Author Topic: Russian Space Budgets Slashed -- Implications for Joint Operations  (Read 34801 times)

Offline AncientU

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In a disturbing article, the Russian Space Agency received yet another budget cut to $22.5B over the next ten years

Quote
On Monday, Igor Komarov, the director of Roscosmos — Russia's version of NASA — announced that the space agency will receive a total of $22.5 billion dollars in government funding over the next 10 years.

That might sound like a lot, but it's close to how much NASA gets from the federal government each year. In 2015, alone, NASA received approximately $18 billion, and is projected to get a similar amount each year through 2019.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-government-already-paying-space-195035280.html

What are the implications for their program and for joint operations such as ISS?  Is this funding profile take them out of their key role in World spaceflight?

Mods: Not sure if this is a policy topic... move as needed.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Well the Russians are certainly not going to the Moon on this size budget, and most likely they aren't fielding any new space vehicles either.

I think, and hope, that they continue their partnership on the ISS, and for now that seems like the easiest way for them to continue to show off their space capabilities.  No doubt they have the same political inertia challenges that we do with new programs, so supporting a highly visible (and very positive) existing program like the ISS is more likely to continue being funded than any new program is to get full startup funding.

It's a shame really, that the wonderful capabilities of the Russian space sector can't be fully leveraged because of the mismanagement of the country as a whole.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline gbaikie

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In a disturbing article, the Russian Space Agency received yet another budget cut to $22.5B over the next ten years

Quote
On Monday, Igor Komarov, the director of Roscosmos — Russia's version of NASA — announced that the space agency will receive a total of $22.5 billion dollars in government funding over the next 10 years.

That might sound like a lot, but it's close to how much NASA gets from the federal government each year. In 2015, alone, NASA received approximately $18 billion, and is projected to get a similar amount each year through 2019.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-government-already-paying-space-195035280.html

What are the implications for their program and for joint operations such as ISS?  Is this funding profile take them out of their key role in World spaceflight?

Mods: Not sure if this is a policy topic... move as needed.

A question would be how many rubles did russian space agency get per year in the last 10 years?
The articles said:
"Moreover, the latest Roscosmos budget is half the amount that the decade-long planning document called the Federal Space Program (FSP) 2016-2025 laid out earlier this year."
Which meaningless, other than a space agency didn't get as much money as it wanted. Or all space agencies tend to ask for more money for their various future unrealistic plans.

Another aspect is the ruble has been crashing- which mostly blamed on low oil prices, but Russia war mongering and massive corruption in general isn't helping the ruble, either,.

Lastly what other space agency except NASA gets more than 2.25 billion per year?
« Last Edit: 12/07/2015 02:57 am by gbaikie »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Lastly what other space agency except NASA gets more than 2.25 billion per year?

ESA's budget this year is about $4.8B (€4.4B).

Offline gbaikie

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Lastly what other space agency except NASA gets more than 2.25 billion per year?

ESA's budget this year is about $4.8B (€4.4B).

This appear cumulative total of all European space agencies budgets, plus commercial satellites, GPS, or basically all European dollars spent on all it's governmental space related activity.
So any space military related activity, I would I am guessing, is also included.

Whereas with US there separate funding for military space activity, ie:
"Figures provided to CRS show a total (classified and unclassified) DOD space budget of $19.4 billion for FY2003, $20 billion for FY2004, $19.8 billion for FY2005, and a request of $22.5 billion for FY2006.  "
https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/space/RL33601.pdf

And obviously Russia launches many military assets into space- not sure how that's accounted for in terms of this Russian Space Budgets.
But if one considers the GDP of nations in involved, Russia at about 2 billion per year is spending more of it's dollars on Space. Or Germany has about same GDP as Russia, Germany about 800 million for it's space agency budget. Japan is spending about 2 billion per year, but has much higher GDP than Russia.
 
« Last Edit: 12/07/2015 08:29 am by gbaikie »

Offline woods170

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ESA's budget this year is about $4.8B (€4.4B).

This appear cumulative total of all European space agencies budgets, plus commercial satellites, GPS, or basically all European dollars spent on all it's governmental space related activity.
So any space military related activity, I would I am guessing, is also included.
And that guess is completely wrong.
The ESA budget does NOT include the funds spent by it's member states on military space applications. ESA is strictly civilian, much like NASA.
Also, the ESA budget does NOT include the funds spent by it's member states on strictly national space applications.
For example: Germany is one of the biggest contributors of ESA. However, Germany also spends quite a bit of money on space applications outside the framework of ESA, on national programs. The same applies to France.
Therefore, the ESA budget is the cumulation of those funds provided by ESA member states for ESA activities.
But Europe actually spends quite a bit more than just the ESA budget on space activities.



Offline gbaikie

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ESA's budget this year is about $4.8B (€4.4B).

This appear cumulative total of all European space agencies budgets, plus commercial satellites, GPS, or basically all European dollars spent on all it's governmental space related activity.
So any space military related activity, I would I am guessing, is also included.
And that guess is completely wrong.
The ESA budget does NOT include the funds spent by it's member states on military space applications. ESA is strictly civilian, much like NASA.
Also, the ESA budget does NOT include the funds spent by it's member states on strictly national space applications.
For example: Germany is one of the biggest contributors of ESA. However, Germany also spends quite a bit of money on space applications outside the framework of ESA, on national programs. The same applies to France.
Therefore, the ESA budget is the cumulation of those funds provided by ESA member states for ESA activities.
But Europe actually spends quite a bit more than just the ESA budget on space activities.
Thanks.
What about the Russian budget of $22.5 billion over ten year, is that just civilian space exploration [ISS or going to the Moon or whatever] or does include everything- civilian satellites, launch sites, tracking, rocket launch development, military satellites, etc?
It seems this budget cut, the post topic, is budget that US does not even have, or it would be as if NASA had budget for lunar exploration program for the next 10 years, and then it was later cut.
So, is this about a cut in a fantasy program?
« Last Edit: 12/07/2015 06:39 pm by gbaikie »

Offline AncientU

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This from last April:
Quote
Russia's economic crisis is cutting into the heart of the country's national pride: its space program.

The Russian Federal Space Agency's budget will be slashed by 35% to 2 trillion rubles ($37 billion) over the next decade, the agency announced.

Quote
The cuts forced Roscosmos to abandon several high profile projects, including developing extra-heavy rockets that can reach beyond the Earth's orbit,...

http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/27/news/economy/russia-space-crisis-cosmodrome/index.html

And another article had the extra-heavy rocket cut from $11.5b to $1.15B -- 90%...

The cut by 35% (from $57B to $37B) is being followed by this cut to $22.5B. 
Sounds like real meat is getting the knife.

Note: This is comparable to NASA getting cut from $18B to $7.1B.
« Last Edit: 12/08/2015 12:47 am by AncientU »
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Offline AncientU

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Another launch failure... this time a military payload.
If, as some have suggested, these recent launch failures are due to under-funding and poor workmanship, then the failure rate is due to only rise with the latest cuts.
"If we shared everything [we are working on] people would think we are insane!"
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Offline sghill

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Question for those with more knowledge than I on this matter.

Could the US even operate the Russian segments to keep the ISS going if there was a willingness on the Russian side to sell their assets to the US?  I'm thinking the Russian side mission control and communications aspects of maintaining ISS more than the orbiting hardware.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Question for those with more knowledge than I on this matter.

Could the US even operate the Russian segments to keep the ISS going if there was a willingness on the Russian side to sell their assets to the US?  I'm thinking the Russian side mission control and communications aspects of maintaining ISS more than the orbiting hardware.

I don't know, but I would guess that it would be like asking the Russians to take over our operations - so much institutional and deep knowledge required, not to mention the spare parts.

The better question, and I know this has been discussed in previous threads, is whether it's worth disconnecting from the Russian side with the operational life the ISS has left.  I suspect not, so the life of the ISS may be tied to how long the Russians can afford to keep participating in the ISS.

All the more reason to fully fund Commercial Crew...
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline woods170

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I'm getting reports from some of my contacts. It looks like the additional Russian ISS modules, such as MLM (Nauka), node module and NEM have the axe hovering over them. They have been earmarked for possible cancellation depending on how things get re-prioritized under the new budget regime.

Offline AncientU

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The other shoe will be early withdrawal from ISS -- previously threatened.

Note: Three U.S. or allied passengers riding up on Soyuz per year equates to 10% of annual budget; or six RD-180s... The passengers dry up in 2017/18 and engines are encountering roadblocks. 

Value of cash could only be increasing...
« Last Edit: 12/09/2015 12:14 pm by AncientU »
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Offline robertross

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I'm getting reports from some of my contacts. It looks like the additional Russian ISS modules, such as MLM (Nauka), node module and NEM have the axe hovering over them. They have been earmarked for possible cancellation depending on how things get re-prioritized under the new budget regime.

Amazing how dependent the world economies have become to the price of oil. So many now produce it and have created budgets around it. Canada is suffering greatly because of it, with a hint at possible future negative interest rates (last resort option) to get people to spend.

Offline NovaSilisko

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So it sounds to me like this basically means the end of Russia's lunar and planetary exploration short of ExoMars, with most of the budget going into Earth-centric operations like the ISS. No Venera revival, no Luna revival, no Phobos-Grunt reflight...

And with the suggestion the additional ISS modules might be cut, there goes OPSEK too.
« Last Edit: 12/09/2015 07:49 pm by NovaSilisko »

Offline clongton

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And that is a real shame, especially considering how much the Russian people sacrificed during and after the collapse of the Soviet Union to keep their space program up and running. It was the one bright star in their lives for the longest time.
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Offline Blackstar

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So it sounds to me like this basically means the end of Russia's lunar and planetary exploration short of ExoMars, with most of the budget going into Earth-centric operations like the ISS. No Venera revival, no Luna revival, no Phobos-Grunt reflight...

And with the suggestion the additional ISS modules might be cut, there goes OPSEK too.

There is an ESA component for one of their lunar landers. That might survive. In short, unless they are getting foreign money for part of their project, it is unlikely to happen.


Offline Blackstar

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The other shoe will be early withdrawal from ISS -- previously threatened.

I would not go there yet. Without their participation in ISS what do they have left? They have talked about going it alone with a "Russia only" space station, but that would cost them more than what they currently spend on ISS. In other words, if they cannot afford to participate in ISS, they cannot afford their own space station. And if they cannot do either of those, does that mean they give up on human spaceflight entirely?

Look at the larger political context. Putin is trying to restore the power and reputation of the Russian state. Does withdrawing from human spaceflight contribute to that goal?

Offline rcoppola

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Agreed. Also, the PTK (Soyuz replacement) is supposed to start launching crew in 2024. I'm assuming they'd like to have an actual destination to launch to. (unless that program gets cut and/or delayed as well)
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Offline Rocket Science

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Well, so much for "the age of Soyuz"....
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