Author Topic: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread - 2010 attempts  (Read 87590 times)

Offline mceddiemac

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #40 on: 10/31/2010 01:34 pm »
The NWS still says just 20% chance of rain on Wed so they are pretty much full go. I disagree and think it will be tough to get off until Saturday unless we get a nice break.

Hey Rob, given what you see in the models do you have a % figure in mind for Wednesday and Thursday. 

Offline toram

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #41 on: 10/31/2010 03:36 pm »
The NWS still says just 20% chance of rain on Wed so they are pretty much full go. I disagree and think it will be tough to get off until Saturday unless we get a nice break.

Just a couple comments.
1)  The 20% chance of rain refers to the NWS MLB forecast, not NWS SMG's.  The probability of precipitation in MLB's public products has a specific definition and time period associated with it.
2)  The probability of weather prohibiting launch issued by the 45th covers both the Launch Commit Criteria and the Flight Rules.  The launch probability is discussed between the 45th and SMG.  It only applies to the launch window.

Sometimes it's difficult to make them all appear to be consistent.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #42 on: 10/31/2010 04:23 pm »
1)  The 20% chance of rain refers to the NWS MLB forecast, not NWS SMG's.  The probability of precipitation in MLB's public products has a specific definition and time period associated with it.

Thanks for clarifying - I always have referred to NWS as the NWS MLB and SMG for NWS SMG in these threads over the years, but will make sure to clear it up in the future.

At T-0 on Wednesday, the NWS MLB says there is only a 21% chance of a shower with no threat at all of lightning. The "normal" chance of showers on an early November day is around 25-30%, so they are saying less than a typical day's threat -- and that is the part I disagree with.

Offline Gemini63

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #43 on: 10/31/2010 07:02 pm »
The NWS still says just 20% chance of rain on Wed so they are pretty much full go. I disagree and think it will be tough to get off until Saturday unless we get a nice break.

Why?

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #44 on: 10/31/2010 07:08 pm »
NWS MLB has flipped over into the threatening category now, going from likely dry to probably wet with 40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Again this isn't going to be an all-day event, but I'd sitting at only 50/50 both days. Conditions start to improve by Friday.

Offline Gemini63

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #45 on: 10/31/2010 07:12 pm »
NWS MLB has flipped over into the threatening category now, going from likely dry to probably wet with 40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Again this isn't going to be an all-day event, but I'd sitting at only 50/50 both days. Conditions start to improve by Friday.

And that decision could be made on the spur of the moment, correct?

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #46 on: 10/31/2010 07:30 pm »
NWS MLB has flipped over into the threatening category now, going from likely dry to probably wet with 40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Again this isn't going to be an all-day event, but I'd sitting at only 50/50 both days. Conditions start to improve by Friday.

And that decision could be made on the spur of the moment, correct?
If you mean impulsively, no.  Generally they'll fuel the vehicle, the crew will get on board, and the launch team will take the countdown down to the last hold and everyone will be ready to go.  As Wayne Hale posted earlier, they'll see what it looks like at T-9 minutes and holding.  They'll watch the weather all day and make their decision somewhere in that hold.
« Last Edit: 10/31/2010 07:31 pm by psloss »

Offline Gemini63

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #47 on: 10/31/2010 07:40 pm »
NWS MLB has flipped over into the threatening category now, going from likely dry to probably wet with 40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Again this isn't going to be an all-day event, but I'd sitting at only 50/50 both days. Conditions start to improve by Friday.

And that decision could be made on the spur of the moment, correct?
If you mean impulsively, no.  Generally they'll fuel the vehicle, the crew will get on board, and the launch team will take the countdown down to the last hold and everyone will be ready to go.  As Wayne Hale posted earlier, they'll see what it looks like at T-9 minutes and holding.  They'll watch the weather all day and make their decision somewhere in that hold.


Thanks for the clarification. No, I wasn't suggesting that they would do that impulsively but you've provided insight as to when that assessment would be made. I'd study the criteria more closely but it would make me all the more nervous. Thanks for the info

JP

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #48 on: 11/01/2010 10:25 am »
This morning's SMG forecast is out.  The forecast for KSC is now including a chance of a ceiling violation along with the chance of showers w/in 20 n.mi. violating a RTLS weather rule.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0

The forecast for the TAL sites and the other continental U.S. sites don't appear to have changed much; most of them look good.

There will be a weather officer representative at today's pre-launch news conference, so this should all be briefed there.

Quote
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
630 AM CDT MONDAY NOVEMBER 01 2010

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-133

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      1952Z
                DATE:      11/03/10

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT030 BKN070 BKN200           7              11011P16
      CHC SHRA WI 20NM/CHC BKN030

 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT250                         7              29008P12


 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  SKC                            7              07005P08


 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  SCT060 SCT120 BKN250           7              35009P14


 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 KSC  BKN030 BKN060 OVC180           7              13009P14
      CHC SHRA WI 30NM

 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 11/04/10 00Z TO 11/04/10 01Z
 EDW  FEW300                         7              06006P11


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/PRECIP
 EDW ... NONE
 NOR ... NONE
 ZZA ... NONE
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 2/1300Z

 KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
       ICAO ID IS KTTS
 EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
       ICAO ID IS KEDW
 NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
       ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
 ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEZG
 MRN...MORON SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEMO
 FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
       ICAO ID IS LFMI

VANSPEYBROECK/ORAM/HOOD
« Last Edit: 11/01/2010 10:34 am by psloss »

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #49 on: 11/01/2010 10:55 am »
Couple of shots from a launch weather briefing going on.  No change to the chance of weather violation percentage for Wednesday.
« Last Edit: 11/01/2010 10:56 am by psloss »

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #50 on: 11/01/2010 11:30 am »
Today's 45th Weather Squadron forecast is out:
http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

As Kathy Winters hinted in yesterday's countdown status briefing, the forecast for Thursday looks worse; no change to the probability numbers for Wednesday, though.

(We'll get a full briefing on this during the pre-launch news conference later on.)

Excerpt:
Quote
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch:           30%   
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking:           5%   
Primary concern(s):  Low-cloud ceiling, showers within 20NM of the SLF
 
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay:   60%   
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking:  20%   
Primary concern(s):  Low-cloud ceiling, showers within 20NM of the SLF, anvil clouds
 
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay:  30%   
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking:  10%   
Primary concern(s):  Low-cloud ceiling, launch wind

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #51 on: 11/01/2010 01:22 pm »
Wednesday is still a massive tossup, as it's a race between T0 and the incoming moisture. Some models have it completely dry all day with just a few clouds, others are soaked with 0% chance of launch. To be honest, that's about as much as I can say about the situation.

I'm very confident that Thursday is a no-go. Things start to get better after that, and the weekend looks fine.

Offline shuttlefanatic

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #52 on: 11/01/2010 01:53 pm »
Wednesday is still a massive tossup, as it's a race between T0 and the incoming moisture.

That can be seen in the SMG forecasts as it degrades between the RTLS (L+25m) forecast and the AOA (L+90m) forecast.

Is AOA weather a constraint to launch, or can they use an alternate site (I assume Edwards is too far cross-track)?
« Last Edit: 11/01/2010 02:01 pm by shuttlefanatic »

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #53 on: 11/01/2010 02:10 pm »
I don't think AOA at KSC is a constraint. I've had time to look in detail at the event now that it's getting into the realm of the short-range models and not much has changed. Still a muddied look at Wednesday, but I'm around 70% go. Thursday has a 20% chance of launch, and back to 70% for Friday and 80+ for the weekend.

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #54 on: 11/01/2010 02:21 pm »
I don't think AOA at KSC is a constraint. I've had time to look in detail at the event now that it's getting into the realm of the short-range models and not much has changed. Still a muddied look at Wednesday, but I'm around 70% go. Thursday has a 20% chance of launch, and back to 70% for Friday and 80+ for the weekend.
I think they could use Northrup/White Sands for AOA on a high-inclination launch, but not sure.

Still too early to tell whether there will be that big a difference in the weather between the launch window period and the period where an AOA landing would be.  (Highly unlikely as that might be.)

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #55 on: 11/01/2010 04:15 pm »
I think they could use Northrup/White Sands for AOA on a high-inclination launch, but not sure.
Just to clarify, per Shuttle Flight Rule A2-207, Northrup/White Sands is available for AOA for 51.6 inclination launches (KSC would be primary).  Interestingly, the crossrange is such that KSC is available for 51.6 but not for 57 (White Sands was the only CONUS site available for 57-degree inclination launches).

L2 has a more recent copy of the flight rules, but an earlier revision is available publicly here:
http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/news/columbia/fr_generic.pdf

Offline shuttlefanatic

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #56 on: 11/01/2010 04:55 pm »
I think they could use Northrup/White Sands for AOA on a high-inclination launch, but not sure.
Just to clarify, per Shuttle Flight Rule A2-207, Northrup/White Sands is available for AOA for 51.6 inclination launches (KSC would be primary).  Interestingly, the crossrange is such that KSC is available for 51.6 but not for 57 (White Sands was the only CONUS site available for 57-degree inclination launches).


Thanks for the flight rule reference.  I had the beast of a document from L2, but didn't have a chance to dig out the info :) 

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #57 on: 11/01/2010 05:44 pm »
As regards RTLS weather, there were some number of launches where Chief Astronaut Lindsey flew the STA and made the call that weather would permit the orbiter to return safely.  Obviously that won't be what he's doing during the STS-133 launch!  Is it known who will be performing that function?
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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #58 on: 11/01/2010 05:48 pm »
As regards RTLS weather, there were some number of launches where Chief Astronaut Lindsey flew the STA and made the call that weather would permit the orbiter to return safely.  Obviously that won't be what he's doing during the STS-133 launch!  Is it known who will be performing that function?

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Offline Fuji

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Re: STS-133 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #59 on: 11/01/2010 06:05 pm »

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