Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024  (Read 35274 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #20 on: 12/05/2023 06:45 am »
Plan to launch about once a week from VAFB in 2024 (and double that in 2025 …):

https://www.noozhawk.com/spacex-launch-rate-at-vandenberg-sfb-could-soar-to-100-by-2025/

Quote
SpaceX Yearly Launch Rate at Vandenberg SFB Could Soar to 100 by 2025
EconAlliance Future Forum attendees hear about ambitious plans to bring Falcon Heavy rocket to West Coast

by Janene Scully | Noozhawk North County Editor
December 4, 2023 | 6:23 pm

A busy SpaceX soon will be even busier with the addition of a second launch pad and a heavy rocket at Vandenberg Space Force Base, where the firm’s yearly liftoff rate could reach 100 in a couple years.

Nate Janzen, manager of launch pad systems and operations for SpaceX at Vandenberg and a 10-year employee of the firm, spoke last week during the 10th annual celebration and Future Forum for the Economic Alliance Foundation, or EconAlliance, at the Santa Maria Country Club.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #21 on: 12/05/2023 07:15 am »
LOL I remember when many of us thought 2020 would be the peak F9 year as starship/BFR would take over by then… now 2025 looks to be about 10 times as many F9 launches as 2020 had, or close to it.
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Online ZachF

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #22 on: 12/06/2023 11:30 am »
 
LOL I remember when many of us thought 2020 would be the peak F9 year as starship/BFR would take over by then… now 2025 looks to be about 10 times as many F9 launches as 2020 had, or close to it.

Yeah with announced Vandy expansion and new Starship pads, I think 200 launches could be the number for 2025… and some people STILL stick their heads in the sand over reuse.  :o
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Offline steveleach

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #23 on: 12/06/2023 12:14 pm »
 
LOL I remember when many of us thought 2020 would be the peak F9 year as starship/BFR would take over by then… now 2025 looks to be about 10 times as many F9 launches as 2020 had, or close to it.

Yeah with announced Vandy expansion and new Starship pads, I think 200 launches could be the number for 2025… and some people STILL stick their heads in the sand over reuse.  :o
If the month-on-month growth continues as it has been since 2021 then they'll be at something like 215 for 2025 (not including Starship), but we're getting well ahead of ourselves now.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #24 on: 12/06/2023 12:56 pm »
 Man, I'd like to see the 2nd stage/refurb/recovery/launch budgets.
  It's like the Tesla margins once they get a model going. If competitors can't compete with MSRP, what will they do when they find out Musk Inc. could cut the price by 40% and still stay in business?
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 01:11 pm by Nomadd »
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Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #25 on: 12/06/2023 01:33 pm »
Man, I'd like to see the 2nd stage/refurb/recovery/launch budgets.
  It's like the Tesla margins once they get a model going. If competitors can't compete with MSRP, what will they do when they find out Musk Inc. could cut the price by 40% and still stay in business?

I suspect we might never see those numbers, although it would be interesting - especially if the refurbishment budget included details on the cost of certain common items that might need refurbishment/replacement and the relative frequency of needing to refurbish those items.

For recovery, there might be a several of ranges depending on if the mission is an RLTS. For drone ship landings, it's distance from port and possibly even which coast would have an effect as well.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #26 on: 12/06/2023 07:10 pm »
Man, I'd like to see the 2nd stage/refurb/recovery/launch budgets.
  It's like the Tesla margins once they get a model going. If competitors can't compete with MSRP, what will they do when they find out Musk Inc. could cut the price by 40% and still stay in business?
Second Stage?? I think for 2024, we won't see any Second stage recoveries, since that is Starship and the 144 is almost entirely Falcon 9. I would like to see details on falcon 9 booster refurb, and specifically on the frequency of Merlin replacements if any.

Online kenny008

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #27 on: 12/06/2023 08:49 pm »
Man, I'd like to see the 2nd stage/refurb/recovery/launch budgets.
  It's like the Tesla margins once they get a model going. If competitors can't compete with MSRP, what will they do when they find out Musk Inc. could cut the price by 40% and still stay in business?
Second Stage?? I think for 2024, we won't see any Second stage recoveries, since that is Starship and the 144 is almost entirely Falcon 9. I would like to see details on falcon 9 booster refurb, and specifically on the frequency of Merlin replacements if any.
I think he is saying, Costs for Second Stage production, (booster) refurbishment, (booster) recovery, and launch budgets.  It's that comma thing.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #28 on: 12/06/2023 08:59 pm »
Additionally, I think SpaceX would like to try recovering Starship in 2024, altho I agree a slip to 2025+ is more likely.
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Offline spacenut

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #29 on: 12/06/2023 09:14 pm »
For more F9 launches on the east coast, wouldn't they have to build/buy another drone ship for recoveries?  Also, if Vulcan and New Glenn get to launching, wouldn't they make time out gaps in F9 launches?  Maybe SpaceX needs another launch site on the east coast, Wallops Island maybe?  Boca Chica is already under scrutiny because of Starship/Superheavy launches, so probably no F9's from there.  Maybe another Texas launch site? 

Offline Brigantine

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #30 on: 12/06/2023 10:01 pm »
What would it take for SpaceX to pursue a launch site beyond the frontiers of the US? Fr. Guyana, Japan or somewhere new. Is that too adventurous for them? (or maybe for their customers?)

I mean, it would help when the US govt shuts down to still have a functional general purpose launch site
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 10:03 pm by Brigantine »

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #31 on: 12/06/2023 10:02 pm »
Man, I'd like to see the 2nd stage/refurb/recovery/launch budgets.
  It's like the Tesla margins once they get a model going. If competitors can't compete with MSRP, what will they do when they find out Musk Inc. could cut the price by 40% and still stay in business?
Second Stage?? I think for 2024, we won't see any Second stage recoveries, since that is Starship and the 144 is almost entirely Falcon 9. I would like to see details on falcon 9 booster refurb, and specifically on the frequency of Merlin replacements if any.
I think he is saying, Costs for Second Stage production, (booster) refurbishment, (booster) recovery, and launch budgets.  It's that comma thing.
"Let's eat, Grandma"

'Grandma got run over by a reindeer.'

The second stage production and testing, as well as the niobium costs for the upper stage nozzles.  3 full upper stages per week is going to be a heck of a pace.

Somewhere it was mentioned that it was $5000 per KG and that's the purpose of the smaller nozzle on some flights.  That price seems like alot, but global production seems to be 78,000 tons per year, so availability shouldn't be a problem.

Another
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #32 on: 12/06/2023 10:09 pm »
What would it take for SpaceX to pursue a launch site beyond the frontiers of the US? Fr. Guyana, Japan or somewhere new. Is that too adventurous for them? (or maybe for their customers?)

I mean, it would help when the US govt shuts down to still have a functional general purpose launch site
US government shutdowns don’t impact FAA approvals for launch licenses, etc. that’s considered “essential.”

Additionally, SpaceX would likely need FAA approval to launch even from foreign launch sites. That’s how RocketLab works, at least.
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #33 on: 12/06/2023 10:13 pm »
For more F9 launches on the east coast, wouldn't they have to build/buy another drone ship for recoveries?  Also, if Vulcan and New Glenn get to launching, wouldn't they make time out gaps in F9 launches?  Maybe SpaceX needs another launch site on the east coast, Wallops Island maybe?  Boca Chica is already under scrutiny because of Starship/Superheavy launches, so probably no F9's from there.  Maybe another Texas launch site?
--They don't need more barges if they are willing to RTLS for some Starlink flights. They might need more fairing recovery ships, but those can retrieve more than one set of fairings per voyage.
--SpaceX is commissioning a second pad (SLC-6) at VSFB. It will almost certainly be ready before any other new pad can come on line, but probably not next year.
--ULA can (probably) launch at most 12 times from CCSFS in 2024: the last Delta IV heavy plus some Atlas V and Vulcan Centaur. Should be easy to work around. Number of New Glenns? Make a guess. Mine is zero.

There is possibly a constraint on the number of flights the Range can support: I have no idea.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #34 on: 12/06/2023 10:17 pm »
--ULA can (probably) launch at most 12 times from CCSFS in 2024: the last Delta IV heavy plus some Atlas V and Vulcan Centaur. Should be easy to work around. Number of New Glenns? Make a guess. Mine is zero.

Agreed: New Glenn less than or equal to zero.


I think the Eastern Range will do as much as they possibly can to not be a limitation to SpaceX's flight rate.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 10:18 pm by wannamoonbase »
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Brigantine

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #35 on: 12/06/2023 10:21 pm »
SpaceX would likely need FAA approval to launch even from foreign launch sites. That’s how RocketLab works, at least.
What does it take to get around that? License tech to a euro/japanese/indian "partner" and sell them all the hardware?

Would a F9 launched by a "partner" count towards the Falcon family launch total? Presumably it wouldn't count to the SpaceX Falcon+Starship launch total.

I guess it won't happen until 2025 regardless, so off-topic.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 10:24 pm by Brigantine »

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #36 on: 12/06/2023 10:37 pm »
What would it take for SpaceX to pursue a launch site beyond the frontiers of the US? Fr. Guyana, Japan or somewhere new. Is that too adventurous for them? (or maybe for their customers?)

I mean, it would help when the US govt shuts down to still have a functional general purpose launch site
Leaving aside the political and administrative issues, you also have logistical issues. You can (relatively) easily move a few boosters to a foreign site (Kourou is in range for an ASDS) but you need to move one new second stage per launch. You also need the whole recovery and refurbishment infrastructure.

For any new Falcon 9 infrastructure anywhere, you also need to consider the ROI. It has to pay for itself before Falcon 9 is retired for Starlink. Over half the launches are Starlink, and SpaceX will move Starlink to Starship as soon as it is feasible. Even if no other payloads move to Starship, that would reduce the number of F9 launches to fewer than there are today, which gives SpaceX time to develop Starship's non-Starlink capacity.

Online neoforce

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #37 on: 12/06/2023 11:00 pm »
LOL I remember when many of us thought 2020 would be the peak F9 year as starship/BFR would take over by then… now 2025 looks to be about 10 times as many F9 launches as 2020 had, or close to it.

here's the poll for that, but the majority view was that 2023 would be the peak year.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56586.0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #38 on: 12/07/2023 12:48 am »
LOL I remember when many of us thought 2020 would be the peak F9 year as starship/BFR would take over by then… now 2025 looks to be about 10 times as many F9 launches as 2020 had, or close to it.

here's the poll for that, but the majority view was that 2023 would be the peak year.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56586.0
That poll is from 2022, tho! Everyone seems to underestimate F9 and over-estimate starship.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 144 launch year in 2024
« Reply #39 on: 12/07/2023 06:58 am »
For more F9 launches on the east coast, wouldn't they have to build/buy another drone ship for recoveries?  Also, if Vulcan and New Glenn get to launching, wouldn't they make time out gaps in F9 launches?  Maybe SpaceX needs another launch site on the east coast, Wallops Island maybe?  Boca Chica is already under scrutiny because of Starship/Superheavy launches, so probably no F9's from there.  Maybe another Texas launch site?
--They don't need more barges if they are willing to RTLS for some Starlink flights. They might need more fairing recovery ships, but those can retrieve more than one set of fairings per voyage.
--SpaceX is commissioning a second pad (SLC-6) at VSFB. It will almost certainly be ready before any other new pad can come on line, but probably not next year.

Based on a speech by Nate Janzen mentioned in the article below, SLC-6 is expected to be ready to launch F9s in mid 2025.

https://www.noozhawk.com/spacex-launch-rate-at-vandenberg-sfb-could-soar-to-100-by-2025/

Quote
--ULA can (probably) launch at most 12 times from CCSFS in 2024: the last Delta IV heavy plus some Atlas V and Vulcan Centaur. Should be easy to work around.

If the first launch of the Vulcan-Centaur is delayed about ten days, ULA gets the engines for later fights of the Vulcan-Centaur, Amazon is capable of delivering a significant number of Kuiper satellites, and all launch campaigns end with successful launches, then it would not be impossible for ULA to launch 12 times in 2024.

I would give SpaceX a slightly better chance of having 12 launches from SLC-40 in a 30 day period.
 
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Number of New Glenns? Make a guess. Mine is zero.

Launches, my guess for New Glenn is the same. Tests are likely - including some that if BO had their way would lead to all launch preparations for operational vehicles being delayed.

Quote
There is possibly a constraint on the number of flights the Range can support: I have no idea.

I believe the Eastern Range can handle up to two flights within a certain number of hours on a surge basis - at least as long as SpaceX is doing one or both of the launches.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 06:59 am by AmigaClone »

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