The NWS still says just 20% chance of rain on Wed so they are pretty much full go. I disagree and think it will be tough to get off until Saturday unless we get a nice break.
1) The 20% chance of rain refers to the NWS MLB forecast, not NWS SMG's. The probability of precipitation in MLB's public products has a specific definition and time period associated with it.
NWS MLB has flipped over into the threatening category now, going from likely dry to probably wet with 40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Again this isn't going to be an all-day event, but I'd sitting at only 50/50 both days. Conditions start to improve by Friday.
Quote from: rdale on 10/31/2010 07:08 pmNWS MLB has flipped over into the threatening category now, going from likely dry to probably wet with 40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Again this isn't going to be an all-day event, but I'd sitting at only 50/50 both days. Conditions start to improve by Friday.And that decision could be made on the spur of the moment, correct?
Quote from: Gemini63 on 10/31/2010 07:12 pmQuote from: rdale on 10/31/2010 07:08 pmNWS MLB has flipped over into the threatening category now, going from likely dry to probably wet with 40% chance of showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Again this isn't going to be an all-day event, but I'd sitting at only 50/50 both days. Conditions start to improve by Friday.And that decision could be made on the spur of the moment, correct?If you mean impulsively, no. Generally they'll fuel the vehicle, the crew will get on board, and the launch team will take the countdown down to the last hold and everyone will be ready to go. As Wayne Hale posted earlier, they'll see what it looks like at T-9 minutes and holding. They'll watch the weather all day and make their decision somewhere in that hold.
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTERHOUSTON TX 77058630 AM CDT MONDAY NOVEMBER 01 2010LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-133EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME: 1952Z DATE: 11/03/10 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY... KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL KSC SCT030 BKN070 BKN200 7 11011P16 CHC SHRA WI 20NM/CHC BKN030 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES ZARAGOZA...SPAIN ZZA SCT250 7 29008P12 MORON...SPAIN MRN SKC 7 07005P08 ISTRES...FRANCE FMI SCT060 SCT120 BKN250 7 35009P14 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES KSC BKN030 BKN060 OVC180 7 13009P14 CHC SHRA WI 30NM PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 11/04/10 00Z TO 11/04/10 01Z EDW FEW300 7 06006P11 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS: KSC ... CIG/PRECIP EDW ... NONE NOR ... NONE ZZA ... NONE MRN ... NONE FMI ... NONETHE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 2/1300Z KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL ICAO ID IS KTTS EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA ICAO ID IS KEDW NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY) ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN ICAO ID IS LEZG MRN...MORON SPAIN ICAO ID IS LEMO FMI...ISTRES FRANCE ICAO ID IS LFMIVANSPEYBROECK/ORAM/HOOD
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 30% Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5% Primary concern(s): Low-cloud ceiling, showers within 20NM of the SLF Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 60% Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 20% Primary concern(s): Low-cloud ceiling, showers within 20NM of the SLF, anvil clouds Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 30% Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 10% Primary concern(s): Low-cloud ceiling, launch wind
Wednesday is still a massive tossup, as it's a race between T0 and the incoming moisture.
I don't think AOA at KSC is a constraint. I've had time to look in detail at the event now that it's getting into the realm of the short-range models and not much has changed. Still a muddied look at Wednesday, but I'm around 70% go. Thursday has a 20% chance of launch, and back to 70% for Friday and 80+ for the weekend.
I think they could use Northrup/White Sands for AOA on a high-inclination launch, but not sure.
Quote from: psloss on 11/01/2010 02:21 pmI think they could use Northrup/White Sands for AOA on a high-inclination launch, but not sure.Just to clarify, per Shuttle Flight Rule A2-207, Northrup/White Sands is available for AOA for 51.6 inclination launches (KSC would be primary). Interestingly, the crossrange is such that KSC is available for 51.6 but not for 57 (White Sands was the only CONUS site available for 57-degree inclination launches).
As regards RTLS weather, there were some number of launches where Chief Astronaut Lindsey flew the STA and made the call that weather would permit the orbiter to return safely. Obviously that won't be what he's doing during the STS-133 launch! Is it known who will be performing that function?