Author Topic: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI  (Read 18623 times)

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« on: 02/16/2018 06:20 pm »
I just watched a video from August of last year where Open AI was matched against a game player and won. Then the video went into a discussion of the Alphago defeat of the GO player. It got me thinking about whether or not SpaceX (or any of Musk's companies) was using this technology. Even in it's most rudimentary or primitive roll out, it would be a very powerful tool...

This is more a place holder for future discussions about this topic, as relates to the developments in the near future.
perhaps I should have made this an update thread, Chris or Lar you may want to consider that... I have realized in the last 2 months just how imminent Primitive AI is, in real world applications and think it is important we begin to think about it...

Gramps "Earthling by Birth, Martian by the grace of The Elon." ~ "Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou ~ Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline mlindner

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #1 on: 02/16/2018 06:58 pm »
No. SpaceX's problems are well constrained and don't require AI to solve them. AI is reserved for problems that are otherwise impossible to solve without AI. SpaceX's problems are mostly control system problems (automated vehicle landing) that AI is poorly suited towards.
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline Roy_H

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #2 on: 02/16/2018 07:08 pm »
No. SpaceX's problems are well constrained and don't require AI to solve them. AI is reserved for problems that are otherwise impossible to solve without AI. SpaceX's problems are mostly control system problems (automated vehicle landing) that AI is poorly suited towards.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. AI has been around for a long time now. I remember reading many years ago about NASA using AI to design a new antenna for one of their outer planet space probes. It was far removed from anything I have seen, looked like a bent coat hanger, one single rod with about 3 fairly sharp bends more or less pointed at earth. This was apparently superior to anything else from a performance, mass, size viewpoint.
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Offline mlindner

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #3 on: 02/16/2018 07:51 pm »
No. SpaceX's problems are well constrained and don't require AI to solve them. AI is reserved for problems that are otherwise impossible to solve without AI. SpaceX's problems are mostly control system problems (automated vehicle landing) that AI is poorly suited towards.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. AI has been around for a long time now. I remember reading many years ago about NASA using AI to design a new antenna for one of their outer planet space probes. It was far removed from anything I have seen, looked like a bent coat hanger, one single rod with about 3 fairly sharp bends more or less pointed at earth. This was apparently superior to anything else from a performance, mass, size viewpoint.

Yes, that's using genetic algorithms to solve for an antenna design problem. However these are quite slow and you aren't guaranteed to find the best solution or even a good solution. Good description of the issues with them: https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-disadvantage-of-genetic-algorithm

I haven't read NASA's paper but I expect they ran many many simulation runs until they found one that happened to make an antenna that was better than what humans had designed.

There's one other telling sign. If it was so much better, why aren't they using it? Those experiments were over a decade ago. There were likely drawbacks not included in the news reporting about the antenna.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2018 07:57 pm by mlindner »
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline su27k

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #4 on: 02/17/2018 02:48 am »
Just to put my words in before this gets locked by mods (a similar thread in Advanced Concept already disappeared into the ether): OpenAI is mostly pure research, they don't focus on practical applications (except maybe AI safety). Their results are built on others in the field, and they publish their research in papers so that others can built on it. So there wouldn't exactly be "technology from Open AI", a better question is whether SpaceX will use machine learning technology (Deep Learning and Reinforcement Learning in particular) in their work.

The game player AI is based on Reinforcement Learning, its practical application for SpaceX may be robotics that can learn by following human demonstration, instead of being programmed, although this application is still in its infancy. More mature machine learning technology would be Deep Learning based computer vision, which should be able to replace anything that requires human vision.
« Last Edit: 02/17/2018 02:49 am by su27k »

Offline JH

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #5 on: 02/17/2018 03:02 am »
Musk mentioned a few weeks ago that Tesla used machine learning techniques to develop automatic windscreen wipers that don't require a dedicated moisture sensor (they just use the visible and IR cameras that are included for self-driving).

Offline AncientU

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #6 on: 02/17/2018 04:08 pm »
AI will be needed for Mars surface operations.  Previously discussed concepts like 'mining droids' will need some brains and autonomy, since they cannot be operated like the Mars rovers if they actually need to get significant work done.  Autonomous vehicles on Mars will also need to navigate, avoid obstacles, respond to summons, etc., so many of the tools built for Tesla autonomous driving will be applicable, including AI.
« Last Edit: 02/17/2018 04:10 pm by AncientU »
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Offline hkultala

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #7 on: 02/17/2018 09:38 pm »
Maybe the main control computer of the BFSs will be called "HAL" ;)

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #8 on: 02/18/2018 02:56 am »
Maybe the main control computer of the BFSs will be called "HAL" ;)

Personally I'm partial to Helva - The Ship Who Sang :D

thank you to everyone that has chipped in... I didn't realize there was a previous thread, so if the mods want to lock this one, then that's ok.... I have a good idea where the thoughts of those who should know on the subject rest....

Cheers,
Gramps....
Gramps "Earthling by Birth, Martian by the grace of The Elon." ~ "Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou ~ Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline Jdeshetler

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #9 on: 02/18/2018 03:37 am »
Maybe the main control computer of the BFSs will be called "HAL" ;)

I hoped so.

Elon usually named his SpaceX products based on his favorite science fiction novels and movies. 

Offline Lar

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #10 on: 02/18/2018 03:45 am »
if someone can PM me the previous thread I'll merge them (if it makes sense to do so)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online niwax

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #11 on: 02/18/2018 06:09 am »
Maybe the main control computer of the BFSs will be called "HAL" ;)

I hoped so.

Elon usually named his SpaceX products based on his favorite science fiction novels and movies.

GERTY from moon would also be great. Is there a popular science fiction AI that isn't evil or dystopian though?
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Offline guckyfan

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #12 on: 02/18/2018 08:27 am »
Is there a popular science fiction AI that isn't evil or dystopian though?

The main computer of the lunar settlement in The moon is a harsh mistress.

Offline IRobot

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #13 on: 02/18/2018 09:58 am »
I just watched a video from August of last year where Open AI was matched against a game player and won. Then the video went into a discussion of the Alphago defeat of the GO player. It got me thinking about whether or not SpaceX (or any of Musk's companies) was using this technology. Even in it's most rudimentary or primitive roll out, it would be a very powerful tool...
No. In this field (rocket launches) you want deterministic behaviors. How do you qualify an AI system? How do you test it and how do you ensure a 100% test coverage if the behavior is not deterministic?

Not to mention development costs. an AI system is actually quite expensive to create. Not only you need developers, you need people to "train" the system, and even people to train the people who train the system!
Then you need to collect a huge amount of data.

I'm sure even your fridge could benefit from AI system, for example to regulate cooling depending on users habits and types and quantities of food. But is it worth it?




Offline AncientU

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #14 on: 02/18/2018 11:19 am »
I just watched a video from August of last year where Open AI was matched against a game player and won. Then the video went into a discussion of the Alphago defeat of the GO player. It got me thinking about whether or not SpaceX (or any of Musk's companies) was using this technology. Even in it's most rudimentary or primitive roll out, it would be a very powerful tool...
No. In this field (rocket launches) you want deterministic behaviors. How do you qualify an AI system? How do you test it and how do you ensure a 100% test coverage if the behavior is not deterministic?

Not to mention development costs. an AI system is actually quite expensive to create. Not only you need developers, you need people to "train" the system, and even people to train the people who train the system!
Then you need to collect a huge amount of data.

I'm sure even your fridge could benefit from AI system, for example to regulate cooling depending on users habits and types and quantities of food. But is it worth it?

This field is or could be vastly more than rocket launches.  AI may be one of the tools that make expansion of the field possible -- determinism hasn't gotten us very far off planet.  Building a settlement, for instance, is a highly non-deterministic process if it is anything beyond a few tin cans. 
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Offline francesco nicoli

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #15 on: 02/18/2018 11:52 am »
Is there a popular science fiction AI that isn't evil or dystopian though?

The main computer of the lunar settlement in The moon is a harsh mistress.

Well, Robots in Asimov are the good guys, most of the time.


Offline guckyfan

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #16 on: 02/18/2018 12:08 pm »
Well, Robots in Asimov are the good guys, most of the time.

It's from Heinlein. But in those days SF was generally more optimistic.

Offline Lar

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #17 on: 02/18/2018 12:21 pm »
Well, Robots in Asimov are the good guys, most of the time.

It's from Heinlein. But in those days SF was generally more optimistic.
I think Francesco knew that, but was giving another example. I'd agree that many robots and AIs back then were good guys. Gay Deceiver from Number of the Beast, for another Heinlein example....
« Last Edit: 02/18/2018 01:03 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Barrie

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #18 on: 02/18/2018 12:41 pm »
Well, Robots in Asimov are the good guys, most of the time.

It's from Heinlein. But in those days SF was generally more optimistic.

As I recall, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress was written back in the day when people thought that if a computer was upgraded until it was big enough, it would spontaneously become intelligent.

Offline Lar

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Re: Will SpaceX using technology from Open AI
« Reply #19 on: 02/18/2018 01:06 pm »
Well, Robots in Asimov are the good guys, most of the time.

It's from Heinlein. But in those days SF was generally more optimistic.

As I recall, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress was written back in the day when people thought that if a computer was upgraded until it was big enough, it would spontaneously become intelligent.

That's not EXACTLY true in Mike's case, as that mainframe had been given lots of augmented capability for heuristic decision making, etc. But yeah, we've discounted the notion that if you exceed the number of neurons and interconnects we have, something will arise spontaneously in a reasonable time frame. It can't be disproven[1], but it seems like the time (*even at electronic time rates*) might have to be very very long.

1 - because we don't know how our intelligence arose
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

 

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