Quote from: yg1968 on 12/02/2023 11:26 pmIf SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS). I agree that Starship will need to be certified for crewed flight but that will not include adding a LAS. Starships own engines already are the LAS. That is far, far safer than Shuttle, which flew 135 times with no LAS of any kind. As was tragically demonstrated by Challenger, it was not possible for Shuttle to abort the failing launch vehicle because the spacecraft itself was the launch vehicle. Not so for Starship, which can abort a failing Super Heavy launch vehicle using its own engines.With regard to Starliner's future on the other hand, I personally don't think it will continue beyond the current program. Modifying and then certifying an existing launch vehicle to carry crew is extremely expensive and time consuming. ULA is not interested in incurring that kind of effort and expense for Vulcan and Boeing is not going to want to pay for that either. I believe Starliner is done after its six contracted flights. Boeing will cut its losses and walk away from the Starliner. Remember, Boeing is not a privately owned company. It is a corporation owned by shareholders. Failure to make a handsome profit will get an entire board of directors fired. Starliner is not going to be profitable enough to meet that bar. Members of the board of directors are not guided by aspirations. They are guided by profit and loss statements. The only way I can see that happening is if NASA picks up the entire tab to make the necessary modifications and certifications for Vulcan. I might be wrong, but I just don't see that happening. It would violate everything that Commercial Crew supposedly stands for.
If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS).
Quote from: clongton on 12/03/2023 12:55 pmI agree that Starship will need to be certified for crewed flight but that will not include adding a LAS. The requirements for launch abort haven't changed much for the Commercial LEO Destinations program. Starship wouldn't currently meet them. I would expect NASA to indirectly pay for certification of the spacecrafts through the Commercial LEO Destinations provider. After all, it's NASA own requirements. Furthermore, in the long run, both Starliner and Dragon are going away. So NASA has no choice but to certify new commercial crew transportation systems.
I agree that Starship will need to be certified for crewed flight but that will not include adding a LAS.
That works for the Orbital Reef and Axiom proposals. It does not work for the Starship CLD proposal in the ref of the post you provided and that I repeat here: https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/cldp-heo-nac-11-20-23.pdfwhere on slide 13 it refers to the SAA with SpaceX as follows:QuoteSpaceX – Starship as a CLD (first with Dragonfor crew and cargo, later as crewed sortiableCLD). Related Dragon and Starlink upgrades.If this ends up being the CLD, then SpaceX will not pay to have Starliner certified as a alternate CCP provider. So for missions beyond Starliner-6, Boeing needs for Orbital Reef to succeed, probably before SpaceX gets around to flying Starship CLD if that ever happens. From my spot out here in the peanut gallery, Starship CLD looks more likely to fly than Orbital Reef.
SpaceX – Starship as a CLD (first with Dragonfor crew and cargo, later as crewed sortiableCLD). Related Dragon and Starlink upgrades.
NASA says that they would prefer to have redundant commercial crew systems (see the link below). There is 2 ways of doing that. One way is for NASA to choose two different CLD providers that have different crew transportation systems. Another way is to have two options for commercial crew for each CLD provider. If you want to maximize your chances of winning a CLD bid, you should offer two commercial crew options in you bid. If one of the options is a new commercial crew transportation systems, I would expect that the price of certification of that system to be included in that option. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2366179#msg2366179
The CLD service will include transit to and from CLD for USG astronauts. Transportation services for USG astronauts will be required to be certified under the Commercial Crew Program utilizing the same certification processes utilized for NASA commercial crew transportation.
5.4 Redundancy of Transportation ServiceSpecifying or preferring that multiple crew transportation services be available for each CLD is understood to be a significant driver on the CLD architecture and operations (i.e., number, specification, and locations of CLD ports). NASA desires to continue to encourage multiple U.S. commercial transportation providers to strengthen the competitive market in the commercial LEO economy. If NASA only procures service from one CLD provider who only has one certified transportation provider, or if NASA procures service from multiple CLD providers who select the same transportation provider, competition in the transportation market would falter.
F9 is a good technical fit, but would not provide launcher redundancy, and F9 would theoretically be retiring at about the time Starliner would need it.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 12/03/2023 01:37 pmF9 is a good technical fit, but would not provide launcher redundancy, and F9 would theoretically be retiring at about the time Starliner would need it.I have my doubts that Falcon 9 will be retired as long as there is a market demand for it.
I thought ULA had stated that the Vulcan Centaur design was intended to be crew-rated from the start ...
Will Starliner be able to send 5 astronauts into orbit?This could be interesting for private companies and for a short flight during the ISS crew rotation, if two Starliners follow each other.
How long will the ISS be in space? When will Starliner be ready to fly? Getting kind of late. ULA to be sold. SpaceX and upcoming new space companies may have crew launching and capsules ready before Starliner can fly.
Quote from: spacenut on 12/30/2023 01:14 pmHow long will the ISS be in space? When will Starliner be ready to fly? Getting kind of late. ULA to be sold. SpaceX and upcoming new space companies may have crew launching and capsules ready before Starliner can fly. The following is all public info, all documented at Wikipedia and its refs. I have no other information.Starliner CFT: April 2024, as announced by NASA.Starliner-1: Q1 2025, as announced by NASA, contingent on successful CFT.Starliners 2 through 6: Q1 of each year: 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030. Inferred: assumes alternation with Crew Dragon and average mission time of 6 months.ISS decomissioning: 2030.Note that CCP mission intervals have averaged about 5.5 months, not 6. NASA will need one or two additional Crew Dragon missions beyond Crew-14.No new crew capsule types (e.g., crewed Dream Chaser) "before Starliner flies" in April. IMO, no new capsule types certified prior to 2030, but I'm a pessimist. IMO Maybe crewed Starship, but not certified for ISS docking.Starliner is Boeing, not ULA. ULA involvement is limited to Starliner launches on Atlas V. Boeing is one of ULA's corporate parents, owning about 50%. I cannot see how they will allow the sale of ULA without getting a contractual commitment from the buyer to complete the seven Starliner launches.
IMO there will be three crewed spacecraft making their first crewed flight before 2030. Orion, Gaganyaan, and Starship - with the later likely landing with a crew on board before it launches with crew. None of those three are likely to be certified to dock to the ISS.
Quote from: AmigaClone on 12/30/2023 05:24 pmIMO there will be three crewed spacecraft making their first crewed flight before 2030. Orion, Gaganyaan, and Starship - with the later likely landing with a crew on board before it launches with crew. None of those three are likely to be certified to dock to the ISS.Well, four it you count Starliner itself, which has not yet flown with crew.But this is the Starliner thread. I was attempting to analyze things that may impact Starliner's ability to fly CCP missions and possible private missions. Orion will never be a Starliner competitor. I do not think anyone except Crew Dragon will fly any "extra" CCP missions past Crew-14 and Starliner-6. But yes, GaganYaan and crewed Starship are potential competitors to Starliner and Crew Dragon for private missions. Is there a reason you did not mention crewed Dream Chaser?
...The implicit model has always been to alternate Starliner with Crew Dragon. Back-to-back Starliners will stretch the time between consecutive Crew Dragon missions, which is a burden on SpaceX. I do not know how this affects the Crew Dragon CCP contract.
The crew will always have their own capsule at the station for emergency on the station. This is already the case with Soyuz and Dragon.
Quote from: daedalus1 on 12/31/2023 06:46 amThe crew will always have their own capsule at the station for emergency on the station. This is already the case with Soyuz and Dragon.But we have one example for a capsule at the station becoming unusable for crewed re-entry. The Russians solved this by flying another capsule. What would have happened with a double failure? We spent many happy days spamming our forums with schemes for bringing the Soyuz drew back as "cargo" in the Crew Dragon, which would have landed with a total of seven folks.
But the scenario was if an *astronaut* needed to make an emergency return. In that case, I assume the entire crew would abort their mission and return home, using the IVA suits they flew up in.