Poll

China’s Tianwen-3
NASA/ESA Mars Sample Return
SpaceX Starship
Some other mission (name it in the comments)

Author Topic: Who will return the first sample from Mars  (Read 2801 times)

Offline Arb

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 553
  • London
  • Liked: 514
  • Likes Given: 433
Who will return the first sample from Mars
« on: 06/21/2022 06:46 pm »
Following China’s recent announcement that it intends to return Mars samples in 2031, who does the forum think will be the first?

More information:
Tianwen-3 - https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56585.0
Mars Sample Return - https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47637.200
« Last Edit: 06/21/2022 06:47 pm by Arb »

Offline laszlo

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 920
  • Liked: 1235
  • Likes Given: 530
Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #1 on: 06/21/2022 11:01 pm »
This has already occurred naturally at least 277 times so all the named poll candidates have already been beaten.

Offline crandles57

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 614
  • Sychdyn
  • Liked: 431
  • Likes Given: 136
Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #2 on: 06/22/2022 11:54 am »
This has already occurred naturally at least 277 times so all the named poll candidates have already been beaten.

Question starts with "Who" so AFAICS either you think the answer is God or you are wrong. But perhaps I am missing something?

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #3 on: 06/22/2022 02:28 pm »
This has already occurred naturally at least 277 times so all the named poll candidates have already been beaten.

Question starts with "Who" so AFAICS either you think the answer is God or you are wrong. But perhaps I am missing something?

Mars meteorites?

BTW for those voting Starship: we are only 6 years away from the 2028 launch window. IMHO it is certainly plausible for a Starship to fly towards Mars, or even land there on a robotic precursor mission (and that's pushing it, I'll have more confidence if Starship reaches Earth orbit twice within 2022). But there will have to be preliminary works done in house already to design and implement a way to collect samples, and useful samples at that (which means additional scientific equipment to scout the landing site, if not some kind of rover or movable robots), plus mechanism for keeping the samples uncontaminated till back on Earth.

Unless of course people here thinks that Starship will carry people to Mars by 2028. That's perhaps too close to now to happen alas.

This is not counting the difficulties of getting a Starship back on Earth by then.
So I would like to ask why do you think Starship will get there to collect samples earliest.
« Last Edit: 06/22/2022 02:36 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery. Current Priority: Chasing the Chinese Spaceflight Wonder Egg & A Certain Chinese Mars Rover

Offline dglow

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2067
  • Liked: 2295
  • Likes Given: 4433
Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #4 on: 06/22/2022 03:22 pm »
But there will have to be preliminary works done in house already to design and implement a way to collect samples, and useful samples at that (which means additional scientific equipment to scout the landing site, if not some kind of rover or movable robots), plus mechanism for keeping the samples uncontaminated till back on Earth.

The poll says nothing about the quality of the first sample. This is first to return a piece of the red planet, plain and simple.

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5490
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1809
  • Likes Given: 1302
Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #5 on: 06/22/2022 03:26 pm »
<snip>
BTW for those voting Starship: we are only 6 years away from the 2028 launch window. IMHO it is certainly plausible for a Starship to fly towards Mars, or even land there on a robotic precursor mission (and that's pushing it, I'll have more confidence if Starship reaches Earth orbit twice within 2022). But there will have to be preliminary works done in house already to design and implement a way to collect samples, and useful samples at that (which means additional scientific equipment to scout the landing site, if not some kind of rover or movable robots), plus mechanism for keeping the samples uncontaminated till back on Earth.

Unless of course people here thinks that Starship will carry people to Mars by 2028. That's perhaps too close to now to happen alas.

This is not counting the difficulties of getting a Starship back on Earth by then.
So I would like to ask why do you think Starship will get there to collect samples earliest.
There is no need to return the Starship back to Earth. A separate return vehicle could be mounted on the Starship to return a capsule back to Earth.

The person building the Starship is running a full self driving development program for his electric car side business. Should be possible to use the technology from the FSD development  and the electric car business to make some kind of semi-autonomous scout rover for Mars in multiples.

Also the 2028 launch date is one window too pessimistic for a flock of Starships going to Mars, IMO. Of course not likely all the early Mars bound Starship will landed intact on Mars.

Offline crandles57

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 614
  • Sychdyn
  • Liked: 431
  • Likes Given: 136
Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #6 on: 06/22/2022 03:42 pm »

There is no need to return the Starship back to Earth. A separate return vehicle could be mounted on the Starship to return a capsule back to Earth.

The person building the Starship is running a full self driving development program for his electric car side business. Should be possible to use the technology from the FSD development  and the electric car business to make some kind of semi-autonomous scout rover for Mars in multiples.

Also the 2028 launch date is one window too pessimistic for a flock of Starships going to Mars, IMO. Of course not likely all the early Mars bound Starship will landed intact on Mars.

I was just thinking perhaps the options could perhaps be expanded to include

Tianwen-3
Perseverance samples by Mars sample return
Perseverance samples with Starship return
Starship there and back
Starship going there with some other return vehicle
Some other mission

Offline su27k

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6414
  • Liked: 9100
  • Likes Given: 885
Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #7 on: 06/22/2022 05:05 pm »
BTW for those voting Starship: we are only 6 years away from the 2028 launch window. IMHO it is certainly plausible for a Starship to fly towards Mars, or even land there on a robotic precursor mission (and that's pushing it, I'll have more confidence if Starship reaches Earth orbit twice within 2022). But there will have to be preliminary works done in house already to design and implement a way to collect samples, and useful samples at that (which means additional scientific equipment to scout the landing site, if not some kind of rover or movable robots), plus mechanism for keeping the samples uncontaminated till back on Earth.

Unless of course people here thinks that Starship will carry people to Mars by 2028. That's perhaps too close to now to happen alas.

This is not counting the difficulties of getting a Starship back on Earth by then.
So I would like to ask why do you think Starship will get there to collect samples earliest.

It requires some handwaving, but not too much:
1. Ideally they can start launching to Mars in 2024 window, this would be one way trip, mainly engineering tests. But to be conservative, we can assume this is delayed to 2026 window.
2. 2028 window they'll test round way trip, preparing for crewed mission in 2031 window. I think it's highly likely that any crewed mission will be a joint NASA-SpaceX mission, and NASA's risk aversion means they'll want return trip demonstrated.
3. The return trip is not too hard, just need more refueling, probably at LMO. Land with enough propellant to return to LMO, then meet up with a tanker at LMO to fuel up for TEI.
4. Since it's going to be a joint mission, NASA can help with the scientific instruments. And SpaceX already said one of the objectives of unmanned landing is to prospect the site for future crewed missions, so scientific instruments and some kind of rover is mandatory.
5. If NASA wants uncontaminated samples they can develop ways to do that, with unlimited mass budget it should be relatively easy. SpaceX doesn't care about biological contamination, the returned sample would be valuable for non-astrobiological science and engineering study even if it's contaminated.

Offline philw1776

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1836
  • Seacoast NH
  • Liked: 1842
  • Likes Given: 983
Re: Who will return the first sample from Mars
« Reply #8 on: 06/28/2022 09:40 pm »
NASA Mars Sample & Return will be the loser. Sticker shock will hit Congress and funding will be less than needed for expeditious schedule. If China is serious, 2031 might win it because there are no plans for a Starship sample & return.
FULL SEND!!!!

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1