Poll

When will ULA get delivery of 2 flight-ready BE-4 engines?

By the end of 2021
0 (0%)
Q1 2022
16 (34%)
Q2 2022
13 (27.7%)
H2 2022
12 (25.5%)
2023+
6 (12.8%)

Total Members Voted: 47

Voting closed: 12/02/2021 08:39 pm


Author Topic: When will ULA get delivery of 2 flight-ready BE-4 engines?  (Read 4562 times)

Online Rebel44

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When do you think ULA will get delivery of 2 flight-ready BE-4 engines?

If ULA gets them soon and manages to launch Vulcan in 2022, BE-4 delays might turn out only an inconvenience for them, but if delays continue it could cause ULA serious problems with future NSSL + NASA launch awards.

Online Rebel44

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IMO, ULA will get 2 flight-ready BE-4 engines at the end of February 2022 - assuming qualification engines pass tests without issues.

Online Rebel44

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Based on Eric Berger's reporting and recent info in the Space News article, those of us who guessed Q1 2022 are almost certain to lose and Q2 is far from certain.

Offline BrianNH

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And the winner was H2 2022.

Offline Vahe231991

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And the winner was H2 2022.
Your guess about when ULA would receive the first flight-ready BE-4 was in many ways unsurprising because Blue Origin was holding on to hopes of overcoming all issues encountered in flight-ready BE-4 test runs and delivering the first flight-ready engines to ULA in 2022.

Offline DanClemmensen

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As I understand it, The engines they received had passed their acceptance tests, but the BE-4 design has (had?) not completed all of the qualification tests.

Acceptance test: tests each individual engine to assure it does what it was designed to do.
Qualification tests: tests the design on multiple units, often testing to destruction.

Thus the engines that passed their acceptance tests and were delivered to ULA will not be known to be "flight ready" until all of the qualification tests are completed. If all of the qualification tests pass, the engines delivered to ULA are then retroactively known to be flight-ready as of the date of delivery. If the qualification tests uncover a problem that requires modifications, then the delivered engines have never been flight ready.

It might be more reasonable to declare that they become flight ready on the day the qualification tests are complete. I did not vote in this poll because I don't care about these subtleties. I only care about the first successful launch.

Offline trimeta

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It's a bit of a paradox, isn't it? They've received the engines, and should the qualification tests on other engines go well, then the ones they received were flight-ready all along and the day those engines were received is the day ULA got flight-ready engines. But if the qualification tests fail, then suddenly these aren't flight-ready engines and ULA never received any.

Offline Tommyboy

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It's a bit of a paradox, isn't it? They've received the engines, and should the qualification tests on other engines go well, then the ones they received were flight-ready all along and the day those engines were received is the day ULA got flight-ready engines. But if the qualification tests fail, then suddenly these aren't flight-ready engines and ULA never received any.
Schrödinger's engines.

Tags: Vulcan BE-4 
 

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