SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[MDMoery]

So I popped in to check the SpaceX launch manifest today.

What happened after 3 Sep? First time I’ve seen the entire future manifest without a single confirmed date.  SpaceX keeping their cards close to their chest for now?

I saw that too and have been wondering if Falcon 9's launch rate has finally outrun the manifest backlog, even with Starlink.

[wannamoonbase]

Sometimes people get busy or on vacation and the list doesn’t get update as frequently. Maybe that’s part of what’s happening here. 

I’m sure we will see 2 per week again soon. 

Less than a month to the next FH and likely SH launch too, so I’m getting my fix. 

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/telesat/status/1701198286147764565

Great News!Telesat Lightspeed satellites will be launched into orbit by @SpaceX using their Falcon 9 rocket. The launches are scheduled to begin in 2026 and SpaceX’s rapid launch cadence will ensure worldwide services available to Telesat customers by 2027

Sounds like pretty aggressive launch schedule. Does it mean all 14 launches in 2026/27 time frame?

(Full press release posted at: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2522846#msg2522846)

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1701261936430567859

Ochinero, on the Telesat Lightspeed launch contract announced today: our use of reusability allows us to absorb vast amounts of launches. Happy to take on more constellations if they need help.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/telesat-buys-spacex-launches-for-lightspeed-internet-satellites.html

Telesat buys SpaceX launches for Lightspeed internet satellites
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 11 202310:51 AM EDT
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Michael Sheetz
@IN/MICHAELJSHEETZ
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

KEY POINTS

Elon Musk’s SpaceX signed a hefty deal with satellite operator Telesat.

The Lightspeed missions will fly on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket.

Telesat still has a 2019 agreement in place with Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin.

Later in the article, Telesat CEO says:

“It’s affordable, it’s reliable … they can launch multiple satellites a week. It’s phenomenal,”

[FutureSpaceTourist]

twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1701311370879443443

SpaceX is undoubtedly the only company in the world that could promise a single customer 14 launches in less than two years and have it be believable! I'm sure the price didn't hurt, but it sounds like SpaceX's historic launch cadence is already having direct commercial payoffs.

https://twitter.com/xdnibor/status/1701350919932186876

Any other companies needs to make 14 boosters, SpaceX needs 1

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>

Great News!Telesat Lightspeed satellites will be launched into orbit by @SpaceX using their Falcon 9 rocket. The launches are scheduled to begin in 2026 and SpaceX’s rapid launch cadence will ensure worldwide services available to Telesat customers by 2027

Sounds like pretty aggressive launch schedule. Does it mean all 14 launches in 2026/27 time frame?
<snip>

In order for global coverage by 2027, think the Lightspeed constellation deployment by SpaceX will be during the first three quarters of 2026 for orbit raising to be completed for the initial 156 satcoms. Maybe monthly launches from the Space coast and Vandenberg. Additional West Coast launch capacity should be available with the addition of pad SLC-6 by 2026.

[zubenelgenubi]

Why are Starlink 6-18 and 6-19 still listed on NextSF as NET October (as of this posting)?  If current trends continue, they are NET (late) September from SLC-40.

[AmigaClone]

twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1701311370879443443

SpaceX is undoubtedly the only company in the world that could promise a single customer 14 launches in less than two years and have it be believable! I'm sure the price didn't hurt, but it sounds like SpaceX's historic launch cadence is already having direct commercial payoffs.

https://twitter.com/xdnibor/status/1701350919932186876

Any other companies needs to make 14 boosters, SpaceX needs 1

In practice I imagine SpaceX spreading those 14 launches over 3-6 boosters, especially if the missions are launched from both coasts. Because of that, any booster(s) SpaceX might build as a result of this contract could even be built some time after the last launch safely reaches orbit.

[Alexphysics]

I know there's been quite a lot of confusing jumps on the schedule of certain classified missions for SpaceX. This is not just for them but also ULA and such and if you remember it's also been a problem for a while as well (see USSF-44 being delayed 2 years). Not sure what's going on but it doesn't look like military payloads have had the best of luck lately trying to be on schedule.

This is in relation with the USSF-124 mission jumping back and forth on nextspaceflight from NET November to NET October 31st, etc. We'll see what happens with that mission - same with USSF-52 and friends.

[zubenelgenubi]

Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?

[kevin-rf]

Besides Psyche?

[Josh_from_Canada]

Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?

I'm going to expand this question to ask what are all of the non-Starlink launches scheduled to launch before the end of 2023?

[GewoonLukas_]

Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?

I'm going to expand this question to ask what are all of the non-Starlink launches scheduled to launch before the end of 2023?

Based on the most recent available information, I believe these are all the non-Starlink launches targeted to launch before the end of this year:
- Psyche (Oct. 5)
- O3b mPOWER 5 & 6 (Oct.)

- Cargo Dragon CRS-29 (Nov. 1)
- Nova-C IM-1 (Nov. 15)
- USSF-52 (Nov. 30)
- USSF-124 (Nov.)
- Transporter-9 (Nov.)

- Cygnus NG-20 (Dec. 11)
- Nusantara Lima (Dec.)
- Ovzon-3 (Dec. / Jan.)

- Astranis Block 2
- SARah 2 & 3

There are a couple of launches, such as WorldView Legion and O3b mPOWER 7 & 8, that could theoretically still launch this year, but that I'm less certain about.

[zubenelgenubi]

Will there be any non-Starlink October Florida Falcon 9 launches from Florida, other than the mPower-C launch?

Besides Psyche?

Falcon Heavy launch, but your point is taken.

[realnouns]

The last 3 Starlink missions from SLC-40 (6-16, 6-17, 6-18) were all at 11:38pm ET?  Am I reading that correctly?  Significance?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

The last 3 Starlink missions from SLC-40 (6-16, 6-17, 6-18) were all at 11:38pm ET?  Am I reading that correctly?  Significance?

Seems like all were coincidences (-16 was first planned almost 24 hours before at 12:03 am; -17 at 10:47 pm; -18 at 9:07 pm); also the seconds were all different (6-16: :30 6-17: :10 6-18: :20).

[rsdavis9]

The last 3 Starlink missions from SLC-40 (6-16, 6-17, 6-18) were all at 11:38pm ET?  Am I reading that correctly?  Significance?

Seems like all were coincidences (-16 was first planned almost 24 hours before at 12:03 am; -17 at 10:47 pm; -18 at 9:07 pm); also the seconds were all different (6-16: :30 6-17: :10 6-18: :20).

CC-1138 was the number for the clone trooper commander Bacara. Cell Block 1138 allegedly was a detention block aboard the first Death Star from which Luke Skywalker and Han Solo claimed to be transferring Chewbacca as a prisoner.

Maybe?

[ZachS09]

Still wonder why the most recent Starlink launches were delayed past the first windows on their respective launch days.

All SpaceX reports is "Now targeting [insert new T0 time here]". Nothing else.

[rsdavis9]

Still wonder why the most recent Starlink launches were delayed past the first windows on their respective launch days.

All SpaceX reports is "Now targeting [insert new T0 time here]". Nothing else.

Thunderstorm activity in summer months? So delay and increase probability of launch.