Author Topic: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)  (Read 50252 times)

Offline Tywin

70$ now :o
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline sstli2

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1049
  • New York City
  • Liked: 1298
  • Likes Given: 300
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #21 on: 08/07/2025 06:05 pm »
Sorry, I was incorrect. It actually implies a ~$10B valuation, which is even more ludicrous. I remain convinced that people pour money into these new space stocks thinking it's correlated with / gives them exposure to SpaceX.

Online sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8675
  • “With peace and hope for all mankind.”
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 3065
  • Likes Given: 2811
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #22 on: 08/07/2025 06:26 pm »
Opened at $70/sh compared with the IPO price of $45, now trading intra-day around $63. The IPO was for 19.3 million shares.

19.3 x 63 =~ $1.2 billion in market capitalization.
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline sstli2

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1049
  • New York City
  • Liked: 1298
  • Likes Given: 300
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #23 on: 08/07/2025 06:46 pm »
Opened at $70/sh compared with the IPO price of $45, now trading intra-day around $63. The IPO was for 19.3 million shares.

19.3 x 63 =~ $1.2 billion in market capitalization.

It's a diluted equity stake. Per CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/rocket-maker-firefly-aerospace-fly-stock-ipo.html

Quote
Shares started trading at $70 each under the ticker symbol FLY. The initial price values the company at close to $10 billion.


Offline ShinodaChan

  • Member
  • Posts: 49
  • Liked: 74
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #24 on: 08/07/2025 06:46 pm »
Suffice to say, FLY is a little overvalued right now...wouldn't advise anyone to buy in at this point.

Offline TrevorMonty

AEI Partners will be happy with price, they would've made a nice profit after buy their stake for peanuts. To be fair they have invested in company.

Offline Tywin

Under 20$ is a look up...but now is overvalue.
« Last Edit: 08/07/2025 07:53 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Online catdlr

  • She will always be part of me.
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29530
  • Enthusiast since the Redstone and Thunderbirds
  • Marina del Rey, California, USA
  • Liked: 24298
  • Likes Given: 13982
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #27 on: 08/07/2025 10:13 pm »
Quote
We rocket-powered the @Nasdaq opening bell.

$FLY https://nasdaq.com/newsroom/texas-innovator-takes-flight-nasdaq-firefly-launches-ipo

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1953555876968554792

Quote
Today, @Firefly_Space becomes the newest member of the @Nasdaq family. Welcome home, $FLY! 🔔 Catch the highlights. 🎥

https://twitter.com/NasdaqExchange/status/1953557102883918098



Quote
Nasdaq@Nasdaq
🚀
@Firefly_Space, rooted in Texas, made its debut on @Nasdaq. From IPO celebrations to landmark legislation, Nasdaq is proud to stand alongside Texas leaders driving economic growth, innovation, and governance.

Read more: http://spr.ly/6018fcwUo

https://x.com/Nasdaq/status/1953535961767252208
« Last Edit: 08/07/2025 10:31 pm by catdlr »
PSA #3:  Paywall? View this video on how-to temporary Disable Java-Script: youtu.be/KvBv16tw-UM
A golden rule from Chris B:  "focus on what is being said, not disparage people who say it."

Offline Tywin

The best news is they get 800 million Cash now...that is important for Eclipse and other stuff in the future...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Online catdlr

  • She will always be part of me.
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29530
  • Enthusiast since the Redstone and Thunderbirds
  • Marina del Rey, California, USA
  • Liked: 24298
  • Likes Given: 13982
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #29 on: 08/09/2025 02:09 am »
Kudos to NSF on this post

Quote
Jason Halter@ereboros
Wanted to celebrate @Firefly_Space  going public yesterday by sharing some bts shots from Flight 6 that never got posted. Haven’t talked about it much, but serving as floor manager for the last three launch broadcasts has absolutely been one of the highlights of my career.

PSA #3:  Paywall? View this video on how-to temporary Disable Java-Script: youtu.be/KvBv16tw-UM
A golden rule from Chris B:  "focus on what is being said, not disparage people who say it."

Offline pilottim

  • Member
  • Posts: 45
  • New Mexico
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #30 on: 08/11/2025 12:46 am »
Really wondering how much NOC put up for Firefly that AEI said no to...AEI wins anyways even if NOC ended up buying Firefly for below their initial offering price (like Lockmart/Terran), because they will still get a fat cash out 6 months from now. 

Online AndrewM

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1491
  • United States
  • Liked: 1552
  • Likes Given: 1356
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #31 on: 09/13/2025 06:58 pm »
https://twitter.com/GoldmanSachs/status/1963697359025578109 [Sep 4]

Quote
On August 6, Firefly Aerospace (@Firefly_Space $FLY) successfully priced its $1B IPO—representing the largest-ever space & defense technology IPO. Goldman Sachs served as lead left bookrunner.

Offline jstrotha0975

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 841
  • United States
  • Liked: 463
  • Likes Given: 3764
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #32 on: 09/13/2025 07:31 pm »
How can Firefly be more valuable than Rocket lab?

Offline lightleviathan

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 624
  • washington dc
  • Liked: 558
  • Likes Given: 192
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #33 on: 09/13/2025 07:44 pm »
How can Firefly be more valuable than Rocket Lab?

Traders very rarely do research on the companies they invest in, and are often subject to hype.

Online sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8675
  • “With peace and hope for all mankind.”
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 3065
  • Likes Given: 2811
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #34 on: 09/14/2025 02:49 am »
How can Firefly be more valuable than Rocket lab?

This analysis relies on the standard model of 'market capitalization' that multiplies the market price and the total shares outstanding. Set aside for the moment the question of lock-ups that prohibit some holders from selling and consider the price at which big holders would choose to sell. If they have an interest in maintaining voting control (possibly a non-financial interest like sentimental attachment to the enterprise) it doesn't fully make sense to count their shares in the total valuation.

Are there only 22,190,400 shares in circulation right now? (All the others locked-up?) Those are the shares market participants are bidding for. As an example, one director (Pamela Braden) increased their holdings, acquiring additional shares at the $45 IPO price. FLY currently trades below that, indicating the market values the shares less than an insider.
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Online AndrewM

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1491
  • United States
  • Liked: 1552
  • Likes Given: 1356
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #35 on: 09/24/2025 07:36 pm »
Firefly held their 1st earnings call (Q2 2025) on September 22nd.

Presentation
Form 8-K
Form 10-Q

Items that I saw that I found notable in the presentation were:
- 1st Elytra mission (New Glenn launch) is still targeting 2025.
- Eclipse is targeting 1st launch in 2026 but no mention of Antares 330.
- Pad 0A at Wallops is targeting 2026 for 1st launch while LC-3C at Esrange is in 2027. I believe both of these previously were planned for 2026.
- $15.5M in revenue in Q2 2025 vs $21.1M in Q2 2024 but $71.4M in revenue in H1 2025 vs $29.4M in H1 2024.

Then in the 10-Q, it seems like a 5th Blue Ghost mission has been ordered.
Quote
Additionally, we have been selected by a proprietary commercial customer for a separate dedicated Blue Ghost lander mission.

Firefly's current backlog (as of July 31) is $1.3B. The multi-launch agreements that Firefly has but don't have scheduled missions account for $344.8M of that backlog.

Online sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8675
  • “With peace and hope for all mankind.”
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 3065
  • Likes Given: 2811
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #36 on: 09/30/2025 08:44 pm »
The test stand anomaly seems to have let some of the air out of the valuation bubble. Leveraged long positions have likely been feeling pressure. In the original filing the IPO price was expected to be in the range between $35 and $39 per share; anything above that certainly looked frothy. Now that it's trading below $30 it might be fun to speculate on whether that initial range was 'priced to perfection' or allowed for some anomalies along the way. 
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Online AndrewM

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1491
  • United States
  • Liked: 1552
  • Likes Given: 1356
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #37 on: 10/10/2025 01:57 am »
Looks like Firefly is hit with their first likely frivolous lawsuit as a result of the FLTA007 stage 1 anomaly.

Securities Fraud Investigation Into Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Announced – Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged To Contact Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a Leading Securities Fraud Law Firm [Oct. 3]

Quote
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a leading national shareholder rights law firm, today announced that it has commenced an investigation on behalf of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (“Firefly” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: FLY) investors concerning the Company’s possible violations of the federal securities laws.

IF YOU ARE AN INVESTOR WHO LOST MONEY ON FIREFLY AEROSPACE INC. (FLY), CLICK HERE TO INQUIRE ABOUT POTENTIALLY PURSUING CLAIMS TO RECOVER YOUR LOSS.

What Happened?

On September 29, 2025, Firefly disclosed that during testing, the first stage of its Alpha Flight 7 rocket “experienced an event that resulted in a loss of the stage.”

On this news, Firefly’s stock price fell $10.29, or 27.8%, over two consecutive trading days to close at $26.67 per share on October 1, 2025, thereby injuring investors.

Offline TrevorMonty

Looks like Firefly is hit with their first likely frivolous lawsuit as a result of the FLTA007 stage 1 anomaly.

Securities Fraud Investigation Into Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Announced – Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged To Contact Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a Leading Securities Fraud Law Firm [Oct. 3]

Quote
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a leading national shareholder rights law firm, today announced that it has commenced an investigation on behalf of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (“Firefly” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: FLY) investors concerning the Company’s possible violations of the federal securities laws.

IF YOU ARE AN INVESTOR WHO LOST MONEY ON FIREFLY AEROSPACE INC. (FLY), CLICK HERE TO INQUIRE ABOUT POTENTIALLY PURSUING CLAIMS TO RECOVER YOUR LOSS.

What Happened?

On September 29, 2025, Firefly disclosed that during testing, the first stage of its Alpha Flight 7 rocket “experienced an event that resulted in a loss of the stage.”

On this news, Firefly’s stock price fell $10.29, or 27.8%, over two consecutive trading days to close at $26.67 per share on October 1, 2025, thereby injuring investors.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Pursuing this lawsuit is great way for investor to devalue their shares. Only winner will be law firm if successful.

Online AndrewM

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1491
  • United States
  • Liked: 1552
  • Likes Given: 1356
Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #39 on: 10/29/2025 02:01 am »
The acquisition of SciTec was already discussed in the general Firefly thread but cross-posting here for the financial side of it.

Firefly Aerospace Announces Strategic Acquisition of SciTec to Advance National Security Capabilities [Oct. 5]

Quote
Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY), a market leading space and defense technology company, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SciTec, Inc., a leader in advanced national security technologies, for approximately $855 million through a combination of $300 million in cash and $555 million in Firefly shares issued to SciTec owners at a price of $50 per share.

“The acquisition of SciTec enhances our ability to support a growing number of defense missions and provides us with a significant operational advantage,” said Jason Kim, CEO of Firefly Aerospace. “SciTec’s mission-proven software and big data processing capabilities provide warfighters with rapid, accurate information to enable informed decisions that protect our homeland from emerging threats. These capabilities significantly enhance our ability to deliver integrated, software-defined solutions for critical national security imperatives, particularly Golden Dome. We are excited to welcome the SciTec team to the Firefly family and look forward to working together to continue to deliver leading edge solutions to advance our country’s strategic advantage in space.”

The acquisition will advance Firefly’s comprehensive space services by adding mission-proven defense software analytics, remote sensing, and multi-phenomenology data expertise. SciTec’s core capabilities – which include missile warning, tracking and defense, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, space domain awareness, and autonomous command and control – will supplement Firefly’s launch, lunar, and in-space services. SciTec further adds ground and onboard data processing as well as AI-enabled systems designed for low latency operations to support advanced threat tracking and response across multiple domains.

SciTec generated revenues of approximately $164 million for the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2025, driven by robust contracts supporting the intelligence community, defense and national security agencies, and commercial customers. Earlier this year, SciTec was awarded a $259 million contract by the U.S. Space Force to further enhance the Future Operational Resilient Ground Evolution (FORGE) framework. SciTec is delivering a scalable, cyber-secure ground processing capability to strengthen the Space Force’s missile warning and tracking mission and accelerate threat-responsive solutions for warfighters.

“We believe Firefly is the best home for our business and people,” said Jim Lisowski, CEO SciTec. “In addition to the strong strategic fit, our cultures are similar. Both teams are empowered, rapid innovators who are passionate about our critical missions and willing to take on near impossible tasks to ensure we protect our country from future threats. We share a unique focus on providing differentiated, leading-edge solutions to our customers.”

SciTec is headquartered in Princeton, N.J., and maintains five additional facilities strategically positioned near key space and defense customers.

The acquisition is expected to close by year end 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions. Once finalized, SciTec will be operated as a Firefly subsidiary under its current business model led by Jim Lisowski, current CEO of SciTec, who will report to Firefly’s CEO Jason Kim.

Firefly Aerospace to Announce Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 12, 2025 [Oct. 27]

Quote
Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY), a market leading space and defense technology company, today announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results for the period ended September 30, 2025, on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, after market close.

Firefly will hold a conference call the same day at 4:00 p.m. CT / 5:00 p.m. ET. A live webcast of the call and a replay will be available in the Investors section of the Company’s website at https://investors.fireflyspace.com.

The financial results news release will be posted in the Investors section of the Company’s website under the “News” section. Additional materials supporting the conference call and financial results release will be posted under the "Events & Resources" section.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0