Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6

[sdsds]

[...] What is a reasonable educated guess regarding how fast the tests can be diligently accomplished?

Although likely not how you meant the question, the answer is more organizational than technical. Boeing leadership has realized success of the Starliner program has a out-sized effect on the public's perception of Boeing's safety. So no matter how quickly the program could complete the test and analysis, the C-suite executives will be pushing for almost infinite reviews. :-(

[woods170]

Ever since Boeing's been eating all the losses they are making on Starliner. Well over $2B by now.

Which tells you everything you need to know about the prospects of Boeing "picking up the pace" or lifting an extra finger beyond inarguable contractual requirements. We might even expect another rumor campaign about them pulling out of CC completely to test the congressional waters given recent events.

Rumour campaign confirmed: https://spacenews.com/starliner-future-plans-still-in-limbo/

In an interview with Aviation Week published May 29, Kelly Ortberg, chief executive of Boeing, suggested the program was weighing down the company’s work in space.

“I think some of the challenges we’ve had with Starliner have overshadowed our space portfolio,” he said.

He indicated the future of Starliner and other Boeing space programs will depend on the outcome of budget debates in Congress in the months to come. “I think the manned space, commercial and NASA business is going to be dependent on where the budget goes and what the country wants to invest in those programs.”

[SoftwareDude]

Did the new news sound like the old news? Has there been progress? I couldn't tell.

[DanClemmensen]

Did the new news sound like the old news? Has there been progress? I couldn't tell.

Others have been commenting for some time that NASA had already actually begun purchasing the first three flights. This is the first time I recall actually hearing NASA confirm that. The NASA guys mentioned that NASA has given an ATP to Boeing for three flights.

They also provided some new details about the testing, I think. Specifically, they mentioned a new testing facility for the doghouse and they mentioned that new seals using new materials were being developed to address the helium leaks. We could have guessed or inferred these from earlier info, but this was more explicit.

[Tywin]

Question, will be a crew flight of the Starliner after the cargo flight in 2026?

[Vettedrmr]

Question, will be a crew flight of the Starliner after the cargo flight in 2026?

I want to see a good cargo flight completed before crew flight scheduling.  Otherwise we'll be in the same condition as before, with schedule vs. performance issues.

[DanClemmensen]

Question, will be a crew flight of the Starliner after the cargo flight in 2026?

I want to see a good cargo flight completed before crew flight scheduling.  Otherwise we'll be in the same condition as before, with schedule vs. performance issues.

Who pays, and how much? NASA does not need a high-cost, low performance cargo flight to ISS. They already have two fully-qualified CRS providers. NASA can (and should) require Boeing to complete another OFT at their own expense, and then complete a successful CFT, also at their own expense, because that is what Boeing contracted to do.

The problem, apparently, is that Boeing is reluctant to complete their fixed-price development commitment, so (apparently) NASA wants to find a way to keep Starliner going using some sort of creative funding scheme. In the mean time the NASA budget is being cut by 25%.

[Vettedrmr]

Who pays, and how much? NASA does not need a high-cost, low performance cargo flight to ISS.

The goal is a redundant crew delivery system.  NASA isn't going to put crew into a Starliner with its history without another test flight, Boeing is bleeding badly (although I think overall they're digging out of the corporate morass they created), and using the test flight to carry cargo, and paying Boeing some funds to provide that service, is the compromise our government has come up with to attempt to certify Starliner to carry crew so that the government's desire for dissimilar crew vehicles is satisfied.

[DanClemmensen]

Who pays, and how much? NASA does not need a high-cost, low performance cargo flight to ISS.

The goal is a redundant crew delivery system.  NASA isn't going to put crew into a Starliner with its history without another test flight, Boeing is bleeding badly (although I think overall they're digging out of the corporate morass they created), and using the test flight to carry cargo, and paying Boeing some funds to provide that service, is the compromise our government has come up with to attempt to certify Starliner to carry crew so that the government's desire for dissimilar crew vehicles is satisfied.

Our government has lots of competing goals. The current overriding goal is to reduce spending. Given this goal, I think the best approach is to look at cost-effectiveness and defund projects that are ineffective. The Starliner has not met the "desire" for dissimilar crew vehicles and cannot meet it at an effective cost.

[jongoff]

Question, will be a crew flight of the Starliner after the cargo flight in 2026?

I want to see a good cargo flight completed before crew flight scheduling.  Otherwise we'll be in the same condition as before, with schedule vs. performance issues.

Who pays, and how much? NASA does not need a high-cost, low performance cargo flight to ISS. They already have two fully-qualified CRS providers. NASA can (and should) require Boeing to complete another OFT at their own expense, and then complete a successful CFT, also at their own expense, because that is what Boeing contracted to do.

The problem, apparently, is that Boeing is reluctant to complete their fixed-price development commitment, so (apparently) NASA wants to find a way to keep Starliner going using some sort of creative funding scheme. In the mean time the NASA budget is being cut by 25%.

Or maybe offer to pay them the average price ($/kg) of the other two cargo vehicles for the demo flight. Ie don't overpay Boeing for needing to be bailed out with endless second chances.

~Jon

[DanClemmensen]

Question, will be a crew flight of the Starliner after the cargo flight in 2026?

I want to see a good cargo flight completed before crew flight scheduling.  Otherwise we'll be in the same condition as before, with schedule vs. performance issues.

Who pays, and how much? NASA does not need a high-cost, low performance cargo flight to ISS. They already have two fully-qualified CRS providers. NASA can (and should) require Boeing to complete another OFT at their own expense, and then complete a successful CFT, also at their own expense, because that is what Boeing contracted to do.

The problem, apparently, is that Boeing is reluctant to complete their fixed-price development commitment, so (apparently) NASA wants to find a way to keep Starliner going using some sort of creative funding scheme. In the mean time the NASA budget is being cut by 25%.

Or maybe offer to pay them the average price ($/kg) of the other two cargo vehicles for the demo flight. Ie don't overpay Boeing for needing to be bailed out with endless second chances.
~Jon

This penalizes the two competent providers to fund the incompetent provider, and I still don't see the contract mechanism that can be used.

Note that maintaining the Starliner program in any form still costs NASA a bunch of money even if none of the money goes to Boeomg and its subcontractors. NASA must pay salary and G&A for all of its employees that are assigned to Starliner, In the mean time, NASA is firing lots of other folks in a 25% reduction.

[Jim]

NASA must pay salary and G&A for all of its employees that are assigned to Starliner,

not that many assigned specifically to Starliner.  in the noise.  Most are assigned to work all contractors.

You won't be able to make a case to cancel Starliner.

[sdsds]

[...]
This penalizes the two competent providers to fund the incompetent provider

Yes, if seen in isolation it does exactly that. I somehow trust the occupants of the smoke-filled back rooms will covertly arrange some deal so nobody actually gets harmed. Except of course the tax payers.

[Comga]

Some snips from the GAOs annual assessment of NASA's major projects published July 1st.
The assessment wraps up in January followed by some time for comments from relevant stakeholders. Pages 71 & 72 (Sheets 80 & 81) are on the Commercial Crew Program. As of January, the certification review date was planned for Fall 2025 at which point Boeing would receive final certification of Boeing's crew transportation system and authorize the start of Post Certification Missions (PCMs) for Starliner.
Total max contract value was $4,556.1M versus the original max contract value of $4,229M.

CCP is not planning for another crewed flight test before Boeing’s certification review. The CCP program manager aid that Boeing’s next flight will be the first post certification, or service, mission. They said that after the crewed flight test, Boeing’s crew transportation system must be certified before it can conduct another flight.
NASA is planning for Boeing to complete the six service missions that NASA previously ordered, depending on the ISS lifetime. The CCP program manager said these missions may be cargo or crew missions.

CCP reported that Boeing met about 90 percent of its fight test objectives for the crewed flight test.

The program believes the most likely root cause of the thruster failures was excessive heat generation by the Starliner’s thrusters. The CCP program manager said that there are hardware and operational solutions that could be used to keep temperatures within boundaries. For example, a hardware solution that is being considered is to add thermal barriers between thrusters. An operational solution could be changing which thrusters fire and when.
The CCP program manager said that CCP’s certification process missed the thruster issue, and the program is trying to figure out why. Specifically, the program set up an investigation team to identify any lessons learned with their initial certification approaches that could have prevented the propulsion system anomalies that occurred during Boeing’s crewed flight test.

The program believes that the likeliest cause of the helium leaks was degradation of the Starliner’s helium seal due to extended oxidizer exposure. The CCP program manager said oxidizer and propellant permeates the helium seal which caused degradation and possible leakage of the seal. This issue is different than the service module valve issues that led Boeing to postpone its second uncrewed flight test in 2021.
According to the CCP program manager, the helium seal is a heritage design that has flown many times, including Boeing’s two uncrewed flight tests. They said there was a small helium leak on Boeing’s second uncrewed flight test, but that leak did not correlate to what was seen on the crewed flight test. To address the helium leak issue, Boeing and its suppliers are searching for an alternative helium seal to replace the existing seals. They are also determining what additional qualification testing would be needed for the alternative seals.

Once certified, they said NASA plans to conduct crew transportation missions to the International Space Station by alternating missions between the two providers.

(bold added)
Boeing appears to have fully captured NASA.  They get everything for nothing.
The first bolded statement does not follow logically. 
Boeing GETS certified after some more analysis, but they have to GET certified before flying the second mission.
Then they get all six mission, alternating one every eight months, (the current OMB directive) which would take about eight years (5* 16 months) starting in mid-2026.  At that point the ISS will have a lifetime of 3-4 years.
Pick nits with this, like flying once a year, but it just doesn't fit.
However, it is likely that Boeing can start charging for missions that can never be flown.
Unless they take cargo flights, for which Starliner is unsuited, away from the less expensive and proven Dragon.
And that assumes that the next flight works, despite the fact that all three flights, (plus the first stack for OFT-2) have had major failures.
They still have a likely cause for the thruster failures and the Helium leaks, and they are trying to find alternative seal materials.  They can "fix" the thermal issue by just not running the thrusters so darned hard.
Disgusting

[catdlr]

After 25 years at @NASA, flying in four different spacecraft, accumulating 464 days in space, astronaut and test pilot Butch Wilmore has retired from NASA.

Please join us in congratulating Butch on his retirement, and thanking him for his dedicated service to the agency and nation!

Read more: https://nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-astronaut-barry-butch-wilmore-retires/

[ChrisC]

And see also the dedicated thread that Tony created.

[kdhilliard]

From last month on the Boeing Starliner (CST-100) Master Update Thread:

Some snips from the GAOs annual assessment of NASA's major projects published July 1st.
...
Total max contract value was $4,556.1M versus the original max contract value of $4,229M.
...

Do we know how much of this has been paid out to date, and thus how much is still available to pay for six operational missions?

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post re: next launch?:

1881-EX-ST-2025 [Sep 26]

This STA is necessary for command, tracking, and analysis of the Boeing CST-100 Crew Capsule mission to the International Space Station.

Operation Start Date: 12/20/2025
Operation End Date: 06/16/2026

1882-EX-ST-2025

Application supporting CST-100 mission Landing and Alternate Landing Sites

[...]

Wilcox Playa, Arizona
Dugway Proving Ground, Utah
Edwards Air Force Base, California
White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico

ODAR and Tech Description are restricted.

[Rebel44]

Is there any recent update from NASA or Boeing about the status of Starliner and its plan for future tests/launches?

[Tywin]

Is there any recent update from NASA or Boeing about the status of Starliner and its plan for future tests/launches?

When the decision if the next flight is crewed or only cargo mission?