Poll

So, anyone want to guess if Blue Origin will be ready for Artemis V?

Yeah, they'll build a robust lander with time to spare.
6 (20%)
They will need many waivers for non-conforming hardware, but they'll make it.
3 (10%)
They will delay Artemis V by some noticeable time span, but eventually they will make it.
13 (43.3%)
SpaceX will have to provide hardware for Artemis V.
8 (26.7%)
Other (please specify)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 30

Voting closed: 06/01/2023 07:41 pm


Author Topic: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship  (Read 1057040 times)

Offline xvel

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2820 on: 12/05/2023 05:52 pm »
you may hate blue origin, but starship with 15+ tankers to send one starship to the moon is unfortunatelly ridiculous, those "green" activists may have an actual argument this time, that many launches of the worlds biggest rocket in short time from one place may actually cause non negligible impact on the environment
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2821 on: 12/05/2023 06:11 pm »
you may hate blue origin, but starship with 15+ tankers to send one starship to the moon is unfortunatelly ridiculous, those "green" activists may have an actual argument this time, that many launches of the worlds biggest rocket in short time from one place may actually cause non negligible impact on the environment
No, it wouldnít. Itís like an afternoon of traffic at an airport.
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Offline Brigantine

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2822 on: 12/05/2023 07:24 pm »
that many launches of the worlds biggest rocket in short time from one place

Who's suggesting they'll all launch from one place?

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2823 on: 12/05/2023 09:04 pm »
you may hate blue origin, but starship with 15+ tankers to send one starship to the moon is unfortunatelly ridiculous, those "green" activists may have an actual argument this time, that many launches of the worlds biggest rocket in short time from one place may actually cause non negligible impact on the environment
No, it wouldnít. Itís like an afternoon of traffic at an airport.

The brown cloud below SH during the last test indicates it probably emits a whole bunch of NOx, or at least a whole bunch of NO2, which isn't great.  It also puts these emissions all the way from the ground to way, way higher than any airliner flies.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2824 on: 12/05/2023 09:13 pm »
Blue Origin - mockup delivered

Says it all...

SpaceX also has an HLS mockup, actually, they've got a few of them. Mockups are an essential part of the engineering process.
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Offline OTV Booster

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2825 on: 12/05/2023 10:04 pm »
Blue Origin - mockup delivered

Says it all...
Yeah, but I bet it's a really nice, well finished mock-up.
/s
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Offline InterestedEngineer

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2826 on: 12/05/2023 11:02 pm »
Lunar LOX could be brought back to LEO for fueling to avoid extra earth launches. 

Getting space-sourced LOX would be far cheaper and easier by towing in a comet or something with enough water to extract.

Offline thespacecow

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2827 on: 12/06/2023 04:15 am »
you may hate blue origin, but starship with 15+ tankers to send one starship to the moon is unfortunatelly ridiculous, those "green" activists may have an actual argument this time, that many launches of the worlds biggest rocket in short time from one place may actually cause non negligible impact on the environment

Stop propagating the myth that it'll take 15+ tankers, the exact # of tankers needed is still being worked on, the HLS program manager said it could be "high single digits to the low double digits."

Even if it takes 15+, it is partially on NASA for requiring HLS to wait for 90 days at NRHO for Orion.

And 15 launches is nothing comparing to the hundreds needed for Starlink or thousands needed for Mars, if "activists" want to stop this, bring it on.

Offline TheRadicalModerate

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2828 on: 12/06/2023 04:33 am »
Even if it takes 15+, it is partially on NASA for requiring HLS to wait for 90 days at NRHO for Orion.

Nope, it's completely on SpaceX.  That's the beauty of firm, fixed-price contracts.  They knew what the requirements were and they bid accordingly.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2829 on: 12/06/2023 05:08 am »
you may hate blue origin, but starship with 15+ tankers to send one starship to the moon is unfortunatelly ridiculous, those "green" activists may have an actual argument this time, that many launches of the worlds biggest rocket in short time from one place may actually cause non negligible impact on the environment
No, it wouldnít. Itís like an afternoon of traffic at an airport.

The brown cloud below SH during the last test indicates it probably emits a whole bunch of NOx, or at least a whole bunch of NO2, which isn't great.  It also puts these emissions all the way from the ground to way, way higher than any airliner flies.
Itís most significant where airliners fly, and unlike airliners, Starship does much of its traveling in space (or near)

But itís not a problem. And if we think it might become a problem with millions of launches, then the solution is to just charge a fee appropriate to the emissions at least equivalent to its socialized cost. There are technical solutions.

It beats the heck out of the Shuttle or SLS SRB exhaust. That stuff is insanely bad.
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Offline thespacecow

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2830 on: 12/06/2023 05:38 am »
Even if it takes 15+, it is partially on NASA for requiring HLS to wait for 90 days at NRHO for Orion.

Nope, it's completely on SpaceX.  That's the beauty of firm, fixed-price contracts.  They knew what the requirements were and they bid accordingly.

It's on SpaceX to provide the service, that's what's on the contract, but the argument is not about whether SpaceX is capable of providing contracted service. Does the contract have a clause that says "you should use the minimal # of launches"? No, it does not. So the contract is totally irrelevant here.

It's not on SpaceX to worry about some nefarious "environmental impact" claimed by "activists", if they want the # of launches to be reduced, NASA is absolutely on the hook here due to the fact that requirement comes from them.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 06:08 am by thespacecow »

Online steveleach

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2831 on: 12/06/2023 07:39 am »
Even if it takes 15+, it is partially on NASA for requiring HLS to wait for 90 days at NRHO for Orion.

Nope, it's completely on SpaceX.  That's the beauty of firm, fixed-price contracts.  They knew what the requirements were and they bid accordingly.

It's on SpaceX to provide the service, that's what's on the contract, but the argument is not about whether SpaceX is capable of providing contracted service. Does the contract have a clause that says "you should use the minimal # of launches"? No, it does not. So the contract is totally irrelevant here.

It's not on SpaceX to worry about some nefarious "environmental impact" claimed by "activists", if they want the # of launches to be reduced, NASA is absolutely on the hook here due to the fact that requirement comes from them.
To me, the amazing thing is that the Starship system can handle almost any mission requirements by just adding more tanker flights: other previous architectures would have had to grow the booster or shrink the mission payload.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2832 on: 12/06/2023 02:38 pm »
you may hate blue origin, but starship with 15+ tankers to send one starship to the moon is unfortunatelly ridiculous, those "green" activists may have an actual argument this time, that many launches of the worlds biggest rocket in short time from one place may actually cause non negligible impact on the environment
No, it wouldn’t. It’s like an afternoon of traffic at an airport.

The brown cloud below SH during the last test indicates it probably emits a whole bunch of NOx, or at least a whole bunch of NO2, which isn't great.  It also puts these emissions all the way from the ground to way, way higher than any airliner flies.
It’s most significant where airliners fly, and unlike airliners, Starship does much of its traveling in space (or near)

But it’s not a problem. And if we think it might become a problem with millions of launches, then the solution is to just charge a fee appropriate to the emissions at least equivalent to its socialized cost. There are technical solutions.

It beats the heck out of the Shuttle or SLS SRB exhaust. That stuff is insanely bad.

Just to quantify and back up my claims here, the actual maximum estimated NOx emissions by a SS/SH launch and landing are about 3.4 tonnes of NOx per flight. That compares fairly well to the 1.3 tonnes of NOx per flight you see with a jumbo jet. So much of the energy of a launch occurs just in the first minute or two, so it is much more visible, but the actual effect per flight is pretty comparable (an Earth to Earth Starship flight, which might have an even higher passenger capacity, would be a single stage and therefore may actually have lower per-passenger NOx production than even a 747).

So yeah, even a full 15 Starship launches per lunar mission really wouldn’t have any more emissions than watching an international airport for an afternoon. The people flying in to watch Artemis I, probably around 200,000 (taking into account 747 passenger capacity and the shorter distances traveled), is on the order of 3-5 times as much NOx emissions as even the pessimistic 15 launches for Starship in Artemis 3.

The socialized cost of NOx emissions per tonne is about $18,000. A straightforward approach here is to just charge SpaceX that much money ($62,000) for it. When launch rates get high enough for that to matter on launch costs, SpaceX can take some technical approaches to solve the issue (ironically, maybe mixing in a lot of water or oxygen to reduce Isp but increase thrust for the beginning part of the first stage flight… makes it more energy efficient as well… but this is a long time in the future).
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 03:00 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline dglow

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2833 on: 12/06/2023 05:12 pm »
... but the actual effect per flight is pretty comparable (an Earth to Earth Starship flight, which might have an even higher passenger capacity, would be a single stage and therefore may actually have lower per-passenger NOx production than even a 747).
Interesting, thank you. Also speculative. Some 747s carry upwards of 500 passengers.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2834 on: 12/07/2023 12:20 am »
... but the actual effect per flight is pretty comparable (an Earth to Earth Starship flight, which might have an even higher passenger capacity, would be a single stage and therefore may actually have lower per-passenger NOx production than even a 747).
Interesting, thank you. Also speculative. Some 747s carry upwards of 500 passengers.
Starship is more comparable in volume and mass capacity to an a380 than the 747-400 in my example. A max passenger version of Starship E2E could have 600-1000 passengers. (Thatís actually one of the problems with Starship E2E: like the A380, it might be too big for most routes.)
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 12:24 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2835 on: 12/19/2023 08:04 pm »
Moderator:
Completely off-topic posts trimmed.  This included posts by forum veterans who know better.

Jumbo airliners are also off-topic.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2023 08:09 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline spacenut

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2836 on: 12/20/2023 12:44 am »
Some of the soil on the moon is 40% oxygen.  So oxygen could be extracted on the moon, liquified, and with low gravity launched to lunar orbit and back to LEO for refueling. 

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2837 on: 12/20/2023 02:11 am »
Some of the soil on the moon is 40% oxygen.  So oxygen could be extracted on the moon, liquified, and with low gravity launched to lunar orbit and back to LEO for refueling. 

Lunar oxygen production (LunOx) needs to be one of the top priorities of establishing a lunar facility. 

Use electric rail technology and you could orbit the LunOx without even using propellant. 
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2838 on: 12/20/2023 03:31 am »
I'm not sure LunOx would be even close to competitive in LEO compared to Earth-launched propellant. Propellant for on the Moon, sure, but LEO... Artemis practically ensures Starship will become a full RLV if Artemis 3 and 4 happen. The marginal launch cost could get down to $100/kg or even $10/kg IMLEO for bulk propellant.

You ever tried to make oxygen out of rocks? It's hard. Let alone on the *Moon*.
« Last Edit: 12/20/2023 03:33 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline Asteroza

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Re: Starship Artemis Contract & Lunar Starship
« Reply #2839 on: 12/20/2023 05:47 am »
I'm not sure LunOx would be even close to competitive in LEO compared to Earth-launched propellant. Propellant for on the Moon, sure, but LEO... Artemis practically ensures Starship will become a full RLV if Artemis 3 and 4 happen. The marginal launch cost could get down to $100/kg or even $10/kg IMLEO for bulk propellant.

You ever tried to make oxygen out of rocks? It's hard. Let alone on the *Moon*.

Plus if ESA or any of the VLEO startups ever gets a working ABEP thruster, running a PROFAC-style operation in VLEO to collect oxygen in orbit seems like table stakes.

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