Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1v/Volga - Kosmos 2558 - Plesetsk 43/4 - 1 August 2022 (20:25 UTC)  (Read 12956 times)

Online Nicolas PILLET

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According to NK forum, a launch of Soyuz-2.1v is scheduled for tomorrow from Plesetsk, with a 14F150 satellite.
« Last Edit: 08/05/2022 08:56 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Re: Soyz-2.1v - Cosmos - Plesetsk - 1st August 2022
« Reply #1 on: 08/01/2022 07:34 am »
NOTAMs:

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jul-2022/0119.html

Quote
271730 UTC JUL 22
NAVAREA XX 118/22
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. ROCKET CARRIER ELEMENTS FALLING 2000 TO 2130 UTC DAILY
01 TO 05 AUG
NAVIGATION PROHIBITED IN
TERRITORIAL WATERS DANGEROUS OUTSIDE
IN AREA BOUNDED BY: 70-18.0N 033-49.0E,
70-12.0N 034-08.0E, 69-54.0N 034-43.0E,
69-33.0N 034-47.0E, 69-25.0N 034-15.0E,
69-35.0N 033-37.0E, 69-53.0N 033-05.0E,
70-12.0N 033-11.0E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 052230 UTC AUG 22.=
NNNN

https://i.postimg.cc/wTfFq8C9/Barents-Nav-warn.jpg

272000Z JUL 22
HYDROARC 176/22(42).
BARENTS SEA.
RUSSIA.
DNC 22.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   2000Z TO 2130Z DAILY 01 THRU 05 AUG
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   70-18.00N 033-49.00E, 70-12.00N 034-08.00E,
   69-54.00N 034-43.00E, 69-33.00N 034-47.00E,
   69-25.00N 034-15.00E, 69-35.00N 033-37.00E,
   69-53.00N 033-05.00E, 70-12.00N 033-11.00E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 052230Z AUG 22.

Like its predecessors (Kosmos-2519 and 2542), this 14F150 Nivelir satellite is likely to deploy a subsatellite which in turn will fire what has been described by US intelligence sources as a "projectile". It will also  be interesting to see if this one is going to make close flybys of a US reconnaissance satellite like Kosmos-2542 and its subsatellite Kosmos-2543.

Offline satcomopsuk

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Re: Soyz-2.1v - Cosmos - Plesetsk - 1st August 2022
« Reply #2 on: 08/01/2022 09:38 am »
I have put the two graphics up to help visualise the launch track....

Offline zubenelgenubi

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If the launch is successful, the satellite should receive the designation Kosmos 2558.
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Launched at 2025UTC.

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https://www.interfax.ru/russia/854824
Google translate:
Quote
Soyuz-2.1v rocket with a military satellite launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome

Moscow. August 1. INTERFAX.RU - A Soyuz-2.1v light-class rocket launched on Monday evening from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, it will put into orbit a spacecraft designed for the Russian Defense Ministry, the department of information and mass communications of the military department told reporters on Friday.
"On Monday, August 1, at 23:25 Moscow time, from the State Test Cosmodrome of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation (Plesetsk Cosmodrome), a combat crew of the Space Forces of the Aerospace Forces successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1v light-class launch vehicle with space apparatus (KA) developed in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Defense," the message says.

It is noted that the pre-launch operations and the launch of the rocket took place in the normal mode. The launch and flight of the rocket was controlled by means of a ground-based automated control complex.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation recalled that flight tests of the Soyuz-2 space rocket system began at Plesetsk on November 8, 2004. This rocket replaced the Soyuz-U, which were operated at the northern cosmodrome from 1973 to 2012. During this period, 435 Soyuz-U launches were carried out from Plesetsk, about 430 spacecraft for various purposes were put into orbit.

Offline Rondaz

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Soyuz-2.1v rocket with military satellite launched from Plesetsk.

A Soyuz-2.1v light-class rocket was launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome on Monday evening.

23:39 08/01/2022

MOSCOW, August 1 - RIA Novosti. The Soyuz-2.1v light-class rocket launched on Monday evening from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, it will put into orbit a spacecraft developed for the Russian Defense Ministry, the department of information and mass communications of the military department told reporters on Friday.

"On Monday, August 1, at 23.25 (Moscow time) from the State Test Cosmodrome of the Ministry of Defense of Russia (Plesetsk Cosmodrome ), the combat crew of the Space Forces successfully launched a Soyuz-2.1v light-class launch vehicle with a spacecraft developed in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Defense ", the message says.

It is noted that the pre-launch operations and the launch of the rocket took place in the normal mode. The launch and flight of the rocket was controlled by a ground-based automated control system. Other details are not given.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation recalled that flight tests of the Soyuz-2 space rocket system began at Plesetsk on November 8, 2004. This rocket replaced the Soyuz-U, which were operated at the northern cosmodrome from 1973 to 2012.

During this period, 435 Soyuz-U launches were carried out from Plesetsk, about 430 spacecraft for various purposes were put into orbit.

https://ria.ru/20220801/raketa-1806550230.html

Offline Rondaz

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Russian military satellite launched at 2025 UTC from Plesetsk on Soyuz-2-1v rocket; expected to be codenamed Kosmos-2558 on reaching orbit.

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1554208354800730114

Offline Rondaz

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#Soyuz-2-1v rocket launches a military payload from Plesetsk.

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/1554207604641075201

Offline B. Hendrickx

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http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Aug-2022/0010.html

Quote
From: Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Mon, 1 Aug 2022 22:15:10 +0200

The orbital plane of USA 326 passes over Plesetsk at 20:25 UTC.

This is exactly the moment that Kosmos-2558 was launched, so there is a good chance that USA 326 will become its target of observation. USA 326 is a National Reconnaissance Office satellite that was launched by a Falcon-9 last February and placed into a 512x512 km, 97.4° orbit. Let's wait and see what the orbital parameters of Kosmos-2558 are. The NOTAMs pointed to a launch in a northerly direction, so this could well turn out to be a match.

Offline Rondaz

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And a video by Maria Kiryanenko from Plesetsk..

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1554221242105880576

Offline ace5

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Soyuz 2.1v

Offline zubenelgenubi

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I guess that we'll figure out which of the two Plesetsk Soyuz-2 launch pads was used when they release launch campaign photos or video.
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Apparently launch success confirmed.

https://www.interfax.ru/world/854828

I guess that we'll figure out which of the two Plesetsk Soyuz-2 launch pads was used when they release launch campaign photos or video.

I don’t think they have qualified any other pad than 43/4 for the 2.1v.
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Online FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1554316928927375360

Quote
Based on the initial TLEs, in its current orbit Kosmos-2558 wil pass within 80 km of NRO's USA 326 satellite at about 1450 UTC Aug 4 (Thursday).  Of course, the satellite may manuever before then.

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Liftoff 20:25::48.401 UTC.

Offline Rondaz

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The satellite "Kosmos-2558" was included in the catalog of the space control system.

Ministry of Defense: "Kosmos-2558" was included in the catalog of the space control system.

10:08 02.08.2022

MOSCOW, August 2 - RIA Novosti. Russian specialists have included the Kosmos-2558 military satellite, launched on August 1 from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, into the catalog of the Russian space control system, journalists were told in the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Russian Defense Ministry.

"Specialists of the Center for Outer Space Control (CKKP) accepted for escort the Kosmos-2558 spacecraft of the Russian Ministry of Defense , launched into orbit by the Soyuz-2.1v launch vehicle from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome on August 1, and entered information about the new space object into the Main Catalog space objects of the Russian Space Control System (SKKP)," the message says.

It is noted that the main catalog of space objects of the SKKP contains information about each space object and is intended for long-term storage of orbital measuring radar, optical, radio engineering and special information about space objects of artificial origin at altitudes from 120 kilometers to 50 thousand kilometers. The catalog also contains information about the orbits of objects, sufficient to predict their movement. Every day, experts process more than 60 thousand measurements to maintain this catalog.

Earlier, the Ministry of Defense reported that the Soyuz-2.1v light-class rocket was launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region at 23.25 Moscow time on Monday. Nine minutes later, the space warhead separated from the second stage of the rocket - the upper stage "Volga" with a military satellite, which received the serial number "Cosmos-2558". The device was launched into the target orbit at 00.49 Moscow time on August 2.

https://ria.ru/20220802/sputnik-1806580223.html

Offline Rondaz

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Aerospace Forces flooded the upper stage after the launch of the Cosmos-2558 satellite.

Ministry of Defense: Aerospace Forces flooded the upper stage "Volga" after the launch of the satellite "Cosmos-2558".

11:59 02.08.2022

MOSCOW, August 2 - RIA Novosti. Specialists of the Russian Aerospace Forces deorbited and flooded the Volga booster block in the Pacific Ocean after the Kosmos-2558 military satellite was put into orbit with its help, the information and mass communications department of the Russian Defense Ministry told reporters.

"Specialists of the Main Test Space Center (GICC) named after G.S. Titov of the Space Forces of the Aerospace Forces have completed operations to bring the launch unit (BV) Volga out of the target orbit of the spacecraft of the Russian Ministry of Defense and flood it in the Pacific Ocean," the statement says. in the message.

The impulses necessary for the removal and de-orbiting of the Volga were obtained by turning on its own propulsion system.

Earlier, the Ministry of Defense reported that the Soyuz-2.1v light-class rocket was launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region at 23.25 Moscow time on Monday. Nine minutes later, the space warhead separated from the second stage of the rocket - the upper stage "Volga" with a military satellite, which received the serial number "Cosmos-2558". The device was launched into the target orbit at 00.49 Moscow time on August 2.

https://ria.ru/20220802/sputnik-1806611234.html

Offline Rondaz

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Ground-based facilities of the Aerospace Forces took control of the military satellite Kosmos-2558.

Ministry of Defense: ground-based means of the Aerospace Forces took control of the military satellite Kosmos-2558.

08:45 02.08.2022

MOSCOW, August 2 - RIA Novosti. Ground facilities of the Russian Aerospace Forces took control of the Cosmos-2558 spacecraft, launched on August 1 on a Soyuz rocket from Plesetsk, journalists were told in the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Russian Defense Ministry.

The Kosmos-2558 spacecraft, launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome , was launched into the target orbit at the estimated time and accepted for control of ground-based facilities of the Aerospace Forces.

It is noted that the telemetry connection with the satellite has been established and is steadily maintained. The on-board systems of the apparatus function normally.

Earlier, the Ministry of Defense reported that the Soyuz-2.1v light-class rocket was launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region at 23.25 Moscow time on Monday. Nine minutes later, the space warhead separated from the second stage of the rocket - the upper stage "Volga" with a military satellite, which received the serial number "Cosmos-2558". The device was launched into the target orbit at 00.49 Moscow time on August 2.

https://ria.ru/20220802/sputnik-1806569735.html

Offline Rondaz

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CelesTrak has GP data for 1 object from the launch (2022-089) of a Russian military satellite atop a Soyuz-2.1v rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Aug 1 at 2025 UTC:

https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1554292061456588802

Offline Rondaz

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Interesting happenings in orbit: after a new object was cataloged separating from an American spy satellite last week, the Russian military appears to have launched its own satellite into the same orbital plane.

https://twitter.com/TGMetsFan98/status/1554272543770542082




Offline Rondaz

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Kosmos-2558 tracked by US Space Force @18thSDS in a 435 x 452 km x 97.3 deg sun-sync orbit in the 12:06 local time plane; the object in the 284 x 429 km orbit is probably the Soyuz-2-1v second stage,  with the Volga stage deorbited over the Pacific..

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1554314241909428225

Online Alter Sachse

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« Last Edit: 08/02/2022 12:13 pm by Alter Sachse »
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Offline Rondaz

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Orbital Launch no.92 of 2022

Kosmos 2558 | RSF | August 01 | 1630 ET

Russian space forces (VKS) launched the speculated surveillance🛰️ "14F150" Nivelir on top of it's medium-class launcher #Soyuz 2.1v from the #Plesetsk cosmodrome.

https://twitter.com/SpaceIntellige3/status/1554498849976324097

Offline lea.bernier

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How did you know the Soyuz 2.1v had a Volga upper stage ? Can we see it on pictures ?

Online Alter Sachse

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How did you know the Soyuz 2.1v had a Volga upper stage ? Can we see it on pictures ?
Reply #16
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Kosmos-2558 appears to be closing in on USA 326.

http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Aug-2022/0027.html

Quote
The chased and its chaser...

Footage from this evening (2 August, 22:26 and 22:56 UTC), showing USA 326 and
Kosmos 2558 passing through the Leiden sky about 30 minutes after each other:



Offline zubenelgenubi

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Belated post re: Volga upper stage disposal NOTMAR:
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Aug-2022/0008.html
Quote
281708Z JUL 22
HYDROPAC 2063/22(GEN).
SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07, DNC 29.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS FROM
    020800Z TO 060930Z AUG IN AREA BOUNDED BY:
    30-00S 175-00W, 30-00S 090-00W,
    60-00S 090-00W, 60-00S 175-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MESSAGE 061030Z AUG 22.
CANCEL THIS MSG 061030Z AUG 22.
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Offline owais.usmani

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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Kosmos-2558 had a relatively close encounter with USA 326 on August 4. This happened at 14.16 UTC in daylight on a southbound trajectory over the mid-Atlantic near 42.3 N, 25.9 W. The closest distance was about 67 km (most of it, about 64 km, in altitude). Most likely, Kosmos-2558 used the opportunity to take pictures of the US satellite. Here is an analysis of the flyby by Marco Langbroek:
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2022/08/the-flyby-of-usa-326-by-kosmos-2558-on.html


Offline B. Hendrickx

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NBC news report on the close approach of Kosmos 2558 to USA 326. James Dickinson, the Commander of US Space Command, calls it "irresponsible behavior".

https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/top-u-s-generals-take-issue-with-russian-satellite-near-u-s-orbit-145831493597

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Offline Rondaz

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Kosmos 2558, the Russian satellite stalking USA 326, appears to have done a small perigee-raising manoeuver on 10 August during the ascending node passage at ~8:23:20 UTC

https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1558056941854904320

Offline Rondaz

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Update on Kosmos-2558: as several people have pointed out there was a small orbit change on Aug 10 to counteract decay..

The satellite remains in an orbit which makes moderately close (~60 km) passes to the NRO satellite USA 326 every 5 days..

https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1558331199378145280
« Last Edit: 08/13/2022 10:16 am by Rondaz »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Kosmos-2558 continues to make flybys of USA 326 at distances of 60 to 80 km every five days. Over the past week it has been making small changes to its orbital inclination to make sure that its orbital plane doesn't drift too far away from that of USA 326. See the latest update from Marco Langbroek:
https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2022/09/kosmos-2558-keeping-its-orbit-close-to.html

If Kosmos-2558 sticks to the same mission profile as its predecessors Kosmos-2519 and 2542, it should release a small subsatellite in the not too distant future. This could potentially make even closer passes to USA 326. And if the subsatellite repeats the mission of its predecessors Kosmos-2521 and 2543, it should in turn fire what the Pentagon has described as a "high-speed projectile" and interprets as an ASAT weapon. No doubt the Pentagon is watching this mission with more than casual interest...

Offline Rondaz

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#Kosmos2558, shadowing #USA326, made a small orbit raising manoeuvre on 29 Sept near 12:00 UT and further fine-tuned its RAAN precession to match that of USA 326:

https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1576984503725092864

Offline Rondaz

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Obj. 53324 KOSMOS 2558 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 18, 2022 UTC 10h06mn ± 24h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1592269324571783168

Offline Rondaz

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Update: obj. 53324 COSMOS 2558 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 19, 2022 UTC 11h04mn ± 19h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1592848548927664128

Offline Rondaz

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Update: obj. 53324 COSMOS 2558 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 19, 2022 UTC 06h26mn ± 5h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1593608671241670656

Offline Rondaz

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Update: obj. 53324 KOSMOS 2558 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 19, 2022 UTC 09h43mn ± 5h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1593747654277750790

Offline Rondaz

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Update: obj. 53324 KOSMOS 2558 SL-4 R/B decay prediction: November 19, 2022 UTC 09h43mn ± 1h

https://twitter.com/jremis/status/1593893959985668098

Offline B. Hendrickx

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As can be seen in the attached graphs from Celestrak, Kosmos-2558 continues to regularly perform small maneuvers, which are most likely intended to make sure that its orbital plane doesn’t drift away from that of USA 326, allowing it to make regular close passes to the US reconnaissance satellite. The latest maneuver took place earlier this month.

One big difference between Kosmos-2558 and its two predecessors (Kosmos-2519 and 2542) is that 5.5 months into its mission, it has not yet deployed a subsatellite. Kosmos-2519 and Kosmos-2542 released their subsatellites (Kosmos-2521 and Kosmos-2543) about two months and two weeks after launch respectively. Both subsatellites later fired what seem to have been high-speed projectiles when flying close to other Russian satellites.

The three most obvious explanations are that Kosmos-2558 does not carry a subsatellite, that the deployment failed for some reason (fairly unlikely) or that it is yet to be deployed. Another possibility is that it has been deployed, but is stealthy and has therefore not been spotted by US tracking assets. One of the known objectives of the Nivelir project was to outfit satellites with a radar absorbing coating. CNIIHM, the prime contractor for Nivelir, signed a contract for this with a company called NII Ferrit-Domen back in November 2016 (under the name Nivelir-RP). I wrote about this in the thread on the first Nivelir mission several years ago:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43064.320
(see Reply 325)

Measures may also have been taken to make it difficult to spot the subsatellite with optical tracking systems. In fact, optical stealth technology may already have been tested by Kosmos-2536 (possibly also part of Nivelir), which was involved in rendezvous experiments with Kosmos-2535 in 2019-2020, but (unlike Kosmos-2535) was very difficult and sometimes impossible to see through telescopes used by amateur satellite observers.

If such a stealthy subsatellite has indeed been deployed, it does not seem to be transmitting at 2280 MHz, a frequency used by the earlier subsatellites to downlink telemetry. A search by European radio amateurs has turned up nothing on this frequency in the orbital plane of Kosmos-2558. However, a stealthy satellite would, of course, not be likely to transmit on a predictable frequency.   

 

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