I really don’t think Centaur V is likely to be a pacing item. It’s a series of moderate improvements to an existing base. However it’s doing, I strongly suspect it’s fine.
Another potential issue is Centaur designer continuity. Clearly ULA knows how to build and operate the existing Centaur. But designing a new stage involves different skill sets (designing tooling, designing new tests, setting time scales for new development, and so on). New Centaur stages are not developed very often (often decades apart), enough to raise uncertainty of how much experience remains of the process of designing new variants. Even if few of the old designers are left, it's not a show stopper, but it might contribute to schedule uncertainty.
Quote from: LouScheffer on 06/25/2022 02:08 amAnother potential issue is Centaur designer continuity. Clearly ULA knows how to build and operate the existing Centaur. But designing a new stage involves different skill sets (designing tooling, designing new tests, setting time scales for new development, and so on). New Centaur stages are not developed very often (often decades apart), enough to raise uncertainty of how much experience remains of the process of designing new variants. Even if few of the old designers are left, it's not a show stopper, but it might contribute to schedule uncertainty.They had the experience from the dual Centaur for Starliner. The existing Centaur is less than 20 years old.
Quote from: Jim on 06/25/2022 06:38 pmQuote from: LouScheffer on 06/25/2022 02:08 amAnother potential issue is Centaur designer continuity. Clearly ULA knows how to build and operate the existing Centaur. But designing a new stage involves different skill sets (designing tooling, designing new tests, setting time scales for new development, and so on). New Centaur stages are not developed very often (often decades apart), enough to raise uncertainty of how much experience remains of the process of designing new variants. Even if few of the old designers are left, it's not a show stopper, but it might contribute to schedule uncertainty.They had the experience from the dual Centaur for Starliner. The existing Centaur is less than 20 years old.How much of the DEC on Atlas V was inherited from the (only used once!) DEC for Altas IIIB? They're both "Common Centaur", but presumably they'd be far from interchangeable between vehicles.
In related news, ULA CEO @torybruno tells @AviationWeek Vulcan's first flight can be pushed until early '23 if customer, @astrobotic, needs more time to finish work on its Peregrine lunar lander. As a backup, @ulalaunch is preparing a dummy payload for Vulcan-Centaur 1.
https://twitter.com/free_space/status/1541872682161131521QuoteIn related news, ULA CEO @torybruno tells @AviationWeek Vulcan's first flight can be pushed until early '23 if customer, @astrobotic, needs more time to finish work on its Peregrine lunar lander. As a backup, @ulalaunch is preparing a dummy payload for Vulcan-Centaur 1.
https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1543308960622690304
More from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.
Quote from: Vahe231991 on 07/03/2022 02:33 pmMore from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.OK, they really did get the engines in early summer and they have a whole six months to finish and still fly in 2022. I'm more hopeful now.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 07/03/2022 03:27 pmQuote from: Vahe231991 on 07/03/2022 02:33 pmMore from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.OK, they really did get the engines in early summer and they have a whole six months to finish and still fly in 2022. I'm more hopeful now.The engines are not qualified yet. Blue has engines they are currently testing on. Also, its not early summer anymore.
More from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:{tweet snipped}Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.
More from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1543566095180865538Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.
Quote from: deadman1204 on 07/03/2022 03:44 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 07/03/2022 03:27 pmQuote from: Vahe231991 on 07/03/2022 02:33 pmMore from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.OK, they really did get the engines in early summer and they have a whole six months to finish and still fly in 2022. I'm more hopeful now.The engines are not qualified yet. Blue has engines they are currently testing on. Also, its not early summer anymore.Summer started on 21 June, so it's a matter of interpretation. I do agree that since the engines are still in Kent, while ULA technically accepted delivery, they cannot yet be integrated. You are right: this is another case of Bruno describing the situation in the most optimistic way he can, and my hope may still be dashed.
Quote from: Vahe231991 on 07/03/2022 02:33 pmMore from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1543566095180865538Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.Where does it say the engines were delivered, or handed over to ULA?This "promise made, promise kept" is not in the tweet from Tory. I think some people are assuming things.
Quote from: Vahe231991 on 07/03/2022 02:33 pmMore from Tony Bruno regarding the BE-4 engines for the Vulcan:https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1543566095180865538Another example of the "promise made, promise kept" action by Blue Origin to hand over the BE-4 engines to ULA to be used in the first launch of the Vulcan rocket.They are about two and a half years late. At announcement the plan was a mid 2020 first launch, which implies a late 2019 flight engine delivery date.
Tory Bruno tweeted some, to paraphrase my 15-year-old daughter, bussin images of the BE-4 flight engines. Per a source, given final production and test time, the earliest likely delivery to ULA is late August.
If we're tracking issues before Vulcan's debut flight, there is also the readiness of the Astrobotic payload as well as the new Centaur upper stage. My sense is that, if they fly without a customer, Q1 2023 is likely, and later in 2023 if they wait for Astrobotic.
given that the companies that form the United Launch Alliance designed the Delta IV and Atlas V?
What percentage of components for the Vulcan rocket are derived from the Atlas V, and what percentage are derived from the Delta IV
