Author Topic: Augustine Commission Members Announced  (Read 104519 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #60 on: 05/29/2009 06:24 pm »
First meeting set for June 17th

http://www.federalregister.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2009-12661_PI.pdf

Edit: Got this link of Jeff_Foust's Twitter page..

Since recently moving to Maryland I may have to be 'sick' that day.  See if I can get a seat.

Thanks for the post.
When do we see the first Superheavy reuse?

Offline renclod

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #61 on: 05/29/2009 06:32 pm »
Is something like a fly-by or one-way still on the table???

Technically, anything about Mars is off the table.

Appropriations Bill language ... "Finally, bill language is included prohibiting funding of any research, development, or demonstration activities related exclusively to the human exploration of Mars."

thanks to Barney Frank

Also thanks to Dana Rohrabacher. He supports that language and demands that planetary defense (Armageddon !) be considered first.


Offline edkyle99

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #62 on: 05/29/2009 06:53 pm »
I hope you are right, but I've seen this show before. 
It will be Augustine Commission Strikes Again! 
Featuring Science, Science, Science!
Mission to Planet Earth Two!   
ISS on the cheap!  (How many Soyuz to make one Orion?)
and
Mars -  a "very long-term goal"!

Wanna make a bet?

I'll bet you that they're not going to address science.

Don't assume that because something happened 19 years ago with a different set of people, a different president, a different set of ground rules, and a different environment, that it will happen again.

A fair assessment that I wouldn't want to bet against. :)

If I were on the commission, I would want to start with Orion and look hard at the Orion launch system (safety, cost, and schedule).  Since this should not be done without considering, or reconsidering, the planned lunar mission, I would want to 1) reconsider plans to fly Orion to ISS and 2) reconsider the planned lunar mission and its architecture. 

If Orion didn't have to fly to ISS (if NASA simply kept buying Soyuz seats), it would clear up the Crew Launch Vehicle question entirely.  The U.S. would not need to develop a Crew Launch Vehicle!

Instead, it could devote resources to the real mission - the lunar mission.  The lunar mission would only need one launch vehicle, common to crew and cargo.  It might have to be launched multiple times to perform each mission, but it would avoid the existing multiple crew/cargo launch vehicle development effort.

But, since I don't have a PhD, no one on the commission would listen to me!  I would end up watching the inevitable:  Atlas V launching two Orions to ISS every year, year after year, while NASA begged for lunar mission funding.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 05/29/2009 06:58 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline William Barton

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #63 on: 05/29/2009 07:10 pm »
Is something like a fly-by or one-way still on the table???

Technically, anything about Mars is off the table.

Appropriations Bill language ... "Finally, bill language is included prohibiting funding of any research, development, or demonstration activities related exclusively to the human exploration of Mars."

thanks to Barney Frank

Also thanks to Dana Rohrabacher. He supports that language and demands that planetary defense (Armageddon !) be considered first.



No shortage of Luddites... I think there must have been special sales on them at Wal-Mart and Filene's!

Offline renclod

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #64 on: 05/29/2009 07:46 pm »
Is something like a fly-by or one-way still on the table???

Technically, anything about Mars is off the table.

Appropriations Bill language ... "Finally, bill language is included prohibiting funding of any research, development, or demonstration activities related exclusively to the human exploration of Mars."

thanks to Barney Frank

Also thanks to Dana Rohrabacher. He supports that language and demands that planetary defense (Armageddon !) be considered first.



No shortage of Luddites... I think there must have been special sales on them at Wal-Mart and Filene's!

No, no, Rohrabacher said nothing against a lunar outpost, for instance, in that hearing; he was against a Mars mission before the asteroid impact menace is taken care of.

As for Barney Frank... well, I have to exercise self-restraint.


Offline psloss

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #65 on: 05/29/2009 07:56 pm »
The Orlando Sentinel is reporting that Leroy Chiao will likely be on the commission:
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_space_thewritestuff/2009/05/chiao-another-likely-member-of-augustine-commission.html

Offline mars.is.wet

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #66 on: 05/29/2009 09:15 pm »
Agree. One of the biggest difficulties will be keeping the humans alive inside of Orion for that long, especially given the requirements shed that appears to have happened.

One of the concepts I've seen involves Orion together with an early version of Altair. It also has a reduced crew of three or maybe even two. There are a couple of published papers on this.

Then once again, the budget does not support this.  And Altair is not sized for the length of time a NEO mission would take.  Lots of hand waving and conjecture, not enough conservative cost and schedule estimation.

Offline mars.is.wet

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #67 on: 05/29/2009 09:17 pm »

Also thanks to Dana Rohrabacher. He supports that language and demands that planetary defense (Armageddon !) be considered first.


Forgot that.   But it was Frank that angrily demanded Griffin remove Mars from his architecture (in Frank's office).  Agree that Rohrabacher is all about saving the Earth from asteroids.

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #68 on: 05/29/2009 09:21 pm »
Then once again, the budget does not support this.  And Altair is not sized for the length of time a NEO mission would take.  Lots of hand waving and conjecture, not enough conservative cost and schedule estimation.

Probably true, but at least it should cost a lot less less than current plans and still allow for later extension. The proposals I've seen would require something like J-130 + Orion + Altair precursor + Centaur/DHCSS. No new engines, no new upper stage, no surface systems. Altair would be simplified on the one hand because it would need no no landing operations, but extended for long duration on the other hand.
Pro-tip: you don't have to be a jerk if someone doesn't agree with your theories

Offline mars.is.wet

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #69 on: 05/29/2009 09:29 pm »
Then once again, the budget does not support this.  And Altair is not sized for the length of time a NEO mission would take.  Lots of hand waving and conjecture, not enough conservative cost and schedule estimation.

Probably true, but at least it should cost a lot less less than current plans and still allow for later extension. The proposals I've seen would require something like J-130 + Orion + Altair precursor + Centaur/DHCSS. No new engines, no new upper stage, no surface systems. Altair would be simplified on the one hand because it would need no no landing operations, but extended for long duration on the other hand.

Remember that missions are more than just the space hardware.  There is a LOT of stuff that would need to be developed, and the budget doesn't support what we have in there for a Moon 2020.

My best estimate is if we stay the current course and keep the Obama budget cuts (no growth in NASA budget), we could do Moon 2024.  Or NEO 2021 and Moon 2026.

Or not do it at all ....

Offline mars.is.wet

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #70 on: 05/29/2009 09:59 pm »
With most of the team announced, but not yet on contract and the first public meeting set for June 17, it looks like the team is about 2 weeks behind my draft schedule.  That gives the team less than 3 weeks for analysis and report writing. 

May 15 - team members idenefied, start collecting internal data
May 20 - XO sets schedule
May 30 - team members under contract and ready to meet
Jun 1 - initial meeting of full team
Jun 1-21 4-5 stops around the country for public and NASA hearings
July 1 - report writing starts
July 1 options identified, analysis (if any) begins
July 15 options consolidated
August 1 - report written and briefed to HQ
August 15 - report socialized inside then outside HQ for comment
August 30 - official report to OSTP
« Last Edit: 05/29/2009 10:00 pm by mars.is.wet »

Offline HIPAR

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #71 on: 05/29/2009 10:14 pm »
The commission starts work in June.  How long will its study last. When will the report be published?

The moon and Mars are fun things to imagine but, the way I see it, getting through the basic space access gap is the principal problem facing NASA.  Don't forget, NASA is going to fly a test Aries rocket this year.

Wouldn't the success or failure of that flight test be more pertinent than a commission's theoretical study?  If so, how should the commission evaluate the current progress when an actual conceptual test might occur while it's working for its findings?

I guess I'm questioning the timing of expected events.

---  CHAS 

Offline mars.is.wet

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #72 on: 05/29/2009 10:20 pm »
The commission starts work in June.  How long will its study last. When will the report be published?

The moon and Mars are fun things to imagine but, the way I see it, getting through the basic space access gap is the principal problem facing NASA.  Don't forget, NASA is going to fly a test Aries rocket this year.

Wouldn't the success or failure of that flight test be more pertinent than a commission's theoretical study?  If so, how should the commission evaluate the current progress when an actual conceptual test might occur while it's working for its findings?

I guess I'm questioning the timing of expected events.

---  CHAS 

See above.  Study is due end of August for use in the 2010/2011 budget process.

Regarding Ares I ... it is not relevant to the success or failure of Ares / Orion.  It is a "practice" rocket that gives the designers and operators a chance to work out their mistakes.  And if it wasn't over budget and late, it would be a great example of that.


Offline HIPAR

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #73 on: 05/29/2009 10:50 pm »

... Regarding Ares I ... it is not relevant to the success or failure of Ares / Orion.  It is a "practice" rocket that gives the designers and operators a chance to work out their mistakes.  And if it wasn't over budget and late, it would be a great example of that.


An irrelevant test that provides information about what and what doesn't work as expected .. call the doesn't work part 'mistakes' if you wish.  There's no way I would fly a fully integrated machine without getting there incrementally.

And there is no way I would serve on a committee whose findings might soon be invalidated by an 'irrelevant practice rocket' test. 

I'll put more stock in those irrelevant test results.

---  CHAS


 
« Last Edit: 05/29/2009 10:53 pm by HIPAR »

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #74 on: 05/29/2009 10:55 pm »
But, since I don't have a PhD, no one on the commission would listen to me!  I would end up watching the inevitable:  Atlas V launching two Orions to ISS every year, year after year, while NASA begged for lunar mission funding.

Ph.D.s are overrated.

Offline TrueBlueWitt

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #75 on: 05/29/2009 11:02 pm »
But, since I don't have a PhD, no one on the commission would listen to me!  I would end up watching the inevitable:  Atlas V launching two Orions to ISS every year, year after year, while NASA begged for lunar mission funding.

Ph.D.s are overrated.

I would agree.. We have quite a few Ph.D.s where I work..
And when something isn't working right.. the person they all ask for help has a BSME ;)

Offline agman25

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #76 on: 05/29/2009 11:09 pm »
But, since I don't have a PhD, no one on the commission would listen to me!  I would end up watching the inevitable:  Atlas V launching two Orions to ISS every year, year after year, while NASA begged for lunar mission funding.

Ph.D.s are overrated.
Six years of my life spent in the still unfulfilled quest for one. At least admit it gets you cheap grad student labor.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #77 on: 05/29/2009 11:16 pm »
But, since I don't have a PhD, no one on the commission would listen to me!  I would end up watching the inevitable:  Atlas V launching two Orions to ISS every year, year after year, while NASA begged for lunar mission funding.

Ph.D.s are overrated.
Six years of my life spent in the still unfulfilled quest for one. At least admit it gets you cheap grad student labor.

Took me ten.

Offline Blackstar

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #78 on: 05/29/2009 11:17 pm »
I tried to attach a briefing of the NEO proposal, but it is 26 megs and got rejected.  You can find it yourself here:

http://event.arc.nasa.gov/aresv-sss/index.php?fuseaction=home.agenda

It was presented at a workshop at Ames last August.

I have several variations of this briefing that were presented to different committees.  They all contain the same information.

Although I realize that it is pointless to say so, I would caution everybody against reading too much from this briefing.  This was only a preliminary study conducted a couple of years ago.  The purpose was to evaluate whether or not Orion could conduct such a mission and how it might do so.  They never got very far into it, so what you see as possible hardware options are pretty low-fidelity.  For instance, they didn't determine how much mass would be needed, nor did they answer a number of key questions (like number of crew members, and medical issues). 

A key challenge would be finding a suitable target.  Although there are a lot of NEOs out there, very few of them have orbits that make them suitable for such a mission.  And the right orbit alone is insufficient.  The NEO would have to be fairly large.  It would have to not be a binary (because you don't want the moon coming around and smacking your Orion).  It would have to have a very slow rotation rate.  (There is a 150-meter diameter NEO that rotates every 5 minutes!)  And it would have to be a monolith--i.e. a solid rock--because touching a rubble pile might create a lot of dust and debris that could damage the Orion. 

Any mission would require a robotic precursor mission to check it out, and this could further reduce the available targets, because you would have to find an NEO that you could visit first with a robot and then again later with an Orion.

This is a confined trade space, and right now it is not well understood.  It would require further study, which NASA is not doing at the moment.

But once again, I would caution anybody looking at this presentation from drawing any big conclusions.  They don't "need" an Altair, or "need" this or that.  They haven't determined exactly _what_ they need at the moment, and unless and until they perform more studies, this idea will remain undefined.

Offline agman25

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Re: Augustine Commission Members Announced
« Reply #79 on: 05/29/2009 11:30 pm »
But, since I don't have a PhD, no one on the commission would listen to me!  I would end up watching the inevitable:  Atlas V launching two Orions to ISS every year, year after year, while NASA begged for lunar mission funding.

Ph.D.s are overrated.
Six years of my life spent in the still unfulfilled quest for one. At least admit it gets you cheap grad student labor.

Took me ten.
Ouch! Will bear that in mind.

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