Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5  (Read 269864 times)

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #380 on: 05/11/2018 10:57 PM »
How many Block III & IV's are left for use?

3-4 Block 4's, and three of them should fly in the next 2 months.

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #381 on: 05/11/2018 10:58 PM »
How many Block III & IV's are left for use?

0 Block 3s, 3 (+ 1) Block 4s off the top of my mind.

Edit: checked 3 +1 block 4. (+1 because its fate is still unknown)
« Last Edit: 05/11/2018 11:00 PM by AbuSimbel »
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #382 on: 05/11/2018 11:00 PM »
And this is what's left out of the 24x landed stages, yes? I've been trying to get my head round all the quantities of this and that.
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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #383 on: 05/11/2018 11:15 PM »
And this is what's left out of the 24x landed stages, yes? I've been trying to get my head round all the quantities of this and that.

Flightworthy, yes. I believe four Block 4s is correct - one for SES-12, Iridium-6, (likely) Dragon 2's launch abort, and then 1045 for CRS-15. There are at least several other mothballed Block 3 and 4 cores, but it still is pretty shocking how rapidly SpaceX has slimmed down its fleet.
« Last Edit: 05/11/2018 11:17 PM by vaporcobra »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #384 on: 05/12/2018 12:30 AM »
Further discussion on reuse/fleets/etc moved to the General Falcon Discussion thread.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #385 on: 05/12/2018 11:00 PM »
Ben Cooper's list of upcoming flights has gotten a few tweaks:
Quote
The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral will launch the SES-12 communication satellite
on end of May TBD at the earliest at about 12:29am EDT. The launch window stretches to about
1:27am EDT. The next launch after that is TBD: A Falcon 9 will launch the Telstar 19 communication
satellite, from pad 40, on late June at the earliest. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the next
Dragon resupply mission to the ISS on June 28 at the earliest, at 6:03am EDT if that day. Sunrise
is 6:27am EDT. The launch window is instantaneous. The launch time gets 22-26 minutes earlier per
day. A Falcon 9 will launch Telstar 18 from pad 40 in mid July TBD. A Falcon 9 will launch the
Telkom 4 communication satellite from pad 40 for Indonesia on late July TBD. And a Falcon 9 will
launch the Es'hail-2 communication satellite in mid-August TBD

It looks like some slight slips of the next couple flights could happen but SpaceX could still be completely caught up on their East Coast F9 manifest by the end of the third quarter, which would be a huge accomplishment considering what their manifest looked like at the beginning of 2017.
« Last Edit: 05/12/2018 11:00 PM by gongora »

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #386 on: 05/14/2018 11:21 AM »
Cross-posting:
Here is the clarification of that 300 launches quote:
Quote
SpaceX will prob build 30 to 40 rocket cores for ~300 missions over 5 years. Then BFR takes over & Falcon retires. Goal of BFR is to enable anyone to move to moon, Mars & eventually outer planets.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/995462943079723008

Lots of wiggle room there for BFR arriving a bit late -- something like a factor of 10 more flights available from 'the fleet' than required.  300 flights in five years... hhhmmmmmm.  Must include the constellation finally.

Is this sufficient documentation to begin listing constellation flights?
« Last Edit: 05/14/2018 11:25 AM by AncientU »
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Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #387 on: 05/14/2018 12:59 PM »
Here is an updated FPIP.
One of "pale-green box" with unclear flights is gone, thanks to Ben Cooper :)
Of course, there is still a lot of guesswork in the chart, especially for its right part,
but -
it is the FIRST time when I have *some references on scheduling* for FULL THREE months in advance AND for nine launches in the row.
Well, last year the picture was very different ;)
Go SpaceX !

PS: Also, I marked the three flights with block 4 boosters (green arrows).
One more block 4 core is available (B1042; Oct 30, 2017; KoreaSat 5A).


Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #388 on: 05/14/2018 01:32 PM »
Is this sufficient documentation to begin listing constellation flights?

No

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #389 on: 05/14/2018 01:46 PM »
Anyone else expect a schedule lag as the Block 4's are consumed and the Block 5's ramp up?

I think they'll launch more this year than last year, but that they could have a slow down in Jul, Aug, Sep as the Block 5's fly and make their second and third flights as they thoroughly learn how to fly their new toys.
Needing a copy of 'Tales of Suspense #39'

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #390 on: 05/14/2018 02:09 PM »
Here is an updated FPIP.

I'm struck by the lack of commercial GTO satellites expected to fly in the last quarter of the year.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #391 on: 05/14/2018 03:19 PM »
Anyone else expect a schedule lag as the Block 4's are consumed and the Block 5's ramp up?

I think they'll launch more this year than last year, but that they could have a slow down in Jul, Aug, Sep as the Block 5's fly and make their second and third flights as they thoroughly learn how to fly their new toys.

I created a place for further discussion about this: [Poll] How Many New Block 5 Boosters Will Fly In 2018?

I'm struck by the lack of commercial GTO satellites expected to fly in the last quarter of the year.

Well, some could always slip...  The GTO launch rate has to start slowing down next year since the order rate of new GTO sats has dropped over the past couple years, and SpaceX isn't going to get all of the launches.

For those who haven't noticed already, Iridum 6 slipped at least two days to the 21st, and Iridium flights will now finish by the end of the third quarter.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #392 on: 05/22/2018 07:03 PM »
Finally realistic launch numbers: 24-28 this year, ~18 in 2019.  ~14 first stages built this year, ~30 second stages.

Discussion of this should probably be in other threads, just copying it here for those who have been wondering why there aren't 40 payloads listed for 2019.

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #393 on: 05/24/2018 01:48 PM »
Quote
ICEYE is aiming for a total of 9 upcoming satellite launches by the end of 2019 and is actively seeking out launch operators to continue the company’s rapid acceleration towards the future.
One prototype (#2) is co-manifested on F-9.  Others: #1 launched on PSLV. #3 scheduled for Electron.
Not an award, but a distinct possibility due to 2019 launches.
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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #394 on: 05/28/2018 07:25 PM »
Quote
Hello @IridiumBoss! Is there already any NET date for the Iridium-7 launch?

https://twitter.com/elthiryel/status/1001120220625408001

Quote
No, haven't provided a specific date , but iI'm expecting it in about mid to late July.

https://twitter.com/iridiumboss/status/1001144325521231872

Edit: saw this on twitter & posted before I saw post here
« Last Edit: 05/28/2018 07:27 PM by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #395 on: 06/07/2018 11:40 PM »
Updated FPIP

Offline eriblo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #396 on: 06/08/2018 12:51 PM »
Attended a presentation by Daniel De Lisle (CSA) on June 6 where he stated that the current "focus date" for RADARSAT Constellation (RCM) launch is November 7, one week into the contracted one month launch period. Should be able to at least say NET November.

EDIT: Added the mission for clarity ;)
« Last Edit: 06/08/2018 01:04 PM by eriblo »

Offline input~2

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #397 on: 06/22/2018 02:49 PM »
Saocom-1A announced for a launch on September 13, 2018 according to
https://mundo.sputniknews.com/radio_big_bang/201806221079787496-satelite-catastrofes-prevencion/
« Last Edit: 06/22/2018 02:51 PM by input~2 »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #398 on: 06/22/2018 03:09 PM »
Saocom-1A announced for a launch on September 13, 2018 according to
https://mundo.sputniknews.com/radio_big_bang/201806221079787496-satelite-catastrofes-prevencion/

That would be the day after a scheduled ULA launch, so I wouldn't bet on it launching that exact day, but it seems to be the right timeframe.  The SpaceX launch dates at Vandenberg tend to move around a bit.  There was also a recent mention of it launching in the last quarter of the year: https://energia.rionegro.gov.ar/index.php?contID=45225

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates and Discussion Thread 5
« Reply #399 on: 06/22/2018 08:57 PM »
Is there sufficient info on timelines and launch quantities as well as which vehicle to add the Starlink launches as a TBD holder to the manifest?

My current estimate is
TBD (2019-2024) F9   [115 launches]
This covers only first half of constellation needed to be deployed by Apr 2024 (2200 sats).
If FH is used the number of launches is a unknown because of many factors related to the quantity of sats per launch.

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