Total Members Voted: 320
Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 pm
Quote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 11:07 amQuote from: Paul451 on 03/31/2017 01:58 amQuote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 01:50 amIf SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year Well at least we now know who voted for that.I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.Think about it.
Quote from: Paul451 on 03/31/2017 01:58 amQuote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 01:50 amIf SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year Well at least we now know who voted for that.I voted for 18, so less than the 2 flights per year.
Quote from: rockets4life97 on 03/31/2017 01:50 amIf SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year Well at least we now know who voted for that.
If SpaceX can pull off 2 flights a year for rest of the year
There is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement. I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the amazing people in me.
Quote from: rockets4life97 on 05/02/2017 02:26 pmThere is the potential for SpaceX to launch 6 sats in May and June. That would be a statement. I'm can't quite make up my mind whether I think it is possible. But I want SpaceX to pull it off - that is the amazing people in me.Lots of people are watching, to be sure:https://www.spaceintelreport.com/has-the-spacex-steamroller-finally-arrived
I agree with the can't-decide-if-it's-possible uncertainty because I'm not actually sure what the rate-limiting factor is at this stage...1. Launchpad turnaround?2. Range availability?3. New first stage production rate?4. Reused first stage recovery refurbishment rate? (probably not)5. New second stage production rate?6. Stage testing/transport rate?7. Mission-ending failure rate?8. Other?
fairing production rate?
I was predicting 6 by 1 June as a definite, 7 as likely and 8 as remotely possible. If you include 1 June then 7 is still likely. But looking ahead to the month of June there is a possible 4 launches during the month LC-39A CRS: 1 JuneBulgarisat: 15 JuneIntelsat 35e? 30 June (This is a possibility but may move out to the first few days in July prior to July 4)SLC 40 Irridium Next 2: 29 JuneSo the month could have four but likely just 3 launches.This would put the count at 9 for the 1st half of 2017. If the second half is just as busy then the low value fopr launches for the year would be 18. But even though FH will disrupt launch schedules for the east coast there will also be another pad back in operation. June 3 more Total to Date TtD: 9July 3 more TtD: 12Aug 4 More TtD: 16 (includes 2 launches from LC-39A, 1 from LC-40, and 1 on SCL-4E [Iridium])Sept 1 More TtD: 17 ( LC-39A is in rework for FH and CC, LC-40 is still gearing up, and SLC-4e is standing down for the month [Iridium every other month launch])Oct 2 More TtD: 19 (LC-39A still in rework, 1 on LC-40 + 1 on SLC-4E)Nov 3 More TtD: 22 (FH launch + 2 on LC-40)Dec 3 More TtD: 25 (1 LC-39A [CC demo] + 1 on LC-40 + 1 on SLC-4E)My prediction of 21 to 25 looks likely due to the capability and the number of sats ready to go. The final number of launches will ultimately depend on the LC-39A rework only taking the pad down for 60 days and there are no problems reactivating LC-40 by Aug.If the reactivation becomes Sept then the launches could drop by 2 to only 23 for the year. It would also move the CC demo flight into Jan 2018.
How many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?
Quote from: M.E.T. on 06/04/2017 06:36 pmHow many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely). Recent updates have shown DM-1 moving to 2018. It looks like CRS-13 (was Nov 1) may be moving to 2018 as well. It isn't clear how many payloads we think are flying in 2018 would be ready to fly in the 4th quarter of 2017.
We're now at 7 launches after CRS-11. SpaceX should surpass their previous annual record this month, yet we've barely dipped into the low tail end of predictions.
Quote from: M.E.T. on 06/04/2017 06:36 pmHow many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely).
Quote from: rockets4life97 on 06/04/2017 07:25 pmQuote from: M.E.T. on 06/04/2017 06:36 pmHow many F9 launches could they realistically cram into this year if they had two launchpads available in Florida from August onwards?The question would be payloads, not launchpad availability if both SLC-40 and LC-39A are operation from September onward (August is unlikely). Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line? Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months. Let's say SLC-40 is back up at the beginning of September, and let's be optimistic and say that mods and testing for Falcon Heavy take 2 months, with a late November/early December launch. That opens up LC-39A for other launches for the month of December. And even that seems very optimistic.So far this year, SpaceX is doing what they need to do. They're launching payloads, cutting down on scrubs and schedule slips, developing a steady cadence, and introducing operational reuse of first stages and Dragon capsules. One launch every 2 or 3 weeks without any unforced errors will make for a fantastic year.
Someone can - and undoubtedly will - correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't LC-39A go down for pad mods to accommodate Falcon Heavy after SLC-40 comes back on line? Even if everything is in place at LC-39A in terms of hardware needed for the modifications, and even if everything goes smoothly, LC-39A will be occupied with mods and tests for Falcon Heavy for at least a couple of months.
I just did a quick trend line to estimate their launch cadence based on their launch history to date. I get an estimated gap between launches in days for the nth launch = 367.23 * n^-0.851 (optimistically, excluding the gap after the CRS-7/AMOS 6) or 322.48 * n^-0.755 (pessimistically, including all data). By these estimates, they'll hit 17-21 launches this year. That looks pretty plausible with their current schedule, since they're aiming for their tenth launch in early July. Quick summary of data:YearOptimistic LaunchesEnd of Year CadencePessimistic LaunchesEnd of Year Cadence20172114171820183582413201955533102020834447
What is "end of year cadence" in this table?