NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services: RFI for Round 2

[kevinof]

SNC doesn't have a crew capable spacecraft - it's only cargo and I suspect adding in the systems to make it so and pass muster with NASA would be a lot of $$$. Far as I know NASA is not proposing to fund any new development - all they want is to buy rides on certified vehicles.

So you think SNC is going to cover the cost of development of their vehicle to NASA's standards?

In case it wasn't obvious, I really like what NASA is trying to do with this next round. I really like that NASA is encouraging certification of new systems. Phil McAlister has been doing an excellent job.

I don't think it's bad or anything, but it's not going to matter, we'll just see Dragon and Starliner selected again.  I do think it is good to reinforce the process/expectation for the future, though.

I wouldn't be surprised if a third spacecraft is added. Given that there is no minimum amount of missions, it wouldn't be a huge risks for NASA to add a provider. I guess that it depends on how much money SNC, Blue or SpaceX with Starship would ask NASA for certifying their systems.

[abaddon]

SNC doesn't have a crew capable spacecraft - it's only cargo

SNC doesn't actually have a cargo capable spacecraft (yet).

I suspect adding in the systems to make it so and pass muster with NASA would be a lot of $$$

Absolutely, this is hard and expensive.  There's no reason to think SNC could magically do this cheaper than SpaceX and Boeing.

Far as I know NASA is not proposing to fund any new development

Based on what @yg1968 has said it seems like NASA is considering offering development funds.  I am extremely skeptical that the kind of development funds (and schedule) that would be required to develop a third certified crew provider are going to be on the table, not even close.  Which is why I think we will see more Dragon and Starliner in the next contract, and nothing else, because any funds LESS than what are necessary won't result in an available-by date of 2027.

[soltasto]

From this RFI it seems pretty clear that development isn't intended for this round. The only paragraph mentioning what NASA would purchase/fund is this one:

NASA is considering acquisition of Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services from one or more U.S. providers through commercial services contracts. Depending on mission requirements, NASA may purchase single seats, multiple seats within one mission, or seats for an entire mission.  NASA is seeking pertinent information from industry which may be used to formulate one or more solicitations related to the Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services effort.

While they are not explicitly prohibiting funding for development (so that companies may still propose that) what they really want are seats towards the ISS.

IMO what could happen is Boeing or another company proposing the purchase of Soyuz seats and the re-selling of them to NASA (Like it has already happened) as a backup measure.

What may also happen is Axiom selling seats from their missions. I don't really see the use case but NASA may like having the capability available.

[Kiwi53]

In case it wasn't obvious, I really like what NASA is trying to do with this next round. I really like that NASA is encouraging certification of new systems. Phil McAlister has been doing an excellent job.

I don't think it's bad or anything, but it's not going to matter, we'll just see Dragon and Starliner selected again.  I do think it is good to reinforce the process/expectation for the future, though.

Why would Boeing bid Starliner when this gets to RFP stage?
There are no more Atlas-V launchers so they'd have to crew-qualify Vulcan, and since they're not a new entrant NASA wouldn't be funding this
Their Service Module is expendable so makes their cost base inevitably much larger than SpaceX's
There must be a perceived risk that NASA would disqualify their bid on grounds of demonstrated management weaknesses under the existing contract: this would be reputationally devastating
They could easily come third in the competition evaluation and get no launches

Maybe Boeing would come to a point of recognising they'd be throwing good money after bad.

[yg1968]

From this RFI it seems pretty clear that development isn't intended for this round.

NASA is asking what kind of resources the companies would need in order to certify their spacecrafts by 2027 which makes me believe that NASA is considering funding certification activities.

Information about the maturity of crew transportation systems that are still under design and/or development.  Specifically, identify: the level of maturity of the crew transportation system (e.g., how much testing has been performed, what type of testing remains, etc.); the remaining activities planned to complete the system to be compliant with NASA requirements; and, generally, the resources required to mature the system so that a NASA certification could be accomplished no later than 2027. Details on whether Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services can be considered “commercial services,” as defined by FAR Part 2.

 

[yg1968]

SNC doesn't have a crew capable spacecraft - it's only cargo

SNC doesn't actually have a cargo capable spacecraft (yet).

I suspect adding in the systems to make it so and pass muster with NASA would be a lot of $$$

Absolutely, this is hard and expensive.  There's no reason to think SNC could magically do this cheaper than SpaceX and Boeing.

Far as I know NASA is not proposing to fund any new development

Based on what @yg1968 has said it seems like NASA is considering offering development funds.  I am extremely skeptical that the kind of development funds (and schedule) that would be required to develop a third certified crew provider are going to be on the table, not even close.  Which is why I think we will see more Dragon and Starliner in the next contract, and nothing else, because any funds LESS than what are necessary won't result in an available-by date of 2027.

In hindsight, I should have used the word funding for certification activities, instead of funding the development of the spacecraft.

[abaddon]

In case it wasn't obvious, I really like what NASA is trying to do with this next round. I really like that NASA is encouraging certification of new systems. Phil McAlister has been doing an excellent job.

I don't think it's bad or anything, but it's not going to matter, we'll just see Dragon and Starliner selected again.  I do think it is good to reinforce the process/expectation for the future, though.

Why would Boeing bid Starliner when this gets to RFP stage?

NASA wants redundancy.  Congress wants Boeing.  They will be awarded flights, sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

[yg1968]

In case it wasn't obvious, I really like what NASA is trying to do with this next round. I really like that NASA is encouraging certification of new systems. Phil McAlister has been doing an excellent job.

I don't think it's bad or anything, but it's not going to matter, we'll just see Dragon and Starliner selected again.  I do think it is good to reinforce the process/expectation for the future, though.

Why would Boeing bid Starliner when this gets to RFP stage?
There are no more Atlas-V launchers so they'd have to crew-qualify Vulcan, and since they're not a new entrant NASA wouldn't be funding this
Their Service Module is expendable so makes their cost base inevitably much larger than SpaceX's
There must be a perceived risk that NASA would disqualify their bid on grounds of demonstrated management weaknesses under the existing contract: this would be reputationally devastating
They could easily come third in the competition evaluation and get no launches

Maybe Boeing would come to a point of recognising they'd be throwing good money after bad.

They don't need to be a new entrant. Funding for certification would likely be available to a commercial space system as a whole including the LV.

[yg1968]

NASA starts process to acquire more commercial crew missions:
https://spacenews.com/nasa-starts-process-to-acquire-more-commercial-crew-missions/

[Comga]

The maximum potential number of Post Certification Missions which may be ordered under this contract is six (6).

Way back I wondered if NASA was looking to add to the SpaceX contract the number of missions that they have flown by the time that Boeing gets Starliner certified.
That way they would both have six under contract and be able to alternate, keeping the desired “disparate redundancy“ active.
This limit of six is compatible with that.

[Comga]

In case it wasn't obvious, I really like what NASA is trying to do with this next round. I really like that NASA is encouraging certification of new systems. Phil McAlister has been doing an excellent job.

On the other hand, they could use this as a way of giving more money to Boeing, or picking up the tab for crew rating Vulcan.
If the latter was paired with some money to SNC it could be portrayed as “spacecraft non-specific”.
This seems very likely.

However, giving money to Blue is possible, but would be surprising and disappointing.  Rewarding failure and subsidizing the world’s (second) richest man who is blocking them with a sore-loser lawsuit.

[AU1.52]

Also the wording of the RFP - "one or more" gives NASA the option of picking only one partner; unlikely but possible. SpaceX.

[king1999]

NASA wants redundancy.  Congress wants Boeing.  They will be awarded flights, sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

Boeing's existing 6 flights can be the redundancy NASA needed for the next 5 years. Besides, no more Atlas V available for more Starliner flights. They need to certify Vulcan or Falcon 9 for Starliner.

[ThomasGadd]

NASA wants redundancy.  Congress wants Boeing.  They will be awarded flights, sure as the sun rises in the east and sets in the west.

Boeing's existing 6 flights can be the redundancy NASA needed for the next 5 years. Besides, no more Atlas V available for more Starliner flights. They need to certify Vulcan or Falcon 9 for Starliner.

NASA want's to alternate between providers for redundancy. 
Once Starliner is flying NASA wants Dragon to continue. 
There are hooks in the contacts to do this. 
NASA already said they are looking at it. 
I wonder how much SpaceX will charge it's future flights? 

[soltasto]

I kinda expect this contract to work out like CLPS is working right now.

Choose as many companies as possible that fit within the budget (might as well be just SpaceX and Boeing) and then order missions as needed (unlike the first round where both SpaceX and Boeing were guaranteed a minimum and a maximum amount of missions).

[ThomasGadd]

I kinda expect this contract to work out like CLPS is working right now.

Choose as many companies as possible that fit within the budget (might as well be just SpaceX and Boeing) and then order missions as needed (unlike the first round where both SpaceX and Boeing were guaranteed a minimum and a maximum amount of missions).

There's already language for extensions they don't want to re-compete that.  They always planned another round of crew just they did with cargo.  These are two different things one is an extension for Dragon the Starliner flights NASA already bought, the other is for new services. 

[jketch]

I kinda expect this contract to work out like CLPS is working right now.

Choose as many companies as possible that fit within the budget (might as well be just SpaceX and Boeing) and then order missions as needed (unlike the first round where both SpaceX and Boeing were guaranteed a minimum and a maximum amount of missions).

The problem is that, compared to unmanned landers, crewed capsules require a lot of development and certification work. Even SpaceX got $1.3 billion for development and certification alone for Dragon 2. That's not going to be workable unless multiple missions are guaranteed.

[soltasto]

I kinda expect this contract to work out like CLPS is working right now.

Choose as many companies as possible that fit within the budget (might as well be just SpaceX and Boeing) and then order missions as needed (unlike the first round where both SpaceX and Boeing were guaranteed a minimum and a maximum amount of missions).

The problem is that, compared to unmanned landers, crewed capsules require a lot of development and certification work. Even SpaceX got $1.3 billion for development and certification alone for Dragon 2. That's not going to be workable unless multiple missions are guaranteed.

The problem is that NASA doesn't know what they will actually need in 2027, and a new entrant might begin operational missions in that timeframe. Committing to X missions that may happen in 7 or 8 years from now doesn't look optimal to me.
There could be like 2 guaranteed development missions(like for SpaceX and Boeing) so that at the end of the development contract all the development expenses are payed and only then flights should be awarded on an as-needed basis.

[joek]

There's already language for extensions they don't want to re-compete that.  They always planned another round of crew just they did with cargo.  These are two different things one is an extension for Dragon the Starliner flights NASA already bought, the other is for new services.

Not sure what you mean by "There's already language for extensions..."? Can't find anything in the contract to suggest that, and a couple items which indicate otherwise. In the case where missions have been ordered (as in task orders issued), there is an automatic extension, so no need to change anything for those. Otherwise, per Steve Stich's comment: "We’re in the process of going through those contract actions and figuring out how to add additional flights, likely to both contracts, at some point".

[joek]

The problem is that NASA doesn't know what they will actually need in 2027, and a new entrant might begin operational missions in that timeframe. Committing to X missions that may happen in 7 or 8 years from now doesn't look optimal to me.
There could be like 2 guaranteed development missions(like for SpaceX and Boeing) so that at the end of the development contract all the development expenses are payed and only then flights should be awarded on an as-needed basis.

Unless something drastic changes with the ISS, NASA should have a very good idea of what they will need. In nay case, if the CCtCap contract model is followed, the operational missions (post-DDTE or PCM's) are not actually authorized until certain milestones are reached. Also, there were no guaranteed development missions under CCtCap; those were requirements to reach certification prior to operational flights. The two "guaranteed" missions are operational; but again, not guaranteed unless Boeing and SpaceX completed certification.