for this:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/blue-origin-new-capsule-1.4446304
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #71 on: 12/14/2017 05:50 am »
How'd I do?? (will update closer to the end of year

Predictions for 2017

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence. (Poll for number is open and here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0 )
No losses so far, but the flight cadence kind of petered out after the Zuma fairing thing... .5 for .5/1
Quote
- SpaceX will launch less than 3 missions with expendable cores
Nope. More than 2 were expended. 0.0 for .5/2
Quote
- SpaceX will recover at least 80% of the cores they attempt to recover
Yes. all of them in fact. 1.0 for 1.5/3
Quote
- FH will launch
0.0 for 1.5/4
Quote
- LC40 will return to service
if a static fire counts, then for sure. If a launch is needed, then probably ...  tentative 1.0 for 2.5/5
Quote
- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
Not that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6
Quote
- CommsX constellation will see at least the first two test satellites launched (rideshare)
Nope. 0.0 for 3/7
Quote

- ULA will select BE4 over AJ for Vulcan
Not yet. looking likely so .5 for 3.5/8
Quote
- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there
No visible progress (Jongoff???) 0.0 for 3.5/9
Quote
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur
No visible progress (Jongoff???) 0.0 for 3.5/10
Quote

- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 4 times and at least one of them will be with paying cargo
Once. With cargo. Call it 0.25 for 3.75/11
Quote

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least twice. At least one launch will be a success.
Nope, second launch pushed to 2018 0.0 for 3.75/12
Quote

- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it
No new look yet but there has been whinging anyway  0.5 for 4.25/13
Quote
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts
Heck yeah, sadly. .. 5.25/14

Predictions are hard. Especially about the future. Graded generously I got 41% 37.5%... that's pretty bad :)
« Last Edit: 12/16/2017 09:11 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline philw1776

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #72 on: 12/14/2017 04:32 pm »
1. Though lots of chatter & under review, SLS & Orion not yet cancelled by 2017 end
HIT 1.0
2. ARM cancelled
MISS 0.0
I don't think it's formally cancelled.  Could be wrong.
3. FH finally flies!  but in the 2nd half of 2017
MISS 0.0
LUCY PULLS THE FOOTBALL AWAY FROM LINUS AGAIN!!!
4. F9 has no launch (or static test) RUDs + greatly increased launch cadence
HIT 1.0
5. Recovered coreS make F9 flightS
HIT 1.0
6. Physics & astrophysics place further constraints on what constitutes Dark Matter; cracks widen in DM theory
MISS 0.0
SOME MINOR SCIENTIFIC CHATTER BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE I THOUGHT
7. No readily verifiable demo of any EM drive
HIT 1.0
8. No SETI signal received
HIT 1.0
9. BO makes additional flights, but no crewed flights in 2017
ONE FLIGHT, SO 0.5
10. JWST continues per schedule
MISS 0.0
11. No exo-moons detected
MISS 0.0
POSSIBLE DETECTION
12. No Google Lunar prize winner
HIT 1.0
13. No Planet 9 discovery
HIT 1.0
14. Virgin Galactic makes a powered test flight
MISS 0.0
15. ITER continues to suck up money
HIT 1.0
ADDED
16. SpaceX reveals their space suit design
HIT 1.0

SCORE 9.5*/16 but several were too easy layups which alas I will again predict for 2018
My worst was last year 2016 when I "predicted" NO LIGO detection of gravitational waves.
Won the Ignobel prize.

* still time left in 2017 to reduce that score
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 04:33 pm by philw1776 »
FULL SEND!!!!

Offline Rabidpanda

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Predictions 2017
« Reply #73 on: 12/14/2017 05:16 pm »

Predictions for 2017
 
Quote
- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
Not that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6

What? How are we close to a full duration firing of a flight Raptor? All we know is that they have been testing the dev Raptor for about a year. Flight Raptor testing could still be a year or more away.
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 06:07 pm by Rabidpanda »

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #74 on: 12/14/2017 05:47 pm »
How'd I do?? (will update closer to the end of year

Predictions for 2017
 
Quote
- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
Not that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6

What? How are we close to a full duration firing of a flight Raptor? All we know is that they have been testing the dev Raptor for about a year. Flight Raptor testing could still be a year or more away.

grading on a curve. There has been Raptor testing and it's farther along than it was last year.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #75 on: 12/16/2017 08:33 am »
Alright, it is close enough to the end of the year that I should be safe in reviewing my predictions:
Hopefully I'm wrong on some of these, but here we go:
Unfortunately I was wrong on the ones I really wanted to be right.
Quote
Orbital:
- Russia will continue to have problems with reliability and will lose another Progress and/or Proton.
One Soyuz launch vehicle failure, but pretty good other than that so I’ll give it half credit.
Quote
- SLS will be cancelled like all of the shuttle derived vehicles before it. It will be replaced by a shuttle derived vehicle.
Wrong.
Quote
- Rocket Lab will launch Electron at least twice, but will lose one vehicle.
Would have been correct if they had managed to get the second flight off this year, but I’m counting it as wrong.
Quote
- Virgin will unveil Launcher One hardware, but no flights.
Correct.
Quote
- The SpaceX Dragon 2 test flight will slip to Q4 2017 2018.
Correct, but almost a gimme considering Elon time
Quote
- Falcon Heavy will fly, but not until Q4. It will be awesome.
Wrong, although it looks like it is getting close. I almost said that it wouldn’t fly this year, but thought that that might be too pessimistic (should have kept with my original prediction).
Quote
- SpaceX will refly a booster, but none will be reflown twice.
Correct.
Quote
Suborbital:
- EXOS will fly to space and land succesfully.
Not yet.
Quote
- Virgin will do one SS2 powered flight near the end of the year.
I was hoping they would make it, but it doesn’t look like they will get to it this year. Here’s hoping for early next year.
Quote
- Blue will do 12 flights, demonstrate a 24 hour turnaround, and fly people.
Wrong; only did one flight. Turns out spaceships are hard. Maybe someday they will get to gas and go.
Quote
- High altitude balloon "suborbital tourism" flights will start carrying people.
Nope.
Quote
- Masten will demonstrate the cradle landing that they have long alluded to.
Even though I remain skeptical of the practicality of cradle landings, I thought this would be a freebee. Apparently wind-induced normal forces matter.
Quote
- XCOR will still be around doing cool stuff.
Despite public appearances, I thought this one would be a pretty safe assumption. Wrong, unfortunately. I'm going to miss it.

Only 3.5/13, pretty bad.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2017 08:34 am by Gliderflyer »
I tried it at home

Offline moreno7798

Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #76 on: 12/22/2017 12:14 am »
OK here's my attempt at predictions for 2017:


1. SpaceX reaches 10 or more launches (the thinking goes that as they plug past failures, the system will become more reliable).

2. SpaceX suffers another failure with F9 around Q4 2017.

3. Falcon Heavy launches in Q4 2017.

4. Cannae's experimental satellite featuring EMDrive propulsion technology launches in 2017.

5. Cannae's proprietary EMDrive technology proves to work in the vacuum of space finally putting to rest the skepticism about the technology.

6. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to *LEO and returns it safely in Q2 2017.

    * CORRECTION: BO rocket to sub-orbit - not LEO

7. 12 years after its inception, Virgin Galactic is still not able to conduct a manned sub-orbital test flight in 2017.

8. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.

9. in 2017 no one is still able to figure out what's causing Tabby's Star's strange dips in brightness. The mystery continues.

10. Roger Sawyer is nominated for Nobel in Physics for EMDrive technology (even though the scientific community is not on the same page about how the drive actually works.)

11. Donald Trump defunds NASA's earth Science. There is an exodus of earth scientists at NASA.

12. SpaceX unveils it's spacesuit in 2017.

13. SpaceX unveils a mockup, and more details about ITS in 2017.


It's time to see how I faired.

1.   1/2 Correct. So while I did not give a specific number of launches, I got his partially right in the fact that I was optimistic and thought they would get more than 10. But I didn't think they would get that many.

2.  Wrong. On this I was still on the "old guard mentality". The old guard thinking goes "failures are frequent, and they are inevitable". But SpaceX has destroyed that school of thought.

3.  Wrong - but close. OTOH, A Tesla in orbit around Mars sounds swell!

4.  Wrong. Not a peep from Cannae.

5.  Wrong. Although, inconclusively, EMdrive appears to work. It's not a coincidence that almost every agency around the world has gotten positive thrust (with a few retractions), but definitely more testing is needed.

6.  Wrong and wrong.

7.  Correct. Sadly. Should Burt Rutan had stayed on, they'd be flying right now.

8.  Correct. Someone said this was unlikely to happen because of all the leeway NASA has - I guess it wasn't enough.

9.  Correct. Bruce Gary has come up with a very complex theory where there is a Brown Dwarf orbiting, several planets orbiting the BD with gas and dust being expelled, a very specific orbiting parabolae - but just when he predicted (based on his theory) it would brighten up again, instead it is starting to dim again. At this point it is still anyone's guess what's in the vicinity of Tabby's Star. And the dust theory does not explain the long term dimming.

10.  Wrong. He has so many haters that some will revolt if he gets it - on the grounds that his "math was wrong"... and yet everyone is latching on to it themselves.

11.  Correct.
https://www.space.com/36989-nasa-budget-cancels-five-earth-science-missions.html

12.  Correct.

13.  1/2 Correct. Not a mockup, but more details. SpaceX is a monster! They exceeded expectations in every way!

Total:  6/13
« Last Edit: 12/22/2017 12:21 am by moreno7798 »
The only humans that make no mistakes are the ones that do nothing. The only mistakes that are failures are the ones where nothing is learned.

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #77 on: 12/27/2017 02:51 pm »
SpaceX:
-11 SpaceX missions including one Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy fails on first launch.  WRONG - an impressive 18
- Test satelites for the commsat constellation program hitch a ride on a Falcon Heavy launch. WRONG, FH didn't launch and test sats are going with PAZ on a regular F9.
- 8 out of 11 missions have succesful landings. WRONG - All 14 attempts successful. 4 launches where no attempt
- Unmanned Dragon 2 mission delayed to 2018. Correct
- SpaceX will be quiet about ITS with new information coming out in drips over the year WRONG - sudden reveal of a new BFR.
Rocket Lab:

-First flight fails. Correct
-At least 5 flights this year including 3 test flights. WRONG - 1 attempt in 2017

Blue Origin
- Succesful test program for BE4. It is picked for ULA's Vulcan. Mixed - A succesful test fire of BE-4, a power pack explosion. ULA are as of yet undecided
- New Sheppard has the first succesful manned flights by the middle of the year WRONG
- New Sheppard has at least 8 flights in 2017. Super Wrong - 1 test flight of new capsule
- More details of New Glenn are unveiled. Correct - Many details where revelead including moving straight to 7 metre fairings
- Plans for an additional launch site are unveiled. Wrong

Virgin Galactic

- SS2 has one powered suborbital flight by the years end. No accidents. Mixed - Glide tests, No accidents. No powered Flights
- LauncherOne becomes the main focus of the company. Mixed - LauncherOne spun off into new company Virgin Orbit

Google X-Prize

- One attempt this year. It will fail on landing.  Wrong

Russia

-Their space program detriorates further in this year and they lose two boosters. Mixed - 1 launch failure. Angosat in trouble
-There is an in flight launch abort for an ISS mission. Wrong
- No one dies but it causes a change in US policy. Wrong
-Both Orion/SLS and Commercial Crew get a substantial shot in the arm, with increased budgets. Wrong
-NASA is made investigate putting Orion on an EELV. Mixed-  I heard there was a study done for this in 2017 but not sure
-The use of Shenzhou for ISS flights is seriously investigated. Wrong
-ESA consider moving ExoMars to Ariane 5.  Wrong

ESA

-A pretty much flawless year of missions for Arianespace and ESA.  Correct
-They gain a mission due to another country experiencing a launch failure. Wrong
- Pressure builds on Europe over the long term future of Ariane 6 due to its lack of reusability. Mixed
- Some notional programs to implement it are raised but not at the funding stage yet. Wrong - Minor Programs under way and funded to study it
- ESA floats the Moon Village concept but will wait until the Trump space policy emerges before pushing in any particular direction. Mixed - Trump space policy was revealed very late in the year but Moon Village has gained some momentum
NASA

-NASA has a year of flawless missions but will be in a state of flux due to the incoming administration. Correct - Specatular missions all round, no new administrator yet and agency in flux awaiting new policy to be implemented
- There will be a pivot back towards doing a Lunar mission with a mix of commercial and SLS/Orion. Correct
- A demonstration Lunar Orbital Habitat gains funding. Wrong

Firefly

- The company winds up by the end of the year, selling its physical and intellectual assets. Correct - However like a Phoenix in the flames it was reborn in the course of the year which was amazing to see

China

-One launch failure Mixed - One launch failure, one partial failure
- a tremendous 2017 of firsts in the Chinese Space Program Correct - Quantum satellites, Tianzhou refueling demos
- Tianzhou is successful Correct
- Chang'e 5 sample return is succesful. Wrong - never launched due to CZ5 failure earlier in year
-In 2017, they fly the most missions of any country in the world. Wrong - in 3rd place behind Russia and USA
- China will make moves to aqcuire space technology from sanction laden Russia such as RD-180 engines. Correct - cooperation agreements signed on this

Skylon/Britain

-Reaction Engines get a boost from the British Government to develop Sabre.  Wrong - I'm not aware of any additional funding boost in 2017
-The Brexit pushes the UK into using spaceflight as a nationalistic symbol of their capability on the global stage. -Efforts are ramped up to develop a space port. Correct - I believe it even ended up mentioned in The Queen's speech

Iran

-They have a single successful launch. Wrong - a failed launch
-Work on a booster in the same capability range as Vega begins Wrong - Nothing in public as of yet
-Plans for a Soyuz class booster in the late 2020s begin Wrong - Nothing in public as of yet

Turkey
-Turkey begins efforts to develop independent access to space similar to Israel. Wrong

Japan
A succesful year with no failures. Wrong - Test of the smallest orbital rocket ever fails
-Japan waits for the outcome of the NASA transition before realigning its space policy. Mixed - NASA still early in transition

ULA
-ULA picks BE4 for Vulcan. Wrong - Nothing picked yet
-They push hard for distributed launch in 2017 as a solution for a Moon program. Mixed - Idea of putting Bigelow Habitat in Lunar Orbit using DL was advertised
-ACES engine remains undecided Correct
-The idea of converting ACES/Centaur into a Moon lander is floated. Mixed - Was mentioned in the year but has been in previous yeas
-They pick up an additional Atlas V launch due to someone else having a failure. Wrong
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline LM13

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #78 on: 12/27/2017 08:02 pm »
1.  Mike Griffin is not nominated as NASA Administrator, but someone similar to him in goals is.

There is no new NASA Administrator as of 12/27/2017, so I'm right on the first count, and wrong on the second.

2.  FH flies at least twice.  F9 flies at least 12 times.

Wrong on the first, right on the second.

3.  Proton suffers a launch failure.  Some time afterward, Russia will announce a project to build an interstellar starship (somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but I do expect some kind of unrealistic goal they have no intention of meeting). 

No, but a Soyuz failed, and a Russian-built satellite was lost shortly after launch.  Still giving myself a 0 here.

4.  ULA launches all payloads essentially flawlessly. 

Yes.

5.  Chang'e 5 returns samples from the Moon.  To the disappointment of American space buffs, this does not trigger any apparent reaction in Congress or the Executive Branch.

No.

6.  Planet 9 is discovered.

Nope

7.  NASA announces the next Discovery mission in January.  Venus is the target.

Nope
EDIT: According to the NASA Discovery Mission 2015 thread, I'm already wrong on the first count.  As to the second...

8.  NASA keeps #JourneyToMars as its stated goal, but a lunar proving ground is worked in somehow.  This may take the form of an LLO space station rather than a surface base, however.

Given the increasing prominence of DSG, I think I can call this correct.

9.  Full 3.5 MN Raptor test fire.

Nope

10. EM-1 slips to early 2019.

No--it's late 2019/2020 now.

So I've got 3/10 correct.  Abysmal, but maybe I'll do better next year. 

Offline Bynaus

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Re: Predictions 2017
« Reply #79 on: 12/27/2017 08:27 pm »
I like the idea of BO being first back to space next year (although: "space", and yes, we will get a few more tweets from Elon telling us the difference between space and orbit). I think Bezos will push for that. And we will all be delighted!

I think FH will not fly 2017. At some point in early summer, Elon will announce that the inaugural flight of FH will be the Red Dragon flight in 2018, says that priority is on avoiding further scheduling slips for F9 customers. F9 will do a record number of flights, 12 would be my guess but wouldn't be surprised if it was more (up to 16?). Crew Dragon unmanned flight test will happen in early December.

Dream Chaser flies again!

Trump Administration sets up review board for ARM, SLS, Orion. Board recommends to end ARM (but keep SEP elements for a general-purpose deep space tug), and to keep SLS and Orion for now, but EM-1 as planned now (2018) is canceled and only the EUS-variant (1B Crew/Cargo) of the SLS will be developed (it also gets a name in the process), EM-1 rescheduled for 2020 or so, to be followed in 2022 by EM-2 (manned). Keep Mars as a long-term goal (we will soon see the first manned NASA landing pushed officially to the 2040ies), but "proving ground" strategy around the Moon (also with an eye towards China) fleshed out in more detail (including commercial resupply of the lunar orbital habitat).

More Russian mishaps. More Chinese sucesses (including launch of Tianzhou, the first chinese space station re-supply ship, and Chang-E 5, the latter towards the end of the year).

More discoveries in the outer solar system in support of the Planet Nine hypothesis (whether that means I think they will find it, I leave that up to you to decide ;) ).

Planet around one of the main Centauri stars found. Its a rocky world too hot for life.

BO sending people to space - nope.
No FH - yep.
FH inaugural flight = Red Dragonn - nope.
F9 record number of flights - yep.
(up to 16) - yep. yay!
Crew Dragon unmanned test in December - nope.
Dream Chaser - yep.
SLS rescheduled for 2020 - certainly looks like it now. I count this as yep.
Proving ground around the moon, commercial resupply for lunar orbital habitat - yep.
Russian mishaps - one mishap, not mishaps - mixed.
China successes, incluing Tianzhou and Chang'E 5 - mixed (yep and nope).
More support for Planet Nine, but also some works speaking against it - mixed.
Alpha Centauri planet - nope.

So, out of 13 claims, 4 nope, 3 mixed, 6 yep. Okay, but compatible with luck. :)
More of my thoughts: www.final-frontier.ch (in German)

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