Author Topic: ABL Space Systems: General Thread  (Read 141152 times)

Offline Davidthefat

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Am I cynical in thinking that a lot of these firms are engineers wanting to play with VC money to built what their heart desires? Not aiming to actually going commercial, but have a lot of fun developing systems from ground up where younger engineers probably won't have the opportunity to do at more established firms? Without the need to actually have capital themselves to start, but they merely need to convince VCs to invest in them.

Also in the small chance of them actually going commercial, or even getting bought out, it's not too bad of a deal IMHO. All in the meanwhile taking in salaries higher than what they were getting in a regular engineering job sounds good too.

Offline vaporcobra

Am I cynical in thinking that a lot of these firms are engineers wanting to play with VC money to built what their heart desires? Not aiming to actually going commercial, but have a lot of fun developing systems from ground up where younger engineers probably won't have the opportunity to do at more established firms? Without the need to actually have capital themselves to start, but they merely need to convince VCs to invest in them.

Also in the small chance of them actually going commercial, or even getting bought out, it's not too bad of a deal IMHO. All in the meanwhile taking in salaries higher than what they were getting in a regular engineering job sounds good too.

There's a strong chance that that is part of the motivation, especially for late entrants with no real novel contribution to make. With ABL, I would fully understand a decision to leave SpaceX and start one's own company to improve pay, work hours, and autonomy. But I really doubt founding a new rocket company and building an entirely new launch vehicle is appreciably less work than engineering grid fins...

Offline Davidthefat

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But I really doubt founding a new rocket company and building an entirely new launch vehicle is appreciably less work than engineering grid fins...

It's definitely a lot more work, but I feel it's what a lot of engineers want (at least I do). To have a big budget and the freedom to develop whatever I want with it. You can focus on the "fun stuff" like propulsion and subcontract out the tanks to bring in to show that they are working on a whole vehicle to the board and public. All in the while focusing on whatever they feel like is the most fun, most likely propulsion. Make fire, get more investments. So on and so forth.

Offline Lar

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Also in the small chance of them actually going commercial, or even getting bought out, it's not too bad of a deal IMHO. All in the meanwhile taking in salaries higher than what they were getting in a regular engineering job sounds good too.

VCs tend not to approve of paying lavish salaries, they like to see investment by the principals. Bank comes if there is a buy out.
« Last Edit: 03/06/2018 02:19 am by Lar »
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Offline john smith 19

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There's a strong chance that that is part of the motivation, especially for late entrants with no real novel contribution to make. With ABL, I would fully understand a decision to leave SpaceX and start one's own company to improve pay, work hours, and autonomy. But I really doubt founding a new rocket company and building an entirely new launch vehicle is appreciably less work than engineering grid fins...
It's an excellent deal for the leaders.  You set your own salary and stock options if it actually succeeds.

Time will tell if the founders self belief in themselves (and you'd better have a lot of that) is matched by their ability to execute, or if they are another example of the Dunning Kruger effect.  :(
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Offline ChrisWilson68

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I imagine SpaceX’s backlog will continue to grow and timelines for launching as a secondary payload will continue to increase (though price will likely decrease)

Only if SpaceX very badly fails will their backlog grow.  Betting SpaceX will fail hasn't been a good bet in the past.

Offline Toast

I imagine SpaceX’s backlog will continue to grow and timelines for launching as a secondary payload will continue to increase (though price will likely decrease)

Only if SpaceX very badly fails will their backlog grow.  Betting SpaceX will fail hasn't been a good bet in the past.

Agreed. A few years ago concern about backlog would have been well-founded, but their cadence has been steadily increasing with more big jumps to come as Block 5 and Boca Chica come online.

I think ABL's system is interesting, and subcontracting components is probably a smart call for a small startup looking to get going fast. But I do worry that the smallsat launcher market is getting overcrowded. The various proposed mega constellations could make or break them--it may give smallsat launchers a boost as they win launches to replace individual defective satellites, but it may destroy their business proposition as more frequent larger launches provide more rideshare options to more orbits on a regular basis.

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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If they are price competitive and don't have the fixed costs because they're only assembling, they might be able to survive with half a dozen launches per year...

But only if they are not the only customers to their suppliers.

Offline Lar

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I imagine SpaceX’s backlog will continue to grow and timelines for launching as a secondary payload will continue to increase (though price will likely decrease)

Only if SpaceX very badly fails will their backlog grow.  Betting SpaceX will fail hasn't been a good bet in the past.

Indeed.

SpaceX naysayers have switched from "they'll never catch up on their backlog" to "what if they run out of backlog" ???
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Offline joek

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If Starlink deploys as planned there will be no shortage of SpaceX backlog.  Which may be an opening for others.  Will SpaceX devote more resources to launch Starlink at the expense of the general launch market because Starlink gets SpaceX where they want to go faster ($ for Mars)?

If every $ spent by SpaceX for Starlink launch has an ROI of $X (Starlink profit), and that same spend in the general launch market has an ROI of $.1X (LV services profit), where is SpaceX going to put their money?  What is going to be their priority?

We could see a situation where SpaceX has the capability to be the lowest cost general launch service provider, but chooses not to take that position (because they have bigger fish to fry).  Thus leaving a enough of that market to other providers.

Dangerous gamble for anyone, especially a start up.  Bank on SpaceX's failure in market X, or bank on SpaceX's success-focus in market Y which effectively removes them from market X of their own volition?  My head hurts.  Good like gaming that out.
« Last Edit: 03/07/2018 01:37 am by joek »

Offline Robotbeat

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That's an opportunity open only until BFR works. So you have maybe a year or two in between when SpaceX starts deploying Starlink and when BFR starts launching. And even then, Falcon 9 block 5 can do 24 hour turnaround. Combined with Falcon Heavy block 5 (which has about 3 times the payload while only disposing of the upper stage), and SpaceX may be able to launch their initial satellite constellation just fine without introducing a long backlog.

But it is true that the lower end of the market was left open by SpaceX ditching Falcon 1/1e.
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Offline joek

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It is an opportunity open as long as SpaceX chooses to put its resources anywhere other than the general LV services market--should it do so in the future (obviously not now).

No one is likely to get rich in the general LV market any time soon (if ever).  SpaceX appears to be banking on Starlink.  For every $ of investment and every launch slot available, what would be your priority and where would you put your resources?

Where do you think SpaceX will put those $ and launch slots?  If Starlink is what SpaceX thinks will get them to where they want-need to go, that is where they will focus.  Even if it means ceding the general LV market to others.

Offline Robotbeat

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If you can launch every week on average from each pad and have three launch sites (4 pads), then you can launch one or two hundred times per year and can do plenty of Starlink launches with plenty of room for anyone else. But no longer on topic.
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Offline joek

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If you can launch every week on average from each pad and have three launch sites (4 pads), then you can launch one or two hundred times per year and can do plenty of Starlink launches with plenty of room for anyone else. But no longer on topic.

Yeah, right... Put your foot in it and then cop out that it's, no longer on topic.  Whatever you say.  The question is not what could you do, but what gets the most bang for the buck.  Specifically, where would you put your time-effort-money if you were SpaceX?  It is a matter of priorities based on ROI.  If you don't get that, then you don't get business or how business decisions get made.  Does not matter what could be done.  Only matters what gets SpaceX the best ROI to get them where they want to go (MARS).

Offline ringsider

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They popped up a year or so ago, but the website features now some images of isogrid production and the team has grown to about 20 people, mostly experienced SpaceX graduates:-

https://www.ablspacesystems.com/

Offline HMXHMX

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They popped up a year or so ago, but the website features now some images of isogrid production and the team has grown to about 20 people, mostly experienced SpaceX graduates:-

https://www.ablspacesystems.com/


Good find.  I think this is a team that looks pretty good – they've done real things, so good luck to them.  But the vehicle concept looks way too vanilla for my taste, and too small.

Offline brickmack

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Says they're getting engines from Ursa Major too

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Good find.  I think this is a team that looks pretty good – they've done real things, so good luck to them.  But the vehicle concept looks way too vanilla for my taste, and too small.

The engines are ORSC! That's hardly vanilla for a startup. You have to start somewhere. By starting small means they might actually achieve launch. Launch price is about $14M for 650 to 900 kg, depending on orbit.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline HMXHMX

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Good find.  I think this is a team that looks pretty good – they've done real things, so good luck to them.  But the vehicle concept looks way too vanilla for my taste, and too small.

The engines are ORSC! That's hardly vanilla for a startup. You have to start somewhere. By starting small means they might actually achieve launch. Launch price is about $14M for 650 to 900 kg, depending on orbit.

But it is Ursa making the engines and they’ve both been at it a while and have functioning engines on the stand. I’ve been to visit them and came away impressed.

Offline Patchouli

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They popped up a year or so ago, but the website features now some images of isogrid production and the team has grown to about 20 people, mostly experienced SpaceX graduates:-

https://www.ablspacesystems.com/


Seems the max payload is 1200kg I wonder if it could lift something along the lines of a modernized Mercury capsule?

Probably would not be practical as it would be a very limited vehicle like the original Mercury but I can see an adventurer with money wanting to try it.
« Last Edit: 12/10/2018 06:19 pm by Patchouli »

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