Total Members Voted: 320
Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 pm
Quote from: EgorBotts on 03/19/2017 01:08 pmAs of March 19, after 3 orbital flightsNumber of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)To me, this is less of a contest of who is "right" (with wonderful prizes!) than it is a way to harness the wisdom of crowds to see what the consensus is.Our collective impression is between 13 and 14 launches this year. It is not yet the end of the first quarter of the year. It's pretty early to be adjusting projections for the year.You can do all the extrapolation and calculation and discussion of the two failures, description of launch pads, tracking of first stages, and contemplating on reuse, but each of us has read about all of these and formed our various opinion. Yours is just as valid as the other 300+ that were entered into the poll.(those of you who didn't vote, you are just "the critic". Get in the ring next time.)YMMV, as may your opinion
As of March 19, after 3 orbital flightsNumber of people who were wrong: 2 (0,6%)Number of people who are right at this date: 0 (0,0%)Assuming anything can happend, number of people that could still be right: 318 (99,4%)Maximum number of people that could be right at end of year: 45 (14.1%)
My estimate still stands at 23.6 by 1 June (4 more total in March/April/May from LC39A only)8 in June thru September (2 per month - 1 LC39A and 1 LC4E)9 in Oct thru Dec (3 per month - 1 LC39A, 1 SLC-40, and 1 LC4E)
From the perspective of launch-site availability, this seems reasonable. But I suspect that payload availability would then become the bottleneck at around 18 flights. I seriously doubt that SpaceX would continue to fly empty rockets, or that their customers would be able to bring payloads forward from 2018.Note that when SpaceX has its own near-infinite supply of small communications satellites to launch, payload availability will cease to be such a bottleneck -- they can keep up a regular launch cadence regardless of whether their customers are ready or not.
The new info on launching cadence capability is 2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)1 / month on SLC4E1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/22/2017 01:52 pmThe new info on launching cadence capability is 2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)1 / month on SLC4E1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)So in March/April/May that is a total of 6 plus the 2 in Jan/Feb would bring the total at 1 June to 8For June thru September add to the 2 / mo of LC39A a launch cadence out of SLC4E of 1/month that is 3 / month and 12 for the period and now total at 1 Oct at 20.Now add LC40 at 1.5 / month while decreasing the launch rate from LC39A to also 1.5 /month (to handle the more complex launches of FH and Dargon2) and to that the 1 /month of SLC4E for a rate of 4 /month for another 12 puts the total for the year at 33.So my estimate earlier of 23 may be conservative.The new info though has to bounce off of reality and that is why I am sticking to my 23.Once LC40 is operational, the cadence at LC39A may also be throttled by work to prepare for FH and HSF prior to flying any of those missions.Sadly I did not vote in the poll because I was not checking the poll section.
The new info on launching cadence capability is 2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)1 / month on SLC4E1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/22/2017 01:52 pmThe new info on launching cadence capability is 2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)1 / month on SLC4E1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16. Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.
Quote from: EgorBotts on 03/22/2017 03:49 pmQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 03/22/2017 01:52 pmThe new info on launching cadence capability is 2 / month on LC39A (demonstarted capability in March with also range scheduled launches 2 in April and 2 in May for ER)1 / month on SLC4E1.5 /month on LC40 (Possible HIF limitations)I'm sorry but no, the 2/month is not valid, at least for now. I perfectly know that there is the SES-10 launch currently planned at end of march, but it is still planned, not launched. As seen dozens of times, everything can happend.So, not demonstrated. As of now, best turnaround for LC39 is february 19 -> march 16. Same remark for 1/month on Vandenberg pad. SpaceX never actually launched at this rate on west pad for now.Seems like you're suggesting we only predict the past.
...I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
Quote from: EgorBotts on 03/19/2017 04:33 pm...I also happend to like the beauty of statistics VS real world. There is the "normal course" of events leading to around 13 flights, and there is real life. Anything can happen, lets say we end up having the end of the world tomorrow, nobody would have been right on this poll. Lets agree that would be a shame Nobody being right on this poll, or the end of the world?
Quote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 01:50 amIf SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year Well at least we now know who voted for that.
Quote from: Paul451 on 03/31/2017 01:58 amQuote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 01:50 amIf SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year Well at least we now know who voted for that.I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.
Quote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 11:07 amQuote from: Paul451 on 03/31/2017 01:58 amQuote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 01:50 amIf SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year Well at least we now know who voted for that.I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.Think about it.