Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3  (Read 252306 times)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #680 on: 06/01/2022 08:10 pm »
Cross-post:

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1532091055251804161

Quote
In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

twitter.com/nasaprocurement/status/1532067026147364865

Quote
Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…
« Last Edit: 06/01/2022 08:33 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #681 on: 06/01/2022 08:33 pm »
Thomas is confused, this is for 5 more missions. So NASA is adding 8 missions in total (3 in the first sole-source solicitation and 5 more in the second one). This is for crew Dragon rides until 2030.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55039.msg2317261#msg2317261
« Last Edit: 06/01/2022 08:40 pm by yg1968 »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #682 on: 06/01/2022 08:38 pm »
Cross-post:

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1532091055251804161

Quote
In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

twitter.com/nasaprocurement/status/1532067026147364865

Quote
Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…


The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

This award says it runs to 2030. I think these are 5 additonal flights on top of the 3 previously awarded. it might indicate that SpaceX could be the sole crew rotation provider for the ISS in 2029 / 2030.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #683 on: 06/01/2022 08:41 pm »
In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

Quote
Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…
I'm not an expert at decoding contracts, but as I recall the February announcement did not "award" any missions. It extended the number of "optional" missions from four to seven, on top of the two firm missions that were part of the original CTTCap. By contrast, this announcement seems to say that NASA is "awarding" five missions on top of the four missions that have already been awarded and flown.
in summary:
   original contract:   2 awarded, four optional
   February 2022:     2 awarded, seven optional    (extension by 3 optional)
   June 2022:            4 already flown, five awarded.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2022 12:34 am by zubenelgenubi »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #684 on: 06/01/2022 08:52 pm »
No, the 3 missions were awarded earlier this year per the NASA press release. The announcement of today is a notice of intent but it would be surprising if it doesn't result in 5 more missions being awarded to SpaceX. So SpaceX gets 14 post-certification missions.
« Last Edit: 06/01/2022 08:59 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #685 on: 06/01/2022 08:59 pm »
The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

The starting date of the February contract was in 2023 (if needed). But if you look at the current schedule, SpaceX-6 would be in 2023. Overall, I get an extra mission for SpaceX in 2023 (or in 2029 if Boeing-1 is ready in 2023) but other than that, it's one per year for SpaceX.

2023 SpaceX-6 and 7
2024 SpaceX-8 and Boeing-1
2025 SpaceX-9 and Boeing-2
2026 SpaceX-10 and Boeing-3
2027 SpaceX-11 and Boeing-4
2028 SpaceX-12 and Boeing-5
2029- SpaceX-13 and Boeing-6
2030- SpaceX-14 and perhaps one other mission to be awarded.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commercial_Crew_Program
« Last Edit: 06/02/2022 12:56 am by yg1968 »


Offline hektor

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #687 on: 06/02/2022 01:23 pm »
With only four Crew Dragon built, and taking into account the additional flights (4 for Axiom, two for Polaris and 1 for Inspiration 4) does that mean that they will exceed five flights / Dragon.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #688 on: 06/02/2022 02:10 pm »
With only four Crew Dragon built, and taking into account the additional flights (4 for Axiom, two for Polaris and 1 for Inspiration 4) does that mean that they will exceed five flights / Dragon.
14 + 4 +1 =19, but we must add one for demo-2. Demo-1 flew on an early capsule that was later accidentally destroyed, so it does not count against the current fleet. Thus, we have 20 flights and four capsules, so technically we get 5 flights/capsule, but that leaves no margin for new sales, missions to Axiom-1, or loss of a capsule.

My guess: SpaceX plans to get Starship crew-qualified at least for all non-ISS missions so it can retire Dragon and Falcon 9. Thus, they will avoid extending Dragon past these 20 missions. They will even make an effort to somehow use Starship to replace Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon for CCP and CRS flights to the ISS so they can retire F9 and Dragon as early as is feasible. Maintaining the Dragon and Falcon 9 infrastructure (factory, fleet, refurbishment,...) to support only a few missions per year is not cost-effective.

Offline hektor

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #689 on: 06/02/2022 02:32 pm »
Why don't you take into account the two Polaris missions with Dragon (Polaris Dawn and the second one). That makes 22.

Or do you consider that there will only be 2 Axiom flights and 2 Polaris flights ?
« Last Edit: 06/02/2022 02:39 pm by hektor »

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #690 on: 06/02/2022 02:42 pm »
Why don't you take into account the two Polaris missions with Dragon (Polaris Dawn and the second one). That makes 22.
Because I messed it up and didn't check my work? OK we have 22 total missions for the four capsules.

My guess: If they cannot get Starship crew-qualified by 2028 and shift two non-ISS Crew Dragon missions to Starship, then they will agree with NASA to fly two of the capsules a sixth time rather than building a new one.

Offline JayWee

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #691 on: 06/02/2022 02:46 pm »
Isn't it also likely there will be more Axiom flights? Especially once they a) add another ISS module b) add another ISS docking port.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #692 on: 06/02/2022 02:51 pm »
...... The obvious solution here is that the Crew Dragon capsules will fly more than 5 times each.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #693 on: 06/02/2022 02:56 pm »
Cross-post:

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1532091055251804161

Quote
In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

twitter.com/nasaprocurement/status/1532067026147364865

Quote
Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…


The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

This award says it runs to 2030. I think these are 5 additonal flights on top of the 3 previously awarded. it might indicate that SpaceX could be the sole crew rotation provider for the ISS in 2029 / 2030.
That’s not what the document says.  The 5 additional missions is to backfill for the delays of Starliner that has caused SpaceX to have to launch more missions earlier.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #694 on: 06/02/2022 07:30 pm »
Cross-post:

*snip tweet*

Quote
In February, NASA announced that it had awarded SpaceX 3 additional Crew Dragon missions to the ISS. However, this notice says that SpaceX has been awarded 5 additional missions:

*snip tweet*
Quote
Kennedy Space Center has a special notice regarding 'Notice Of Intent (noi) To Issue A Sole Source Modification – NASA Commercial Crew Space Transportation Services'. See: sam.gov/opp/62c5cba7a9…


The February award stipulates the contract runs through March 31, 2028.

This award says it runs to 2030. I think these are 5 additonal flights on top of the 3 previously awarded. it might indicate that SpaceX could be the sole crew rotation provider for the ISS in 2029 / 2030.
That’s not what the document says.  The 5 additional missions is to backfill for the delays of Starliner that has caused SpaceX to have to launch more missions earlier.

Yes, yg1968 already clarified that here:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49156.msg2373573#msg2373573
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #695 on: 06/02/2022 09:14 pm »
twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1532469243530338320

Quote
NASA's announcement of additional Crew Dragon seat purchases is a bigger deal than I initially realized. It looks like NASA has now bought the remainder of seats needed to keep the International Space Station fully crewed into 2030.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1532469850425155593

Quote
Also, if you're keeping score at home, it appears probable that SpaceX will end up flying 14 crewed ISS missions for NASA, and Boeing 6. This does not include private missions to the station, such as for Axiom Space. Those will also likely all fly on Dragon.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/nasa-just-bought-all-the-seats-needed-for-space-station-crews-into-2030/

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #696 on: 06/02/2022 11:06 pm »
NASA to Purchase Additional Commercial Crew Missions:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2022/06/01/nasa-to-purchase-additional-commercial-crew-missions/

Quote from: NASA
The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking additional contract modifications in the future for additional transportation services as needed.
« Last Edit: 06/02/2022 11:07 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #697 on: 06/02/2022 11:10 pm »
NASA to buy five additional Crew Dragon flights:
https://spacenews.com/nasa-to-buy-five-additional-crew-dragon-flights/

Offline yg1968

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Offline abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #699 on: 07/15/2022 02:25 pm »
Presumably this seat arrangement only applies to Dragon and Soyuz, given the lack of track record and even certification of Starliner at this point.  It took two demo flights and three and a half missions, plus some unknown number of Cargo V2 missions with some similarity (e.g. parachutes) before Russia agreed to fly on Crew Dragon.  If the same kind of track record is required for Starliner it almost doesn't seem worth the effort given the low number of planned flights.

Not having seat swaps on alternating flights (once Starliner is certified by NASA and in rotation) seems non-optimal but unavoidable to me.
« Last Edit: 07/15/2022 02:27 pm by abaddon »

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