Quote from: realnouns on 07/26/2022 02:27 pmAlso demand for that many flights is a consideration. Pretty soon SpaceX will have the currently approved Starlink network complete. What will they be delivering to orbit with F9/FH if the 2nd Gen Starlink will fly exclusively on Starship?As of today 26 July 2022 14:40 SpaceX has approval for two phases totaling 11926 Starlink satellites.Phase 1 is nearly 60% complete and will require roughly 36 launches totaling 1732 satellites to complete.Phase 2 is has not been started. It will require roughly 3750 satellites to be launched by November 2024. Depending on the Starlink version that would involve 75 F9 Starlink 1.5 launches or between 50 and 75 Starlink 2.0 Starship launches (using between 50 and 80 satellites per Starship).One possible limit on haw many F9 launches are needed in a year would be the number of Starlinks manufactured a month even if some of the shells are initially filled with Starlink 1.5.
Also demand for that many flights is a consideration. Pretty soon SpaceX will have the currently approved Starlink network complete. What will they be delivering to orbit with F9/FH if the 2nd Gen Starlink will fly exclusively on Starship?
I was looking at that yesterday. The phase 2 quantities and date of having half deployed by Nov 2024 would seem to explain a huge urgency for Starship and getting it functional.
Starlink Gen1 - is the currently approved portion of Starlink. It has two portions.QuotePhase 1 with 5 orbital shells currently about 60% of the planned satellites are in orbit (2616 our of 4408) It needs 38 launches and could be completed, as early as a year before its 'halfway mark' date of April 2024. At that point, Shell 1 would be comprised (at least mostly) of Starlink V1.0, while the other three will be comprised of Starlink 1.5QuoteThe closest thing that I have seen to something official about SpaceX's plans for Phase 2 is a comment along the line that changes made to Phase 1 would not affect the approved V-band satellites or the proposed constellation. That would include 7500 satellites in 3 shells. If launched, it likely would be launched using Falcon 9s to meet the deadline of having half the constellation in orbit by November 2024.
Phase 1 with 5 orbital shells currently about 60% of the planned satellites are in orbit (2616 our of 4408) It needs 38 launches and could be completed, as early as a year before its 'halfway mark' date of April 2024. At that point, Shell 1 would be comprised (at least mostly) of Starlink V1.0, while the other three will be comprised of Starlink 1.5
The closest thing that I have seen to something official about SpaceX's plans for Phase 2 is a comment along the line that changes made to Phase 1 would not affect the approved V-band satellites or the proposed constellation. That would include 7500 satellites in 3 shells. If launched, it likely would be launched using Falcon 9s to meet the deadline of having half the constellation in orbit by November 2024.
Starlink Gen2 - Is a proposed 30,000 satellite constellation that has not yet been approved by the FCC. This would use Starlink 2.x and need to be launched via a Starship. Due to the physical size of Starship 2.0, I guestimate only 50-80 satellites are likely to be launched at a time, likely closer to the lower range.
A Northrop spokeswoman told Reuters that the company purchased three Falcon 9 launches from Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch Cygnus capsules to the space station while Antares 330 is under development. Those Falcon 9 missions will launch in late 2023 and 2024.
QuoteA Northrop spokeswoman told Reuters that the company purchased three Falcon 9 launches from Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch Cygnus capsules to the space station while Antares 330 is under development. Those Falcon 9 missions will launch in late 2023 and 2024.https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/northrop-taps-rocket-startup-firefly-replace-antares-russian-engines-2022-08-08/Who thinks it will be developed on time so that no further SpaceX launches for Cygnus will be required?If SpaceX is launching both Dragons and Cygnus, will NASA tend to favour Dragon as there is less independent supplier about Cygnus or will NASA want to help maintain/return to being an independent supplier?
Quote from: crandles57 on 08/09/2022 03:17 pmQuoteA Northrop spokeswoman told Reuters that the company purchased three Falcon 9 launches from Elon Musk's SpaceX to launch Cygnus capsules to the space station while Antares 330 is under development. Those Falcon 9 missions will launch in late 2023 and 2024.https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/northrop-taps-rocket-startup-firefly-replace-antares-russian-engines-2022-08-08/Who thinks it will be developed on time so that no further SpaceX launches for Cygnus will be required?If SpaceX is launching both Dragons and Cygnus, will NASA tend to favour Dragon as there is less independent supplier about Cygnus or will NASA want to help maintain/return to being an independent supplier?I doubt NASA will favor Dragon. Cygnus and Cargo dragon have different capabilities. Cygnus uses the ISS berthing port, which can handle slightly larger cargo. Cargo Dragon uses the docking port and therefore competes for this resource with CCP flights. Cygnus has demonstrated the ability to reboost (and possibly desat?) the ISS, while Dragons would have difficulties with this.
SpaceX’s Jarrod McLachlan says the Transporter rideshare missions are fully booked for 2023 and getting full for 2024. But some movement in the manifest allows them to squeeze in latecomers. He adds that the company is working on rideshare configurations for Starship, but nothing to announce today.
1278-EX-ST-2022This STA is intended to cover final pre-launch RF verifications for a commercial spacecraft on Mission 1451. Test will be conducted inside the SpaceX Payload Processing Facility (PPF) at Cape Canaveral SFS using a ground-support antenna. Customer will transmit commands from the ground-support device and receive telemetry from the spacecraft to verify final flight configurations. This STA is not for flight operations.NET October 25
<snip>.... TMK only HTV and Dragon 1 had hatches as big as the CBM hatch and neither are flying now.
On the manifest list, Vandenberg launches to shell 3 of 46 sats are listed at ~16k same as for 53 sat launches. That surely cannot be correct.
Alex, how much does the BC surge draw resources away from this?
August 12, 20228:01 PM GMT+9Last Updated 44 min agoEXCLUSIVE Europe eyes Musk's SpaceX to replace Russian rocketsBy Tim Hepher and Joey RoulettePARIS, Aug 12 (Reuters) - The European Space Agency (ESA) has begun preliminary technical discussions with Elon Musk's SpaceX that could lead to the temporary use of its launchers after the Ukraine conflict blocked Western access to Russia's Soyuz rockets.The private American competitor to Europe's Arianespace has emerged as a key contender to plug a temporary gap alongside Japan and India, but final decisions depend on the still unresolved timetable for Europe's delayed Ariane 6 rocket.
Quote from: crandles57 on 08/10/2022 02:49 pmOn the manifest list, Vandenberg launches to shell 3 of 46 sats are listed at ~16k same as for 53 sat launches. That surely cannot be correct.Even a lot of the shell 4 flights need the mass adjusted down, I'll do it sometime
