Statistics of crewed launches

[JSz]

The history of U.S. manned launches is very heterogeneous in contrast to Soviet/Russian ones, due to the greater number of diverse space programs.

I tried to see how this diversity is reflected in the statistics of the number of manned launches. You can see the result in the accompanying chart.

[JSz]

I am attaching the numbers of manned launches (orbital only) by year with a split between the three countries that have such competences and finances. In 2024 such launches have already completed, so a summary can be made.

In 2024, there were as many as nine such launches: two each by China and Russia, and as many as five by the USA. The last time there were so many was in 2009 (15 years ago), and the last time there were more was in 1997. In contrast, the record was 11 launches in 1985, but that was in the great days of the shuttles: 9 shuttles and 2 Soyuz.

Projections for 2025 are good, but surely as usual - much of the planning and announcements will not be realised...

[AmigaClone]

I am attaching the numbers of manned launches (orbital only) by year with a split between the three countries that have such competences and finances. In 2024 such launches have already completed, so a summary can be made.

In 2024, there were as many as nine such launches: two each by China and Russia, and as many as five by the USA. The last time there were so many was in 2009 (15 years ago), and the last time there were more was in 1997. In contrast, the record was 11 launches in 1985, but that was in the great days of the shuttles: 9 shuttles and 2 Soyuz.

Projections for 2025 are good, but surely as usual - much of the planning and announcements will not be realised...

There were times when it appeared that a 10th crewed launch could occur in 2024 either Axion4 or Fram2.

At the moment it appears likely for there to be 6 crew rotation flights (2 Dragon, 2 Soyuz, and 2 Shenzhou). In addition there could be up to four private Dragon flights with Axion4 and Axion5 going to the ISS, Fram2 into polar LEO, and Vast-1 to the proposed Haven-1 space station. There is a remote chance for India to have it's first crewed launch in 2025 as well. It's not impossible for a third US CCP (crew rotation) mission to the ISS to also happen.

Personally I would guess we are likely to see 8-10 crewed orbital missions. Besides the 6 crew rotation missions above, I see Axion4 and either Fram2 or Vast-1 as the most likely to occur with the other 2 private Dragon missions being the next most likely. I would give the Indian crewed orbital mission and a third CCP mission less than 5% combined chance of happening.

[JSz]

That's right: in addition to six launches with space station crew exchanges, there are chances for Crew Dragon private flights, but rather only Axiom-4, as we don't hear that any crew preparations for Fram-2 or Vast-1 have already started.

Going further: in 2025, Axiom-5, Polaris II or, on the other side, the tourist Soyuz are very unrealistic. It usually takes about a year between the announcement of some private mission and its actual launch.

Gaganyaan is indeed pushing back, but perhaps Artemis II will come to realisation in 2025 after all?

So I would bet on that 7-8 is fairly certain, and what's above will be a pleasant surprise.

[DanClemmensen]

That's right: in addition to six launches with space station crew exchanges, there are chances for Crew Dragon private flights, but rather only Axiom-4, as we don't hear that any crew preparations for Fram-2 or Vast-1 have already started.

Going further: in 2025, Axiom-5, Polaris II or, on the other side, the tourist Soyuz are very unrealistic. It usually takes about a year between the announcement of some private mission and its actual launch.

Gaganyaan is indeed pushing back, but perhaps Artemis II will come to realisation in 2025 after all?

So I would bet on that 7-8 is fairly certain, and what's above will be a pleasant surprise.

As a long shot (less than 5%): NASA requires another Starliner CFT and Boeing does it instead of terminating Starliner.

[JSz]

Indeed: there is also the Starliner ...

We can possibly say that 2025 is already a record year as far as expectations for the number of manned orbital launches are concerned .

[Blackstar]

NASA doesn't use the term "manned spaceflight" because 50% of the population is female. Now probably 99% of the members of this forum are male, but I suspect that most of the members know a few females.

[AmigaClone]

I will admit to forgetting about Arthemis II in my previous post. It appears that mission might be delayed from the currently planned September 2025 launch date.

There was a recent livestream with Jared Isaacman where he mentioned Polaris II would likely be about two years away.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55803.msg2637681#msg2637681

I agree that for the sake of consistency that the title of this topic be changed to 'Statistics of crewed launches'.

[JSz]

Sure: I have renamed the thread.

EDIT. But probably ineffective. I'm afraid I don't have the authority...

[JSz]

The journal "Scientific American" published a very interesting article about changes in the demographics of astronauts, or rather people who have taken space flights: "Everyone Who Has Ever Been to Space, Charted. Space traveler demographics have shifted over time" by Clara Moskowitz and Zane Wolf, edited by Jen Christiansen and Clara Moskowitz.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/everyone-who-has-ever-been-to-space-charted/

In general: the average age of astronauts has been getting higher and higher over the years, and has varied a lot in the last few years, mainly as a result of Blue Origin's tourist activities and New Shepard rides.

[AmigaClone]

That's right: in addition to six launches with space station crew exchanges, there are chances for Crew Dragon private flights, but rather only Axiom-4, as we don't hear that any crew preparations for Fram-2 or Vast-1 have already started.

Going further: in 2025, Axiom-5, Polaris II or, on the other side, the tourist Soyuz are very unrealistic. It usually takes about a year between the announcement of some private mission and its actual launch.

Gaganyaan is indeed pushing back, but perhaps Artemis II will come to realisation in 2025 after all?

So I would bet on that 7-8 is fairly certain, and what's above will be a pleasant surprise.

It appears that aside from the six crew rotation missions, there might only be two other orbital crewed missions this year (2025).

At this point, for 2026, my expectations are for a total of nine crewed orbital missions. Six would involve crew rotations. The three other possible crewed missions are Artemis II, Axion-5, and Vast-1.

Some other future orbital missions, such as Gaganyaan-4, have already been confirmed not to launch before 2027.

[AmigaClone]

The journal "Scientific American" published a very interesting article about changes in the demographics of astronauts, or rather people who have taken space flights: "Everyone Who Has Ever Been to Space, Charted. Space traveler demographics have shifted over time" by Clara Moskowitz and Zane Wolf, edited by Jen Christiansen and Clara Moskowitz.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/everyone-who-has-ever-been-to-space-charted/

In general: the average age of astronauts has been getting higher and higher over the years, and has varied a lot in the last few years, mainly as a result of Blue Origin's tourist activities and New Shepard rides.

I wish they had made two more graphs similar to the first one splitting the orbital and suborbital age range.

[JSz]

I have updated my chart showing the number of crewed orbital launches in individual years. There will be no more such launches this year.

I have divided the entire period from 1961 to 2025 into three intervals, as this division is immediately apparent. However, the Soviet and Russian programmes cannot be periodised in the same way as the American one. At first, the Russians also pursued a lunar programme, as did the United States, but after its failure, they began to say that they had never had such a programme and smoothly transitioned in 1971 to the Salyut/Almaz, Mir and ISS crewed orbital station programmes.

The fact that Russian crewed programmes since 1967 have been based exclusively on Soyuz spacecraft has also had a significant impact on the stability of their entire crewed programme.