Cosmos 482 burnt down 1981 May 5 in the earth's atmosphere.The object in Earth orbit is probably the landing capsule, which was separated 1972 July 29.
The last time a Soviet Venus probe fell back to Earth it was not pretty:
Quote from: Blackstar on 07/09/2018 06:10 pmThe last time a Soviet Venus probe fell back to Earth it was not pretty:Is that from the Six Million Dollar Man? As isn’t there an episode where people are terrorised by a robotic space vehicle?
If it is the landing capsule I wonder if it'll make it to the surface in one piece given it was meant to survive the conditions on Venus. Not that it will be found.
Quote from: Star One on 07/09/2018 07:51 pmQuote from: Blackstar on 07/09/2018 06:10 pmThe last time a Soviet Venus probe fell back to Earth it was not pretty:Is that from the Six Million Dollar Man? As isn’t there an episode where people are terrorised by a robotic space vehicle?"Guest starring" in two 2-part episodes!"Deathprobe""Return of Deathprobe"
Yeah, they don't build them like Deathprobe anymore.
Quote from: Star One on 07/09/2018 07:51 pmQuote from: Blackstar on 07/09/2018 06:10 pmThe last time a Soviet Venus probe fell back to Earth it was not pretty:Is that from the Six Million Dollar Man? As isn’t there an episode where people are terrorised by a robotic space vehicle?"Guest starring" in two 2-part episodes!"Deathprobe""Return of Deathprobe"Steve vs. probe:
IIRC radiation from a returning Venus probe was the cause of the zombie apocalypse in the classic "Night of the Living Dead"
This post made me aware of the Venus landers which I didn't even know existed. Amazing! They had to make machinery at earth temperatures that would work after they had been heated up to hundreds of degrees celcius, causing the metals to expand. I thought that the technology to put a machine on the surface of Venus was decades in the future but it was actually decades in the past.
It separated into four pieces, two of which remained in low Earth orbit and decayed within 48 hours into south New Zealand (known as the Ashburton balls incident), and two pieces (presumably the payload and detached engine unit) went into a higher 210 x 9800 km orbit.
Wait a minute. The landing capsule separated from the main vehicle in 1972 and the main vehicle re-entered. What has been keeping the capsule in orbit since separation?
Vaguely recall someone getting a good photo of Kosmos 482 and showing it was still the complete vehicle with the capsule still attached.
Depends when the photo was taken of course.
I note that Anatoly Zak says "With less degree of certainty, it can be speculated that the Venus lander is still attached to the main probe while its upper stage is not" (my own emphasis).
1972-023E(2018 July 09)52.05° 112.39min 202-2471 km
Quote from: Alter Sachse on 07/12/2018 07:17 am1972-023E(2018 July 09)52.05° 112.39min 202-2471 km2018 Oct 0152.06° 112.17min 202-2451 km
This post made me aware of the Venus landers which I didn't even know existed. Amazing! They had to make machinery at earth temperatures that would work after they had been heated up to hundreds of degrees celcius, causing the metals to expand. I thought that the technology to put a machine on the surface of Venus was decades in the future but it was actually decades in the past.http://mentallandscape.com/C_CatalogVenus.htmhttp://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera09_Processed.jpghttp://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera10_Processed.jpghttp://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera13_Camera1.jpghttp://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera13_Camera2.jpghttp://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera14_Camera1.jpghttp://mentallandscape.com/C_Venera14_Camera2.jpg
Quote from: Alter Sachse on 07/09/2018 12:37 pmCosmos 482 burnt down 1981 May 5 in the earth's atmosphere.The object in Earth orbit is probably the landing capsule, which was separated 1972 July 29.If it is the landing capsule I wonder if it'll make it to the surface in one piece given it was meant to survive the conditions on Venus. Not that it will be found.
It concerned an unusual object launched 47 years ago, called the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft (1972-023E, CSpOC nr 6073). Word was that it was about to reenter into the atmosphere, maybe even this year. But will it? Short answer: almost certainly not.The source of the prediction is attributed to Thomas Dorman in the Space.com article, but how the prediction was done is not clear from the news coverage. On the request of David Dickinson, who was preparing an article on the topic for Universe Today, I made my own assessment of the issue. I looked at the orbital decay of 1972-023E since 1973 and did some GMAT modelling to gain insight into how the orbital decay will develop in the future.As I will show in this post, my modelling suggests the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft is not to come down yet for several years.
Spaceship of the advanced ancient civilization is about to return to EarthThe descent module of the Venera 8 probe unlucky backup -- object 3B №671 (named "Cosmos-482") would fall to Earth in early May, after spending half a century in the orbit.Launched in 1972, the spherical capsule today rotates in an orbit with 52 degrees inclination, an apogee of 393 kilometers and a low perigee of 160 kilometers, located above the Northern Hemisphere. This allows us to assume that around May 10, the object would dive into the atmosphere above our hemisphere.Since it has been empirically established that reentry time estimation accuracy is approximately equal to one tenth of the remaining period of ballistic existence, nothing can be said definitely about the spacecraft descent area (besides that it would occur south of the 52nd parallel). Moreover, impact time and location prediction is heavily affected by solar activity variations.It is very likely that the rugged lander, designed for a long descent into the Venus atmosphere, would reach our planet's surface intact... and even the parachute may open IPM ISON experts are monitoring the uncontrolled reentry of 3B type spacecraft. The animation has been filmed on April 9 by S. Shmalts using ORI-22 telescope at the Castelgrande Observatory.
Ain't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.
Quote from: Apollo22 on 04/27/2025 05:44 pmAin't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/28/2025 09:18 pmQuote from: Apollo22 on 04/27/2025 05:44 pmAin't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.The descent rate will be a lot higher, so the thing is likely to impact at high speed and get wrecked.
Quote from: Hobbes-22 on 04/29/2025 05:56 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 04/28/2025 09:18 pmQuote from: Apollo22 on 04/27/2025 05:44 pmAin't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.The descent rate will be a lot higher, so the thing is likely to impact at high speed and get wrecked.The parachute not deploying because the batteries for any triggers will have been dead for half a century certainly won't help with survivability.
Upon hearing about this probe, I couldn't help but think about the line from 'The Martian' when Mark Watney is criticizing one of commander Lewis' crummy TV shows. He thinks it's ridiculous that a Russian Venus probe would land on the wrong planet by mistake and attack random people... but apparently he was at least partially incorrect.
Quote from: edzieba on 04/29/2025 09:03 amQuote from: Hobbes-22 on 04/29/2025 05:56 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 04/28/2025 09:18 pmQuote from: Apollo22 on 04/27/2025 05:44 pmAin't that amusing ? the silly thing missed her trip to Venus but finally made it to another planet. And it could even survive its reentry, because Venus is harder than Earth.But the descent rate may be higher because earth atmosphere is thinner.The descent rate will be a lot higher, so the thing is likely to impact at high speed and get wrecked.The parachute not deploying because the batteries for any triggers will have been dead for half a century certainly won't help with survivability.Be funny after saying all this if they did work by some miracle.If it did somehow survive touchdown on land and not the sea, would it immediately have to be handed over to Russia as it remains their property?
International law says that it belongs to the successor state, assuming all the salvage conditions are resolved.
Do we actually know when and where it's coming down? All the sources I have found say it's up in the air (no pun intended), but surely it has about a 70% chance of hitting some ocean somewhere.
Update Date Predicted Re-entry UncertaintyApr 30, 8:00 UTC 10 May 2025, 06:01 UTC ± 2.8 daysMay 2, 20:20 UTC11 May 2025, 03:41 UTC± 2.2 daysMay 4, 13:30 UTC10 May 2025, 23:06 UTC± 1.8 daysMay 5, 8:50 UTC10 May 2025, 19:05 UTC± 1.5 daysMay 6, 12:50 UTC10 May 2025, 8:37 UTC± 1.0 daysMay 7, 8:50 UTC10 May 2025, 7:51 UTC± 20.6 hrMay 8, 6:20 UTC10 May 2025, 7:34 UTC± 14.6 hrMay 9, 16:20 UTC10 May 2025, 6:30 UTC± 4.1 hrMay 10, 05:40 UTC10 May 2025, 6:39 UTC± 1.5 hr
New imagery of 1972 launched intended #Venera probe to visit #Venus but that is stuck in Earth orbit for 53 years, likely confirms that some structure is connected to the capsule. Not impossible that it's the parachute, but this is still speculation!
Part of the Kosmos 482 spacecraft – a handful of round titanium pressure vessels, which may have been part of rocket engines, rained down on New Zealand a few days later, causing quite a stir and making into a New Zealand government report on UFOs which was released in 2011.
New Zealand, farmer Dennis O’Sullivan was just 17 years old when he discovered one of the spheres in his turnip field.“I saw this mound in the paddock, and I thought it was a dead sheep,” he told The Press decades later. “I went closer, and there was this metal ball lying there next to a bit of a hollow about three feet away.” It turned out to be a titanium alloy sphere, marked with Russian labels. O’Sullivan hefted the 30 pound sphere and carried in his lap on the drive back to the farmhouse to call the police.At least one of the spheres spent the night in jail after its apprehension by local police. John Lindores, who found the sphere on his property, told The Press the police “took it to Ashburton Jail and locked it up for the night.”
Under international treaty – signed not long before Kosmos 482’s ill-fated launch, at that – the spheres still belonged to the Soviet Union and should have been returned. But the USSR disavowed all knowledge of the spaceship parts scattered across Ashburton and the surrounding area. That left them as bizarre souvenirs for the stunned Kiwis on whose property they’d landed. Lindores loaned his, permanently, to the Ashburton Aviation Museum. O’Sullivan has kept his “in a corner of his lounge” for the last 53 years, after a failed attempt to sell it on eBay.
Yellow lines: ground track before the centre of the re-entry window. Green lines: ground track after the centre of the re-entry window. Red: overflights inside European countries and overseas territories.Note: the possible re-entry locations lie anywhere along the yellow and green lines. The re-entry point is considered to be at an altitude of 80 km.
Of course, at this point the uncertainty in the forecast is still +/- 4 hours. Yet, the uncertainty window has now decreased to the point that we can rule out certain parts of the world: Africa, with the exception of the extreme NW and NE parts, is safe. So is Japan, and the NW part of the USA.The map below gives the trajectory of the object over the current uncertainty window of the TUDAT reentry forecast (red dots are cities with over 1 million inhabitants, between latitude 52 N and 52 S). The spacecraft can reenter anywhere along the blue line:
Our latest TUDAT #reentry forecast for the #Kosmos 482 Descent Craft:10 May 6:30 +/- 4.1h UTCLink to blogpost with details:https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2025/04/kosmos-842-descent-craft-reentry.htmlThe uncertainty has now become small enought to exclude certain areas.Japan, the NW of the USA, and most of Africa (except extreme NW and NE) are now safe.The spacecraft can come down anywhere on the blue lines in the map:round-up of current forecasts from various sources:TUDAT: 10 May 06:30 ± 4.1 hr UTC.CSpOC TIP: 10 May 05:52 ± 6.1 hr UTCESA: 10 May 06:00 ± 4.8 hr UTCEU-SST: 10 May 06:07 ± 4.8 hr UTCAerospace Corp: 10 May 05:54 ± 4.0 hr UTC
Kosmos-428-SA has most likely reentered by now. Have not heard any reports of observations. Space Force will at some point issue a reentry estimate - nothing yet.Correction - there appears to be an observation from Peru around 0540 - 0545 UTC. So had not reentered prior to that.
Status 10 May 08:35 CESTThe descent craft was seen by radar systems over Germany at approximately 04:30 UTC and 06:04 UTC, corresponding to 06:30 CEST and 08:04 CEST, respectively. There is no further update on the estimated reentry window as we are now roughly in the centre, corresponding to the red dot labeled COIW (centre of impact window) in the ground track track chart below.
Latest TU Delft TUDAT #reentry forecast for the #Kosmos Descent Craft: 10 May 6:39 +- 1.5 h UTC
A roundup of current reentry forecasts from various sources (each running their own reentry model) retrieved 10 May 6:15 UTC:TUDAT10 May06:39± 1.5 hr UTCCSpOC TIP10 May05:32± 1.0 hr UTC ESA's Space Debris Office 10 May 06:00 ± 2.4 hr UTC EU-SST10 May05:50± 6.1 hr UTCAerospace Corp10 May06:12± 3.0 hr UTC
Status 10 May 09:56 CESTAs the descent craft was not spotted by radar over Germany at the expected 07:32 UTC / 09:32 CEST pass, it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred.
On 10 May 2025, an uncontrolled reentry took place of the Cosmos-482 descent craft, a Venera landing capsule that launched 53 years earlier. It was meant to land on Venus, but its launcher never escaped Earth’s gravity.The Soviet-era object was last spotted over Germany at 08:04 CEST on 10 May by our colleagues at Fraunhofer FHR as it passed through the sky over their antenna. Because the descent craft was not spotted one orbit later, at the expected 09:32 CEST pass, the reentry can be assumed to have occurred between these two times.A precise time and location of its reentry have so far not been identified. We have not received any reports on direct visual observations of the final reentry or of any impacts on ground.This GIF combines images of Cosmos-482 tumbling through space on Thursday 8 May, about 2 days before reentry. The overlay image in the GIF helps to identify the orientation and what is reflected in the radar image.The images were captured by the Tracking and Imaging Radar (TIRA) at the Fraunhofer Institute for High Frequency Physics and Radar Techniques FHR in Germany. The TIRA-acquired radar tracks helped to improve the knowledge of its orbit and finetune our reentry predictions.
