I doubt, because I don't think shuttle(s) can fly 15+ flights per year -- let alone the growing size of astronaut corp and the facts that many decided to quit after 2~3 flights to pursue personal interests
If Challenger or something like it hadn't happened when it did, I believe that Shuttle would have flown more than a dozen missions per year and probably more than 15 in some years. Planning at the time projected up to 24 per year. Remember that Shuttle would have been flying from three pads (one at Vandenberg AFB), and that Delta and Atlas Centaur were both being phased out. Challenger was the 11th Shuttle flight in one year and four days - and that was a period that saw one or two missions rolled out to the pad before being cancelled.
Vandenberg's SLC-6 was going to be shut down no matter what. USAF wanted off of shuttle by 1985 and Challenger gave them the excuse. That decision would have been delayed by a couple of years, but not much more than that.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 02/18/2009 07:03 pmIf Challenger or something like it hadn't happened when it did, I believe that Shuttle would have flown more than a dozen missions per year and probably more than 15 in some years. Planning at the time projected up to 24 per year. Remember that Shuttle would have been flying from three pads (one at Vandenberg AFB), and that Delta and Atlas Centaur were both being phased out. Challenger was the 11th Shuttle flight in one year and four days - and that was a period that saw one or two missions rolled out to the pad before being cancelled. Doubtful. I believe that I heard (i.e. I don't have a source) that they were killing themselves when they achieved the maximum rate of 9 launches in a 12-month period and that they would have maxed out at about 10 in a year--and this was not a sustainable rate. The only way to get a higher rate would have been to build a fifth orbiter and to increase staff and facilities. That might have been contained in NASA documents ca 1985--i.e. did anybody study what it would take to get the launch rate above 8 per year?Vandenberg's SLC-6 was going to be shut down no matter what. USAF wanted off of shuttle by 1985 and Challenger gave them the excuse. That decision would have been delayed by a couple of years, but not much more than that.Nobody has really researched this aspect, but it would be worthwhile for someone to file some FOIA requests to USAF for documents related to shuttle for the 1985-86 period, including discussions of SLC-6. A lot of that stuff is going to be impossible to get because NRO was the primary driver and they refuse to acknowledge any shuttle involvement (that may change under Obama). However, there were plenty of white/unclassified shuttle payloads, so there was obviously discussion of shuttle schedules discussed in the USAF.
Secretary of the Air Force Pete Aldridge wanted off of the shuttle. I think the speed in which they shut down SLC-6--after its problems had been solved--is testament to how badly he wanted out of that. Maybe it merely gave him the ammunition he required.That said, this whole issue is poorly documented. Nobody has interviewed the principles or gone after the documents. Nobody has even mapped out who was who and held what position.
Quote from: Blackstar on 02/19/2009 04:11 amSecretary of the Air Force Pete Aldridge wanted off of the shuttle. I think the speed in which they shut down SLC-6--after its problems had been solved--is testament to how badly he wanted out of that. Maybe it merely gave him the ammunition he required.That said, this whole issue is poorly documented. Nobody has interviewed the principles or gone after the documents. Nobody has even mapped out who was who and held what position.Aldridge didn't become Secretary of the Air Force until April 1986 - after 51L. He wasn't Secretary when the Complementary ELV (eventually Titan IV) decisions were made. That would have been Verne Orr.Heck, prior to 51L, Aldridge was training to be a payload specialist on the first Vandenberg Shuttle mission!
Secretary of the Air Force Pete Aldridge wanted off of the shuttle.
Quote from: Blackstar on 02/19/2009 04:11 amSecretary of the Air Force Pete Aldridge wanted off of the shuttle. So did Ralph Jacobson
One other note: a few years ago I was in Lompoc researching VAFB and SLC-6 (the VAFB historian is not a helpful person and therefore not worth talking to). The Lompoc Record had pretty much nothing on SLC-6 leading up to the shutdown. You'd think that nothing was wrong and then BAM, SLC-6 is mothballed. Considering the effect that it had on the local economy, it's amazing that the local newspaper seemed to be pretty clueless about the whole thing.My guess is that if documents exist, they are at the Pentagon level, and a lot of them would be classified due to the NRO connection. It is NRO policy to refuse to comment at all on shuttle involvement, which is rather nutty considering that they have previously acknowledged involvement in the shuttle.
I've never seen any drawings of GPS in a shuttle bay. I think they were planning for three per launch. Is that correct?Of course, the GPS schedule was also rather slippery. I think that the launches kept getting put off, not always because of Challenger, but because USAF was squirrely about paying for the thing. Remember that GPS was not declared fully operational until a few years _after_ the Persian Gulf War. Had USAF fully funded it, GPS probably would have been operational in the 1980s.
I read in an article, that if the Challenger disaster did not happen in '86, many shuttle astronauts had the opportunity to fly cca. 7, 8, 9 or 10 shuttle missions during their NASA career. What could have been with the number of flight assignments per one astronaut if Challenger did not happen?
SLC 6 would have been used, no doubt about it, had 51L not happened.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 02/19/2009 04:11 amSLC 6 would have been used, no doubt about it, had 51L not happened.Twice. The first AND the last time.If I recall right it was so poorly constructed that it would have been torn to pieces by the first shuttle launch from there, most likely destroying the shuttle itself too.