Author Topic: Kosmos-482 (V-72 №671) Stranded Venera Programme Spacecraft Reentered  (Read 37863 times)

Online LittleBird

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Ain't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.

“ We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.”

—-TS Eliot, “Little Gidding”

Offline KWC

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Upon hearing about this probe, I couldn't help but think about the line from 'The Martian' when Mark Watney is criticizing one of commander Lewis' crummy TV shows. He thinks it's ridiculous that a Russian Venus probe would land on the wrong planet by mistake and attack random people... but apparently he was at least partially incorrect.
So this is how other people put stuff at the bottom of their posts!

Offline Robotbeat

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Ain't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.
But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0


Offline Hobbes-22

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Ain't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.
But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.

The descent rate will be a lot higher, so the thing is likely to impact at high speed and get wrecked.

Offline edzieba

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Ain't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.
But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.

The descent rate will be a lot higher, so the thing is likely to impact at high speed and get wrecked.
The parachute not deploying because the batteries for any triggers will have been dead for half a century certainly won't help with survivability.

Offline Star One

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Ain't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.
But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.

The descent rate will be a lot higher, so the thing is likely to impact at high speed and get wrecked.
The parachute not deploying because the batteries for any triggers will have been dead for half a century certainly won't help with survivability.
Be funny after saying all this if they did work by some miracle.

If it did somehow survive touchdown on land and not the sea, would it immediately have to be handed over to Russia as it remains their property?

Offline litton4

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Upon hearing about this probe, I couldn't help but think about the line from 'The Martian' when Mark Watney is criticizing one of commander Lewis' crummy TV shows. He thinks it's ridiculous that a Russian Venus probe would land on the wrong planet by mistake and attack random people... but apparently he was at least partially incorrect.

"The Six Million Dollar Man" - I loved that episode and the followup! Yes, it got 2 episodes!
Dave Condliffe

Offline Star One

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Scott Manley’s just put out a video on this topic:


Offline Narnianknight

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Ain't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.
But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.

The descent rate will be a lot higher, so the thing is likely to impact at high speed and get wrecked.
The parachute not deploying because the batteries for any triggers will have been dead for half a century certainly won't help with survivability.
Be funny after saying all this if they did work by some miracle.

If it did somehow survive touchdown on land and not the sea, would it immediately have to be handed over to Russia as it remains their property?

It belonged to the USSR, which no longer exists. Free game I say.

Offline laszlo

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International law says that it belongs to the successor state, assuming all the salvage conditions are resolved.

Offline Star One

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International law says that it belongs to the successor state, assuming all the salvage conditions are resolved.
That’s what I thought. Going by that Scott Manley video it sounds like even without a parachute it might have more chance of surviving intact if it hit the ocean rather than land.

Offline KWC

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Do we actually know when and where it's coming down? All the sources I have found say it's up in the air (no pun intended), but surely it has about a 70% chance of hitting some ocean somewhere.
So this is how other people put stuff at the bottom of their posts!

Offline daedalus1

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Anywhere between 51°N and 51°S.

Offline StraumliBlight

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Do we actually know when and where it's coming down? All the sources I have found say it's up in the air (no pun intended), but surely it has about a 70% chance of hitting some ocean somewhere.

Marco Langbroek's blog is tracking it.

Quote
Update Date   Predicted Re-entry   Uncertainty
Apr 30, 8:00 UTC   10 May 2025, 06:01 UTC   ± 2.8 days
May 2, 20:20 UTC11 May 2025, 03:41 UTC± 2.2 days
May 4, 13:30 UTC10 May 2025, 23:06 UTC± 1.8 days
May 5, 8:50 UTC10 May 2025, 19:05 UTC± 1.5 days
May 6, 12:50 UTC10 May 2025, 8:37 UTC± 1.0 days
May 7, 8:50 UTC10 May 2025, 7:51 UTC± 20.6 hr
May 8, 6:20 UTC10 May 2025, 7:34 UTC± 14.6 hr
May 9, 16:20 UTC10 May 2025, 6:30 UTC± 4.1 hr
May 10, 05:40 UTC10 May 2025, 6:39 UTC± 1.5 hr
« Last Edit: 05/10/2025 07:39 am by StraumliBlight »

Offline SnowyOwl

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https://x.com/ralfvandebergh/status/1917618156589248616
Quote
New imagery of 1972 launched intended #Venera probe to visit #Venus but that is stuck in Earth orbit for 53 years, likely confirms that some structure is connected to the capsule. Not impossible that it's the parachute, but this is still speculation!

Offline Star One

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The Story Of Kosmos 482, The Soviet Spaceship About To Crash To Earth

Quote
Part of the Kosmos 482 spacecraft – a handful of round titanium pressure vessels, which may have been part of rocket engines, rained down on New Zealand a few days later, causing quite a stir and making into a New Zealand government report on UFOs which was released in 2011.



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New Zealand, farmer Dennis O’Sullivan was just 17 years old when he discovered one of the spheres in his turnip field.

“I saw this mound in the paddock, and I thought it was a dead sheep,” he told The Press decades later. “I went closer, and there was this metal ball lying there next to a bit of a hollow about three feet away.” It turned out to be a titanium alloy sphere, marked with Russian labels. O’Sullivan hefted the 30 pound sphere and carried in his lap on the drive back to the farmhouse to call the police.

At least one of the spheres spent the night in jail after its apprehension by local police. John Lindores, who found the sphere on his property, told The Press the police “took it to Ashburton Jail and locked it up for the night.”



Quote
Under international treaty – signed not long before Kosmos 482’s ill-fated launch, at that – the spheres still belonged to the Soviet Union and should have been returned. But the USSR disavowed all knowledge of the spaceship parts scattered across Ashburton and the surrounding area. That left them as bizarre souvenirs for the stunned Kiwis on whose property they’d landed. Lindores loaned his, permanently, to the Ashburton Aviation Museum. O’Sullivan has kept his “in a corner of his lounge” for the last 53 years, after a failed attempt to sell it on eBay.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kionasmith/2025/05/07/the-story-of-kosmos-482-the-soviet-spaceship-about-to-crash-to-earth/

Offline Apollo22

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Wait, part of Kosmos 482 rained on New Zealand in the past ? imagine, if the present one fell on New Zealand too.  :o

Offline ralfvandebergh

New images set
Cosmos-482 observations 13 year time span. The structure in Cosmos-482 is unlike anything I have seen in 15 year sat imaging. I've seen a lot of seeing and other effects, but this looks really like something else. Interestingly, Cosmos44 is also a historic object, from a 1964 launch! It was the rocket from the 3th Russian experimental weather satellite. The second images set shows a comparison to a first gen Starlink satellite that is 130 km further away. This gives some size indication. Starlink sat bus is approx. 1.3 x 2.7 meters (according to SpaceX specifications).

In the course of the years when working on this project, I gathered a lot of information on what may happened back then:

From my old website:

After the launch, five pieces of Cosmos 482 were found in Earth orbit, the spacecraft Cosmos 482 itself (1972-023A), the Molniya rocket 3rd stage or SL-6 Blok I (1972-023B) the SL-6 PLATFORM (1972-023C), the Molniya rocket 4th stage or SL-6 Blok-NVL (1972-023D), and a debris item (1972-023E). Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics astronomer Jonathan McDowell comments on object C cataloged as PLATFORM: 'When the Soviets first started using the parking orbit technique in 1961, the US thought this object, the BOZ, was an orbiting platform from which the 4th stage was 'launched' - I guess it's not totally wrong to look at it that way'.

The pieces B and C already reentered on respectively April 1 and April 2, 1972, shortly after launch. Fragment D (with RCS of 8,75) would have been the Block-NVL upper stage and reentered on February 20, 1983. Object A, which is believed to be the original Cosmos 482 (Venera) spacecraft bus, was in an original orbit of 205 x 9800 kilometers and decayed already on May 5, 1981. According to Russianspaceweb, the debris cataloged as object E separated from Cosmos 482 (object A) late June 1972 and thus objects A and E had a similar initial elliptical orbit.

The debris item E is still in orbit and this is the object that I photographed in recent years with the telescope. This object is currently in an orbit of (at the time this was written) 203 x 2406 kilometers (the orbit lowered with 7394 kilometers since 1972) and would have - according to available data - a radar cross section (RCS) of only 0,72 square meters. The big difference in RCS compared to the in 1981 decayed piece - which would have been 12,6 square meters - suggest that the already decayed item was the actual spacecraft bus and that Cosmos 482E (object E), the only remaining item from the launch, is only a smaller element of the spacecraft, according to experts the descent craft (the lander). Also the full-illumination brightness at perigee of -0,1 mag for the decayed piece compared to 2,3 mag for the remaining piece, strengthen these suspicions. There are also visual observation reports from the 1970's that confirm that Cosmos 482A (object A) was a bright object in the night sky.

Ralf Vandebergh

https://satellite-imaging.jouwweb.nl/selected-project-samples-best-works
« Last Edit: 05/08/2025 12:50 am by ralfvandebergh »

Offline eeergo

Latest reentry predictions from Langbroek https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2025/04/kosmos-842-descent-craft-reentry.html:

--------------------------------------------------------------------
TUDAT REENTRY FORECAST EVOLUTION for KOSMOS 482 Descent Craft
M. Langbroek & D. Dirkx, Delft University of Technology

Date/times in UTC

REFERENCE ORBIT    ORBIT EPOCH      REENTRY FORECAST   +/-
---------------------------------------------------------------- 
15-11-2024 05:43   24320.23870400   05-05-2025 23:33   42.9 days
01-12-2024 05:32   24336.23116452   08-05-2025 09:09   39.5 days
15-12-2024 18:58   24350.79080401   07-05-2025 11:51   35.7 days
01-01-2025 11:20   25001.47260254   09-05-2025 07:20   32.0 days
15-01-2025 03:23   25015.14140884   10-05-2025 20:40   28.9 days
02-02-2025 08:54   25033.37115746   13-05-2025 17:52   25.1 days
15-02-2025 03:20   25046.13941015   11-05-2025 09:52   21.3 days
01-03-2025 00:07   25060.00535989   10-05-2025 17:51   17.7 days
15-03-2025 05:56   25074.24770046   10-05-2025 07:57   14.0 days
30-03-2025 12:05   25089.50360681   09-05-2025 21:11   10.1 days
13-04-2025 21:32   25103.89775709   09-05-2025 22:01    6.5 days
20-04-2025 01:39   25110.06916305   09-05-2025 11:31    4.9 days
22-04-2025 21:24   25112.89204293   09-05-2025 12:48    4.2 days
23-04-2025 22:57   25113.95657237   09-05-2025 19:43    4.0 days
27-04-2025 00:27   25117.01893077   10-05-2025 04:52    3.3 days
28-04-2025 00:24   25118.01685903   10-05-2025 06:33    3.1 days
28-04-2025 22:50   25118.95143786   10-05-2025 06:01    2.8 days
01-05-2025 20:57   25121.87323063   10-05-2025 14:30    2.2 days
02-05-2025 09:12   25122.38386703   11-05-2025 02:36    2.2 days
02-05-2025 12:16   25122.51167762   11-05-2025 03:41    2.2 days
02-05-2025 17:52   25122.74476620   11-05-2025 06:50    2.1 days
03-05-2025 18:07   25123.75533175   10-05-2025 20:48    1.8 days
03-05-2025 21:05   25123.87876286   10-05-2025 23:06    1.8 days
04-05-2025 20:47   25124.86648285   10-05-2025 19:05    1.5 days
05-05-2025 20:29   25125.85361170   10-05-2025 07:26    1.1 days
06-05-2025 09:39   25126.40254557   10-05-2025 08:37    1.0 day
06-05-2025 21:26   25126.89335737   10-05-2025 07:51   20.6 hr
07-05-2025 21:00   25127.87559184   10-05-2025 07:34   14.6 hr   *

Coming down late tomorrow or more likely on Saturday.
-DaviD-

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