Author Topic: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs (2023 released)  (Read 19668 times)

Offline rayleighscatter

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The GAO's report on NASA's major projects was recently released. It covers projects exceeding 250 million dollars in life cycle costs which is currently 12 existing projects and four in formulation. The only one missing is Commercial Crew which was left out of the report since it was written while the award challenge was going on.
The entire report can be seen on http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-320SP

edit/gongora: Attaching/linking other report years
2014 / 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019 / 2020
2021
2022
2023
« Last Edit: 05/31/2023 11:17 pm by gongora »

Online Blackstar

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #1 on: 03/28/2015 01:34 am »
The projects assessed are:

Project Assessments
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On
Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2
Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport (InSight)
James Webb Space Telescope   
Magnetospheric Multiscale   
Mars 2020   
NASA ISRO - Synthetic Aperture Radar   
Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2   
Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification-Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx)
Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle   
Soil Moisture Active and Passive   
Solar Probe Plus   
Space Launch System   
Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment   
Surface Water and Ocean Topography   
Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite

Offline AncientU

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #2 on: 03/29/2015 12:41 pm »
Digging through the report, I cannot find the explanation that SLS is a $7.02B project.  That is at least sunk cost to date, but if so, adding in Orion and JWST would break the graph.  How are the bottom-line figures to be interpreted?
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Offline rayleighscatter

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #3 on: 03/29/2015 01:59 pm »
Those numbers are the current estimates for the lifetime costs of the program (development cycle costs in this case I think as it doesn't have a defined lifespan like a probe or satellite). The report doesn't get into individual line item costs, as that would make any individual project into a 100 page report. It just highlights major aspects of the projects and potential issues moving forward in schedules and cost.

It does tell us that SLS had 2.674 Billion in formulation costs (early program), estimates of 7.021 Billion in development costs, with the largest contract being Boeing's Cost Plus Awards Contract for the core currently valued at 4.185 Billion out of a possible 4.389 Billion (They also note that this contract was originally awarded under Constellation and was later modified). I believe these are the estimates from beginning of program to EM-1 when it would switch from development to operations.

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #4 on: 03/30/2015 04:58 am »
JWST total cost still $8.8 billion. Nice to see some stability there finally.

Offline vulture4

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #5 on: 04/05/2015 05:56 pm »
I do not understand figure 10.It looks as though Commercial Crew is being eliminated in 2019.

Offline rayleighscatter

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #6 on: 04/05/2015 06:37 pm »
I do not understand figure 10.It looks as though Commercial Crew is being eliminated in 2019.
From 2018-2020 it probably transitions from development to operations which is a different (likely ISS related) budget.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #7 on: 04/06/2015 12:31 am »
I do not understand figure 10.It looks as though Commercial Crew is being eliminated in 2019.
From 2018-2020 it probably transitions from development to operations which is a different (likely ISS related) budget.

Yes, and you can see that in NASA's FY 2016 Budget Request, where Commercial Spaceflight (Commercial Crew) winds down to pretty much nothing in FY2020, and under the ISS budget the "ISS Crew and Cargo Transportation" line item increases starting in 2018.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online gongora

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Online Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #9 on: 05/01/2018 08:32 pm »
2018 report is out:
https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-18-280SP

One of the indicators I looked at for how well Bolden was doing as NASA Administrator was this chart:

NASA’s Major Project Portfolio Cost and Schedule Performance Deteriorated in 2018



Last year was HORRIBLE for NASA major projects! It looks like the wheels are coming off.

Was it directly attributable to NASA not having a NASA Administrator? Will Bridenstine be able to solve the core issues driving launch delays and get them down to where Bolden had them?

Bridenstine did not own the results of this GAO report, but he will own the results of the next one. Let's hope he understands how to do basic management, because NASA apparently needs that skill in a NASA Administrator right now...
« Last Edit: 05/01/2018 08:35 pm by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline AncientU

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #10 on: 05/01/2018 08:38 pm »
How much of that 2018 overrun was known earlier and not reported?  SLS, Orion, and JWST were all known to be slipping but Bolden smiled and passed, instead of letting the truth be known.
« Last Edit: 05/01/2018 08:39 pm by AncientU »
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Offline Star One

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #11 on: 05/01/2018 08:40 pm »
SpaceX and Boeing spacecraft may not become operational until 2020

Quote
A new report provides some insight into the challenges that SpaceX and Boeing are facing when it comes to flying commercial crew missions, and it also suggests both companies may be nearly two years away from reaching operational status for NASA.

The assessment of large projects at NASA, published on Tuesday by the US Government Accountability Office, found that certification of the private spacecraft for flying astronauts to the International Space Station may be delayed to December 2019 for SpaceX and February 2020 for Boeing.

"Both of the Commercial Crew Program's contractors have made progress developing their crew transportation systems, but delays persist as the contractors have had difficulty executing aggressive schedules," the report states.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/new-report-suggests-commercial-crew-program-likely-faces-further-delays/
« Last Edit: 05/01/2018 08:50 pm by gongora »

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #12 on: 06/15/2018 01:28 am »
Today was the Subcommittee on Space Hearing - NASA Cost and Schedule Overruns: Acquisition and Program Management Challenges. This is in response to the 10th annual Quick Look at the status of NASA's major projects by the GAO (see earlier post).

https://www.youtube.com/embed/S-m48dGFJDE

An article about the hearing at Gizmodo:

Congressional Subcommittee Grills NASA on Skyrocketing Project Cost Overruns

From the article:

Quote
“Performance has worsened after years of following a general positive trend,” testified Cristina T. Chaplain, the director of Contracting and National Security Acquisitions at GAO, at the hearing. The reasons, she said, had to do with “risky management decisions, unforeseen technical challenges—some avoidable and some not—and workmanship errors.”
« Last Edit: 06/15/2018 01:33 am by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #13 on: 06/15/2018 01:52 am »
The hearing made C-SPAN3 today, too.
(Playing at the time of this post)
https://www.c-span.org/video/?447011-1/hearing-focuses-nasa-cost-overruns
« Last Edit: 06/15/2018 01:54 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Jim

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #14 on: 06/16/2018 03:30 pm »

Was it directly attributable to NASA not having a NASA Administrator? Will Bridenstine be able to solve the core issues driving launch delays and get them down to where Bolden had them?


Has nothing to do with the Administrator.

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #15 on: 06/16/2018 10:43 pm »

Was it directly attributable to NASA not having a NASA Administrator? Will Bridenstine be able to solve the core issues driving launch delays and get them down to where Bolden had them?


Has nothing to do with the Administrator.

What is your guess as to the reason?
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online gongora

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Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #17 on: 04/29/2020 06:33 pm »
https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-20-405

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1255564148097912838

Quote
Oof. New report from GAO on NASA's major programs finds: "We expect cost increases and schedule delays for major programs to get worse." This work does not consider COVID-19 effects, either.

From the report:

Quote
The cost performance of NASA’s portfolio of major projects has worsened for the third consecutive year, while the average schedule delay has decreased. Since we last reported in May 2019, cost growth has increased from 27.6 percent to approximately 31 percent. The average launch delay decreased from 13 months to approximately 12 months. Our analysis shows that NASA’s cost and schedule performance is expected to deteriorate as a result of several factors, including likely Artemis I delays and understated cost growth for the Orion and SLS programs. According to NASA officials, the partial government shutdown that occurred between December 2018 and January 2019 did not affect projects’ cost and schedule baselines, but these officials identified varying other effects including the use of cost and schedule reserves. Looking forward, programs that will be part of NASA’s plans to conduct a lunar landing in 2024 will begin to enter the portfolio and present additional cost and schedule risks as NASA works toward this aggressive target date.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2020 06:38 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Online Coastal Ron

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Re: GAO Annual Assesment on NASA large scale programs.
« Reply #18 on: 04/29/2020 07:38 pm »
The trend lines don't look good for Bridenstine. Cost growth and schedule delays have both increased for major programs during the Trump administration.
« Last Edit: 04/29/2020 07:41 pm by Coastal Ron »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Ouch

twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1255607941786451968

Quote
This seems like it isn't good. The new GAO report on NASA's big programs includes this nugget on the SLS rocket: "Program officials indicated that one of the top remaining technical risks to the green run test is that the core stage may develop leaks when it is filled with fuel."

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1255608404644683776

Quote
Let's be honest, if you take nine years and ~$10 billion to design and build a large fuel tank, one of your very highest priorities should be that it ... not leak.

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