Author Topic: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher  (Read 738681 times)

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #760 on: 01/14/2017 02:34 pm »
Ringside, sounds you know more than Moon Express, Planet labs, NASA and Lockheed Martin. All of these companies have a vested interest in RL flying soon, but what do they know about space flight.

Offline ringsider

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #761 on: 01/14/2017 03:02 pm »
Ringside, sounds you know more than Moon Express, Planet labs, NASA and Lockheed Martin. All of these companies have a vested interest in RL flying soon, but what do they know about space flight.
I don't see how that is relevant, although I probably know more about launcher development than Moon Express and Planet... LM is a shareholder and has a literal vested interest, but those two are just customers with best effort launch contracts. In any case what is relevant is just understanding the complexity of the task.

I really hope they fly, I think they are far and away the best of the bunch, but the bald facts are that the last few inches of launcher development are the biggest sweat. Getting it to the pad is one thing, making it fly where it is supposed to fly is quite another. The history of launchers is littered with underestimated launch dates and failed early attempts.

Just look at RL's dates. Last January it was "summer". Then it was "December". That's 6 months. Now we are another month along and I don't think they have given a new date - those quoted above came from NASA and Moon Express with caveats like "current schedule" and "if all goes to plan".

Reality is that it almost never goes to plan. They just got back from the NZ equivalent of summer holidays, it will take a month to get back up to speed and then probably two months to get ready. There are licenses and inspections, the regulator wants additional proof on 23 items as well as process changes, which takes 4 weeks. Then it's southern Autumn. Then something goes wrong, who knows what - a leak, a software bug, an engine glitch, a miscalculation. It's the first time they tried this, literally 1000 things could go wrong.  Then someone crucial gets sick or leaves. Then it's Easter school holidays. Then it's winter. Something else goes wrong, maybe something blows up during testing, maybe they discovered cracks in some vital part, maybe some revision creates an issue. That needs 6-8 weeks to understand what happened and fix it. Now it's another six months delay, it's winter and the weather sucks. The worst storm in history hits them, or an earthquake, causing some minor but time-consuming damage. Licenses are delayed again over some CYA paperpushing BS. There's an election and with the new government things slow down. The GNC team discover an issue with the gyro calibration - it's an easy fix but needs re-approval. Rabbits chew through some links between control and the pad. They announce another delay until the weather is better. One of the payloads has a delay. And so on.

Then they finally light it up and it blows on the pad. Worst possible outcome. Minimum 6 months to figure it out, make repairs and try again. Payloads get nervous. Somebody gets fired. And round and aroudn it goes.

I'm just being realistic. This is how things go IRL. It's not easy.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2017 03:34 pm by ringsider »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #762 on: 01/14/2017 11:07 pm »
Oh please, Trevor. I suspect Planet holds no illusions about how hard launch vehicle development is and the inherent risks.

"Oh, well you're skeptical of their hoped for launch rate?? How dare you! You must think you're smarter than their customers!!!" ...is the same kind of nonsense that people do with SpaceX.

I'm an huge SpaceX fan, but I've been following this field for a few years, and it's quite obvious that things tend not to go as well as people hope, and I try to base my expectations of SpaceX's operations accordingly. The same applies to RL (although I'm not much of a fan because they're not pursuing reuse). And I can assure you that their customers are fully aware of this. At least, a company like Planet or especially NASA, who has launched multiple payloads now, most certainly is.

Just because there's no way RL is launching 10 times in 2017 doesn't mean it's dumb to sign up as an early customer.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #763 on: 01/15/2017 03:44 am »
I'm not quite as pessimistic as ringsider (I think they'll get at least one successful flight off before the end of 2017), but I do agree that getting to 10 flights their first year seems to be very optimistic, when SpaceX still hasn't hit that rate even though they've been flying vehicles for 8yrs now. RL isn't pushing the technology as hard, and seems less likely to be constantly iterating on the design once it's in operations, but banking on them being able to fly several successful missions by year end just seems naively optimistic.

~Jon

Offline savuporo

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #764 on: 01/15/2017 05:51 am »
..getting to 10 flights their first year seems to be very optimistic, when SpaceX still hasn't hit that rate..
Much smaller vehicle, components and operations, though. SpaceX never even tried to prepare F1 for that kind of rate.

Electron makes no sense if its not prepared for high production, integration and launch rate from get go. That includes debugging launches.
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Offline TrevorMonty

Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #765 on: 01/15/2017 08:30 am »
. It was Ringsider 2019 for first orbital launch at prompted my reply. 

Given Moon Express place in queue I'd be surprised if they launch in 2017.


Offline ringsider

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #766 on: 01/15/2017 08:43 am »
. It was Ringsider 2019 for first orbital launch at prompted my reply. 

Given Moon Express place in queue I'd be surprised if they launch in 2017.
Successful launch in 2019. That's not unrealistic for a new launcher.

I think they will fire something this year, but successfully achieve orbit? That is a big step.

And that's why I said that job advert I posted a few replies ago for a PR Manager had some interesting language, about managing expectations....

"Crisis management, contingency planning and expectation management"

Even if they get it away, I bet all the language in advance will be "cautiously optimistic but of course it is the first time so we also anticipate some issues. It's not uncommon to have some failures in the early days, and we have taken that into account in our test flight planning." and so on.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2017 08:48 am by ringsider »

Offline Outer Space

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #767 on: 01/22/2017 05:49 am »
Rocket Lab USA has planned to move almost the entire operation home to the US. - Wonder if it's to do wit Trump?

Offline savuporo

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #768 on: 01/22/2017 05:54 am »
Rocket Lab USA has planned to move almost the entire operation home to the US...
Source ? I think that would not be possible, they have a large development team in Auckland

Meanwhile, some tidbits but not much new:
http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/2628964-135/almost-ready-to-rocket-at-mahia
Quote
THE COUNTDOWN is on for the Rocket Lab test phase, with three rockets close to completion.

Two public meetings were held at Mahia over the weekend to keep local people up to date with the launch process. Rocket Lab operations vice-president Shane Fleming said the three test rockets were close to completion.
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Offline CameronD

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #769 on: 01/22/2017 11:14 pm »
Rocket Lab USA has planned to move almost the entire operation home to the US. - Wonder if it's to do wit Trump?

Ha!  I'd have thought Trump was a very good reason to move the entire operation home to New Zealand. :)

« Last Edit: 01/22/2017 11:17 pm by CameronD »
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline CameronD

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #770 on: 01/22/2017 11:17 pm »
Meanwhile, some tidbits but not much new:
http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/2628964-135/almost-ready-to-rocket-at-mahia
Quote
THE COUNTDOWN is on for the Rocket Lab test phase, with three rockets close to completion.

Two public meetings were held at Mahia over the weekend to keep local people up to date with the launch process. Rocket Lab operations vice-president Shane Fleming said the three test rockets were close to completion.

Three test rockets??  Interesting.  That's the same number we've seen in build.  If that's the case it doesn't seem likely there'll be any customer's payloads going upwards for a few months yet. :(

« Last Edit: 01/23/2017 12:53 am by CameronD »
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #771 on: 01/23/2017 01:21 am »
It's pretty common to launch some payloads even on test launches. At a very steep discount as it's no better than, say 50% odds they'll succeed.
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline CameronD

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #772 on: 01/23/2017 01:39 am »
It's pretty common to launch some payloads even on test launches. At a very steep discount as it's no better than, say 50% odds they'll succeed.

If that's the case, perhaps said payload should have designed-in Plan B capability for "exploration of the depths of the Pacific Ocean".. or at least Plan C "atmospheric sampling" on the way down.  :P

With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline Katana

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #773 on: 01/23/2017 03:06 am »
It's pretty common to launch some payloads even on test launches. At a very steep discount as it's no better than, say 50% odds they'll succeed.

If that's the case, perhaps said payload should have designed-in Plan B capability for "exploration of the depths of the Pacific Ocean".. or at least Plan C "atmospheric sampling" on the way down.  :P
If payloads could be duplicated at low cost, some loss in launch could be accepted .

In a Cubesat program, the major cost is usually development (including salary of team), not manufacture.

Offline savuporo

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #774 on: 01/23/2017 03:34 am »
In a Cubesat program, the major cost is usually development (including salary of team), not manufacture.
Depends on the cubesat. You can burn over $100K on off the shelf parts easy
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Offline Outer Space

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #775 on: 01/23/2017 06:39 am »
Rocket Lab USA has planned to move almost the entire operation home to the US. - Wonder if it's to do wit Trump?

Ha!  I'd have thought Trump was a very good reason to move the entire operation home to New Zealand. :)

"...home to New Zealand"? Isn't it an US company? 8)
And as some insider in a leading position assured, the company will move to the homeland.

Offline Kryten

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #776 on: 01/23/2017 02:44 pm »
Rocket Lab USA has planned to move almost the entire operation home to the US. - Wonder if it's to do wit Trump?

Ha!  I'd have thought Trump was a very good reason to move the entire operation home to New Zealand. :)

"...home to New Zealand"? Isn't it an US company? 8)
And as some insider in a leading position assured, the company will move to the homeland.
RocketLab was founded in New Zealand by New Zealanders, NZ is 'the homeland'. They only switched to being formally a US company a few years ago, and only to reduce the regulatory hurdles.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #777 on: 01/23/2017 03:27 pm »
They do plan to  manufacture and launch in USA at some stage. This would be in addition to NZ operation.

 I think there is some requirements for domestic manufacturing for government launches.

Bob Richard from Moon Express said March for 1st launch. From webinar comment a couple days ago.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #778 on: 01/23/2017 05:07 pm »
It's pretty common to launch some payloads even on test launches. At a very steep discount as it's no better than, say 50% odds they'll succeed.

If that's the case, perhaps said payload should have designed-in Plan B capability for "exploration of the depths of the Pacific Ocean".. or at least Plan C "atmospheric sampling" on the way down.  :P



That would be a very kerbal thing to do.


Offline CameronD

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Re: RocketLab Electron Smallsat Launcher
« Reply #779 on: 01/23/2017 09:58 pm »
They do plan to  manufacture and launch in USA at some stage. This would be in addition to NZ operation.

 I think there is some requirements for domestic manufacturing for government launches.

I'll add that it's no secret that Peter Beck (a Kiwi) has spent most of the last few years travelling between NZ and the USA... and I don't think that was just for holidays or to build up frequent-flyer miles.

And if I know anything at all about Kiwis it's that, even if the name on the door has a "USA" in it to keep the locals happy, they would never consider themselves American.

« Last Edit: 01/23/2017 10:00 pm by CameronD »
With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

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