I suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com100 successful orbital launches worldwide10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIOElon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systemsNo launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)X37 lands in JuneAnother X37 launches before EOYTrump funds an outer planets mission
OK, Let's start with the traditional predictions thread Here I go first. I remind that my comments are only opinions and interpretations about current trends in space exploration:1. Blue Origin will send a man to space, effectivelly becoming the first US company after the shuttle era to achieve a piloted mission2. SpaceX will give up on sending people to space in 2017, first manned flight will eventually slip to 20183. China will launch Chang-e sample return Moon mission and it will be successful.4. There will possibly be another failure of a Proton-M or Soyuz rocket5. Orion/SLS won't be canceled under a Trump administration. 6. NASA will officially be transitioned for a return to the Moon 7. More delays for Falcon 9 Heavy, it may slip to 2018 which means that SpaceX will give up on a mission to Mars in 2018 too (it will slip to 2020)8. ExoMars - TGO will complete successful aerobraking, will start main science mission in the end of the year as espected9. SpaceShipTwo Unity will make several gliding tests, no powered flights in 2017.10. Eight launches for Falcon 9.
SpaceX reaches orbit 14, count'em, 14 times, including 2 Falcon Heavy launches.
SpaceX lands and recovers 2/3 of the stages they try to.
More evidence of a subsurface ocean on Pluto
More methane is found on Mars, which leads to speculation of life being there, but it will turn out to be more likely a geological source.
More evidence that Proxima Centauri b is an ocean planet.
Two more "Earth analogues", or earth-size planets in the habitable zone, are found, both within 20 light years.
More tension with Russia leads to more tension using Russian rockets to launch American and European astronauts to the space station.
Blue origin does another successful test of a launch abort system.
10 F9 launches, 1 FH. EM-1 slips to 2019ITS slips to 2026Atlas V launch failureF9 does not have a failure in 2017#JourneyToMars is redirected to a #JourneyBackToTheMoon under trump
Quote from: DatUser14 on 12/12/2016 03:35 pm...ITS slips to 2026......correct ...
...ITS slips to 2026...
Quote from: vapour_nudge on 12/12/2016 09:59 pmI suggested some of these in 2016 and I was wrong but here we go again:Chris Bergin renames the site NASASpaceXFlight.com or SpacexFlight.com100 successful orbital launches worldwide10 Atlas V launches including a previously unannounced launch like CLIOElon Musk reveals the AMOS 6 failure root cause was a C&C hack by an unspecified country that targeted the propellant loading systemsNo launch failures worldwide (unless FH is attempted)X37 lands in JuneAnother X37 launches before EOYTrump funds an outer planets missionThis was so dismal it appears I only got one right. (Two were tongue in cheek)If we could unlike a post then I’d unlike it
And one was impossible: Trump funds an outer planets missionThe President can't fund anything, Congress controls spending. The closest you could possibly have come to that was that Trump's budget included such a mission, but Congress actually controls the purse. Presidential budgets are just hopeful guidelines.
Predictions for 2017- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence. (Poll for number is open and here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41824.0 )
- SpaceX will launch less than 3 missions with expendable cores
- SpaceX will recover at least 80% of the cores they attempt to recover
- FH will launch
- LC40 will return to service
- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configuration
- CommsX constellation will see at least the first two test satellites launched (rideshare)
- ULA will select BE4 over AJ for Vulcan
- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur
- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 4 times and at least one of them will be with paying cargo
- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least twice. At least one launch will be a success.
- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts
1. Though lots of chatter & under review, SLS & Orion not yet cancelled by 2017 endHIT 1.02. ARM cancelledMISS 0.0I don't think it's formally cancelled. Could be wrong.3. FH finally flies! but in the 2nd half of 2017MISS 0.0LUCY PULLS THE FOOTBALL AWAY FROM LINUS AGAIN!!!4. F9 has no launch (or static test) RUDs + greatly increased launch cadenceHIT 1.05. Recovered coreS make F9 flightSHIT 1.06. Physics & astrophysics place further constraints on what constitutes Dark Matter; cracks widen in DM theoryMISS 0.0SOME MINOR SCIENTIFIC CHATTER BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE I THOUGHT7. No readily verifiable demo of any EM driveHIT 1.08. No SETI signal receivedHIT 1.09. BO makes additional flights, but no crewed flights in 2017ONE FLIGHT, SO 0.510. JWST continues per scheduleMISS 0.011. No exo-moons detectedMISS 0.0POSSIBLE DETECTION12. No Google Lunar prize winnerHIT 1.013. No Planet 9 discoveryHIT 1.014. Virgin Galactic makes a powered test flightMISS 0.015. ITER continues to suck up moneyHIT 1.0ADDED16. SpaceX reveals their space suit designHIT 1.0
Predictions for 2017 Quote- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configurationNot that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6
Quote from: Lar on 12/14/2017 05:50 amHow'd I do?? (will update closer to the end of yearQuote from: Lar on 12/15/2016 10:09 pmPredictions for 2017 Quote- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configurationNot that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6What? How are we close to a full duration firing of a flight Raptor? All we know is that they have been testing the dev Raptor for about a year. Flight Raptor testing could still be a year or more away.
How'd I do?? (will update closer to the end of yearQuote from: Lar on 12/15/2016 10:09 pmPredictions for 2017 Quote- We'll see a "full duration" firing of a Raptor in essentially flight configurationNot that I know of... close though... 0.5 for 3/6
Hopefully I'm wrong on some of these, but here we go:
Orbital:- Russia will continue to have problems with reliability and will lose another Progress and/or Proton.
- SLS will be cancelled like all of the shuttle derived vehicles before it. It will be replaced by a shuttle derived vehicle.
- Rocket Lab will launch Electron at least twice, but will lose one vehicle.
- Virgin will unveil Launcher One hardware, but no flights.
- The SpaceX Dragon 2 test flight will slip to Q4 2017 2018.
- Falcon Heavy will fly, but not until Q4. It will be awesome.
- SpaceX will refly a booster, but none will be reflown twice.
Suborbital:- EXOS will fly to space and land succesfully.
- Virgin will do one SS2 powered flight near the end of the year.
- Blue will do 12 flights, demonstrate a 24 hour turnaround, and fly people.
- High altitude balloon "suborbital tourism" flights will start carrying people.
- Masten will demonstrate the cradle landing that they have long alluded to.
- XCOR will still be around doing cool stuff.
OK here's my attempt at predictions for 2017:1. SpaceX reaches 10 or more launches (the thinking goes that as they plug past failures, the system will become more reliable). 2. SpaceX suffers another failure with F9 around Q4 2017.3. Falcon Heavy launches in Q4 2017.4. Cannae's experimental satellite featuring EMDrive propulsion technology launches in 2017. 5. Cannae's proprietary EMDrive technology proves to work in the vacuum of space finally putting to rest the skepticism about the technology.6. Blue Origin launches a manned rocket to *LEO and returns it safely in Q2 2017. * CORRECTION: BO rocket to sub-orbit - not LEO7. 12 years after its inception, Virgin Galactic is still not able to conduct a manned sub-orbital test flight in 2017.8. JWST suffers another setback and is pushed back to 2019 or later.9. in 2017 no one is still able to figure out what's causing Tabby's Star's strange dips in brightness. The mystery continues.10. Roger Sawyer is nominated for Nobel in Physics for EMDrive technology (even though the scientific community is not on the same page about how the drive actually works.)11. Donald Trump defunds NASA's earth Science. There is an exodus of earth scientists at NASA.12. SpaceX unveils it's spacesuit in 2017. 13. SpaceX unveils a mockup, and more details about ITS in 2017.
SpaceX:-11 SpaceX missions including one Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy fails on first launch. WRONG - an impressive 18- Test satelites for the commsat constellation program hitch a ride on a Falcon Heavy launch. WRONG, FH didn't launch and test sats are going with PAZ on a regular F9.- 8 out of 11 missions have succesful landings. WRONG - All 14 attempts successful. 4 launches where no attempt- Unmanned Dragon 2 mission delayed to 2018. Correct- SpaceX will be quiet about ITS with new information coming out in drips over the year WRONG - sudden reveal of a new BFR.Rocket Lab:-First flight fails. Correct -At least 5 flights this year including 3 test flights. WRONG - 1 attempt in 2017Blue Origin- Succesful test program for BE4. It is picked for ULA's Vulcan. Mixed - A succesful test fire of BE-4, a power pack explosion. ULA are as of yet undecided- New Sheppard has the first succesful manned flights by the middle of the year WRONG- New Sheppard has at least 8 flights in 2017. Super Wrong - 1 test flight of new capsule- More details of New Glenn are unveiled. Correct - Many details where revelead including moving straight to 7 metre fairings - Plans for an additional launch site are unveiled. Wrong Virgin Galactic- SS2 has one powered suborbital flight by the years end. No accidents. Mixed - Glide tests, No accidents. No powered Flights - LauncherOne becomes the main focus of the company. Mixed - LauncherOne spun off into new company Virgin OrbitGoogle X-Prize- One attempt this year. It will fail on landing. Wrong Russia-Their space program detriorates further in this year and they lose two boosters. Mixed - 1 launch failure. Angosat in trouble -There is an in flight launch abort for an ISS mission. Wrong - No one dies but it causes a change in US policy. Wrong -Both Orion/SLS and Commercial Crew get a substantial shot in the arm, with increased budgets. Wrong -NASA is made investigate putting Orion on an EELV. Mixed- I heard there was a study done for this in 2017 but not sure-The use of Shenzhou for ISS flights is seriously investigated. Wrong -ESA consider moving ExoMars to Ariane 5. Wrong ESA-A pretty much flawless year of missions for Arianespace and ESA. Correct-They gain a mission due to another country experiencing a launch failure. Wrong - Pressure builds on Europe over the long term future of Ariane 6 due to its lack of reusability. Mixed- Some notional programs to implement it are raised but not at the funding stage yet. Wrong - Minor Programs under way and funded to study it - ESA floats the Moon Village concept but will wait until the Trump space policy emerges before pushing in any particular direction. Mixed - Trump space policy was revealed very late in the year but Moon Village has gained some momentum NASA-NASA has a year of flawless missions but will be in a state of flux due to the incoming administration. Correct - Specatular missions all round, no new administrator yet and agency in flux awaiting new policy to be implemented- There will be a pivot back towards doing a Lunar mission with a mix of commercial and SLS/Orion. Correct- A demonstration Lunar Orbital Habitat gains funding. Wrong Firefly- The company winds up by the end of the year, selling its physical and intellectual assets. Correct - However like a Phoenix in the flames it was reborn in the course of the year which was amazing to see China-One launch failure Mixed - One launch failure, one partial failure - a tremendous 2017 of firsts in the Chinese Space Program Correct - Quantum satellites, Tianzhou refueling demos - Tianzhou is successful Correct - Chang'e 5 sample return is succesful. Wrong - never launched due to CZ5 failure earlier in year -In 2017, they fly the most missions of any country in the world. Wrong - in 3rd place behind Russia and USA - China will make moves to aqcuire space technology from sanction laden Russia such as RD-180 engines. Correct - cooperation agreements signed on thisSkylon/Britain-Reaction Engines get a boost from the British Government to develop Sabre. Wrong - I'm not aware of any additional funding boost in 2017 -The Brexit pushes the UK into using spaceflight as a nationalistic symbol of their capability on the global stage. -Efforts are ramped up to develop a space port. Correct - I believe it even ended up mentioned in The Queen's speechIran-They have a single successful launch. Wrong - a failed launch -Work on a booster in the same capability range as Vega begins Wrong - Nothing in public as of yet -Plans for a Soyuz class booster in the late 2020s begin Wrong - Nothing in public as of yet Turkey-Turkey begins efforts to develop independent access to space similar to Israel. Wrong JapanA succesful year with no failures. Wrong - Test of the smallest orbital rocket ever fails -Japan waits for the outcome of the NASA transition before realigning its space policy. Mixed - NASA still early in transition ULA-ULA picks BE4 for Vulcan. Wrong - Nothing picked yet -They push hard for distributed launch in 2017 as a solution for a Moon program. Mixed - Idea of putting Bigelow Habitat in Lunar Orbit using DL was advertised-ACES engine remains undecided Correct-The idea of converting ACES/Centaur into a Moon lander is floated. Mixed - Was mentioned in the year but has been in previous yeas -They pick up an additional Atlas V launch due to someone else having a failure. Wrong
1. Mike Griffin is not nominated as NASA Administrator, but someone similar to him in goals is.There is no new NASA Administrator as of 12/27/2017, so I'm right on the first count, and wrong on the second.2. FH flies at least twice. F9 flies at least 12 times.Wrong on the first, right on the second.3. Proton suffers a launch failure. Some time afterward, Russia will announce a project to build an interstellar starship (somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but I do expect some kind of unrealistic goal they have no intention of meeting). No, but a Soyuz failed, and a Russian-built satellite was lost shortly after launch. Still giving myself a 0 here.4. ULA launches all payloads essentially flawlessly. Yes.5. Chang'e 5 returns samples from the Moon. To the disappointment of American space buffs, this does not trigger any apparent reaction in Congress or the Executive Branch.No.6. Planet 9 is discovered.Nope7. NASA announces the next Discovery mission in January. Venus is the target.NopeEDIT: According to the NASA Discovery Mission 2015 thread, I'm already wrong on the first count. As to the second...8. NASA keeps #JourneyToMars as its stated goal, but a lunar proving ground is worked in somehow. This may take the form of an LLO space station rather than a surface base, however. Given the increasing prominence of DSG, I think I can call this correct. 9. Full 3.5 MN Raptor test fire.Nope10. EM-1 slips to early 2019. No--it's late 2019/2020 now.
I like the idea of BO being first back to space next year (although: "space", and yes, we will get a few more tweets from Elon telling us the difference between space and orbit). I think Bezos will push for that. And we will all be delighted!I think FH will not fly 2017. At some point in early summer, Elon will announce that the inaugural flight of FH will be the Red Dragon flight in 2018, says that priority is on avoiding further scheduling slips for F9 customers. F9 will do a record number of flights, 12 would be my guess but wouldn't be surprised if it was more (up to 16?). Crew Dragon unmanned flight test will happen in early December. Dream Chaser flies again!Trump Administration sets up review board for ARM, SLS, Orion. Board recommends to end ARM (but keep SEP elements for a general-purpose deep space tug), and to keep SLS and Orion for now, but EM-1 as planned now (2018) is canceled and only the EUS-variant (1B Crew/Cargo) of the SLS will be developed (it also gets a name in the process), EM-1 rescheduled for 2020 or so, to be followed in 2022 by EM-2 (manned). Keep Mars as a long-term goal (we will soon see the first manned NASA landing pushed officially to the 2040ies), but "proving ground" strategy around the Moon (also with an eye towards China) fleshed out in more detail (including commercial resupply of the lunar orbital habitat).More Russian mishaps. More Chinese sucesses (including launch of Tianzhou, the first chinese space station re-supply ship, and Chang-E 5, the latter towards the end of the year).More discoveries in the outer solar system in support of the Planet Nine hypothesis (whether that means I think they will find it, I leave that up to you to decide ).Planet around one of the main Centauri stars found. Its a rocky world too hot for life.